The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

robinph · 12-04-2020 07:46PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

It is interesting that even the NRS numbers, where Covid was mentioned on the death cert, could be an understatement.

On 5th April, the average number of deaths in the last 5 years was 1098 but this year on this date, there were 1741 deaths but only 282 were related to Covid. That leaves 361 deaths which is a very high figure over the average. I will check out the next update to see if this trend continues.

I glanced through a couple of previous years of the UK wide ONS stats the other day and individual months could vary by a couple of thousand from one year to the next. The only constant variation was that the winter months would have up to 5000 more than the summer months.

PommieBast · 12-04-2020 10:56PM

NHS 'score' tool to decide which patients receive critical care

https://www.ft.com/content/d738b2c6-000a-421b-9dbd-f85e6b333684

It is basically codifying what is already happening and not just in the UK, but this will be poison within UK politics for years to come.

Joe_ Public · 12-04-2020 11:10PM

This is preparing people for how grim things might get, potentially like we were seeing in italy a while back. This paragraph from that nhs "score chart" is particularly sobering. Anyone over 70 is pretty much already on 7 points, with 8 meaning little chance of receiving intensive care. I mean 70, it's not really all THAT old, is it?

"The NHS scoring system, developed by the government-sponsored National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, reveals that any patient over the age of 70 will be a borderline candidate for critical care treatment. A 71 to 75 year old patient would automatically get four points for their age and probably three on the “frailty index”, bringing their total baseline score to seven points."

ILoveYourVibes · 12-04-2020 11:13PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

This is preparing people for how grim things might get, potentially like we were seeing in italy a while back. This paragraph from that nhs "score chart" is particularly sobering. Anyone over 70 is pretty much already on 7 points, with 8 meaning little chance of receiving intensive care. I mean 70, it's not really all THAT old, is it?

"The NHS scoring system, developed by the government-sponsored National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, reveals that any patient over the age of 70 will be a borderline candidate for critical care treatment. A 71 to 75 year old patient would automatically get four points for their age and probably three on the “frailty index”, bringing their total baseline score to seven points."

I think what is more sobering will be children with underlying health conditions.

LuckyLloyd · 13-04-2020 12:01AM

Battlefield triage by another name.

If you’re utilising this (irrespective of how you label it) you’ve reached the place Italy reached. Which means you squandered the additional time you had to prepare.

threeball · 13-04-2020 12:37AM

I hope the irony of two foreign nurses in an underfunded NHS saving Boris' life isn't lost on him.

AllForIt · 13-04-2020 02:22AM

threeball wrote: »

I hope the irony of two foreign nurses in an underfunded NHS saving Boris' life isn't lost on him.

I hope those foreign nurses aren't required in the country they came from.

Enzokk · 13-04-2020 07:37AM

AllForIt wrote: »

I hope those foreign nurses aren't required in the country they came from.

Someone is salty, but I can add to the saltiness. I hope the £625 fee per year proposed by Johnson that foreigners like those 2 will need to pay to use the system they will be working in goes to build up the pandemic stockpile that his party allowed to dwindle by more than £325m since they have been in charge.

Calls to scrap ‘immoral’ NHS fee for foreign staff

Boris Johnson’s plans to charge foreign staff who help save British lives £625 a year to use the NHS will worsen its staffing crisis, doctors’ and nurses’ leaders have warned.

They have reacted with dismay over the prime minister’s proposal to increase the so-called health surcharge payable by non-EU staff for the third time in four years and demand it should be scrapped completely.

The Conservative party announced on Sunday it was going to increase the surcharge from £400 to £625 a year for all non-EU migrant workers and extend it to all EU citizens who migrate to the UK after Brexit.

Revealed: value of UK pandemic stockpile fell by 40% in six years

UK government stockpiles containing protective equipment for healthcare workers in the event of a pandemic fell in value by almost 40% over the past six years, the Guardian has found.

Analysis of official financial data suggests £325m was wiped off the value of the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) emergency stockpile, reducing it from £831m in 2013 under the Conservative-led coalition government to £506m by March last year.

The finding is likely to raise further questions for the health secretary, Matt Hancock, who faced criticism over the weekend after urging healthcare workers not to “overuse” personal protective equipment (PPE).

The revelation raises questions about why the value depreciated so quickly and how the fall related to stock-levels.

So the Daily Mail is now reporting on the care homes fighting back on not accepting patients discharged from hospital and who has not been cleared by a test from Covid-19.

Care homes revolt: Worries nursing home bosses defy ministers' calls and refuse to take in hospital patients who haven't been tested for coronavirus

Is it any wonder the UK government is hiding away and not reconvening parliament so they can avoid scrutiny on the numbers of elderly patients that have died and why sufficient PPE has not been available to all who look after people in the UK.

Coronavirus has already torn through care homes across the country killing scores of vulnerable residents, with the Alzheimer’s Society warning at least half are reporting cases.

But ministers have been accused of ‘crimes against the elderly’ for denying care homes coronavirus tests – making it extremely hard to contain outbreaks – and thousands of dementia patients are said to be at risk of being ‘abandoned’ to the disease, the Alzheimer’s Society warned. The Government is also facing demands to publish daily coronavirus care home death figures after claims there could be hundreds more fatalities than official statistics show.

threeball · 13-04-2020 07:38AM

AllForIt wrote: »

I hope those foreign nurses aren't required in the country they came from.

They weren't actually, their countries have a pretty good handle on it, which is more than can be said for the UK.

Enzokk · 13-04-2020 07:45AM

As for the scoring system, here it is apparently,

EVaJBz3XsAEWfNo?format=jpg&name=medium

From this tweet,

https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1249336901313667074?s=20

And finally it seems like the Nightingale Hospital is expecting an influx of patients in the next week as well,

Edit: Tweet has been deleted it seems, showed an email telling staff they are expecting more patients at the new hospital.

LuckyLloyd · 13-04-2020 10:36AM

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249127908876128259.html

Good summation of the situation.

Enzokk · 13-04-2020 11:09AM

He might not be your type of cake, but James O'Brien seems to have it figured out,

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1249636034482188290?s=20

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1249636039636983811?s=20

The worrying thing I have seen mentioned is that the people in charge are the same ones who has avoided all scrutiny of their part in comitting the illegalities during the Brexit referendum, to the point of being found in contempt of Parliament. They have experience in avoiding questions and scrutiny and some of the press seem more than willing to facilitate this. They are now in charge and I fear that they will be able to avoid scrutiny for their roles during this crises.

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 11:25AM

Enzokk wrote: »

He might not be your type of cake, but James O'Brien seems to have it figured out,

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1249636034482188290?s=20

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1249636039636983811?s=20

The worrying thing I have seen mentioned is that the people in charge are the same ones who has avoided all scrutiny of their part in comitting the illegalities during the Brexit referendum, to the point of being found in contempt of Parliament. They have experience in avoiding questions and scrutiny and some of the press seem more than willing to facilitate this. They are now in charge and I fear that they will be able to avoid scrutiny for their roles during this crises.

Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

Joe_ Public · 13-04-2020 11:40AM

Speaking of scrutiny, still no word from those on Dominic watch, who seems to be almost uniquely stretching the government's 7 day self isolation rule out a bit. No doubt he's right now in the middle of a marathon blog piece telling us all what the outside the box weirdo pseudo scientists are thinking.

I read this disturbing piece about possible data breaches in yesterday's observer and the only thing that surprised me was how long it took before it got to Cummings..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/uk-government-using-confidential-patient-data-in-coronavirus-response

nacho libre · 13-04-2020 11:48AM

Enzokk wrote: »

Someone is salty, but I can add to the saltiness. I hope the £625 fee per year proposed by Johnson that foreigners like those 2 will need to pay to use the system they will be working in goes to build up the pandemic stockpile that his party allowed to dwindle by more than £325m since they have been in charge.

Calls to scrap ‘immoral’ NHS fee for foreign staff

Revealed: value of UK pandemic stockpile fell by 40% in six years

So the Daily Mail is now reporting on the care homes fighting back on not accepting patients discharged from hospital and who has not been cleared by a test from Covid-19.

Care homes revolt: Worries nursing home bosses defy ministers' calls and refuse to take in hospital patients who haven't been tested for coronavirus

Is it any wonder the UK government is hiding away and not reconvening parliament so they can avoid scrutiny on the numbers of elderly patients that have died and why sufficient PPE has not been available to all who look after people in the UK.

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 11:49AM

So much reportage on under-reporting in Britain. No wonder the IHME model is predicting more deaths than the British government's advisors (though the Wellcome Trust head admitted yesterday that Britain will probably be the most affected country in Europe).

Here's a former Public Health director stating that the death toll could be double the official figures.

Joe_ Public · 13-04-2020 11:54AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So much reportage on under-reporting in Britain. No wonder the IHME model is predicting more deaths than the British government's advisors (though the Wellcome Trust head admitted yesterday that Britain will probably be the most affected country in Europe).

Here's a former Public Health director stating that the death toll could be double the official figures.

We've known for days/weeks they were significantly under reporting the figures. Feels like they've only discovered that there in the past two days. I'd very much like to trust their charts showing hospital admissions levelling off, among other hopeful trends, but not sure i could do so implicitly.

devnull · 13-04-2020 12:03PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

We've known for days/weeks they were significantly under reporting the figures. Feels like they've only discovered that there in the past two days. I'd very much like to trust their charts showing hospital admissions levelling off, among other hopeful trends, but not sure i could do so implicitly.

In fairness recently Sky have been at pains to point out over recent days that the death figures do not include anything but hospital deaths and John Ashton and others has been on a fair few times talking about these things on there.

I expect he will get a pile-on now from all the Tory activists now, I see it's already started with the usual politicisation of people's deaths claiming that Ashton cannot be trusted because he is a Labour Stooge and therefore is not neutral, whilst claiming political point scoring, when the only ones to bring up politics were them

The flaw in their logic is that if Ashton is biased because he is a Labour supporter, then doesn't that mean they have a hypothesis that political affiliation is influencing what is being said, therefore by the nature of that hypothesis, they and their party also cannot be trusted. But I'm sure they'll forget that.

Joe_ Public · 13-04-2020 12:10PM

devnull wrote: »

In fairness recently Sky have been at pains to point out over recent days that the death figures do not include anything but hospital deaths and John Ashton and others has been on a fair few times talking about these things on there.

I expect he will get a pile-on now from all the Tory activists now, I see it's already started with the usual politicisation of people's deaths claiming that Ashton cannot be trusted because he is a Labour Stooge and therefore is not neutral, whilst claiming political point scoring, when the only ones to bring up politics were them

The flaw in their logic is that if Ashton is biased because he is a Labour supporter, then doesn't that mean they have a hypothesis that political affiliation is influencing what is being said, therefore by the nature of that hypothesis, they and their party also cannot be trusted. But I'm sure they'll forget that.

I heard Vallance talking on this during the week, arguing that the DHSC figures were more useful to them because they came faster. I mean, didnt seem to count that they might not give the full picture. And this is what they are supposedly adapting and evolving strategy by?

Other thing, as latest ONS figures indicated, they are significantly under reporting in hospital deaths too. Seems an age since we last had an ONS update, dont know why that is. Scotland say they are updating figures weekly.

Joe_ Public · 13-04-2020 12:22PM

The last ONS figures were released either march 26 or 27, showing inconclusively that the official figures were a gross misrepresentation of the actual truth. Thats going on two weeks now so, while welcome, I'd be somewhat reluctant to hand out laurels to media groups for finally catching up.

theological · 13-04-2020 12:26PM

Matt Hancock mentioned that there's a new app in development for contact tracing. It sounds pretty interesting. From the Guardian live feed this morning:

If 60% of the population used the contact tracing app currently being developed by the NHS, the country’s coronavirus epidemic could be suppressed, said Christophe Fraser, a professor at the University of Oxford helping to create it.
“If 60% of population were to use this app and adhere to it, that could be enough to suppress the epidemic,” the told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
However, smaller uptakes would also be effective he said.
Explaining how the app works, Fraser said: “It enables different phones that have the app installed to exchange low energy Bluetooth signals
“Over a period of time, as you move around and have contacts with people, your phone has a recorded anonymised ID of people who you have been in contact with.
“If you develop Covid, an anonymous message is sent to those contacts advising them to social distance and quarantine themselves, and look out for symptoms.”

He said people would be free to choose whether they download the app, and would consent to their phone exchanging the Bluetooth signals and sending out the anonymised details of your whereabouts in the case of an infection.

I thought initially when I heard this that this would involve huge swathes of personal data being shared, but it looks like it will use anonymised id's and Bluetooth for determining people you were in contact with.

I think they said that the code would be publicly available also which should be interesting to look at.

It seems like a potentially useful aid in allowing for some of the measures to be loosened longer term.

MadYaker · 13-04-2020 12:41PM

theological wrote: »

Matt Hancock mentioned that there's a new app in development for contact tracing. It sounds pretty interesting. From the Guardian live feed this morning:

I thought initially when I heard this that this would involve huge swathes of personal data being shared, but it looks like it will use anonymised id's and Bluetooth for determining people you were in contact with.

I think they said that the code would be publicly available also which should be interesting to look at.

It seems like a potentially useful aid in allowing for some of the measures to be loosened longer term.

South Koreans and China have been doing this for a while now i expect to see it everywhere soon. There are questions over personal privacy with how the governments in SK and China are using it but it seems effective.

A Dub in Glasgo · 13-04-2020 12:47PM

Scotland:
In hospital: 1,797
In ICU: 211
Total confirmed cases: 6,067 (+155) two areas still to give testing figures
Total deaths with confirmed COVID-19: 575 (+9)

theological · 13-04-2020 12:53PM

MadYaker wrote: »

South Koreans and China have been doing this for a while now i expect to see it everywhere soon. There are questions over personal privacy with how the governments in SK and China are using it but it seems effective.

It depends on how the app is built. If it relies on Bluetooth and not location services it should be able to be done entirely anonymously but that remains to be seen.

biko · 13-04-2020 01:11PM

Police smashed a residents door in looking for 'social gatherings'.
https://twitter.com/BanTheBBC/status/1249598512427347969

Seth Brundle · 13-04-2020 01:21PM

biko wrote: »

Police smashed a residents door in looking for 'social gatherings'.
https://twitter.com/BanTheBBC/status/1249598512427347969

I'm surprised that the police weren't wearing gloves yet touching everywhere they could.

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 01:24PM

biko wrote: »

Police smashed a residents door in looking for 'social gatherings'.
https://twitter.com/BanTheBBC/status/1249598512427347969

Charming person.

RasTa · 13-04-2020 01:33PM

Typical fool, all he had to do was open the door. However no, he starts filming after refusing to open the door.

Dave0301 · 13-04-2020 01:39PM

biko wrote: »

Police smashed a residents door in looking for 'social gatherings'.
https://twitter.com/BanTheBBC/status/1249598512427347969

Refused to open the door to police because of social distancing rules...then proceeds to get right in their face so he can verbally abuse them and record them.

Needs a good belt of a baton across his jaw.

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 01:51PM

Dave0301 wrote: »

Refused to open the door to police because of social distancing rules...then proceeds to get right in their face so he can verbally abuse them and record them.

Needs a good belt of a baton across his jaw.

I know a few Guards who would have smashed more than his door if he behaved like that towards them.

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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