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Property Market 2020

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    #5042
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,126 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    And they were all queuing up for BTL before this were they?

    No, but house prices werent dropping by the 30-50% posters on this thread are indicating....isnt that the point?


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    #5043
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,126 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Plenty of land inside and around the m50

    For houses?
    Where are you seeing this?


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    #5044
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,977 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    GreeBo wrote: »
    For houses?
    Where are you seeing this?

    Oh, I don't know, how about the Farm bordering DCU and some of those large green bits on the right? I'd mention the massive swathes of golf courses but people got upset last time. Sacred cows or something.

    DCU-Farm.jpg


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    #5045
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    There was 1700 properties to rent in Dublin city exactly a month ago. Now it’s 2031. I’ll be keeping an eye on that number.


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    #5046
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,233 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    TSQ wrote: »
    My friend in Toronto moved house in her 50’s with a 30 year mortgage. She had a big deposit, maybe as much as 60%, from selling her old house, but still has hefty repayments as she bought bigger and in a better neighbourhood. Another friend in San Francisco bought her first house in her late 40’s on what appears to be a rolling 30 year mortgage, which means she can keep extending the term each time she remortgages (and I will admit, I am not sure how this works...I think you just keep going till the principal is paid off). She has also been able to remortgage to take advantage of better interest rates. Both friends are currently or will be paying off the mortgage well into their retirement. They would rather be mortgage free, who wouldn't, but have the security of substantial equity built up and the option to downsize if the repayments get too difficult on retirement income. Also, in SF and Toronto rents in the past 10 years have skyrocketed. They are paying less than if they had to rent, and have security of tenure. If they die before the mortgage is paid off, the bank has first claim on the proceeds of a sale. As for leaving a house to the kids, ff’s sake.
    Here, in contrast, if you dont have cash and dont manage to buy a home, or if you want to upgrade, by your late 40’s or 50’s your are screwed, no matter if you have a big deposit. In other areas of business this would be called age discrimination.




    Standard mortgages in the US tend to be 30 year fixed. You can of course also go for a ARM but those tend to be shorter, and you might not be paying off much of the principal.



    If you are say 5 years into a 30 year mortgage paying say 4% and rates have dropped, or your LTV has changed or your credit rating is higher, and you would now qualify for a rate of 3% then you probably just get a new mortgage (30 years), the proceeds of which pay the outstanding on the old mortgage.


    I think that it happens too when you move house. You don't "transfer" the mortgage. You get a mortgage on the new house and use the proceeds of that to pay off the mortgage on the old house.


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    #5047
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,233 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Worth re-mentioning Brexit and the likelihood of a further extension, with the wait for a fallout from the whole affair feeling like we're waiting for Godot at this stage. Brexit was cited as a probably incorrect reason for the price growth slowdown last year at the expense of focusing on affordability issues so I wouldn't be surprised to see it used as another shield to deflect from property market woes caused by affordability issues once the covid19 crisis subsides.

    There was an article in the Business Post at the weekend and I didn't see the topic reported elsewhere. https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/farmers-and-developers-line-up-to-oppose-land-price-cap-plan-27a9b5c9

    Some quotes;


    Developers already own vast swathes of undeveloped land. What is being proposed is effectively a land grab so that the same wealthy developers (or powerful corporations - Thomas Reid's case anyone?) can seize land and continue to sit on it and develop it later at their leisure.


    Before they go seizing more land they need to start enforcing vacant site taxes on land currently sitting idle.


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    #5048
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    pearcider wrote: »
    There was 1700 properties to rent in Dublin city exactly a month ago. Now it’s 2031. I’ll be keeping an eye on that number.

    What’s your point? City is in lockdown in case you hadn’t noticed so kind of makes letting and renting difficult. . Or is this the sign the market is imploding? Will my 185% reduction in prices now happen? People will be getting paid to rent apartments?


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    #5049
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,233 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Oh, I don't know, how about the Farm bordering DCU and some of those large green bits on the right? I'd mention the massive swathes of golf courses but people got upset last time. Sacred cows or something.

    DCU-Farm.jpg


    Another 50 acres there in Castleknock.


    https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/dairy/why-the-guinness-clan-has-called-time-on-dairying-38017361.html


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    #5050
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    Another 50 acres there in Castleknock.

    ....

    ...
    ...Trying to get the milk lorry up here can be a nightmare in the mornings because the road is like a car park with all the traffic...

    Sounds the perfect place for some high density housing. Lets make it an actual car park.

    Shocking numbers of areas still green in the city. Back in the day we had smog and were thankful for it.


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    #5051
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Hubertj wrote: »
    What’s your point? City is in lockdown in case you hadn’t noticed so kind of makes letting and renting difficult. . Or is this the sign the market is imploding? Will my 185% reduction in prices now happen? People will be getting paid to rent apartments?

    More property to rent means lower rents. Lower rents mean lower property prices. Off course one swallow does not make a spring.


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    #5052
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,233 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    beauf wrote: »
    ...

    Sounds the perfect place for some high density housing. Lets make it an actual car park.

    Shocking numbers of areas still green in the city. Back in the day we had smog and were thankful for it.


    Hi. That's lovely. But does not make my link incorrect.

    One poster asked where there was land inside the M50.
    Another responded pointing out the fields off Griffith Avenue at the back of DCU (and also the ones around the Archbishops house).
    I added that there are fields used for agriculture in Castleknock. Owned by the some descendants of the Guinness family.

    They are real. They are there. It's not a conspiracy. They are there whether there is smog or not. What you think should be done with them is an entirely different topic. Your preference one way or the other does make them not be there. It is not some kind of Scrodinger's "field" where they only exist when you measure or acknowledge them.

    I was only answering the posters question as to examples of locations of such land.


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    #5053
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    pearcider wrote: »
    More property to rent means lower rents. Lower rents mean lower property prices. Off course one swallow does not make a spring.

    And it has nothing to do with people not being able to view or rent apartments or that people can’t move to Ireland to take up jobs and look for accommodation? Or has something to do with some short term let’s coming or market? You’re a big fan of drawing your own conclusions. I agre rents will fall but you’re trying to drive your own agenda... on boards... for whatever good that will do... all this bull and bear toss...


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    #5054
    kevinc565
    Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭kevinc565


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    No it depends on the College. Some take 4 to complete an arts degree some take only 3. Then 2 years for Masters in Education. Max 6 . Like i Said there is a few that do PP teaching in 4 years mainly in specialist subjects, Home Economics, Wood Technology and construction studies and Engineering Technology. Then there are a few that do PP teaching in 4 years but numbers are limited.

    All BS though, the course. They used to do a Higher diploma in Education ( HDipEd or Hdip for short) which could be done in a year. Trinity now do this in 18 months. :(:(Are the teachers any better? No. Most Arts degrees are 3 years. So it used to take 4 years to qualify but nowadays closer to 5.


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    #5055
    Das Reich
    Registered Users Posts: 736 ✭✭✭Das Reich


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Oh, I don't know, how about the Farm bordering DCU and some of those large green bits on the right? I'd mention the massive swathes of golf courses but people got upset last time. Sacred cows or something.

    DCU-Farm.jpg

    What's the point of waste agricultural land to build few sprawling houses on them instead of buildings with apartments?


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    #5056
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,977 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Das Reich wrote: »
    What's the point of waste agricultural land to build few sprawling houses on them instead of buildings with apartments?

    I was hoping this little pandemic would shut up the high density housing advocates for a while. Should have known better. :rolleyes:

    Some people never learn.


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    #5057
    Dwarf.Shortage
    Registered Users Posts: 1,257 ✭✭✭Dwarf.Shortage


    cnocbui wrote: »
    I was hoping this little pandemic would shut up the high density housing advocates for a while. Should have known better. :rolleyes:

    Some people never learn.

    We 100% still need a higher average density of housing in Dublin.


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    #5058
    con___manx1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭con___manx1


    I think it would be crazy to buy now. If the lockdown lasts 3 months the unemployment rate could reach 24 percent when's it over. That's statistics I heard on the radio yesterday on my way to work.
    The last recession we had a high of 16 percent unemployment.
    I think house prices will drop dramatically in the next year.
    There will be much less demand if the unemployment reaches that level.


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    #5059
    Spencer Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 268 ✭✭Spencer Brown


    con___manx1 wrote: »
    I think it would be crazy to buy now. If the lockdown lasts 3 months the unemployment rate could reach 24 percent when's it over. That's statistics I heard on the radio yesterday on my way to work.
    The last recession we had a high of 16 percent unemployment.
    I think house prices will drop dramatically in the next year.
    There will be much less demand if the unemployment reaches that level.

    You seem to be ignoring the fact that demand already well outstrips supply. There will be plenty of demand to keep prices up in most areas.


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    #5060
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Hubertj wrote: »
    And it has nothing to do with people not being able to view or rent apartments or that people can’t move to Ireland to take up jobs and look for accommodation? Or has something to do with some short term let’s coming or market? You’re a big fan of drawing your own conclusions. I agre rents will fall but you’re trying to drive your own agenda... on boards... for whatever good that will do... all this bull and bear toss...

    My only agenda is the truth. I know for a fact my posts in the 2019 thread put off several people from purchasing at what was clearly the top of the market because they PMed me as such. It wasn’t just the rental market that was indicating the bull run was at an end. More importantly and probably unknown to the casual observer the international credit markets were flashing red as far back as the summer that something was amiss (the so called repocalypse).

    So even without the Wuhan virus, it was almost certain that the property market was going into a significant downturn. If I can prevent a young person from going into a big debt to the banks, then I’m happy with that.


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    #5061
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,649 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    con___manx1 wrote: »
    I think house prices will drop dramatically in the next year.
    No doubt some properties will show up with a 30% or so discount but they will be the dregs of the market. Decent places will mostly disappear. Pretty much why I'm going sale agreed this week.


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    #5062
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    pearcider wrote: »
    My only agenda is the truth. I know for a fact my posts in the 2019 thread put off several people from purchasing at what was clearly the top of the market because they PMed me as such. It wasn’t just the rental market that was indicating the bull run was at an end. More importantly and probably unknown to the casual observer the international credit markets were flashing red as far back as the summer that something was amiss (the so called repocalypse).

    So even without the Wuhan virus, it was almost certain that the property market was going into a significant downturn. If I can prevent a young person from going into a big debt to the banks, then I’m happy with that.

    You’re a big big fan of your own voice... or writing or whatever the expression. If you saved someone a few quid fair play to you and well done. However, someone taking advice off a random punter on boards should not be buying property.

    And I agree prices will drop and rents with it. Pretty obvious considering what has happened to the economy. I’m not arguing that.


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    #5063
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Hubertj wrote: »
    You’re a big big fan of your own voice... or writing or whatever the expression. If you saved someone a few quid fair play to you and well done. However, someone taking advice off a random punter on boards should not be buying property.

    What if the random punter is armed with facts?


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    #5064
    sarahmc92
    Registered Users Posts: 32 ✭sarahmc92


    Are banks lending at the moment?


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    #5065
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,562 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    pearcider wrote: »
    My only agenda is the truth. I know for a fact my posts in the 2019 thread put off several people from purchasing at what was clearly the top of the market because they PMed me as such. It wasn’t just the rental market that was indicating the bull run was at an end. More importantly and probably unknown to the casual observer the international credit markets were flashing red as far back as the summer that something was amiss (the so called repocalypse).

    So even without the Wuhan virus, it was almost certain that the property market was going into a significant downturn. If I can prevent a young person from going into a big debt to the banks, then I’m happy with that.
    pearcider wrote: »
    What if the random punter is armed with facts?

    Just to soften your cough a bit and before you get too far ahead of yourself, a month ago you told me to ditch my stocks while I could.

    If I had listened to you at the time it would have been a pretty significant mistake.

    You're speculating here, same as everyone else. Broken clocks and all that.


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    #5066
    OttoPilot
    Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭OttoPilot


    awec wrote: »
    Just to soften your cough a bit and before you get too far ahead of yourself, a month ago you told me to ditch my stocks while I could.

    If I had listened to you at the time it would have been a pretty significant mistake.

    Far from the end of the bear market in equities.


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    #5067
    The Student
    Registered Users Posts: 1,253 ✭✭✭The Student


    pearcider wrote: »
    What if the random punter is armed with facts?

    We are in uncharted times. The market is frozen demand outweighs supply. Supply may have increased because of air bnb entering the rental market but it is not enough to meet demand.

    Look at the health crisis for similarities, people are not going to hospitals, there are still sick people.

    The same can be said for the housing market. Demand has not disappeared, it may have reduced a bit but it still outweighs supply.


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    #5068
    mcbert
    Registered Users Posts: 460 ✭✭mcbert


    sarahmc92 wrote: »
    Are banks lending at the moment?


    Yes


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    #5069
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,562 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    OttoPilot wrote: »
    Far from the end of the bear market in equities.

    Maybe we are, maybe we aren't. It's easy to claim to be knowledgeable if you're going to be so absolutely vague about when something might happen.

    Fact remains, people who offloaded a month ago on the back of pearcider's "advice" that the market was certain to crash have likely lost out.

    There's not a lot more insufferable than broken clocks tooting their own horn.


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    #5070
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    awec wrote: »
    Just to soften your cough a bit and before you get too far ahead of yourself, a month ago you told me to ditch my stocks while I could.

    If I had listened to you at the time it would have been a pretty significant mistake.

    You're speculating here, same as everyone else. Broken clocks and all that.

    I don’t remember giving you specific advice but I do know you’re a property bull and therefore dead wrong on the future of the property market. As for the wider stock market the only reason a crash has been avoided is because the central banks are holding up the stock market by blowing 1 million dollars per second to try and stop the tide going out. The question is how long does that last.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/the-fed-is-buying-41-billion-of-assets-daily-and-it-s-not-alone?cmpid=BBD042120_MKT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=200421&utm_campaign=markets

    For markets where monetary policy has no effect such as the oil market, the crash has been spectacular.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/oil-drops-to-18-year-low-on-global-demand-crunch-storage-woes

    Facts are facts.


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    #5071
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    If the banks lose more money to defaulters in Ireland, mortgage interest rates will be going up, no matter what other interest rates do,

    no , taxes will go up in order to bail out the banks which are in awful shape by the way , you only need to look at the share price of irish banks to see that


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