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The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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Comments

  • #3632
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 11,912 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    I think that’s what they’re questioning!
    Sky’s numbers don’t reconcile

    Sky's numbers are based on the numbers released by each country's relevant NHS.

    The DHSC overall numbers not adding up to the sum of their parts has been the case for ages.


  • #3633
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,443 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Scotland:
    In hospital: 1,809 (+12)
    In ICU: 169 (-5)
    Total confirmed cases: 8,450 (+263)
    Total deaths with confirmed COVID-19: 915 (+12)

    Therefore as it stands, there are a minimum of 1,309 (915+394) deaths in Scotland (confirmed and suspected)


  • #3634
    McGiver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,995 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Death cases per capita.

    Belgium - 0.474 per 1000 (care homes included)
    Italy - 0.384 per 1000 (care homes not included)
    Spain - 0.429 per 1000 (care homes not included)
    France - 0.284 per 1000 (care homes included)
    UK - 0.243 per 1000 (care homes not included)
    UK - 0.340 per 1000 (estimated with care homes included)
    Germany - 0.052 per 1000 (care homes included)

    Germany has 4.7x lower mortality than UK using incorrect/incomplete UK numbers and 6.5x lower mortality when using like for like numbers for UK.

    For reference:
    Austria - 0.050 per 1000 (care homes included)
    Norway - 0.028 per 1000 (care homes included)
    Ireland - 0.117 per 1000 (care homes included)
    Scotland - 0.242 per per 1000 (care homes included)


    Ireland numbers aren't the best given the advantages (size, density, island etc.) but this is not subject of this thread. It's still around 3 times better than UK anyway.

    Conclusion: UK is bottom of the league as I mentioned before, somewhat worse than France and only Spain & Italy are worse. I don't expect this to change for the better, Spain & Italy are after the peak already, UK is about to peak at best.

    EDIT: Added Belgium. But that's not a comparable country to UK I'm sure :)


  • #3635
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    McGiver wrote: »
    Death cases per capita.

    Italy - 0.384 per 1000 (care homes not included)
    Spain - 0.429 per 1000 (care homes not included)
    France - 0.284 per 1000 (care homes included)
    UK - 0.243 per 1000 (care homes not included)
    UK - 0.340 per 1000 (estimated with care homes included)
    Germany - 0.052 per 1000 (care homes included)

    Germany has 4.7x lower mortality than UK using incorrect/incomplete UK numbers and 6.5x lower mortality when using like for like numbers for UK.

    For reference:
    Austria - 0.050 per 1000 (care homes included)
    Norway - 0.028 per 1000 (care homes included)
    Ireland - 0.117 per 1000 (care homes included)
    Scotland - 0.242 per per 1000 (care homes included)


    Ireland numbers aren't the best given the advantages (size, density, island etc.) but this is not subject of this thread. It's still around 3 times better than UK anyway.

    Conclusion: UK is bottom of the league as I mentioned before, somewhat worse than France and only Spain & Italy are worse. I don't expect this to change for the better, Spain & Italy are after the peak already, UK is about to peak at best.

    The UK figures are already flattening. I provided a link to a chart tracking the 7 day rolling averages a few days ago. The UK death figures are lower than last week. The hope is it continues flattening and then falling. So it's false that the UK is still waiting to peak.

    I agree that the UK has a lot to learn from Germany and I've conceded this a few days ago.


  • #3636
    Christy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,107 ✭✭✭Christy42


    I have no idea if Belgium include care homes but they should be up their too.

    Still the UK has called their response brilliant. They shouldn't be looking to simply not be worst and they are a mile off the countries dealing with this well.


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  • #3637
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    theological wrote: »
    The UK figures are already flattening. I provided a link to a chart tracking the 7 day rolling averages a few days ago. The UK death figures are lower than last week. The hope is it continues flattening and then falling. So it's false that the UK is still waiting to peak.

    I agree that the UK has a lot to learn from Germany and I've conceded this a few days ago.

    It would be great news if the peak has been passed. But Jenny Harries actually stated at yesterday's briefing that they had yet to reach the peak so she must then be wrong about that.


  • #3638
    McGiver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,995 ✭✭✭McGiver


    theological wrote: »
    The UK figures are already flattening. I provided a link to a chart tracking the 7 day rolling averages a few days ago. The UK death figures are lower than last week. The hope is it continues flattening and then falling. So it's false that the UK is still waiting to peak.

    I agree that the UK has a lot to learn from Germany and I've conceded this a few days ago.
    No, UK has not peaked. No flattening. See attached.


  • #3639
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    It would be great news if the peak has been passed. But Jenny Harries actually stated at yesterday's briefing that they had yet to reach the peak so she must then be wrong about that.

    On that I'd expect them to lie about when the peak has been reached. The absolute last thing you want if for the next days papers to be full of headlines about how it's all over as they need the population to comply for longer once things are still on a downward trajectory.

    The hospital admission numbers are going down on their daily graphs for London quite significantly now, less clear for the other regions but that isn't helped by London numbers being on the same chart making it less visible due to the scales. The deaths, whilst inaccurate, are just as inaccurate as they were since the start and have not been increasing for the last week.

    I'm happy with the situation where the graphs and numbers are showing one thing, but the quotes they are giving out are very cautious and not saying anything that a red top newspaper can print that would be taken as a sign for everyone to start demanding that the pubs reopen because it's all over.


  • #3640
    McGiver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,995 ✭✭✭McGiver


    theological wrote: »
    I agree that the UK has a lot to learn from Germany and I've conceded this a few days ago.
    From Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Czechia, Slovenia...


  • #3641
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    McGiver wrote: »
    No, UK has not peaked. No flattening. See attached.

    You must have a different perception of what "flat" is then.

    Highest count for daily deaths from that chart was 9 days ago. Whilst there is a fake drop in numbers from over the long weekend, the rest of the last week which would include those late reported deaths doesn't show any further spike in numbers.


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  • #3642
    McGiver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,995 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Christy42 wrote: »
    I have no idea if Belgium include care homes but they should be up their too.

    Still the UK has called their response brilliant. They shouldn't be looking to simply not be worst and they are a mile off the countries dealing with this well.

    They do. I've added Belgium to my stats. When counting care homes/outside of hospital deaths for Spain, or Italy, it will be probably slightly better or about the same than these two.


  • #3643
    McGiver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,995 ✭✭✭McGiver


    robinph wrote: »
    You must have a different perception of what "flat" is then.

    Highest count for daily deaths from that chart was 9 days ago. Whilst there is a fake drop in numbers from over the long weekend, the rest of the last week which would include those late reported deaths doesn't show any further spike in numbers.

    Yesterdays' daily cases increase is larger than 6/7 last days. That's not flattening. Maybe it's close but the curve is not flattening whatsoever, it's still heading up.
    Flattening curve looks like the attached (Austria).


  • #3644
    Akabusi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,125 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    McGiver wrote: »
    No, UK has not peaked. No flattening. See attached.

    That's pretty flat to me


  • #3645
    McGiver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,995 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Akabusi wrote: »
    That's pretty flat to me

    Aha? Not really.

    covid-eu-large.png


  • #3646
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    robinph wrote: »
    On that I'd expect them to lie about when the peak has been reached. The absolute last thing you want if for the next days papers to be full of headlines about how it's all over as they need the population to comply for longer once things are still on a downward trajectory.

    The hospital admission numbers are going down on their daily graphs for London quite significantly now, less clear for the other regions but that isn't helped by London numbers being on the same chart making it less visible due to the scales. The deaths, whilst inaccurate, are just as inaccurate as they were since the start and have not been increasing for the last week.

    I'm happy with the situation where the graphs and numbers are showing one thing, but the quotes they are giving out are very cautious and not saying anything that a red top newspaper can print that would be taken as a sign for everyone to start demanding that the pubs reopen because it's all over.

    Any clear reason why hospital admissions are going down in london but not elsewhere? At the press briefings they seem to generally attribute it to social distancing paying off but should that not apply everywhere? Its good news of course but just curious about the overall wider trend.


  • #3647
    RobMc59
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Any clear reason why hospital admissions are going down in london but not elsewhere? At the press briefings they seem to generally attribute it to social distancing paying off but should that not apply everywhere? Its good news of course but just curious about the overall wider trend.

    Could it be because London was hit the worst from the start and perhaps it is beginning to peak there?


  • #3648
    McGiver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,995 ✭✭✭McGiver


    UK regions...


  • #3649
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,337 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Is it not correct to say that they are backfilling and correcting deaths over time?

    So if you look at any data adjusted for actual day of death, it is can still look like a peak in the past even if it is still increasing

    We might be looking on Monday at 100 and last week at 110.
    Then the next Friday we are looking at 120, but the Mondays number has been updated to 140 attributed deaths and so it still looks like it decrease.
    And in reality, the Friday's number will be 160 when all deaths are correctly attributed

    i.e. you need to be careful what you are comparing to.


  • #3650
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Any clear reason why hospital admissions are going down in london but not elsewhere? At the press briefings they seem to generally attribute it to social distancing paying off but should that not apply everywhere? Its good news of course but just curious about the overall wider trend.

    I think they are coming down in other regions, although I yesterdays graph had a sudden jump back up in one of the regions (possibly North East) which could be due to intermittent reporting. It's just the scale of the graph is swamped by the London number so you have to look very closely to see if it's up or down. Regions outside of London are going to be a few days behind, but they certainly appear to mostly be going downwards, except possibly Wales.

    Not sure what the source numbers are for those charts though.


  • #3651
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    McGiver wrote: »
    Aha? Not really.

    covid-eu-large.png
    But now you are quoting a cumulative chart using a logarithm scale, while the previous was a daily chart.

    Define what you mean by flat and what number you are looking at it in? Daily new cases, daily deaths, total deaths, total cases?


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  • #3652
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    McGiver wrote: »
    No, UK has not peaked. No flattening. See attached.

    It depends on what measure you are using.

    I was referring to the death figures.

    Your graph on cases seems to be cumulative and not daily.


  • #3653
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    McGiver wrote: »
    UK regions...

    Not sure you understand what the charts you are posting show.

    That those lines are moving away from the straight dotted lines marked as the different % daily increases shows that it is slowing. If they were going straight and following the dotted lines then the rates would be constant.


  • #3654
    Cupatae
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,915 ✭✭✭Cupatae


    Syncpolice wrote: »
    Virus is currently spreading like wildfire in the UK

    Gotta lift the restrictions and restart the economy

    The virus isn't going anywhere..

    Keeping the economy closed will kill more than the virus

    They ll just have to learn to live with it


  • #3655
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,176 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Cupatae wrote: »
    Keeping the economy closed will kill more than the virus

    They ll just have to learn to live with it


    Do you read the garbage you spout?


  • #3656
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    McGiver wrote: »
    Yesterdays' daily cases increase is larger than 6/7 last days. That's not flattening. Maybe it's close but the curve is not flattening whatsoever, it's still heading up.
    Flattening curve looks like the attached (Austria).

    So you are comparing to the previous 7 days, of which at least 4 of which were part of a holiday weekend and think that because yesterdays numbers were higher that a holiday weekend shows something significant?

    Basically, ignore the new confirmed cases stats. It's a limited number of people being tested under limited circumstances. It doesn't really show anything of use for any perspective that people might be looking to wrangle the stats to back up their cause. If someo charted the number of tests against the number of positive tests it might show something, although not sure what.

    The numbers which the UK are providing which are useful to look at are hospital admissions and deaths.


  • #3657
    bob mcbob
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 970 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »
    Scotland:
    In hospital: 1,809 (+12)
    In ICU: 169 (-5)
    Total confirmed cases: 8,450 (+263)
    Total deaths with confirmed COVID-19: 915 (+12)

    Therefore as it stands, there are a minimum of 1,309 (915+394) deaths in Scotland (confirmed and suspected)

    An antibody study in Santa Clara California has indicated that for every confirmed Covid case, there could be up to 80 undiagnosed / untested cases (mild or asymptomatic).

    Using this figure, even under lock down, there could be 20K people per day getting this in Scotland and in total roughly 15% of the population has had it.


  • #3658
    Christy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,107 ✭✭✭Christy42


    bob mcbob wrote: »
    An antibody study in Santa Clara California has indicated that for every confirmed Covid case, there could be up to 80 undiagnosed / untested cases (mild or asymptomatic).

    Using this figure, even under lock down, there could be 20K people per day getting this in Scotland and in total roughly 15% of the population has had it.

    That would be great news. Antibodies would indicate some level of immunity and that many people having indicates a much smaller death rate than previously believed.

    However I would express caution about reading too much into a single result.


  • #3659
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,708 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Cupatae wrote: »
    Gotta lift the restrictions and restart the economy

    The virus isn't going anywhere..

    Keeping the economy closed will kill more than the virus

    They ll just have to learn to live with it


    Any sector of the economy that has a realistic plan for living with the virus should indeed reopen. Some sectors have no such plan, others need a bit more work on their plan.


  • #3660
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    IHME Seattle, 10 days ago, revised their projected deaths in the UK by August downwards to a tragic 37,000 as the UK government released more data. This 37k figure has remained constant since. Unfortunately, there is still a possibility of this being much higher according to their graph. Presumably, they are factoring true numbers as against the UK government numbers. Sadly, a figure of 49,000 is being predicted by King's College London in this research (click preview PDF).


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  • #3661
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    IHME Seattle, 10 days ago, revised their projected deaths in the UK by August downwards to a tragic 37,000 as the UK government released more data. This 37k figure has remained constant since. Unfortunately, there is still a possibility of this being much higher according to their graph. Presumably, they are factoring true numbers as against the UK government numbers. Sadly, a figure of 49,000 is being predicted by King's College London in this research (click preview PDF).

    The chart on that first link is 4 days out of date, but clearly shows how out of whack their modelling is. Even allowing for the weekend stats being off their numbers predicted for the last four days are 1200+ per day when the reported numbers have been in the 500-700 range for those days.

    Maybe they are adding in the care home numbers as well, but why are they then not added into their historical data if that is what they are using for their predictions? All of their charts seem to predict upticks in the numbers for the days 16-20th April, which isn't what has happened.


This discussion has been closed.
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