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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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Comments

  • #8792
    Seamai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭Seamai


    owlbethere wrote: »
    Thanks for this. I think maybe you should have wrote march there in some parts instead of April.

    What you write does make sense.

    Just on the last bit

    "I would hope at this point after several weeks of stringent measures we would start seeing new infection rates being less than 2 weeks ago"


    We've been on some form of a lockdown for the past few weeks. Even before Leo made his speech around about the 16th/17th of March introducing more restrictions, many people were taking this very seriously and were slowing down and reducing public spaces and crowds before Leo called for them.

    We are now about 2-3 weeks with some form of a lockdown/restrictions and we are still seeing cases rising. This is something that worries me greatly.

    Yes you would think the new infection rate would be dropping a bit more at this point but I wonder when the test samples for yesterday's 420+ new cases were taken? Possibly a week or more ago? These people may have been waiting a few days for the test and even taking the average incubation time of 5 days you'd be back to mid March or far earlier if you went for the 14 day incubation period since they actually became infected.
    Let's just hope we start to see some more encouraging signs in the coming week but like I said in the first post, the results coming back from Germany may skew things.


  • #8793
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,621 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    You do realize that the idiots in London backed away from the 'Herd Immunity' tactic when they realized that it would cost approx 250,000 British lives.

    But I am sure you think that is a price worth paying ? :rolleyes:

    How that Brit chief scientist is still in his job defies belief.

    Agreed. A controlled herd immunity plan might work. But this would mean knowing who is infected and who could work, travel and work in nursing homes.


  • #8794
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    owlbethere wrote: »
    Thanks for this. I think maybe you should have wrote march there in some parts instead of April.

    What you write does make sense.

    Just on the last bit

    "I would hope at this point after several weeks of stringent measures we would start seeing new infection rates being less than 2 weeks ago"


    We've been on some form of a lockdown for the past few weeks. Even before Leo made his speech around about the 16th/17th of March introducing more restrictions, many people were taking this very seriously and were slowing down and reducing public spaces and crowds before Leo called for them.

    We are now about 2-3 weeks with some form of a lockdown/restrictions and we are still seeing cases rising. This is something that worries me greatly.

    The test results coming out now are from weeks ago. By the time someone gets infected, takes a few days or a week to shows symptoms, rings their gp, has to wait a few days to get tested, takes a few more days to get the results, and they delay reporting the figures by a day or more etc. The numbers will come down but it’s going to take another week or two.


  • #8795
    WhiteMemento9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,575 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    mikeoc85 wrote: »
    Bars and restaurants will be open in September

    What does that have to do with you claiming we will have normaility within a few weeks? It is currently April the 4th! There is a maths fail here.


  • #8796
    Wombatman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,349 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    Boggles wrote: »
    Masks? 1918?

    Hmmmmmmmmm.


    Why not?

    200402160305-02-influenza-1918-masks-restricted-exlarge-169.jpg

    Red Cross volunteers wore face masks during the flu pandemic of 1918.


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  • #8797
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    mikeoc85 wrote: »
    Country will go that route. These measures are only to get over the initial spike, to try and build up some form of immunity in healthcare workers without crippling it all at once. You will slowly see things go back to reasonable normality in a few of weeks.

    We can’t stay in this lock down forever, both from a human perspective and from an economic one.

    Anyone believing these measures will be in place until September, need their heads checked

    People who make them statements are doing it for their own interests. They don't give a fup about the damage that will be done by lifting restrictions.

    Reasonable normailty in a few weeks is a pipe dream. We are all taking a hit but you have to be realistic. There will be disruption until early next year at the minimum when a vaccine hopefully goes to market.


  • #8798
    Discodog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,117 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    Meanwhile in Finland.

    A friend of mine is going to a family gathering - their mother has motor neuron disease. They seem totally unaware of the real risks & yet Sweden is just next door.


  • #8799
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,634 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    MadYaker wrote: »
    The test results coming out now are from weeks ago. By the time someone gets infected, takes a few days or a week to shows symptoms, rings their gp, has to wait a few days to get tested, takes a few more days to get the results, and they delay reporting the figures by a day or more etc. The numbers will come down but it’s going to take another week or two.

    Exactly! I think the key number to watch is the numbers in ICU. This is the most up to date view of how many people are getting sick. It it starts to stabilise then we are doing ok.


  • #8800
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,621 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Nobody outside Asia has any experience dealing with this sort of crisis, so I don’t consider “making it up as they go along” a meaningful criticism. Everybody is “making it up” according to the resources and political leanings.

    Jesus Christ. We had 24/7 news coverage of this for 2 months before our first case including how to prepare for it, the need for travel restrictions, the need for proper PPE, the danger of asymptomatic spreaders, and so on.

    How on earth can anyone say they didn't know what to expect? Unless they were living in a cave or had their head in the sand?


  • #8801
    Just Saying
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 306 ✭✭Just Saying


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    They've been pretty clear, they were asked to clarify during the week and they did. The CMO even had the released figures from ICU to hand. This was as of midnight Wednesday which is the latest figures they release.
    https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/2f9240-an-analysis-of-the-3655-cases-of-covid-19-in-ireland-as-of-wednesday/#hospital-statistics

    In fairness to George Lee he did ask the important questions to Tony regarding the ICU numbers.148 was the number admitted to ICU since the start.He also gave the current numbers in ICU which from memory was 110.

    The striking feature of the extra information on the ICU figures was the low average age of those currently in ICU and also only 15 of the total number of deaths occurred in ICU.This is obviously because a large number of the people with underlying conditions were too ill for transfer to ICU as it would not have saved them.


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  • #8802
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    People who make them statements are doing it for their own interests. They don't give a fup about the damage that will be done by lifting restrictions.

    Reasonable normailty in a few weeks is a pipe dream.

    You think the government are lying so?


  • #8803
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    People who make them statements are doing it for their own interests. They don't give a fup about the damage that will be done by lifting restrictions.

    Reasonable normailty in a few weeks is a pipe dream.
    The gradual easing of restrictions the most likely. Maybe some minor ones this month, more in May and then a level of normalcy through June and into July.


  • #8804
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    mikeoc85 wrote: »
    Bars and restaurants will be open in September

    And if and when the second wave comes in the autumn they will be closed again soon afterwards.


  • #8805
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Jesus Christ. We had 24/7 news coverage of this for 2 months before our first case including how to prepare for it, the need for travel restrictions, the need for proper PPE, the danger of asymptomatic spreaders, and so on.

    How on earth can anyone say they didn't know what to expect? Unless they were living in a cave or had their head in the sand?

    I didn’t say they shouldn’t of been more prepared, I said nobody took it seriously. How many countries in western democracies are handling this well?

    Singling our the Irish government as “‘Making it up” is ignoring the fact that every other country is doing the same. As “making it up” goes, I think our government has done a better job then a lot of other countries have done.


  • #8806
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    And if and when the second wave comes in the autumn they will be closed again soon afterwards.
    We'll be a whole lot better placed to address that if it happens.


  • #8807
    Maestro85
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 199 ✭✭Maestro85


    I hope I am not pulling the pin on the grenade by asking this question but what are peoples thoughts on the chloroquine treatment the FDA approved but the EU didn't.


  • #8808
    Just Saying
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 306 ✭✭Just Saying


    Seamai wrote: »
    Yes you would think the new infection rate would be dropping a bit more at this point but I wonder when the test samples for yesterday's 420+ new cases were taken? Possibly a week or more ago? These people may have been waiting a few days for the test and even taking the average incubation time of 5 days you'd be back to mid March or far earlier if you went for the 14 day incubation period since they actually became infected.
    Let's just hope we start to see some more encouraging signs in the coming week but like I said in the first post, the results coming back from Germany may skew things.


    If they gave the numbers of test results that comprised each days new cases figure it would clarify the trends greatly.


  • #8809
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Just Saying wrote: »
    In fairness to George Lee he did ask the important questions to Tony regarding the ICU numbers.148 was the number admitted to ICU since the start.He also gave the current numbers in ICU which from memory was 110.

    The striking feature of the extra information on the ICU figures was the low average age of those currently in ICU and also only 15 of the total number of deaths occurred in ICU.This is obviously because a large number of the people with underlying conditions were too ill for transfer to ICU as it would not have saved them.

    Part of the problem is that it seems when you are admitted to ICU you could be there for weeks. I know somebody who has only just got out after battling for their lives with Covid. They needed 2 weeks in there.


  • #8810
    Sean 18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 204 ✭✭Sean 18


    Yes it was going mental in China in January some people thought it wouldn't come here at all I knew even then it would land here it used be mentioned in the news for 20 seconds the government should have done away more then did they think it was some movie on China or something the way they ignored it at the start of the year they were letting kids go skiing to Italy when it was already causing mayhem there


  • #8811
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Maestro85 wrote: »
    I hope I am not pulling the pin on the grenade by asking this question but what are peoples thoughts on the chloroquine treatment the FDA approved but the EU didn't.
    It is being tested in a big clinical trial.


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  • #8812
    WhiteMemento9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,575 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    MadYaker wrote: »
    You think the government are lying so?

    What have the Government said that makes you think we will have normaility returned wtihin a few weeks? I am very confused by the thread ATM.


  • #8813
    Wombatman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,349 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    Separate data from national statistics office ISTAT showed deaths in the north of Italy doubled in the first three weeks of March compared with the average during the same period between 2015 and 2019, reflecting the onset of coronavirus.

    In Bergamo, fatalities more than quadrupled, while they increased between two- and three-fold in several other Lombardy cities. In some small towns at the heart of the outbreak they were up 10-fold this year compared with 2019.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-tally/italy-coronavirus-death-rate-slows-but-studies-suggest-true-tally-higher-idUSKBN21J677

    I don't for a second believe that the number of deaths in Northern Italy, was higher in 2019 for the same period, Q1.

    Stats and sources please.


  • #8814
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    MadYaker wrote: »
    You think the government are lying so?

    I think the Government are doing a fantastic job at crisis management. Keeping people as calm as possible.

    As long as there is even one case of Covid 19 out there, disruption will be a part of our daily lives. The vaccine has to be in place for a state of reasonable normality to resume. That will not happen until 2021 Q1/Q2 at the earliest.

    Unfortunately it is a horrible catastrophe for us, very difficult to accept, but I am taking a realistic approach. We will get through it.

    This is my opinion.


  • #8815
    plodder
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 8,756 ✭✭✭plodder


    Maestro85 wrote: »
    I hope I am not pulling the pin on the grenade by asking this question but what are peoples thoughts on the chloroquine treatment the FDA approved but the EU didn't.
    There's a thread on it.

    https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058063232/1

    “The opposite of 'good' is 'good intentions'”



  • #8816
    ArchXStanton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭ArchXStanton


    Sean 18 wrote: »
    Yes it was going mental in China in January some people thought it wouldn't come here at all I knew even then it would land here it used be mentioned in the news for 20 seconds the government should have done away more then did they think it was some movie on China or something the way they ignored it at the start of the year they were letting kids go skiing to Italy when it was already causing mayhem there

    I remember seeing it when it broke out first in China and saying to myself that we'd be screwed if it spreads out of there, and I ain't on no politicians wage...


  • #8817
    NIMAN
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,955 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    So the majority of people being admitted to ICU are under 65

    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0404/1128465-covid19-coronavirus-tracker/

    Yet we are told the average age of those dying is 82.

    So are old people not even getting to ICU?

    Edit: the post below kinda asks the same question.


  • #8818
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,579 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Just Saying wrote: »
    In fairness to George Lee he did ask the important questions to Tony regarding the ICU numbers.148 was the number admitted to ICU since the start.He also gave the current numbers in ICU which from memory was 110.

    The striking feature of the extra information on the ICU figures was the low average age of those currently in ICU and also only 15 of the total number of deaths occurred in ICU.This is obviously because a large number of the people with underlying conditions were too ill for transfer to ICU as it would not have saved them.

    Well there is that, I think given the clusters in nursing homes we can assume somewhere along the line a decision was made as to what the best option would be for someone in a nursing home, they all quite clearly aren't being transferred to ICU given the deaths we've seen. Which as you said could have meant people already with undying health conditions who were just too ill for ICU


  • #8819
    Lollipop95
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,295 ✭✭✭Lollipop95


    Realistically, when might the restrictions be lifted and people are allowed to go back to work, etc? Assuming the ones already in place start to work and the number of cases and death drop?


  • #8820
    Sean 18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 204 ✭✭Sean 18


    Yes exactly and what was our good governments response at that time calling a general election


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  • #8821
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Jesus Christ. We had 24/7 news coverage of this for 2 months before our first case including how to prepare for it, the need for travel restrictions, the need for proper PPE, the danger of asymptomatic spreaders, and so on.

    How on earth can anyone say they didn't know what to expect? Unless they were living in a cave or had their head in the sand?

    A large amount of people thought this was all overhyped, scaremongering etc. even when the government started shutting things down 3 weeks ago. A significant minority still do think that way even now.


This discussion has been closed.
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