CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

FVP3 · 03-04-2020 03:53PM

The One Doctor wrote: »

Median is usually higher than mean, making the age at death seem higher.

Do you mean in this case?

In most cases, like wealth and income and so on, the mean is way higher than the median, which is more useful.

cloudatlas · 03-04-2020 03:54PM

political analyst wrote: »

Considering events in England this week, the lockdown might be causing more deaths than Covid-19 itself!

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/murder-probe-hemel-hempstead-coronavirus-lockdown-a4402141.html

I think there have probably been an increase of suicides and domestic violence across many countries.

shocksy · 03-04-2020 03:54PM

The briefing is at 5.30pm this evening.

ITman88 · 03-04-2020 03:54PM

Naggdefy wrote: »

You never shut up about the economy and suicides. You're in a little young man, office, economy bubble. A kind of Tory extreme. Elements of Thatcherism.

Economy yes, suicides not????

CIARAN_BOYLE · 03-04-2020 03:55PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Italy today
4,585 new cases and 766 deaths in Italy.

Italian testing numbers are back high again.

They were very low for a few days.

Professor Moriarty · 03-04-2020 03:56PM

Achasanai wrote: »

I suppose it depends on which statistics you believe. Others have suggested that not only are deaths in Italy (and elsewhere) far in excess of comparable periods, this excess suggests that Covid19 deaths are being unreported:

https://twitter.com/J_CD_T/status/1245739661449977867

That's scary.

wakka12 · 03-04-2020 03:56PM

I cant believe how high the cases and deaths in Italy are remaining. Youd think thered be a significant drop at least by now, its been so long since the lockdown began

munsterlegend · 03-04-2020 03:56PM

the.red.baron wrote: »

you are smart enough for both of us

Better than being AVERAGE.

owlbethere · 03-04-2020 03:56PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Italy today
4,585 new cases and 766 deaths in Italy.

How are they having such high number of new cases?

Is their lockdown working at all?

How come china was able to lower their new cases within a matter of weeks and it keeps growing in Italy?

paleoperson · 03-04-2020 03:57PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Italian testing numbers are back high again.

They were very low for a few days.

They've been fractionally decreased because of the lockdown.

40-70% of people will likely end up getting it no matter what we do as Merkhel and many top scientists have said. Notice how they say flatten the curve, not reduce the amount under the curve.

The idea of two weeks or four weeks and we'll be back to normal is pure farce.

They will start attributing many of the deaths to other causes just like China and start up the economy again.

ITman88 · 03-04-2020 03:58PM

paleoperson wrote: »

There might be something to taking more care of the flu during winter season, but the flu can not and should not be compared to or even mentioned in the same sentence as this.

The flu is generally something only the elderly die of and even they have a pretty good chance of fighting it off. What's more the flu is rare in itself and is harder to catch, it's not as contagious. When some people do have the flu YES of course you must be very careful around them.

The flu takes people who are on death's door in general, people on beds waiting to die. This is routinely taking immunocompromised people or those in their 50s, 60s and 70s who may be in fine health and have decades of life expectancy left. Here's one example:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/areema-nasreen-death-coronavirus-healthy-nhs-nurse-a4405961.html

This isn't something you can pull out of the past few years like with the flu, this is happening to many people every day. Also the flu occurs over the whole year, there is no extraordinary spike, that's another element to it.

I have personally never heard or read of anyone dying with the flu, especially not a young person. You would now and again hear of celebrities or people well known dying of car crashes or rare cancers or something like that, I don't believe I have ever in my life heard of someone like that dying of the flu, not unless they were really elderly and frail then maybe it was the final thing.

The only correct part of your statement is that the flu is less contagious.

Everything else displays an ignorance to what being happening in Europe and the UK for a number of years.

Just because you didn’t hear of young flu deaths it didn’t happen. ðŸ˜¯

Naggdefy · 03-04-2020 03:58PM

owlbethere wrote: »

How are they having such high number of new cases?

Is their lockdown working at all?

How come china was able to lower their new cases within a matter of weeks and it keeps growing in Italy?

China may be economical with the truth. Also they welded peoples' doors to keep them in. Different definition of lockdown.

South Korea is more of a good example. Still about 90 new cases a day.

the.red.baron · 03-04-2020 03:59PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's scary.

if they haven't tested them they can't be sure what it was, perhaps that explains it

look the UK, nursing homes etc, that man who died in the nursing home here without a test, how was he recorded

Beasty · 03-04-2020 03:59PM

paleoperson wrote: »

First of all you are brain dead. You don't know anything, you don't understand anything. Don't for one second think I'm considering talking with you as some sort of argument or discussion, you're a joke.

My stats are the most objective ones available from WHO and worldometers.info

It is widely believed they are underestimates of those actually getting the virus and dying from it. Many more are dying from coronavirus without being tested for it, they are not included. The UK has estimated it could be actually 24% greater or more in their country.

There are also many who are currently in the process of dying and many are left with life altering complications that slash their future life expectancy.

A month ago I might have understood some of your horse****, now it's like you're insane.

You're a joke.

Threadbanned

bekker · 03-04-2020 04:00PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That's wrong. The median is the value that separates the high half of a data set from the lower half

Say a 1 year old an 84 year old and an 85 year old die from CV. The median age is not 43.

Median is used rather than average because an extreme value can heavily skew an average in a small dataset.

What's the median of 2,3,4,5,5,5,6,6,6,8,45,67,77,98 ? Hint it's not 50.

MD1990 · 03-04-2020 04:00PM

Id say Italy are noe doing more testing which is resulting in more cases still.

They'll & the rest of Europe may need to be in a lockdown until a vaccine comes out.

stephenjmcd · 03-04-2020 04:00PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Italian testing numbers are back high again.

They were very low for a few days.

It still looks like they're hopefully on the downwards curve now, if it can continue for the next week then it'll be good news. Looks like about 1400 recoveries today also.

the.red.baron · 03-04-2020 04:01PM

ITman88 wrote: »

The only correct part of your statement is that the flu is less contagious.

Everything else displays an ignorance to what being happening in Europe and the UK for a number of years.

Just because you didn’t hear of young flu deaths it didn’t happen. &#55357;&#56879;

is the flu less contagious though, or are you just not passing it on because of immunity

kilkenny31 · 03-04-2020 04:01PM

owlbethere wrote: »

How are they having such high number of new cases?

Is their lockdown working at all?

How come china was able to lower their new cases within a matter of weeks and it keeps growing in Italy?

Italy has a very old population so there's a good chance it has struck at a lot of nursing homes and hospitals resulting in a lot of deaths. Also people may be staying at home but Italians and Spanish live in apartment blocks and as was seen is SARS these virus's can rip through apartment blocks. As regard the Chinese numbers. They have told so many lives its hard to take what they say as fact. There is a lot of reports that suggest maybe close to 80000 people could have died.

the.red.baron · 03-04-2020 04:02PM

munsterlegend wrote: »

Better than being AVERAGE.

why do you have be so MEAN

stephenjmcd · 03-04-2020 04:02PM

owlbethere wrote: »

How are they having such high number of new cases?

Is their lockdown working at all?

How come china was able to lower their new cases within a matter of weeks and it keeps growing in Italy?

They're initial lockdown wasn't really a lockdown and alot in the north upped and went south which I'd say is accounting for a good lot of the cases. Plus the age of the population could be a factor.

The new cases are pretty steady though for the last few days so its working alright but only been a strict lockdown for what the last 2-3 weeks, so it'll definitely be extended out.

FishOnABike · 03-04-2020 04:03PM

Wombatman wrote: »

"spread for longer and at an ever increasing rate". What? It takes longer, faster?

Are your talking about population density or size?

You can only compare between countries in per capita terms.

Both longer and faster (at an ever increasing rate).

It takes more time for a virus to burn its way through a larger population of potential hosts so it will take longer to get through a population of 50 million than 5 million.

The longer a virus continues unhindered through a population not only does the number of people exposed / infected increase but because of the geometric or exponential nature of transmission / infection, the rate of transmission / infection also increases. Not only are there more new patients but the rate at which new patients are presenting is also increasing.

If it is not brought under effective control early geometric or exponential growth can very soon get to unmanageable numbers, even for a large country. A small delay in action can have a significant effect as can be seen in the UK figures and current projections of over 1000 deaths daily.

All other things being equal, at the same point in time a less populous area or country is further along its 'outbreak curve' than a more populous area or country. If a comparison is made on a per capita basis then it also needs to take into account where in their 'outbreak curve' each country is.

At the beginning of an outbreak, before exposure reaches 60% to 70% and herd immunity starts to have a significant effect, a simple unscaled numeric comparison is more representative of how effectively an outbreak or cluster has been contained.

A person won't infect sixty times the number of people in a week in the USA than they would in Ireland so simple per capita comparisons can't be made.

Unhindered, a source of infection should initially spread at the same absolute rate irrespective of the relative population sizes. If it spreads more slowly in one than another then it is because if natural and/or anthropogenic mitigation. e.g. population density, early introduction of socual distancing measures, progressive shutdowns, restriction of travel, contact tracing and isolation.

I think and hope Ireland has done just enough, just in time to keep the situation within our capacity to deal with. Countries that do to little or leave it too late will pay a disproportionate price.

is_that_so · 03-04-2020 04:03PM

wakka12 wrote: »

I cant believe how high the cases and deaths in Italy are remaining. Youd think thered be a significant drop at least by now, its been so long since the lockdown began

The rate of increase is down to about 4% so hopefully not far off peak. Regrettably, they will have a large death toll for a while but it should start to decline once the rate of increase gets close to zero.

storker · 03-04-2020 04:03PM

jackboy wrote: »

I’m thinking after this maybe there will be some extra actions taken every winter to reduce flu deaths.

Most people still going to work even though they are in a state with colds and flus may change
.

This occurred to me too. It would be great if this experience put an end to people displaying their heroic devotion to their employer by bringing their germs to work and inflicting their illnesses on their colleagues. The explosion in remote working will hopefully mean that there's at lot less of this nonsense...and less employers who expect it.

tobefrank321 · 03-04-2020 04:04PM

paleoperson wrote: »

They've been fractionally decreased because of the lockdown.

40-70% of people will likely end up getting it no matter what we do as Merkhel and many top scientists have said. Notice how they say flatten the curve, not reduce the amount under the curve.

The idea of two weeks or four weeks and we'll be back to normal is pure farce.

They will start attributing many of the deaths to other causes just like China and start up the economy again.

I think we can forget about normality.

In China they are getting back to normality but it still involves significant restrictions and continuing to wear gloves and masks when out. That will be the new normal. We will have to look at re-opening businesses and shops here but with Perspex glass to protect staff. That will be the new normal. Construction workers will be encouraged to keep some distance from others on site and might be encouraged to rotate days on site. Temperature checks would have to be common place to enter common areas. Without them, we'll never be able to reopen spaces like pubs, clubs or cinemas. Someone with a temperature of 38degrees shouldn't be allowed on a plane flying out or flying in here. And those coming from hotspots will have to isolate.

These are the kinds of things we'd have to do to get back to "normal".

Professor Moriarty · 03-04-2020 04:04PM

the.red.baron wrote: »

if they haven't tested them they can't be sure what it was, perhaps that explains it

look the UK, nursing homes etc, that man who died in the nursing home here without a test, how was he recorded

Yeah but the unexpected deaths is double those attributed to Covid-19. What else could explain such a spike other than, primarily, unreported/untested Covid-19 deaths?

03-04-2020 04:04PM

owlbethere wrote: »

How come china was able to lower their new cases within a matter of weeks and it keeps growing in Italy?

China are lying through their teeth.

ITman88 · 03-04-2020 04:04PM

the.red.baron wrote: »

is the flu less contagious though, or are you just not passing it on because of immunity

That is quiet possible.

Interestingly flu deaths aren’t always counted, ie If a person is diagnosed with influenza dies it’s not noted as cause of death.

The opposite is true of covid, if one tests positive it’s recorded as a cause of death.

kilkenny31 · 03-04-2020 04:06PM

I see the press briefing is 5.30 today. I suspect we have reached out peak of new cases so I doubt we will see a significant rise today. I'd imagine we will see anywhere between 200-400 New cases for the next few weeks and probably 10-20 deaths daily. Maybe the deaths might peak at 30+ for a few days.

is_that_so · 03-04-2020 04:07PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah but the unexpected deaths is double those attributed to Covid-19. What else could explain such a spike other than, primarily, unreported/untested Covid-19 deaths?

I think that is something that may never be known, we may not even get a good approximation on the numbers actually infected but we will still have a lot of data and more importantly a much better understanding of this thing.

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP