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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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Comments

  • #7982
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    Stheno wrote: »
    They need to sort out the nursing homes

    It's probably very difficult to "sort out" nursing homes. You have so many carers looking after the patients. One carer gets infected and infects one or two other carers which go on to infect the hospital. Very difficult to control this.


  • #7983
    DevilsHaircut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭DevilsHaircut


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    It's not a pleasant way to die. Would much rather have heart failure.

    They'd be given palliative care.


  • #7984
    Sono Topolino
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 508 ✭✭✭Sono Topolino


    I wish those assholes who went to Cheltenham and got infected despite our collective pleading with them to cop the feck on could be denied healthcare and quarantined in a prison cell. How utterly irresponsible can you be?


  • #7985
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,147 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    shesty wrote: »
    Point to note.424 new cases is an 11% increase in cases.
    Yesterday's figure of 404 was in fact a 12% increase.
    I believe Leo Varadkar mentioned earlier in the week their aim is to keep that % figure as low as possible, they want it down near 5%.
    Be wary of how you read numbers.
    There is a sticky at the top of the forum.page showing the reported numbers each days, the numbers as a percentage increase and numbers of deaths among other things.Useful information.

    Even at a generous 5% daily increase that is still 8000+ in the space of 2 weeks from now. You can guesstimate the deaths and ICU from that...not good


  • #7986
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,396 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Naggdefy wrote: »
    2 days ago when we had 212 new cases you said new cases was the key figure. You're absolutely all over the place. At least posters like ITman1988 are consistent in their views and opinions.

    Yes, and that is still the case. New cases are still the one to watch in terms of where the pandemic is going : people passing away this week would have been infected with Covid perhaps three or four weeks ago.

    But the 'surge' and 'peak' which is being discussed are the death totals. That is why Dr Holohan was asked when he thought the surge would happen.


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  • #7987
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,194 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    What happened to the talk of the app and 15,000 tests per day, is that just all talk never happening
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #7988
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,147 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Rvsmmnps wrote: »
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvLx17NNlu0&fbclid=IwAR1mBU86KNVQEIHLseid9C4ZMNhkjTjE8b7sesn8AclrSWezGGIj8sqhVM4

    Stop link dumping conspiracy videos


  • #7989
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    It's probably very difficult to "sort out" nursing homes. You have so many carers looking after the patients. One carer gets infected and infects one or two other carers which go on to infect the hospital. Very difficult to control this.

    Yes I worded that wrongly. Meant to say they need to sort them out with full PPE at least and training


  • #7990
    weldoninhio
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,311 ✭✭✭✭weldoninhio


    hmmm wrote: »
    It's not a "complete and utter disaster", the testing program is very well conceived and quickly scaled up. We have limited supplies of critical equipment, the same as the rest of the world, but your negativity is bull****.

    It’s an absolute mess. Stevie wonder could see that.


  • #7991
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    What happened to the talk of the app and 15,000 tests per day, is that just all talk never happening
    Ongoing on the app and still the plan on the testing.


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  • #7992
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Even at a generous 5% daily increase that is still 8000+ in the space of 2 weeks from now. You can guesstimate the deaths and ICU from that...not good

    5% should become 4% after a few days, then 3%, 2%, 1%


  • #7993
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    weldoninhio wrote: »
    It’s an absolute mess. Stevie wonder could see that.

    Let's see the stats Tuesday and what they say


  • #7994
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Even at a generous 5% daily increase that is still 8000+ in the space of 2 weeks from now. You can guesstimate the deaths and ICU from that...not good

    The best case scenario when this went global in early March was we would end up with deaths in the low thousands. People need to prepare themselves for this. When all is said and done and the final reckoning is done if we end up with less than 5,000 deaths the country has done very well


  • #7995
    otnomart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭otnomart


    ShayNanigan wrote: »
    It's not a conspiracy theory. It was actually reported in the news in Italy that researchers determined from the mutations that the virus had been around since November. Deaths were not obviously listed as being caused by Covid-19 at the time but pneumonia.

    Also there is public data from China stating the new unknown coronavirus was causing smaller outbreaks in November.

    Here's one paper mentioning November:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

    That's only one source. There are several research papers discussing this and how the virus has been around probably in October/November 2019.

    And where's the conspiracy? It seems to have been a lab accident. Not a planned thing to kill all the people on the planet but an unfortunate accident involving laboratory staff.


    "This phylogeny shows an initial emergence in Wuhan, China, in Nov-Dec 2019". Source: Nextstrain https://nextstrain.org/ - visualising data from the GISAID Initiative - the international sharing of virus sequences https://www.gisaid.org/
    See also this post which clarifies that: "The earliest genome sequences appear in Wuhan, and all the sequences from around the world radiate out from that origin in all directions."

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113005144&postcount=1706


  • #7996
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    We'll have lower cases over the weekend due to testing rate I'd imagine. When we record 200 cases tomorrow and Sunday we don't want to be pulled into a false sense of security.

    Everyone is doing their best. The nursing homes being a problem of course.


  • #7997
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,194 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    Sono Topolino wrote: »
    I wish those assholes who went to Cheltenham and got infected despite our collective pleading with them to cop the feck on could be denied healthcare and quarantined in a prison cell. How utterly irresponsible can you be?

    I think no matter what we say about anyone who went there or to China or Italy during this won't stop the spread now, of course all those idiots were only caring about their trips not this virus that was spreading worldwide killing people

    I still can't understand why anyone would have wanted to travel anywhere outside Ireland from January February hearing the news about the covid pandemic
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #7998
    Rvsmmnps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 151 ✭✭Rvsmmnps


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Stop link dumping conspiracy videos

    When the world stops you gotta start asking some questions.


  • #7999
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,861 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    shesty wrote: »
    Point to note.424 new cases is an 11% increase in cases.
    Yesterday's figure of 404 was in fact a 12% increase.
    I believe Leo Varadkar mentioned earlier in the week their aim is to keep that % figure as low as possible, they want it down near 5%.
    Be wary of how you read numbers.
    There is a sticky at the top of the forum.page showing the reported numbers each days, the numbers as a percentage increase and numbers of deaths among other things.Useful information.

    I don’t see it that way.

    I think those numbers are utterly pointless and you can’t read a thing into them. Calculating the increase on a daily percentage on the previous days numbers is an irrelevant statistic.

    Why you might ask?

    Because people who have been tested up to 2 weeks ago and haven’t got their results back. So the number of new cases today is not the number of newly infected people today.its actually the number of positive Results from the limited amount of tests that were processed today.

    You could easily have a days results today that relates to a batch of people from a cluster of infections that was tested over a week ago, or a huge number of negative tests completed. Etc etc.

    Considering we don’t have information being given out publicly as to the amount of people seeking tests on a daily basis, or the positives/negative for each of the last 2 weeks we can’t say if anything is improving or worsening for sure. We do t know how many tests are being taken or how many tests are being processed on a daily basis.

    As long as the testing is limited in the ways that it is, and the bottlenecks that exists then we simply can’t have accurate numbers. The only thing we can go by is deaths (assuming they are being recorded accurately) and ICU admissions unfortunately.


  • #8000
    humberklog
    Moderators, Music Moderators Posts: 10,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭humberklog


    Disappointed to see us pulling away from Denmark numbers wise. Denmark started with higher numbers than us, especially fatalities (of which they took a big hit early on). Then for a while we were tracking along in cases much the same (also Malaysia too) but in the last few days our cases have constantly been higher. At the moment: Cases Irl- 4273 and Dk 3757 and Deaths at Irl. 120 and Dk 139.

    Denmark have a slightly higher population and higher population density.


  • #8001
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,617 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    shesty wrote: »
    Point to note.424 new cases is an 11% increase in cases.
    Yesterday's figure of 404 was in fact a 12% increase.
    I believe Leo Varadkar mentioned earlier in the week their aim is to keep that % figure as low as possible, they want it down near 5%.
    on.

    When do you think that 5 per cent figure might be attained? Would the government consider lifting the stay at home order at that stage?


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  • #8002
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Naggdefy wrote: »
    We'll have lower cases over the weekend due to testing rate I'd imagine. When we record 200 cases tomorrow and Sunday we don't want to be pulled into a false sense of security.

    Everyone is doing their best. The nursing homes being a problem of course.
    We may have more as Henry said the tests sent to Germany will be starting to come back from tomorrow(night?).


  • #8003
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Even at a generous 5% daily increase that is still 8000+ in the space of 2 weeks from now. You can guesstimate the deaths and ICU from that...not good

    I always get confused by this. Has the governements approached to this not always been to "flatten the curve", so reduce how quickly people become infected so the hospitals can cope. We are doing a very good job at that. A lot of people on here haven't excepted that this virus is here. We can't stop it only slow it.


  • #8004
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    easypazz wrote: »
    5% should become 4% after a few days, then 3%, 2%, 1%

    It isn't following that path in Italy. From a couple of days around 4,200 new cases we're back to 4,500/4,600. That's a bit of a worry for all countries.


  • #8005
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    Sono Topolino wrote: »
    I wish those assholes who went to Cheltenham and got infected despite our collective pleading with them to cop the feck on could be denied healthcare and quarantined in a prison cell. How utterly irresponsible can you be?

    I was told of an owner of a pub in another village, he went to Cheltenham. It was completely irresponsible. Surely he had some sort of duty of care towards his staff and his customers. Thankfully the government stepped up and implemented a closure of pubs but still, we were told at the time to stop gathering in crowds. Even if our government did not warn us about gathering in crowds, it's still common sense to try and reduce your risk of catching this illness.


    It was incredibly selfish behaviour to go off and have fun at the races with a new deadly, highly infectious disease doing the rounds.


  • #8006
    mcmoustache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,237 ✭✭✭mcmoustache


    Ray Donovan wrote: »
    According to worldometers of all countries with over 1,000 cases we are 12th in the WORLD for cases per million people at 865. Is that not a very frightening statistic or am I totally missing something?


    The number of cases isn't really a useful number unless you're testing a large and diverse enough sampling of the population. For example if you could only do 1000 tests on a given day, you would get different results if you tested the gang who went to Copper's on its last open night than had you tested a bunch of locked-in, solitary types.



    It's not a realistic example given that the tests are mainly being done on people showing symptoms but I just wanted to demonstrate sampling bias.


    The better figure is the number of deaths as long as how we record the deaths stays consistent - for example, recording pneumonia complications from covid-19 as pneumonia instead of covid-19 would show a flattening that isn't there.


  • #8007
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »

    I still can't understand why anyone would have wanted to travel anywhere outside Ireland from January February hearing the news about the covid pandemic

    I'd colleagues who went skiing more than once in late January and Feb

    They laughed at me when I asked were they not concerned


  • #8008
    weldoninhio
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,311 ✭✭✭✭weldoninhio


    Stheno wrote: »
    Let's see the stats Tuesday and what they say

    Tuesdays numbers will prob be from Paddys Day. They are so out of their depth it would be laughable if it wasn’t so serious. And yet you still have Varadker and Harris gurning like idiots at the opening of a step down centre like they’ve achieved something.


  • #8009
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,229 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    harr wrote: »
    So Monday or Tuesday we are looking at big numbers when the results return from Germany .. thousands maybe

    Yes but as long as they have been self isolating and social distancing it really doesn't matter. Most of those will have recovered by now and won't be spreading

    As has been said numerous time, Hospital/ICU number and Deaths are the only things that really matter.

    If we can keep ICU numbers down specifically we are doing OK.


  • #8010
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,998 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    niallo27 wrote: »
    What smartphone are you using from Korea if you mind me asking?

    Well Apple & Hauwai phones use Analog wafers which are produced in Limerick. Many elements of today's smartphones are produced in more expensive countries.


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  • #8011
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    humberklog wrote: »
    Disappointed to see us pulling away from Denmark numbers wise. Denmark started with higher numbers than us, especially fatalities (of which they took a big hit early on). Then for a while we were tracking along in cases much the same (also Malaysia too) but in the last few days our cases have constantly been higher. At the moment: Cases Irl- 4273 and Dk 3757 and Deaths at Irl. 120 and Dk 139.

    Denmark have a slightly higher population and higher population density.

    Their deaths per million is still higher. 26 versus 24.


This discussion has been closed.
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