The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

devnull · 21-04-2020 11:27AM

1641 wrote: »

The current UK figure for deaths (hospital only) is 16,509. Increasing that by 41% gives 23,278 as being a more accurate estimate of current UK Covid deaths.

The ONS figures are based on data up to 10th April, not after that.

Salary Negotiator · 21-04-2020 11:27AM

1641 wrote: »

The current UK figure for deaths (hospital only) is 16,509. Increasing that by 41% gives 23,278 as being a more accurate estimate of current UK Covid deaths.

They’ve not revised the current total figure upwards but the figure as at April 10.

Read the link.

Leroy42 · 21-04-2020 11:30AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

In those ONS figures it states there were nearly 8,000 excess deaths for the week ending April 10 of which some 6,213 were due to covid-19. So 22% were not attributable to the virus. The previous week that figure stood at 41%.

That is a fairly significant discrepancy and really begs an explanation.

100% agree, and the government should be providing this clarity. In it a nonsense that multiple agencies have to gather data from different points of time and try to mix it together.

As I said previously, one can only conclude that the government are, being kind here, not overly concerned that when numbers like this are published the conversation turns to the legitimacy of the numbers rather than looking at why the government doesn't have the numbers or why the numbers are as they are.

It is a simply fix. Create an online portal, with protected access, and each care home, hospital, LA medical team etc need to fill in each days numbers. This is, after all a war, but apparently it is beyond the wit of the government to organise a data collection system?

21-04-2020 11:34AM

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

They’ve not revised the current total figure upwards but the figure as at April 10.

Read the link.

I know that. But as of the 10th April the real death numbers from Covid-19 were 41% higher than the figures from the Dept of Health. There is no reason to believe that the current hospital figures are not similarly under-reporting. Indeed, as the infection has spread disproportionately in residential settings since the lockdown the current increase in non- hospital deaths is likely to be more than 41%, if anything.

But we will not know this for sure for another two weeks as this is how far behind the ONS figues run.

devnull · 21-04-2020 11:37AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

100% agree, and the government should be providing this clarity. In it a nonsense that multiple agencies have to gather data from different points of time and try to mix it together.

As I said previously, one can only conclude that the government are, being kind here, not overly concerned that when numbers like this are published the conversation turns to the legitimacy of the numbers rather than looking at why the government doesn't have the numbers or why the numbers are as they are.

Whilst Sky News and others might be reporting on ONS and looking at them in comparison to the other figures that have been published they are getting very little coverage elsewhere compared to the DHSC figures which are being treated as the gold standard, essentially forgetting about the many families who have lost elderly loved ones, parents and grandparents etc.

Many outlets both in print and media are still reporting the DHSC death figures as the UK total death figures from coronavirus and honestly even many of those covering the ONS data today will forget them by the time the DHSC figures come out and then call the DHSC figures as the "Total UK coronavirus deaths" despite the fact that's not what it is.

There's also been a narrative being pushed by some of the media today about how there were 'Record numbers were in work before Covid-19' as being a key takeaway from the ONS figures, which seems like deflection to me when the big story is the under-reporting of deaths that of course doesn't suit the government's narrative and agenda.

Leroy42 · 21-04-2020 11:39AM

1641 wrote: »

But we will not know this for sure for another two weeks as this is how far behind the ONS figues run.

And that, I believe, is by design. Things are moving so fast that two weeks is an eternity. It is all about buying time, getting past the latest issue to blow up.

Salary Negotiator · 21-04-2020 11:41AM

1641 wrote: »

I know that. But as of the 10th April the real death numbers from Covid-19 were 41% higher than the figures from the Dept of Health. There is no reason to believe that the current hospital figures are not similarly under-reporting. Indeed, as the infection has spread disproportionately in residential settings since the lockdown the current increase in non- hospital deaths is likely to be more than 41%, if anything.

But we will not know this for sure for another two weeks as this is how far behind the ONS figues run.

Yeah, the current figure is underreported but you can’t just increase that figure by the same 41%.

Leroy42 · 21-04-2020 11:45AM

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

Yeah, the current figure is underreported but you can’t just increase that figure by the same 41%.

TBF, its as good a number of any other. At least it has some data on which it is based. The government are currently making decisions based on known incorrect data.

Enzokk · 21-04-2020 11:51AM

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1252533699155054592?s=20

So if I understand this tweet correctly, the number of flu and pneumonia deaths are tracking on the average for the last 5 years. But the number of COVID-19 deaths have increased the total number of deaths.

The replies to this tweet, I mean the mental gymnastics being made is reminiscent of some of the posts on here. Trying to compare 2019 as a whole to just over three months so far this year, that is ridiculous and dishonest. There is a reason why they use a 5 year average, it is to avoid one year spikes or where less deaths occurred and to try and draw your conclusions from it.

I mean if I could I would compare weeks 14 and 15 of 2019 and 2020 and it doesn't make great reading.

Weekly deaths in 2019

Week 14 - 10 126
Week 15 - 10 291

Weekly deaths in 2020

Week 14 - 16 387
Week 15 - 18 516

That is 14 486 more deaths this year compared to last year. The average for the last 5 years for Weeks 14 and 15 was,

Week 14 - 10 306
Week 15 - 10 520

So around 6 000 more deaths in the 14th week compared to the average of the last 5 years and 8 000 more deaths in week 15.

But yeah, some random bloke will try to tell me the average is only slightly up comparing this year and last year so these figures are being distorted somehow. People need to catch a cop on.

Figures from this website, ONS

Zubeneschamali · 21-04-2020 12:00PM

Graphs of mortality vs normal for European countries and regions. NI vs Ireland a stark contrast.

https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html

Joe_ Public · 21-04-2020 12:03PM

Another thing is nobody should be under illusion that ONS figures are anywhere near comprehensive.

Some sobering statistics all from linked article:

Number of deaths estimated by Care England across homes in England and Wales - 7,500

Number of deaths reported in National Care Home survey by April 13 - 4,000

Number of care home deaths up to April 10 as reported by ONS - just over 1,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/uk-care-home-bosses-call-for-help-from-medics-as-death-toll-grows

21-04-2020 12:17PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Why are you talking about NHS Scotland and NHS England when we are discussing private care homes not getting supplies for their residences? Are you deliberately confusing the 2?

you clearly have no understanding of how private care homes fit in to the NHS system.

Enzokk wrote: »

These items were for sale, but only to English care homes on request from PHE. So your contention was that PHE bought this stock, and then tasked these companies to sell them to private care homes in England only? Do you have any news stories to back up your version of what happened?

please tell me which bit of this is confusing https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-government-expert-says-sorry-21875633

In an interview this morning, Leitch said: “I think I should first of all say sorry for my part in confusion on Tuesday morning. I over spoke a little and should have been more circumspect in my response to you."

He added: “In turns out that Public Health England and the Department of Health havn’t given instructions to companies not to provide PPE to Scottish providers.”

Put to him that the Gompels issue had been about supplies procured previously by Public Health England and which were for care homes in England, he replied: “That appears to be where the confusion arose.”

A Dub in Glasgo · 21-04-2020 12:21PM

Aegir wrote: »

you clearly have no understanding of how private care homes fit in to the NHS system.

please tell me which bit of this is confusing https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-government-expert-says-sorry-21875633

1.38
We recognise that the social care sector operates differently to the NHS, and we need to take different steps to ensure that providers can continue to access PPE. 23 million items of PPE have been released to designated wholesalers for onward sale to social care providers. We have made arrangements with seven wholesalers to supply PPE to the social care sector. Careshop, Blueleaf, Delivernet, Countrywide Healthcare, Nexon Group, Wightman and Parrish and Gompels will all provide supplies to care providers registered with the Care Quality Commission.

Enzokk · 21-04-2020 12:39PM

Aegir wrote: »

you clearly have no understanding of how private care homes fit in to the NHS system.

please tell me which bit of this is confusing https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-government-expert-says-sorry-21875633

So he apologizes for being right? That is some strange apology there. This issue was sorted within a day it seems because it was raised with the UK Government and the instruction was passed on to the suppliers to start selling to Scotland and Wales care homes instead of excluding them from buying equipment.

A Dub in Glasgo · 21-04-2020 12:41PM

Scotland:
In hospital: 1,866 (+57)
In ICU: 166 (-3)
Total confirmed cases: 8672 (+222)
Total deaths with confirmed COVID-19: 985 (+70)

Therefore as it stands, there are a minimum of 1,379 (985+394) deaths in Scotland (confirmed and suspected)

Tomorrow will see an update of the suspected COVID-19 deaths in Scotland (up to Sunday, 19th April)

21-04-2020 12:59PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

1.38
We recognise that the social care sector operates differently to the NHS, and we need to take different steps to ensure that providers can continue to access PPE. 23 million items of PPE have been released to designated wholesalers for onward sale to social care providers. We have made arrangements with seven wholesalers to supply PPE to the social care sector. Careshop, Blueleaf, Delivernet, Countrywide Healthcare, Nexon Group, Wightman and Parrish and Gompels will all provide supplies to care providers registered with the Care Quality Commission.

So that explains what England is doing, what are the Scottish government doing?

A Dub in Glasgo · 21-04-2020 01:07PM

Aegir wrote: »

So that explains what England is doing

That is from the UK government

serfboard · 21-04-2020 01:16PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is a simply fix. Create an online portal, with protected access, and each care home, hospital, LA medical team etc need to fill in each days numbers. This is, after all a war, but apparently it is beyond the wit of the government to organise a data collection system?

It is not a question of wit, it is a question of motivation.

Why create such a system, when the outcome would be to show what absolute slaughter is going on, and which would reflect disastrously on the government?

As usual, Parody Boris Johnson has it spot on:

A Dub in Glasgo · 21-04-2020 01:18PM

21-04-2020 01:20PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

That is from the UK government

which does not have responsibility for care homes in Scotland, that I believe is the responsibility of the Scottish Government via the care inspectorate

devnull · 21-04-2020 01:24PM

serfboard wrote: »

It is not a question of wit, it is a question of motivation.

Why create such a system, when the outcome would be to show what absolute slaughter is going on, and which would reflect disastrously on the government?

As usual, Parody Boris Johnson has it spot on:

According to what has been released, one of his first actions of coming back will be to phone Donald Trump to discuss the current situation, no doubt closely followed by the kind of campaign and rhetoric Trump is using, as has been seen at the weekend where Gove and IDS were plugging false narratives.

A Dub in Glasgo · 21-04-2020 01:29PM

Aegir wrote: »

which does not have responsibility for care homes in Scotland, that I believe is the responsibility of the Scottish Government via the care inspectorate

Care homes are private businesses and need to be registered with the local health authorities. In what way does the Scottish govt (or indeed UK govt) have responsibility for those private businesses?

The care homes in Britain have being buying PPE for years from the British wholesalers (who are also private businesses) then the UK government issue a document telling the wholesalers to only issue PPE to care homes registered in England. Complaints come in from care homes in Scotland and Wales and the Scottish government take the issue up with the UK government and the issue is then resolved

Why are you finding it so hard to understand?

bob mcbob · 21-04-2020 01:55PM

It seems that Boris has come up with a solution to the testing fiasco and in particular the inability to hit 100K tests per day by the end of the month.

Call the 100K figure "arbitrary" and "irritational" then blame Hancock for making the promise.

The Health Secretary's promise that 100,000 people a day would be tested for coronavirus has been criticised as "arbitrary" and "irrational" by Downing Street sources.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/20/matt-hancocks-pledge-test-100000-people-day-coronavirus-arbitrary/

Enzokk · 21-04-2020 02:00PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

It seems that Boris has come up with a solution to the testing fiasco and in particular the inability to hit 100K tests per day by the end of the month.

Call the 100K figure "arbitrary" and "irritational" then blame Hancock for making the promise.

The Health Secretary's promise that 100,000 people a day would be tested for coronavirus has been criticised as "arbitrary" and "irrational" by Downing Street sources.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/20/matt-hancocks-pledge-test-100000-people-day-coronavirus-arbitrary/

As James O'Brien said today,

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1252512186892779520?s=20

When Johnson starts trying to distance himself from the incompetence of his own government, as he surely will, cabinet ministers will find out just how loyal & honest he is.
They could save themselves some time by asking his wives.

Joe_ Public · 21-04-2020 02:01PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

It seems that Boris has come up with a solution to the testing fiasco and in particular the inability to hit 100K tests per day by the end of the month.

Call the 100K fiegure "arbitrary" and "irritational" then blame Hancock for making the promise.

The Health Secretary's promise that 100,000 people a day would be tested for coronavirus has been criticised as "arbitrary" and "irrational" by Downing Street sources.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/20/matt-hancocks-pledge-test-100000-people-day-coronavirus-arbitrary/

That's interesting. Can see the logic from pm point of view, let Hancock take the heat and also make it seem like if mistakes were made, it was because their leader was MIA and all will be rational again now he's soon to be back in business. Cool operators these guys.

Joe_ Public · 21-04-2020 02:07PM

While they are right to target Hancock who deserves all the criticism he gets, we shouldnt forget what Johnson told the daily press briefing on March 19:

Mr Johnson said: "By the same token we're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000."

RobMc59 · 21-04-2020 02:18PM

Aegir wrote: »

So that explains what England is doing, what are the Scottish government doing?

Unfortunately,there are many posters who refuse to believe the Scottish government makes the rules for Scotland-it doesn't fit into the 'English bullies overuling all other UK nations' false claims they like to throw about.

devnull · 21-04-2020 02:20PM

778 further hospital deaths for those who tested positive for coronavirus in England reported today, alongside 70 in Scotland, 35 in Wales making a total of 873. Northern Ireland numbers still to be declared.

Will be over-reported because of the under-reporting on the weekend figures.

21-04-2020 02:28PM

Whichever way we look at the numbers (whether it is compensating for a lower Monday number, for example) they remain pretty horrible. I know it’s early days in the current lockdown cycle, but I’m starting to think that the UK lockdown will be extended again until the June bank holiday.

ArmaniJeanss · 21-04-2020 02:39PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Whichever way we look at the numbers (whether it is compensating for a lower Monday number, for example) they remain pretty horrible. I know it’s early days in the current lockdown cycle, but I’m starting to think that the UK lockdown will be extended again until the June bank holiday.

They don't have such a BH, they do the last Monday in May instead.
But I'd agree that seems a logical point to extend to, and has the psychological advantage of not being in another month.

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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