The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

dfx- · 10-04-2020 05:40PM

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Where?

I'm looking out on the biggest park in the city I am in and there is no-one around. The city in general is deserted.

The media are probably hanging around the likeliest spots around the coasts and London parks.

Timberrrrrrrr · 10-04-2020 05:43PM

dfx- wrote: »

I'm looking out on the biggest park in the city I am in and there is no-one around. The city in general is deserted.

The media are probably hanging around the likeliest spots around the coasts and London parks.

Same here, was in work earlier, drove home and seen about 20 people in total during the 15 minutes. This included other drivers, passed by a popular park that would normally be busy on a day like today and seen one man walking his 2 dogs (could have been more further in the park).

RobMc59 · 10-04-2020 08:08PM

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Same here, was in work earlier, drove home and seen about 20 people in total during the 15 minutes. This included other drivers, passed by a popular park that would normally be busy on a day like today and seen one man walking his 2 dogs (could have been more further in the park).

Ditto,except driving into work on outskirts of Liverpool this evening, normally bumper to bumper but virtually deserted the whole journey.

10-04-2020 08:11PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

French not taking any messing. I'm surprised that the UK aviation authority allowed it to take off to be honest.
French police turn back private jet of holidaymakers from UK
Ten flew into Marseille-Provence airport to be taken by helicopter to luxury Cannes villa

"The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25"

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 10-04-2020 08:17PM

Deleted User wrote: »

"The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25"

Lol, my favourite part of the story too! :pac:

21-C380-D2-B1-C3-4074-8-C9-C-D991-B5271-DA9.jpg?dl=1

Water John · 10-04-2020 08:53PM

Boris said he felt like, he was hit by a number of buses. I suppose one of them had £350M written on the side of it.
I wish him a good recovery.

2pints · 11-04-2020 12:08AM

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Where?

( link broken as new user) news.sky.com/video/coronavirus-people-seen-flouting-lockdown-on-easter-weekend-despite-police-warnings-11971681
Plus local to my area, people getting in their cars to travel to a rural road and follow a path into a bit of woodlands for a "party" people out and about sunbathing, cars parked up aat local beauty spots and so on

Guy:Incognito · 11-04-2020 01:26AM

https://twitter.com/bbcstudios/status/1248700082515587078

Holby city uses real medical equipment on set. Who'da thunk it.

Guy:Incognito · 11-04-2020 01:31AM

Deleted User wrote: »

"The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25"

"A police source told BFMTV the pilot had been advised not to land the Embraer Legacy jet at Marseille-Provence, but did so anyway"

Id have assumed this was a fairly serious thing to do?

PommieBast · 11-04-2020 03:10AM

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

"A police source told BFMTV the pilot had been advised not to land the Embraer Legacy jet at Marseille-Provence, but did so anyway"

Id have assumed this was a fairly serious thing to do?

Just about OK as they were advised not to land rather than being refused landing clearance outright.

devnull · 11-04-2020 09:18AM

Interesting article
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/matt-hancock-urges-public-not-to-overuse-ppe

Smells like political deflection.

Having seen district nurses working in the community up close the last few days, they are, like any good infection control system, changing their masks, shields and their aprons after each appointment and sanitising their hands before entering and after leaving a house. All very sensible.

Although apparently there has been talk that using one set per patient on home visits is considered too much?

Joe_ Public · 11-04-2020 09:55AM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So they're actually doing the tests (does the tweet about the third pillar not contradict this?)
Does anyone know how many tests have been completed?

I dont think they are doing these antibody tests in the uk yet, they just appear to be saying they will be ready to roll them out soon.

Germany appear to have already started with the first reports coming in. Interesting thing in this piece is the assumption that anyone testing positive for the antibodies has clear immunity when i have heard lots of doctors and scientists say they simply dont know that yet or, if so, how long it might last.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

Joe_ Public · 11-04-2020 10:05AM

devnull wrote: »

Interesting article
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/10/matt-hancock-urges-public-not-to-overuse-ppe

Smells like political deflection.

Having seen district nurses working in the community up close the last few days, they are, like any good infection control system, changing their masks, shields and their aprons after each appointment and sanitising their hands before entering and after leaving a house. All very sensible.

Although apparently there has been talk that using one set per patient on home visits is considered too much?

It's shocking to read this stuff. From the article:

"Hancock and the chief nursing officer, Ruth May, declined to give a figure for how many healthcare staff have died after contracting the virus."

In another guardian piece yesterday about the death of a doctor i noted the phrases "AT LEAST the sixth doctor from a BAME background to die" and "BELIEVED TO BE the first Nhs worker in Scotland to die.".

They cannot be sure they are not losing track anymore, that's how grim things are.

S.M.B. · 11-04-2020 10:18AM

Mr Hancock told the BBC 19 NHS workers had died with coronavirus since the start of the outbreak.

This is on the BBC today but it's not clear when the quote was taken.

Joe_ Public · 11-04-2020 10:51AM

S.M.B. wrote: »

This is on the BBC today but it's not clear when the quote was taken.

I'm sure it's an up to date quote. 19 might be the official figure but the telegraph has a powerful piece running the obituaries of 21 nhs staff this morning. The actual figure may yet be higher.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/nhs-died-coronavirus-frontline-workers-victims/

dfx- · 11-04-2020 10:58AM

S.M.B. wrote: »

This is on the BBC today but it's not clear when the quote was taken.

He stated it on BBC Breakfast this morning. Presumably from the backlash of the non-answer yesterday.

They are doing that a lot.

Leroy42 · 11-04-2020 11:25AM

dfx- wrote: »

He stated it on BBC Breakfast this morning. Presumably from the backlash of the non-answer yesterday.

They are doing that a lot.

It wasn't just that he didn't answer, it was the way he simply handed off to the women with not a hint of him being either responsible or even thinking it was a relevant question for him to know the answer of.

They keep going on about Frontline workers, in effect that makes him their general. And when asked how many died he showed he didn't have a clue.

It was made worse by the women's bizarre and frankly condescending answer about getting permission from families! What for a total?

And Hancock has been one of their better media performers! I didn't hear the interview on BBC this morning but I'm guessing he was asked why he didn't know the answer yesterday or why he threw the question across to the woman instead of dealing with it himself.

Joe_ Public · 11-04-2020 11:36AM

Last week Hancock upset people when he was asked about the same subject and gave an answer saying "four doctors and SOME nurses" had died. The following day they had a senior nurses rep in to smooth over the hurt Hancocks casual remark had caused. Seems to indicate a chronic inability to learn as this situation moves on.

devnull · 11-04-2020 12:03PM

Community Nurse that came to my father this morning only had mask and apron rather than both with a shield. Has been told there is a shortage at the moment so they've had to ration the items, shield and mask can now only be used in patients with a cough and/or temperature until the trust has a bigger supply.

Memnoch · 11-04-2020 01:27PM

devnull wrote: »

Community Nurse that came to my father this morning only had mask and apron rather than both with a shield. Has been told there is a shortage at the moment so they've had to ration the items, shield and mask can now only be used in patients with a cough and/or temperature until the trust has a bigger supply.

The real story, that none of the British media seem to be focusing on, is that surgical masks offer little more than cosmetic protection against the virus.

Scientific consensus is inexorably moving towards the conclusion that the virus is airborne. It is not just present in large droplets when people cough or sneeze but is present when people breathe in micro droplets in their exhalation.

This explains why it is so contagious and spreads through asymptomatic people. So a surgical mask and an apron is not nearly sufficient to protect health workers. Neither is a shield because the virus will infect through the eyes as well.

You need goggles and an FFP2 (N95) respirator mask to block out the virus particles.

When it comes to PPE this is again an example of the lack of early leadership. Countries that were awake to the threat early stockpiled before the rest caught on and it became a situation of insane bidding wars between every country in the world.

The United States is very lucky in having a major manufacturer of FFP two based in the country and thus having domestic production which they can nationalize. This has allowed Trump to slightly make up for his slow action to at least procure these for US medical staff. No such get out of jail free cards are available to the United Kingdom however and so NHS staff are paying with their lives for the arrogance of Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings.

Hence all the noise about “appropriate” use of PPE. Authorities like public health England are trying to provide legal and political cover for the lack of essential equipment.

Professor Moriarty · 11-04-2020 01:39PM

From The Guardian:

A US institute that predicted deaths from Covid-19 in the UK would be the highest in Europe at 66,000 has revised down its forecasts as a result of new data.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, based at the University of Washington in Seattle, now predicts 37,494 deaths in the UK by 4 August, although it said the figure could be between 26,000 and 62,500. Despite the lower figure, it still predicts the UK will have the highest death toll in Europe. Daily deaths at the peak, which the institute still says should be around 17 April, are predicted to be 1,674, or within a range of 650 to 4,000.

The IHME is the leading collector and analyst of global disease data in the world. It says it now recognises that its prediction last week of 66,000 deaths caused alarm. Models are only as good as the data that goes into them. Having included more recent figures, as the institute said it would, the picture has changed.

“IHME expects, going forward, that as the model has more data, the range of possible forecasts likely will narrow,” said a spokesman.

And:

In a note on its website, the IHME explained how it came to the earlier high figures. “Our initial release of EEA country predictions included reported daily deaths through 5 April. For the United Kingdom, daily death data during the week prior to 5 April showed sharp and steadily increasing cumulative daily deaths,” it said.

“Since our last release, we have been able to include four more days of reported daily deaths for the UK (6, 7, 8, 9 April).” A slower rate of increase in deaths, which will have been due to the physical distancing measures taking effect, and better data on what happened in other places in the world where epidemics had peaked, “has resulted in notably lower average projections for the UK,” it said.

It had also received updated information on bed capacity and ICU capacity, it said, and had reduced its forecasts on shortages of those.

So they've reduced their forecast from 67,000 to a possible 37,000 deaths by August 4th.

blinding · 11-04-2020 01:44PM

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbcstudios/status/1248700082515587078

Holby city uses real medical equipment on set. Who'da thunk it.

And why, What a waste.

Memnoch · 11-04-2020 01:45PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From The Guardian:

A US institute that predicted deaths from Covid-19 in the UK would be the highest in Europe at 66,000 has revised down its forecasts as a result of new data.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, based at the University of Washington in Seattle, now predicts 37,494 deaths in the UK by 4 August, although it said the figure could be between 26,000 and 62,500. Despite the lower figure, it still predicts the UK will have the highest death toll in Europe. Daily deaths at the peak, which the institute still says should be around 17 April, are predicted to be 1,674, or within a range of 650 to 4,000.

The IHME is the leading collector and analyst of global disease data in the world. It says it now recognises that its prediction last week of 66,000 deaths caused alarm. Models are only as good as the data that goes into them. Having included more recent figures, as the institute said it would, the picture has changed.

“IHME expects, going forward, that as the model has more data, the range of possible forecasts likely will narrow,” said a spokesman.

And:

In a note on its website, the IHME explained how it came to the earlier high figures. “Our initial release of EEA country predictions included reported daily deaths through 5 April. For the United Kingdom, daily death data during the week prior to 5 April showed sharp and steadily increasing cumulative daily deaths,” it said.

“Since our last release, we have been able to include four more days of reported daily deaths for the UK (6, 7, 8, 9 April).” A slower rate of increase in deaths, which will have been due to the physical distancing measures taking effect, and better data on what happened in other places in the world where epidemics had peaked, “has resulted in notably lower average projections for the UK,” it said.

It had also received updated information on bed capacity and ICU capacity, it said, and had reduced its forecasts on shortages of those.

So they've reduced their forecast from 67,000 to a possible 37,000 deaths by August 4th.

Both estimations are flawed since the UK is undertesting and letting a lot of people die in the community and simply not counting them. The real number will be 25-100% greater than recorded.

Professor Moriarty · 11-04-2020 01:55PM

Memnoch wrote: »

Both estimations are flawed since the UK is undertesting and letting a lot of people die in the community and simply not counting them. The real number will be 25-100% greater than recorded.

Whichever way you look at it, the UK government has grossly mismanaged the crisis. An underfunded and unprepared health service, lack of equipment, complacency, lies and under-reporting.

theological · 11-04-2020 01:56PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From The Guardian:

A US institute that predicted deaths from Covid-19 in the UK would be the highest in Europe at 66,000 has revised down its forecasts as a result of new data.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, based at the University of Washington in Seattle, now predicts 37,494 deaths in the UK by 4 August, although it said the figure could be between 26,000 and 62,500. Despite the lower figure, it still predicts the UK will have the highest death toll in Europe. Daily deaths at the peak, which the institute still says should be around 17 April, are predicted to be 1,674, or within a range of 650 to 4,000.

The IHME is the leading collector and analyst of global disease data in the world. It says it now recognises that its prediction last week of 66,000 deaths caused alarm. Models are only as good as the data that goes into them. Having included more recent figures, as the institute said it would, the picture has changed.

“IHME expects, going forward, that as the model has more data, the range of possible forecasts likely will narrow,” said a spokesman.

And:

In a note on its website, the IHME explained how it came to the earlier high figures. “Our initial release of EEA country predictions included reported daily deaths through 5 April. For the United Kingdom, daily death data during the week prior to 5 April showed sharp and steadily increasing cumulative daily deaths,” it said.

“Since our last release, we have been able to include four more days of reported daily deaths for the UK (6, 7, 8, 9 April).” A slower rate of increase in deaths, which will have been due to the physical distancing measures taking effect, and better data on what happened in other places in the world where epidemics had peaked, “has resulted in notably lower average projections for the UK,” it said.

It had also received updated information on bed capacity and ICU capacity, it said, and had reduced its forecasts on shortages of those.

So they've reduced their forecast from 67,000 to a possible 37,000 deaths by August 4th.

Goodness. At this rate of reduction in the data they night end up meeting the British modellers half way or even fully!

Joe_ Public · 11-04-2020 02:01PM

Memnoch wrote: »

Both estimations are flawed since the UK is undertesting and letting a lot of people die in the community and simply not counting them. The real number will be 25-100% greater than recorded.

You're right. I think all these models have only very limited use at best. The real story is exactly how underreported all their current data is.

Professor Moriarty · 11-04-2020 02:08PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

You're right. I think all these models have only very limited use at best. The real story is exactly how underreported all their current data is.

The modelling is the best you can get. It is limited by the availability of data. They've got more data so their model is more accurate. That trend will continue especially as the UK government is forced to be more honest by public opinion.

duffman13 · 11-04-2020 02:09PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I'm sure it's an up to date quote. 19 might be the official figure but the telegraph has a powerful piece running the obituaries of 21 nhs staff this morning. The actual figure may yet be higher.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/nhs-died-coronavirus-frontline-workers-victims/

Jesus thats a tough read. The father daughter dieing within 24 hours of each other

The vast majority of them are from ethnic minorities, I know the NHS is generally heavily supported from overseas workers however I wonder is there something in their genetic make up that makes them more prone to a serious dose. In the states they were saying it seems to be disproportianetly affecting ethnic backgrounds. Initially thought it might be a wealth/poverty divide there but a bit of a trend.

Memnoch · 11-04-2020 02:13PM

theological wrote: »

Goodness. At this rate of reduction in the data they night end up meeting the British modellers half way or even fully!

Considering that they are reliant on falsified data from the British government this is inevitable.

easypazz · 11-04-2020 02:17PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So they've reduced their forecast from 67,000 to a possible 37,000 deaths by August 4th.

A stopped clock is right twice a day.

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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