The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I live in the UK therefore I definitely have an agenda :rolleyes:

You're a Dub though...

theological wrote: »

Experts divided over comparison of UK and Ireland's coronavirus records. In the Guardian.

This is experts responding to that Twitter thread posted by Elaine Doyle yesterday pointing out why it doesn't make sense to directly compare the numbers.

I guess much like the twitter thread you didn't read past the headline and subheadline. Let me quote a few paragraphs from the article for you,

Dr William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard University, said Doyle had made some good points, noting that he and many of his colleagues had been concerned about the UK’s early response to coronavirus, but cautioned that it was still too early to draw definitive conclusions.

“We are early on in the pandemic and it will remain to be seen how this will all pan out. However, it is unquestionable that major events such as the Cheltenham festival were major opportunities for super-spreading to occur,” he told the Guardian. “And the resulting surge can reasonably be expected to have been more severe than it would have been otherwise.”

What we have been pointing out on here, but we are biased and have an agenda the same as Dr Hanage from Harvard I suppose.

Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the UK might have had proportionately more cases, which would mean more deaths. While he accepted that the later implementation of social distancing measures in the UK might have contributed to the different outcomes, he said there were other factors to consider, including that the UK had a higher proportion of people from BAME communities – who have been found to be at higher risk from coronavirus – and that the UK was also more densely populated, had many areas of high poverty, and hospitals in London were stretched.

Someone tell Professor Hunter he needs to stop this agenda about not acting sooner.

Professor Samuel McConkey, an infectious disease expert at RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences in Dublin, said it was premature to compare Ireland and the UK. “I’d reserve judgment on this for two or three years,” he said.

He said Ireland’s earlier adoption of restrictions, as well as London’s population density, may partly explain greater mortality rates in the UK. “We closed restaurants, pubs, creches, schools weeks before the UK. We had quite significant political cohesion. We had our national leader tell us, ‘folks this is really bad’.”

It's obvious this man has an agenda, he works in Dublin. Trying to tell us we started restrictions earlier is just blasphemy and should not be said unless you mention the trolley crises in the hospitals that is not a crises right now.

Now to those mitigating factors, some quotes,

“Third,” she said, “[is] urbanisation versus rurality of the respective populations – 83% urban for UK, 63% for Ireland.” In other words, a greater proportion of people in the UK live in towns or cities, which may contribute to the spread of a disease.

In the UK, Bird noted, 18% of the population was aged 65 or older, compared with only 13% in Ireland.

So the UK is more urbanised and they have an older population. Almost like they should have considered earlier restrictions.

he said there were other factors to consider, including that the UK had a higher proportion of people from BAME communities – who have been found to be at higher risk from coronavirus – and that the UK was also more densely populated, had many areas of high poverty, and hospitals in London were stretched.

From Professor Hunter, again why the delay in action when you are more exposed to the rapid spread of the virus and have more people who are vulnerable?

Keith Neal, an emeritus professor in epidemiology of infectious diseases at the University of Nottingham, added that the UK probably encountered its first infections earlier.

“The risk of introduction is related to the number of travellers coming back with an infection,” he said. “Although Ireland may have the same number of international travellers per head of population, your risk of first introductions is related to the number of travellers. The UK is 13 times larger in population than Ireland and London is much more of an international centre and hub than Dublin.”

That, said Neal, could be significant: “With doubling times of every two to three days, even a later introduction of the first infections by a week can have a very large effect.”

I will be repeating myself here...so why the delay in response if the UK had earlier cases and more risks with more people traveling the possibly picking it up?

RobMc59 wrote: »

And how many threads about Britain in this forum overall?

You were happy enough earlier coming out with crap and painting yourself into a corner. The smart thing to do would have been to slink off quietly and forget about this thread for a while. No point coming on here now and moaning and bitching and trying to change the topic because even you yourself have realised by now that you cannot hide that you were talking grade A shite

Aegir wrote: »

Two different countries with two very different populations. No one should be comparing the two, but as usual, in Ireland it is being treated as a competition.

Ireland is one of the least densely populated countries in Europe, has a very low percentage of the population living in high rise accommodation and has a public transport system that is basic at best. The UK, US, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands etc were always going to get this far worse than Ireland. Admittedly though, Germany is an example of how it could have gone.

Not like Scotland then.
Or Northern Ireland
Or Wales.

Those heaving densely protected metropolises are doing well to be coping far better than Ireland aren't they?

I live in London and the strangest thing I find is the lack of uproar and anger.
We seemed to get so many graphic images from Italy and I used to think, God help us if that happens here. And now it is happening here, but you'd never know. I can't believe there aren't more angry, grieving relatives on the TV criticising the government's slow response.
The headline are dominated by pictures of Boris and the nation wishing him well even though his actions have caused many, many unnecessary deaths.

Aegir wrote: »

Two different countries with two very different populations. No one should be comparing the two, but as usual, in Ireland it is being treated as a competition.

Ireland is one of the least densely populated countries in Europe, has a very low percentage of the population living in high rise accommodation and has a public transport system that is basic at best. The UK, US, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands etc were always going to get this far worse than Ireland. Admittedly though, Germany is an example of how it could have gone.

But surely the government of the UK took all that into consideration when making its decisions?

You make it sound like it is a reason when in fact it just shows that the UK seemed to have taken a one size fits all approach without taking into account the unique circumstances of the UK itself.

They knew about the lack of ICU, lack of PPE, demographics, population density, BAME levels etc. Wouldn't all that indicate that they should have acted sooner rather than wait?

RobMc59 wrote: »

You`d know all about talking sh*te donald,you are universally regarded as the undefeated,undisputed bullsh*tting champion of all Eireann! :pac:

Fair play to you for researching that one for me. You must be either very dedicated or have plenty of time on your hands with nothing to do. Maybe both

Do I get a trophy?

RobMc59 wrote: »

The problem you have here though is that as Ireland is part of the EU which has handled the crisis very poorly its unlikely anyone would take advice from any EU country in this subject.

You should have taken advice as well as the ventilators your getting from Germany

Aegir wrote: »

The ONS figures are accurate. They are commissioned by the government and give very detailed accounts of all deaths, confirmed and related to covid 19.

The Irish figures are nowhere near as transparent and open, nor will they ever be for two reasons.

Whistle blowers in Ireland are persecuted.

People like you are more worried about what is going on in a foreign country than holding your own government to task.

Ons figures 2 weeks behind. Every day government and cmo go to press briefings and deal on the basis of official figures they know to be seriously underestimating the truth. People are not happy about that.

Just to be clear on other point: we cant trust the irish figures because I'm interested in what happens in uk?

What did you make of the whistlebower on channel 4 tonight btw?

Aegir wrote: »

Yeah, they should have clicked their fingers and made it magically appear, like every other country in Europe did.

There really is some **** posted on here.

So what did they do? They wasted crucial time in pretending they didn't need it, spend ages lying about it, as they still are. Why are the UK at the very top of the charts in terms of death rates? Why is Greece so different.

You casually throw out these smart alec remarks, as if nobody has access to any information to show how wrong you are.

Remember the UK is the 5th biggest economy in the world, the EU needs them more than it needs it. Are you telling me the UK government are powerless?

If this stuff was so hard to come by, why did they opt out of the EU procurement scheme? Give stated that they didn't need it as they had access to what they needed? Do you remember him saying that?

Aegir wrote: »

Two different countries with two very different populations. No one should be comparing the two, but as usual, in Ireland it is being treated as a competition.

Ireland is one of the least densely populated countries in Europe, has a very low percentage of the population living in high rise accommodation and has a public transport system that is basic at best. The UK, US, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands etc were always going to get this far worse than Ireland. Admittedly though, Germany is an example of how it could have gone.

The Coronavirus Hit Germany And The UK Just Days Apart But The Countries Have Responded Differently. Here’s How.

Some of the dates and comparisons,

Germany - March 2: March 2: Germany begins the month with 140 positive cases, with infections detected in 10 of the country’s 16 regions. The RKI raises its threat level to “moderate”.

Germany has the capacity to run 7,115 tests a day that week, data published by the RKI shows. By the end of the week, it will have done 87,863 tests since the beginning of the crisis. Contact tracing is central to the government’s approach.

A senior virologist advising the German government says “this illness is a mild illness”.

Health minister Spahn says cancelling all mass events and shutting businesses is not appropriate, and closing borders is not necessary. The health minister warns, however, that eventually "every day life will have to be restricted a bit".

UK - March 3: 51 people in the UK have now tested positive out of 13,911 tested.

Johnson says “I shook hands with everybody” during a visit to a hospital.

Germany - March 4: Amid warnings of shortages, the coronavirus crisis response team declares that procuring personal protective equipment (PPE) is of “extraordinary urgency”. The government temporarily bans the export of PPE, a move that will later be reversed after an intervention by the EU.

Spahn tells the Bundestag that the epidemic is now a global pandemic. Talking about the possible cancellation of events and school closures, the health minister says the safety of the population will come before economic interests.

UK - March 4: Chris Whitty says there is “probably” onward transmission in the UK and an epidemic is “likely, not definite”.

“We probably do have some onward transmission here in the UK. Now we are on the borderline between containing and delaying. At this point in time we think it is likely, not definite, that we will move into onward transmission and an epidemic here in the UK.”

Germany - March 10: The government recommends the cancellation of all events with more than 1,000 people and advises against travel to Italy. Because of Germany’s federal setup, the implementation of the recommendations are up to each individual region. The government also announces that it will be urgently procuring intensive care equipment centrally. Visits to government departments and parliament are cancelled, and work begins to lift a ban on Sunday trading.

March 13: The Bundesliga announces it is suspending the league, following similar measures in most of Europe.

The government places an order for 10,000 ventilators.

All states announce that schools and kindergartens across the country will close.

UK - March 13: The Cheltenham horse racing festival concludes. More than 250,000 people attended.

Chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance suggests in an interview with the BBC that the UK’s goal is to achieve “herd immunity”.

“If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back, and it bounces back at the wrong time. Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it.”

But that evening, Downing Street says mass gatherings will be banned the following week, in a U-turn on the previous day’s statements.

And then the most worrying figure for me that the UK still hasn't really addressed at all,

Germany - April 2: At least 2,300 doctors and nurses have contracted the coronavirus, according to the RKI. Overall, 84,244 people have tested positive for the virus by April 1 and 1,114 have died.

This is not from the article but it is from the day before, Coronavirus: just 2,000 NHS frontline workers tested so far

So if anything it is better to compare the UK and Ireland if you get upset about the spotlight being shone on the response of the UK so far, because if we start comparing the UK with the countries it is better compared to it becomes worse.

RobMc59 wrote: »

I never said I think he`s Mr wonderful Tom-but I do think he has shown himself to have a steely determination which should`nt be dismissed out of hand.
Martin McGuinness also had it.

Hitler also had it