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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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Comments

  • #9632
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,437 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    I posted this in Devore's Hope thread, but it's worth repeating in a main daily thread ...

    Infection rate of those with Covid-19 has dropped, latest figures show


    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0404/1128496-covid-19-figures/?fbclid=IwAR29MDeTiVSQh2zyzdg0lW8XSs5qgUlXlQQKXeWi3exUCN4U2CoiRMX_U3c


    "The number of people that a person with Covid-19 is infecting in Ireland is reducing.

    The "RE" number, or the reproductive rate of the virus, refers to how many other people a confirmed case goes on to infect, and it is closely monitored by health officials.

    On 16 March, a person infected with Covid-19 here would "likely" infect another 4.3 people.

    Minister for Health Simon Harris said that by the end of March, this dropped to 2.5 people.

    At a news conference this afternoon, Mr Harris said that this is "real progress", but said we need to get this number below one. He said if we can reduce this figure to below one, it means the "virus doesn't sustain itself in the community".

    Mr Harris said that the next seven days will be "absolutely critical".
    The number of "close contacts" recorded for people with the virus has now reduced to three, down from around 20 a few weeks ago.

    Mr Harris said that this is because we are now "making it harder for the disease to spread".

    However he said, even though the rate of growth is slowing, it is still too high"

    Yes, ideally you'd want the new case growth rate well under 5% every day : that would be the first real sign things were starting to shift.


  • #9633
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    There's a standalone America/Trump thread here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058067359&page=4

    Maybe all the commentary on this loo laa's daily conferences should go there


  • #9634
    Bob24
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,886 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    Why did SARS not take off in the way this virus did? Canada was the only country outside of 4 or 5 countries in asia that got it in any way bad

    Possibly not the only one, but one reason is that SARS only became contagious once people had developed clear symptoms while Covid 19 can be contagious with no symptoms.

    Someone who feels sick will naturally reduce social interactions and it also made it easier to detect and isolate contagious people.


  • #9635
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,621 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Comparing Varadkar and Trump is apples and oranges, no pun intended.

    The US has a population of 350 million with the same air traffic as the rest of the world combined.

    Ireland has the population of a small US state.


  • #9636
    fin12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,934 ✭✭✭✭fin12


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    You probably think that's edgy or clever but in reality you need to have a look at how countries have handled this. I didn't vote FG but I can't fault his handling in terms of timing, level of response etc. Anything that wasn't perfect was a failing in every country.

    No that’s exactly what I believe.

    Sorry towns around the country cancelled their own parades before that c*nt decided we should.


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  • #9637
    storker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,768 ✭✭✭storker


    fin12 wrote: »
    That isn’t down to Leo. He is useless and always has been.

    Even that status would still put him way ahead of Trump.


  • #9638
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Are we including nursing home deaths in our figures? No-one seems to know.

    Did they not state at a press conference that all death figures here included hospital and non hospital deaths. Think they used clinical and non clinical terms.
    If anything, we seem to be over stating the deaths, it's almost like every death gets tested and if they are positive for covid19, it get added to the statistics.


  • #9639
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    fin12 wrote: »
    No that’s exactly what I believe.

    Sorry towns around the country cancelled their own parades before that c*nt decided we should.

    Around the same time Trump was claiming its just another flu right??

    Trump talked yesterday about banging models in the same veign as hundreds of thousands of deaths.

    He is a joke of a human. This reflects badly on those who elected him and continue to approve of him.


  • #9640
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 92,394 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Not sure there's much of a difference. The Italians have underreported deaths by a factor of 3 or 4.
    A lot of people have died of covid 19 and been buried without so much as a test.

    Are we including nursing home deaths in our figures? No-one seems to know.

    I think we are going by the median age most days


  • #9641
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 92,394 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Not sure there's much of a difference. The Italians have underreported deaths by a factor of 3 or 4.
    A lot of people have died of covid 19 and been buried without so much as a test.

    Are we including nursing home deaths in our figures? No-one seems to know.

    I think we are going by the median age most days


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  • #9642
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    The PPE situation looks worrying.


    Other countries have experienced similar problems with PPE shortage and the only source for PPE is from china and that stuff is of poor quality.


    How are other countries dealing with the PPE situation now? Like the Dutch got bad stuff from china. What are they doing for PPE?


    Are there any plans in Ireland? Can factories help with cleanroom wear?


  • #9643
    cadaliac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,904 ✭✭✭cadaliac


    fin12 wrote: »
    No that’s exactly what I believe.

    Sorry towns around the country cancelled their own parades before that c*nt decided we should.

    You need to figure out who is actually running the show and who are the "frontmen"
    The people controlling this mess are some of the best medical people on the planet.
    The Leo and other mouthpieces are just that. Mouthpieces.


  • #9644
    Bob24
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,886 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    I posted this in Devore's Hope thread, but it's worth repeating in a main daily thread ...

    Infection rate of those with Covid-19 has dropped, latest figures show


    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0404/1128496-covid-19-figures/?fbclid=IwAR29MDeTiVSQh2zyzdg0lW8XSs5qgUlXlQQKXeWi3exUCN4U2CoiRMX_U3c


    "The number of people that a person with Covid-19 is infecting in Ireland is reducing.

    The "RE" number, or the reproductive rate of the virus, refers to how many other people a confirmed case goes on to infect, and it is closely monitored by health officials.

    On 16 March, a person infected with Covid-19 here would "likely" infect another 4.3 people.

    Minister for Health Simon Harris said that by the end of March, this dropped to 2.5 people.

    At a news conference this afternoon, Mr Harris said that this is "real progress", but said we need to get this number below one. He said if we can reduce this figure to below one, it means the "virus doesn't sustain itself in the community".

    Mr Harris said that the next seven days will be "absolutely critical".
    The number of "close contacts" recorded for people with the virus has now reduced to three, down from around 20 a few weeks ago.

    Mr Harris said that this is because we are now "making it harder for the disease to spread".

    However he said, even though the rate of growth is slowing, it is still too high"

    As he correctly says if you want the number of infected people to drop you need the R0 to drop below 1. According to one study the super draconian measures in Wuhan brought it down to 0.3. We don’t need to go that far but if it is correct that we are currently at 2.5 it actually is pretty bad news as it means with our current measures the virus is still progressing pretty quickly.


  • #9645
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Strazdas wrote: »
    Yes, ideally you'd want the new case growth rate well under 5% every day : that would be the first real sign things were starting to shift.


    Fair point. I see we're now at 8% but that it's down on yesterday

    How does 8% compare to other major countries?


  • #9646
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 12,021 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    growleaves wrote: »
    I haven't looked into it really but I'm surprised that its considered such a wild theory. Isn't it basically the idea that radiation-emitting masts are emitting harmful radiation? Perhaps untrue but not exactly lizard people from the Planet Zygon.

    Many celebrities are now backing this theory in the UK, such as Amanda Holden and boxer Amir Khan and sharing it on social media, it really seems to be getting some traction.

    Having lived in the UK I'm seeing quite a few people sharing this theory as well, even those I would have thought were far too sensible to come out with this kind of thing.

    Even the Christian fundamentalists are getting in on the act and saying it's caused by the coming of the antichrist who is about to invoke a new world order unless we stop him.


  • #9647
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,583 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Did they not state at a press conference that all death figures here included hospital and non hospital deaths. Think they used clinical and non clinical terms.
    If anything, we seem to be over stating the deaths, it's almost like every death gets tested and if they are positive for covid19, it get added to the statistics.

    Missed it tonight, so can't say yes or no regarding the non hospital deaths, but it might be more accurate if they did/are given people believe Germany are hiding their figures by not recording covid as the cause of death if they can and France weren't including nursing homes originally, which seen the large increase occurring in their figures this week.


  • #9648
    Tippex
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,960 ✭✭✭Tippex


    blackcard wrote: »
    Over 50% of Americans approve of his handling of the crisis

    Thats because the polls are always done in Oregon state hospital ;)


  • #9649
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    You probably think that's edgy or clever but in reality you need to have a look at how countries have handled this. I didn't vote FG but I can't fault his handling in terms of timing, level of response etc. Anything that wasn't perfect was a failing in every country.
    Stop right there, implementing WHO, ECDC, Dept of Health, CMO recommendations as lagardly as possible is not leadership.

    Any Irish government of any complexion, caretaker or not, would be doing the same thing.

    We haven't had a leader or decisive minister in this country for decades, they are all creatures of the permanent government, which in turn abhors initiative, or radical change, and is perpetually in pursuit of greater and tighter degrees of control.

    Before rearing-up, check out the extremely centralising and restrictive 'Irish' implementations of EU directives.


  • #9650
    kenmc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,300 ✭✭✭kenmc


    circadian wrote: »
    I think refrigerated vans are hard enough to come by. Was talking to the wife about this a few days back. They could use the refrigerated vans for stuff that has to be kept in them and a separate delivery for all other items. Sure, it means two deliveries but it'll increase capacity. Most people are in all day now anyway.

    Not just are delivery trucks hard to come by, the ones that are available are being fcuking vandalized 😠

    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/supervalu-extremely-disappointed-as-vandals-significantly-damage-three-delivery-vans-39091536.html


  • #9651
    Mwengwe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 454 ✭✭Mwengwe


    growleaves wrote: »
    I haven't looked into it really but I'm surprised that its considered such a wild theory. Isn't it basically the idea that radiation-emitting masts are emitting harmful radiation? Perhaps untrue but not exactly lizard people from the Planet Zygon.

    The most rudimentary research about different kinds of radiation would quickly show how ignorant and stupid it is.


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  • #9652
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,437 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Fair point. I see we're now at 8% but that it's down on yesterday

    How does 8% compare to other major countries?

    Two similar countries to ourselves are Denmark and Norway.

    Denmark are on around 8% every day and Norway on approx 5%. So we're all in and around the same level, with Norway slightly more successful.


  • #9653
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 78,513 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    Just warming up

    No 13:eek: is round the corner


  • #9654
    Thestones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 257 ✭✭Thestones


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Which countries?

    Well for example Israel and Australia, both have more cases than us, higher populations but much lower amount of deaths. Just look at the numbers. It makes you wonder what are we doing wrong.


  • #9655
    marilynrr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 807 ✭✭✭marilynrr


    Bob24 wrote: »
    As he correctly says if you want the number of infected people to drop you need the R0 to drop below 1. According to one study the super draconian measures in Wuhan brought it down to 0.3. We don’t need to go that far but if it is correct that we are currently at 2.5 it actually is pretty bad news as it means with our current measures the virus is still progressing pretty quickly.

    I would imagine that for some people they've passed it on to members in their household, and haven't been spreading it to 2.5 people outside their homes.


  • #9656
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,444 ✭✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    fin12 wrote: »
    I’m guessing cause people didn’t travel as much and I think also SARS wasn’t as contagious.

    just came across this:
    Though the SARS death rate was higher than COVID-19, COVID-19 has already claimed more lives.

    According to Johnson, contact tracing was really effective with SARS, largely because symptoms were severe and therefore easier to identify and contain.

    In addition, Schleiss said the SARS virus didn’t have the “fitness to persist in the human population,” which eventually led to its demise.

    and this:
    For the SARS pandemic in 2003, scientists estimated the original R0 to be around 2.75. A month or two later, the effective R0 dropped below 1,


  • #9657
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 700 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    Thestones wrote: »
    Well for example Israel and Australia, both have more cases than us, higher populations but much lower amount of deaths. Just look at the numbers. It makes you wonder what are we doing wrong.


    We likely have much more cases than the official numbers. When looking at this I would always compare us to other countires in Western Europe with similar populations such as Norway, Denmark etc.


  • #9658
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,579 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    owlbethere wrote: »
    The PPE situation looks worrying.


    Other countries have experienced similar problems with PPE shortage and the only source for PPE is from china and that stuff is of poor quality.


    How are other countries dealing with the PPE situation now? Like the Dutch got bad stuff from china. What are they doing for PPE?


    Are there any plans in Ireland? Can factories help with cleanroom wear?

    Theres a post above from a doctor which was quite frankly refreshing to hear and mentioned ppe.

    The Dutch & spain it's been frequently said ordered from unapproved suppliers. We didn't we went with WHO approved


  • #9659
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,437 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Thestones wrote: »
    Well for example Israel and Australia, both have more cases than us, higher populations but much lower amount of deaths. Just look at the numbers. It makes you wonder what are we doing wrong.

    Two hot countries and Covid arrived in Australia later than in Europe


  • #9660
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Bob24 wrote: »
    As he correctly says if you want the number of infected people to drop you need the R0 to drop below 1. According to one study the super draconian measures in Wuhan brought it down to 0.3. We don’t need to go that far but if it is correct that we are currently at 2.5 it actually is pretty bad news as it means with our current measures the virus is still progressing pretty quickly.

    2.5 isn't really reflected in the figures, and is still exponential. Sounds too high to me.

    You'd think that a R0 at that level would see more than a doubling of new cases every N days where N is the time people are infectious. Assuming people full self isolate after they have symptoms, or are in bed, or in hospital or quarantine, then most of that would be in the 5 days or so people are asymptomatic. Do we see more than doubling every 5 days or so?


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  • #9661
    Thestones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 257 ✭✭Thestones


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    We likely have much more cases than the official numbers. When looking at this I would always compare us to other countires in Western Europe with similar populations such as Norway, Denmark etc.

    Norway has 5.5k cases and only 62 deaths versus us at 4.6k and 137 deaths. Denmark is doing slightly worse than us in terms of deaths at the moment.


This discussion has been closed.
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