CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

Curious_Case · 01-04-2020 06:50PM

Former Great wrote: »

Noticed a business earlier that really shouldnt be opened , dont like reporting people but who do i report to if i decide to do so

Unless there's a significant footfall I wouldn't bother.

Loafing Oaf · 01-04-2020 06:50PM

easypazz wrote: »

Tell them to stay indoors and put supports in place.

Then its their choice, so in 6 weeks time if they get infected and die then they have nobody to blame but themselves.

As things stand we are all effectively under house arrest.

Are you aware a large proportion of over 65s, even more so the most vulnerable ones, live with children and grandchildren?

crossman47 · 01-04-2020 06:50PM

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

As I’ve said over and over if you read the reported issues everyday after the briefing the dept of health have consistently and clearly (showing their calculations) reported cumulative numbers.

The media and people on Twitter are reporting incorrectly and confusing people who appear unable to do simple maths and read English.

As is George Lee. he reported 126 on the news s the current figure despite being told otherwise at the press briefing.

darjeeling · 01-04-2020 06:50PM

Looptheloop30 wrote: »

Relaxing any form of this lock down would be pissing into the wind and put us back to square one.

Strap yourself in for another few months

As was pointed out by Jeremy Hunt, former UK Health Secretary, lockdowns are a blunt instrument. We can do a lot better.

He proposed continuing to try to suppress the epidemic by using mass, fast testing and contact tracing, the idea being presumably to wait it out until a vaccine is available.

An alternative would be to tolerate it spreading in the low risk population while trying actually to do a proper job of putting a barrier round the vulnerable.
This is riskier and hasn't worked anywhere so far due to lack of PPE, insufficient training, mixing of infected and uninfected patients / home residents, and lack of testing.
Consequently there have been at least 21 hospital outbreaks and 24 nursing home outbreaks here, according to HSE stats.
For it to work would require fast turnaround testing of care staff and patients/home residents for current/past infection, and appropriate PPE and distancing in all care settings - home help, nursing homes, and hospitals.

Either way, we will also need to keep reconfiguring the health service to increase capacity for treating COVID-19 cases and to isolate them from the rest of patients.

Gynoid · 01-04-2020 06:50PM

Earlier I had a look at some media reports from March 4th when we were beginning to hear about issues in Ireland. This was a group of 4, a family back from Italy, all positive for coronavirus. It was in addition to one other case we had heard of, I think.
It was 4 weeks ago.
The local schools said they would close, but only until March 13th. Politicians and health officials said just restrict some classes for a few days.
The Deputy CMO said he saw no reason to advise against punters going to Cheltenham. Tony Holohan said he saw no reason to ban St Patricks day parades, and that schools and universities should remain open.
Italy had 3000 cases on record and 100 deaths.

4 weeks later Italy has 110,000 cases on record and more than 13,000 deaths.
We have had 85 deaths and unknown case numbers due mainly to testing issues.

It has been a very strange 4 weeks.

fritzelly · 01-04-2020 06:51PM

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

As I’ve said over and over if you read the reported issues everyday after the briefing the dept of health have consistently and clearly (showing their calculations) reported cumulative numbers.

The media and people on Twitter are reporting incorrectly and confusing people who appear unable to do simple maths and read English.

Not what the HSE said earlier in the day before changing it to cumulative

woohoo!!! · 01-04-2020 06:51PM

careless sherpa wrote: »

As well as large open plan offices.

I've always hated the large open place office which we've been in for about 10 years. I'll definitely be pushing to maximise working from home hours.

MarkY91 · 01-04-2020 06:52PM

Former Great wrote: »

Noticed a business earlier that really shouldnt be opened , dont like reporting people but who do i report to if i decide to do so

What type of business?

There's a local dog grooming shop still open near to me.... allowed to bring a dog for a haircut but not yourself..... bizarre.

Vivienne23 · 01-04-2020 06:52PM

4 weeks ??? Feels like 4 years !

Coyote · 01-04-2020 06:53PM

humberklog wrote: »

A few pages/threads back someone posted a link to a really natty site that allowed you to select the countries you wanted to see on a graph and compare contrast. The graph would move along from day zero with each country. Does anyone remember that site and have a look?

I'm interested in following Ireland and Denmark's increases and this was a useful tool.

Hi humberklog

the site i think you are talking about is
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Xertz · 01-04-2020 06:54PM

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

As I’ve said over and over if you read the reported issues everyday after the briefing the dept of health have consistently and clearly (showing their calculations) reported cumulative numbers.

The media and people on Twitter are reporting incorrectly and confusing people who appear unable to do simple maths and read English.

What I don't understand is why anyone would think the HSE or the DoH would have an agenda to engage in some kind of cover up of this. It quite literally makes absolutely no sense, whatsoever.

They are in 'all hands on deck' and 'pull out all the stops' mode and are genuinely working flat out across all sorts of areas.

You have to remember that other than Coronavirus, there are gargantuan efforts going on to keep all the other services running.

Just to give you an example, a relative of mine is having on-going cancer treatment and their team had to find new venues for infusions, which involved nurses / local management going in and working with contractors and getting a facilities up and running. They were getting equipment moved, installed, rooms cleaned, painted, getting electrical systems updated - you name it, they're doing it. There are nurses, managers, administrators, cleaners, everyone working flat out behind the scenes across the whole system in a way that is genuinely unprecedented.

The press conferences are trying to get out as much information as they can and it has largely been very accurate and they are being as open and forthcoming as they can. You have to realise they're not used to dealing with public presentation of medical stats. They're used to issuing stats to academics and medics and those are often technical, dense reports that would need to be read by someone who's familiar with reading them.

Perhaps they could get some staff in from say the CSO or academia to help out with publishing stats and info. It not something the HSE is actually used to doing and perhaps the presentation isn't quite media-friendly or is assuming a degree of expertise that doesn't exist, but I honestly think this constant accusation of some kind of coverup or agenda is beyond nonsense.

What I would suggest, if any of the HSE are reading this, is go out and find a science communicator. There are a few good ones I can think of off hand and Science Foundation Ireland might be able to help here, and give them the job of presenting data online and supporting the media.

blackcard · 01-04-2020 06:55PM

coastwatch wrote: »

Not sure why people are getting so worked up over current versus cumulative ICU numbers.
There may be very little difference at this stage in the oubreak, as patients can be in ICU for 3-4 weeks with this, and we are only 3-4 weeks into it.

In some countries, the number of people requiring ICU's exceeded the number of ICU's available. As they weren't getting the required treatment, this lead to dramatic increases in the death rate. It would be very informative to know the amount of ICU's available versus the amount that are currently in use. This would let us know the spare capacity, if any, and inform us regarding our ability to cope with this crisis going forward.
For total clarification, we should have 3 figures. The amount of ICU's in the country, the cumulative number of people who have been on ICU's and the current number of people on ICU's. If only some journalist could ask this question

Loafing Oaf · 01-04-2020 06:56PM

darjeeling wrote: »

As was pointed out by Jeremy Hunt, former UK Health Secretary, lockdowns are a blunt instrument. We can do a lot better.

He proposed continuing to try to suppress the epidemic by using mass, fast testing .

Come back to me when Ireland has the capacity to do that...

deisedevil · 01-04-2020 06:56PM

Curious_Case wrote: »

Unless there's a significant footfall I wouldn't bother.

Why not?

gmisk · 01-04-2020 06:57PM

darjeeling wrote: »

As was pointed out by Jeremy Hunt, former UK Health Secretary, lockdowns are a blunt instrument. We can do a lot better.

He proposed continuing to try to suppress the epidemic by using mass, fast testing and contact tracing, the idea being presumably to wait it out until a vaccine is available.

An alternative would be to tolerate it spreading in the low risk population while trying actually to do a proper job of putting a barrier round the vulnerable.
This is riskier and hasn't worked anywhere so far due to lack of PPE, insufficient training, mixing of infected and uninfected patients / home residents, and lack of testing.
Consequently there have been at least 21 hospital outbreaks and 24 nursing home outbreaks here, according to HSE stats.
For it to work would require fast turnaround testing of care staff and patients/home residents for current/past infection, and appropriate PPE and distancing in all care settings - home help, nursing homes, and hospitals.

Either way, we will also need to keep reconfiguring the health service to increase capacity for treating COVID-19 cases and to isolate them from the rest of patients.

Lockdowns are the only thing that seems to have worked in other countries.

I wouldn't be taking advice on things from Jeremy Hunt....the numbers in the UK are not looking good...despite them seemingly not counting deaths in nursing homes towards their figures and testing very few per head.

Lwaker. · 01-04-2020 06:57PM

deisedevil wrote: »

Why not?

ES have enough to be doing

Stheno · 01-04-2020 06:58PM

I dont get the negativity on here tbh

Yesterday we had tested over 30000 people in total to date

Today the UK had tested just over 150000

So if they had tested at the same rate as us, with a population 12 times our size the figure would be 360000

They've not even done half that.

Their death rate today of 563 would equate to approx 40 deaths here today, not the 14 reported

Our population are compliant for the most part with restrictions

The deputy CMO today said signs were positive

Wtf is up with all the bickering??

Fr Tod Umptious · 01-04-2020 06:58PM

deisedevil wrote: »

Why not?

Because maybe it's just a small business trying to stay in business.

What type of business are they ?

Are they employing anyone ?

Are they doing much business ?

Curious_Case · 01-04-2020 06:58PM

blackcard wrote: »

In some countries, the number of people requiring ICU's exceeded the number of ICU's available. As they weren't getting the required treatment, this lead to dramatic increases in the death rate. It would be very informative to know the amount of ICU's available versus the amount that are currently in use. This would let us know the spare capacity, if any, and inform us regarding our ability to cope with this crisis going forward.
So the current amount of people with ICU's is something that we need to know

I think they should report a figure that isn't ambiguous in any way

I want to know what the most recent number of available (unoccupied) ICU's is ?

And also, how many (if any) non Covid-19 patients are being denied an ICU

gmisk · 01-04-2020 06:59PM

MarkY91 wrote: »

What type of business?

There's a local dog grooming shop still open near to me.... allowed to bring a dog for a haircut but not yourself..... bizarre.

They might be getting around it by selling dog food?

RugbyLad11 · 01-04-2020 06:59PM

rusty the athlete wrote: »

And anyone like you with such ridiculous ideas in a lunatic asylum.

You're the lunatic if you think the lockdown will last for 18 months, because is probably how long it will take for a vaccine.

Placing people over 66 and people with underlying medical conditions while everyone goes back to work is the most logical solution.

BrianD3 · 01-04-2020 06:59PM

Just Saying wrote: »

With all the uncertainty about numbers of tests and the delays in getting test results I think the daily death totals and the rate of upward trend in same assume greater importance.

The daily death rate and the 3 and 5 day moving averages of same are not showing the rapid increases at this point in the graph as .might have been expected.

This gives me a lot of hope that we are on the right track.While we have testing issues we are still per head of population a lot better than our larger European neighbours.

The daily death rate here is trending towards a substantial flattening of the curve.While there is normally a time lag between new cases and deaths it would indicate that closing of pubs etc ,large scale and earlier adherence to social distancing compared to other countries and also the use of contact tracing have combined to prevent the rapid increase in deaths witnessed in other countries.

I'm hopeful too however I think that factors that have little or nothing to do with deliberate action by authorities will help us a lot in this country. The related issues of sparse population density, one off housing, car dependency, poor public transport - generally regarded as bad things but major pluses in a pandemic. I wonder will anyone try to claim credit for these. The likes of An Taisce may be keeping quiet for a while :P

Even taking account of my hope for a reasonably good outcome, I am more concerned by the day about how Covid-19 will affect nursing homes and that this could be yet another healthcare scandal in the making.

Public nursing homes charge about 1800-2200 per week, in most cases residents don't pay anything near that as the taxpayer subsidises the cost under the Fair Deal scheme. But that 1800-2200 is deemed to be the cost of care. Private nursing homes which are profit driven generally cost much less. I know from experience that the care provided in both public and private can leave a lot to be desired. Also, thanks to the shambles that is home care in this country, there are people in nursing homes who would have been able to manage at home had they received some help from the state. This will likely result in the deaths of some people who will be sitting ducks for Covid-19 in a nursing home when they could have avoided it at home.

munsterlegend · 01-04-2020 07:00PM

Gynoid wrote: »

Earlier I had a look at some media reports from March 4th when we were beginning to hear about issues in Ireland. This was a group of 4, a family back from Italy, all positive for coronavirus. It was in addition to one other case we had heard of, I think.
It was 4 weeks ago.
The local schools said they would close, but only until March 13th. Politicians and health officials said just restrict some classes for a few days.
The Deputy CMO said he saw no reason to advise against punters going to Cheltenham. Tony Holohan said he saw no reason to ban St Patricks day parades, and that schools and universities should remain open.
Italy had 3000 cases on record and 100 deaths.

4 weeks later Italy has 110,000 cases on record and more than 13,000 deaths.
We have had 85 deaths and unknown case numbers due mainly to testing issues.

It has been a very strange 4 weeks.

The lesson is prevention is better than cure.

Oh and don’t believe a word from the Chinese.

babybuilder · 01-04-2020 07:01PM

fullstop wrote: »

So you don’t think any other government in the word would or should have wanted test kits 5 weeks ago...just little old ireland ploughing a lone furrow? **** me the drivel spouted in here :rolleyes:

I'm not making it up. Check back. As far as the virologist who said one or two cases.

Reckless Abandonment · 01-04-2020 07:01PM

If the numbers do start to drop in the next 2 weeks they will have to start letting things open up again in a controlled manner. Then if the numbers look to be going bad, another lockdown. Can't see any other way around this.

blackcard · 01-04-2020 07:01PM

Can anyone imagine the cost of health insurance next year?

RugbyLad11 · 01-04-2020 07:01PM

wakka12 wrote: »

People over 65 and with health conditions is about 1/5 - 1/4 of the entire population

Yeah but not many people over 65 are working now are they? Besides 1/4 of the entire population in isolation is better than 3/4 of the entire population in isolation as it is now

Reckless Abandonment · 01-04-2020 07:02PM

blackcard wrote: »

Can anyone imagine the cost of health insurance next year?

Cost of food could be a bigger issue.

niallo27 · 01-04-2020 07:03PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Are you aware a large proportion of over 65s, even more so the most vulnerable ones, live with children and grandchildren?

A large proportion, are you sure. I would presume the majority leave on their own. My own parents are over 65 and live on their own. Most of my mates are the same.

Xertz · 01-04-2020 07:03PM

blackcard wrote: »

Can anyone imagine the cost of health insurance next year?

It potentially won't have much impact on insurers as the majority of the costs are being borne by the public systems and many insurable procedures are just on hold.

I would suspect the bigger issue when this is over will be dealing with massive waiting lists as they've paused what were already extremely long lists and capacity for elective treatments has disappeared entirely.

I would suspect that's where the pressure will be, not on insurers. Also, fall off in employment tends to result in less people buying plans, which may have some impact. In an insurance fund if the younger, healthier cohort all drop out (which happens in an economic slump) then the overall burden rises.

That's one of the main reasons I think, if we're not going to go down the Beveridge NHS type model, we should probably be looking at a universal public insurance model as is common in continental Europe. It really makes no sense to have cherry picking private insurers or instability in a system that will end up losing subscribers every time there's an economic glitch.

What we have at the moment makes little sense - if the economy tightens, people will rely on a tight public system anyway. It would make more sense to just have a single tier public system which would have way more resources and leave fully private insurance as a niche product at the fringes like in the UK and elsewhere.

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP