The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

Enzokk · 09-04-2020 03:33PM

This could get so much worse for the UK as well,

https://twitter.com/eleanorhayward/status/1248165133064581121?s=20

Story in the, notorious tough on Johnson :rolleyes:, Daily Mail about care homes in the UK and the potential disaster that is waiting to explode if they haven't followed through on the WHO advice (test, test, test) and start testing those that are caring for the most at risk group to see who is a loaded gun.

09-04-2020 03:41PM

Enzokk wrote: »

So in effect we in Ireland closed our schools 3 weeks before the UK, seeing as we are 2 weeks behind the UK in the progression of the epidemic. Are you still happy that the government followed either flawed advice or ignored the advice that you suspect Ireland also had and acted, in your views, 3 weeks earlier?

If the UK policy decisions are responsible for the difference in the death rate between the UK and Ireland, how come there is no difference in the rate between the Republic and the north (where schools remained open)?

If those policy decisions were obviously at fault you should be seeing far more people dying in the north.

The alternative explanation is that it spread faster and earlier in the UK, and particularly London, because it is a large city with a lot of international travel in and out. An earlier lockdown might have had some effect but the damage was almost certainly already done by the time things got serious.

BTW nobody will really know who handled this well for a year or even 2 years. A month ago we were being told what a great job Singapore did as if it was over. Now they are recording record increases in cases and talking about converting rooftops to gardens so they don't starve.

You can't evaluate anything until we come out the other side.

PommieBast · 09-04-2020 03:50PM

gmisk wrote: »

It's clear a lot of people in the UK at least aren't taking this seriously.
660 parties had to be shut down in a single weekend in Manchester.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-52221688

"included 494 house parties - some with DJs, fireworks and bouncy castles" :eek:

Enzokk · 09-04-2020 04:21PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If the UK policy decisions are responsible for the difference in the death rate between the UK and Ireland, how come there is no difference in the rate between the Republic and the north (where schools remained open)?

If those policy decisions were obviously at fault you should be seeing far more people dying in the north.

The alternative explanation is that it spread faster and earlier in the UK, and particularly London, because it is a large city with a lot of international travel in and out. An earlier lockdown might have had some effect but the damage was almost certainly already done by the time things got serious.

BTW nobody will really know who handled this well for a year or even 2 years. A month ago we were being told what a great job Singapore did as if it was over. Now they are recording record increases in cases and talking about converting rooftops to gardens so they don't starve.

You can't evaluate anything until we come out the other side.

I am aware of that, as even the differences in populations demographics will have an effect on how a nation fares in comparison to others. The differences on why NI isn't displaying the numbers as much as the UK could be down to the fact that it is smaller and spread out more than the UK. You have to wonder what impact the different advice people will have been listening to from here played a role as well. Let's be honest here, Foster and her bunch would have been waiting for Johnson to tell them what to do and SF would have been more inclined to listen to the advice that comes sources other than the UK.

threeball · 09-04-2020 04:27PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I am aware of that, as even the differences in populations demographics will have an effect on how a nation fares in comparison to others. The differences on why NI isn't displaying the numbers as much as the UK could be down to the fact that it is smaller and spread out more than the UK. You have to wonder what impact the different advice people will have been listening to from here played a role as well. Let's be honest here, Foster and her bunch would have been waiting for Johnson to tell them what to do and SF would have been more inclined to listen to the advice that comes sources other than the UK.

Look at scotland. Similar demographics and density but multiple times our death rate. Very much in line with UK rates. Thats your answer about how successful the strategy was.

09-04-2020 04:44PM

threeball wrote: »

Look at scotland. Similar demographics and density but multiple times our death rate. Very much in line with UK rates. Thats your answer about how successful the strategy was.

Why look at Scotland?

Why not look at the part of the UK that shares this island with us?

We were told repeatedly that the north refusing to close schools and lockdown was a clear and present danger to us in the south. It was all over these boards. "people are going to be swarming over the border" etc.

As it happens, the deaths per population number is currently lower in the North.

How is that possible? If we all agree that the lack of school closures and lockdowns have an obvious effect, that makes no sense at all.

Or just possibly, other factors are at play.

Joe_ Public · 09-04-2020 04:52PM

I wouldn't be so sure NI are ahead of us here on numbers of fatalities, given the way those figures are being reported. Irelands are inclusive of nursing homes for example, whereas the uk is only amending figures up to a week or more after official department releases. It may be that we are in line together, that thst makes sense given we're all the same island and a week or so in the different lockdown measures has made less difference that some maybe forecast.

theological · 09-04-2020 05:01PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If the UK policy decisions are responsible for the difference in the death rate between the UK and Ireland, how come there is no difference in the rate between the Republic and the north (where schools remained open)?

If those policy decisions were obviously at fault you should be seeing far more people dying in the north.

The alternative explanation is that it spread faster and earlier in the UK, and particularly London, because it is a large city with a lot of international travel in and out. An earlier lockdown might have had some effect but the damage was almost certainly already done by the time things got serious.

BTW nobody will really know who handled this well for a year or even 2 years. A month ago we were being told what a great job Singapore did as if it was over. Now they are recording record increases in cases and talking about converting rooftops to gardens so they don't starve.

You can't evaluate anything until we come out the other side.

Britain is ahead of Ireland in the epidemic so comparing the numbers is like comparing apples and oranges. Yet many insist it is meaningful.

NI and the Republic are probably at a similar stage.

I agree with your concluding sentence. Ultimately the lessons learned will be from looking backwards on the other side of the crisis.

Professor Moriarty · 09-04-2020 05:04PM

From the Irish Times:

Infectious disease expert Dr Paddy Mallon said the Irish Government acted at the right time, unlike in the United Kingdom where an event such as Cheltenham was allowed proceed. Consequently, there are now “tens of thousands” of cases.

It was “one of the seminal” events that led to wider spread of the virus in the UK, Dr Mallon told Newstalk Breakfast.

robinph · 09-04-2020 05:10PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From the Irish Times:

Infectious disease expert Dr Paddy Mallon said the Irish Government acted at the right time, unlike in the United Kingdom where an event such as Cheltenham was allowed proceed. Consequently, there are now “tens of thousands” of cases.

It was “one of the seminal” events that led to wider spread of the virus in the UK, Dr Mallon told Newstalk Breakfast.

Seems like Dr Mallon might not be aware that Cheltenham is an Irish party that just happens to be hosted in a UK venue if he thinks any effect of it happening will only be felt in the UK.

Professor Moriarty · 09-04-2020 05:12PM

robinph wrote: »

Seems like Dr Mallon might not be aware that Cheltenham is an Irish party that just happens to be hosted in a UK venue if he thinks any effect of it happening will only be felt in the UK.

The same thought occurred to me. However, Dr Mallon believes otherwise.

09-04-2020 05:12PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From the Irish Times:

Infectious disease expert Dr Paddy Mallon said the Irish Government acted at the right time, unlike in the United Kingdom where an event such as Cheltenham was allowed proceed. Consequently, there are now “tens of thousands” of cases.

It was “one of the seminal” events that led to wider spread of the virus in the UK, Dr Mallon told Newstalk Breakfast.

Given that about 10,000 Irish people travel to Cheltenham, as a percentage of the population far, far higher than the UK population attending, that makes literally no sense.

I haven't seen any real evidence anywhere that Cheltenham had a major impact on numbers. It may well have done, it certainly sounds plausible, but there's no clear evidence at this moment in time.

But like I say above, if it was going to hit one country hard it would be us, not the UK.

Tea Shock · 09-04-2020 05:16PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Why look at Scotland?

Why not look at the part of the UK that shares this island with us?

We were told repeatedly that the north refusing to close schools and lockdown was a clear and present danger to us in the south. It was all over these boards. "people are going to be swarming over the border" etc.

As it happens, the deaths per population number is currently lower in the North.

How is that possible? If we all agree that the lack of school closures and lockdowns have an obvious effect, that makes no sense at all.

Or just possibly, other factors are at play.

There was a difference of 5 school days between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland closing their schools. It's hardly conclusive! We'll never know what that difference would have been had they kept their stance.

Professor Moriarty · 09-04-2020 05:16PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Given that about 10,000 Irish people travel to Cheltenham, as a percentage of the population far, far higher than the UK population attending, that makes literally no sense.

I haven't seen any real evidence anywhere that Cheltenham had a major impact on numbers. It may well have done, it certainly sounds plausible, but there's no clear evidence at this moment in time.

But like I say above, if it was going to hit one country hard it would be us, not the UK.

Well, Dr Mallon is an infection expert. So he's either lying or he was away on a cruise when the Cheltenham controversy was happening here.

alchemist33 · 09-04-2020 05:20PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Why look at Scotland?

Why not look at the part of the UK that shares this island with us?

We were told repeatedly that the north refusing to close schools and lockdown was a clear and present danger to us in the south. It was all over these boards. "people are going to be swarming over the border" etc.

As it happens, the deaths per population number is currently lower in the North.

How is that possible? If we all agree that the lack of school closures and lockdowns have an obvious effect, that makes no sense at all.

Or just possibly, other factors are at play.

I work in healthcare in the north. I could see the roads and streets getting emptier maybe a day or two after here. Even in our own service we were taking it more seriously than the central UK government seemed to. This was driven more by individuals than decision-making at the top. People were crying out for schools to be closed - and some schools took the decision themselves - while Arlene kept to the UK line.

I think exposure to southern media and people, especially in the border counties, led to NI being somewhere intermediate between the UK and Ireland in its reponse.

09-04-2020 05:23PM

alchemist33 wrote: »

I work in healthcare in the north. I could see the roads and streets getting emptier maybe a day or two after here. Even in our own service we were taking it more seriously than the central UK government seemed to. This was driven more by individuals than decision-making at the top. People were crying out for schools to be closed - and some schools took the decision themselves - while Arlene kept to the UK line.

I think exposure to southern media and people, especially in the border counties, led to NI being somewhere intermediate between the UK and Ireland in its reponse.

I think there is definitely some truth in that.

However there was an awful lot of mood music during the disparity in responses to the effect of impending disaster up there etc etc. Of course, that might still happen - we don't know yet.

BTW the very best of luck to you over the coming months.

Reebrock · 09-04-2020 05:24PM

I really fear that the good weather projected for this weekend is going to put thousands of people out on the streets, in parks, visiting friends etc.

Tea Shock · 09-04-2020 05:24PM

robinph wrote: »

Seems like Dr Mallon might not be aware that Cheltenham is an Irish party that just happens to be hosted in a UK venue if he thinks any effect of it happening will only be felt in the UK.

He is talking about the Government. The Irish Government cannot shut down something hosted in a UK venue. Cheltenham is only one example. There are other examples. Mates of mine in Merseyside are still fuming that fans from Athletico Madrid of all places were allowed into the city for a Champions League game that was allowed to proceed - and on the 11th of March FFS!

09-04-2020 05:30PM

This is pure speculation but I suspect a major contributing factor is going to be general health of populations. There are huge swathes of people in the UK who are living in relative poverty and have many of the health complications that go with it. I think that is less of a factor here. Like I say though, pure speculation, might prove to be totally wrong.

Joe_ Public · 09-04-2020 06:05PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This is pure speculation but I suspect a major contributing factor is going to be general health of populations. There are huge swathes of people in the UK who are living in relative poverty and have many of the health complications that go with it. I think that is less of a factor here. Like I say though, pure speculation, might prove to be totally wrong.

I would think some truth in that definitely. Emily Maitlis certainly touched on the theme of poverty very powerfully on newsnight, the assumption that the virus knew no boundaries between rich and poor - a"myth that needed debunking."

https://twitter.com/Barrok/status/1248178078871846912?s=20

Junkyard Tom · 09-04-2020 06:05PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Why not look at the part of the UK that shares this island with us?

People in the northeast of Ireland were looking at the south acting decisively and comparing it with Britain's response. I think a lot of people up north took their kids out of school and started cocooning their vulnerable family members in line with the south.

So it may turn out that those who ignored London's laissez-faire approach, listened to Sinn Fein in the north, and were paying attention to Dublin may have kept the numbers of deaths/infections comparatively low.

bilston · 09-04-2020 06:37PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

People in the northeast of Ireland were looking at the south acting decisively and comparing it with Britain's response. I think a lot of people up north took their kids out of school and started cocooning their vulnerable family members in line with the south.

So it may turn out that those who ignored London's laissez-faire approach, listened to Sinn Fein in the north, and were paying attention to Dublin may have kept the numbers of deaths/infections comparatively low.

Why the focus on how the people in County Antrim have been looking at the Covid 19 outbreak?

bilston · 09-04-2020 07:04PM

The UK is following a similar trend to countries it's size (Italy, Spain and France), Germany has done better of course.

Even within the UK there are differences. Northern Ireland is doing better than the rest of the UK with about 1.1% of overall deaths compared to having 2.7% of the population. Northern Ireland is also faring better than the Republic with 23.8% of Irish deaths compared to it's 27.7% share of the population, but it's marginal enough and could be a different story in a week's time.

The thing about Northern Ireland is that is a lot more isolated than the rest of the UK and looking at Ireland as a whole, I assume many deaths have come from Dublin which is the biggest city in the island (similar story in cities like London, Madrid, New York and Paris) and because Dublin is in the Republic that might explain why there are more deaths in the South than North per share of population.

Something else that I read today, specific to Northern Ireland, was that authorities believe that there peak/surge will hit different parts of Northern Ireland at different times. Belfast is believed to be hitting the surge now and Derry is expected to be a week behind. I thought it was interesting that even in a place as small as Northern Ireland there would be those differences.

My final point is that Northern Ireland may be a couple of days behind the South as well which may account for the slight difference in deaths.

Joe_ Public · 09-04-2020 07:20PM

You have to take different reporting procedures into account. Vallance admitted that in todays press conference, the UK are not counting deaths where covid-19 is only suspected of being the cause and nor do they include non-hospital deaths which Ireland is doing. So that may account for why the north appears to be doing better, the real story may be it is about the same or maybe some degree worse.

theological · 09-04-2020 07:57PM

I didn't watch the full briefing but lots of good news on the Guardian live feed.

Deaths are at 881 which looks like fewer than yesterday.

Johnson is back on a regular ward so hopefully he'll be back in post soon.

Patrick Vallance said we're beginning to see a flattening off in the numbers of cases and in hospital admissions.

Hopefully the peak is coming soon.

Joe_ Public · 09-04-2020 08:09PM

Vallance said the peak was at least two weeks away. Did you miss that bit?

theological · 09-04-2020 08:17PM

I just saw the live feed on the Guardian as I say.

These graphs are encouraging!

Hospital beds look like they are flattening:

Critical care looks like it is flattening but if hospital beds are flattening this will feed through.

This will feed through to death figures in a few weeks also.

The measures are starting to bear fruit. This is great.

IamtheWalrus · 09-04-2020 08:19PM

I wonder is there a post in the UK titled 'Irish response to Covid-19'

theological · 09-04-2020 08:23PM

IamtheWalrus wrote: »

I wonder is there a post in the UK titled 'Irish response to Covid-19'

There probably isn't because I suspect most Brits wish us well while there are a few people on here who seem to be unable to do this in return. This is a vicious virus that we need to stand together on rather than engaging in point scoring.

I happen to have an interest in seeing both countries succeed having grown up in one and living in another.

A Dub in Glasgo · 09-04-2020 08:25PM

IamtheWalrus wrote: »

I wonder is there a post in the UK titled 'Irish response to Covid-19'

Well some of us are Irish but living in the UK so the UK response is very much on our minds

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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