CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

BanditLuke · 01-04-2020 05:39PM

Rows Grower wrote: »

Professor Luke O Neil just gave a fantastically upbeat interview there on RTE News, what a pleasure to listen to such a positive educated person.

The same Luke O'Neill who was laughing and joking a few weeks back on the late late telling us it was nothing to worry about?

Doyler99 · 01-04-2020 05:39PM

kwestfan08 wrote: »

But isnt that the course we are on for the next 2 years or so? This is lockdown 1.0, once we get cases under control restrictions are relaxed. When cases inevitably rise again it will be lockdown 2.0 until such time as cases are back under a certain level. Rinse and repeat until the vaccine.

If it's going to be like this for the next few months, I can see civil unrest exploding. I feel like the Govt. will just keep renewing this lockdown every two weeks?

Coyote · 01-04-2020 05:39PM

Number updated to match today's report

I have updated the % needing ICU to 6%, I also left the number of new cases going forward as the testing numbers are unsure

No Change in number

Slow Change

Big Drop in numbers

again with all of this I'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths
if anyone has questions or thinks it could be changed with better data let me know

interesting visualization of covid19
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

ninebeanrows · 01-04-2020 05:40PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They simply refuse (as per press conference) to give current ICU numbers. Astonishing really. Every other country in Europe I have followed does this.

I think they literally don't have it, unlikely a cover-up.

He did say that most of the cumulative number are likely to be still in the ICU, so I reckon we take that as our number to monitor

Xertz · 01-04-2020 05:40PM

Some people seem to be getting a little overly concerned about the raw number live data. It's actually not that relevant as what matters in a situation like this is trends as there are time delays and all sorts of complications in statistical analysis of what are quite small numbers.

The data is also generally quite ropy and inconsistent on internet sites as different reporting systems are not producing the same types of figures. I would wait for international bodies in the EU, OECD and WHO to really start number crunching before you can get any kind of like-for-like comparison.

Thankfully, the death toll in Ireland and quite a few of the Northern European countries so far is still relatively small. You can't really extrapolate much from it at this stage other than it's significantly below where the original models were predicting which would tend to indicate that we have done something right and it hasn't 'exploded'.

My sense is that we've a few significant natural advantages, mostly that we've a relatively low density population, even in urban areas and a fairly young demographic spread, but also that we have moved to make very significant changes to cause spread to drop off rapidly before it really took hold.

Lwaker. · 01-04-2020 05:41PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Won't happen. Once the decline is clear, the government will start thinking about the economy. This will be a balancing act between public health and the economy, and in a couple of weeks they will look to revisit that balance

No they'll focus on health

Smart thing for politicians to do

gmisk · 01-04-2020 05:41PM

smelly sock wrote: »

Relax the lockdown. Not the social distancing measures. Leave pubs and schools closed but let people back to work.

Social distancing on public transport in Dublin specifically when everyone is back to work...good luck with that

BanditLuke · 01-04-2020 05:41PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They simply refuse (as per press conference) to give current ICU numbers. Astonishing really. Every other country in Europe I have followed does this.

Controlling the narrative has been their goal from day one.

marilynrr · 01-04-2020 05:41PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

My sister in law is a senior nurse in ICU in Dublin and says the figure is the number now in ICUs. So I'm totally confused.

Yep everyone keeps saying that it's a cumulative figure but I definitely remember one day where the ICU numbers dropped from the previous day...and it dropped more than the amount of deaths for the previous day.

coastwatch · 01-04-2020 05:42PM

Not sure why people are getting so worked up over current versus cumulative ICU numbers.
There may be very little difference at this stage in the oubreak, as patients can be in ICU for 3-4 weeks with this, and we are only 3-4 weeks into it.

otnomart · 01-04-2020 05:42PM

DubInMeath wrote: »

They estimate that they are capable of doing this number

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/wireStory/mass-testing-empty-icus-germany-scores-early-virus-69911783
virologist Dr. Christian Drosten, whose team developed the first test for the new virus at Berlin's Charité hospital — established over 300 years ago to treat plague victims.

He estimated that Germany is now capable of conducting up to 500,000 tests a week

The number of tests in Germany had been a mistery for a long while,
I finally found it buried in the German report from Robert Koch - page 6, section titled Labortestungen.
Google Translate: "The feedback from the laboratories showed that 918,460 samples have been tested so far from the beginning of the collection up to and including calendar week 13/2020, of which 64,906 were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2."
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html

Sober Crappy Chemis · 01-04-2020 05:43PM

Doyler99 wrote: »

I can see civil unrest exploding

Absolute needless, baseless, voyeuristic and fearmongering bullcraap.

Cork Boy 53 · 01-04-2020 05:43PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is 126 total for ROI or all Island of Ireland including NI?

ROI only. The HSE have no jurisdiction over the NI health service.

Westernyelp · 01-04-2020 05:44PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

The same Luke O'Neill who was laughing and joking a few weeks back on the late late telling us it was nothing to worry about?

I don't think he ever did that in fairness,

crossman47 · 01-04-2020 05:44PM

tom1ie wrote: »

I may have missed this but why do we get the cumulative icu bed figures and not the real time figures?

So we can relate ICU to total cases and total hospitalisations

easypazz · 01-04-2020 05:45PM

gmisk wrote: »

Social distancing on public transport in Dublin specifically when everyone is back to work...good luck with that

Once the vulnerable stay away it won't be as big an issue.

Working from home, schools close, libraries closed etc. will keep the numbers on public transport down.

fritzelly · 01-04-2020 05:45PM

pjohnson wrote: »

I do but you yourself dont seem to understand what people are saying. But its your first day so I'll be kind.

Made me laugh

Former Great · 01-04-2020 05:46PM

Noticed a business earlier that really shouldnt be opened , dont like reporting people but who do i report to if i decide to do so

gmisk · 01-04-2020 05:47PM

easypazz wrote: »

Once the vulnerable stay away it won't be as big an issue.

Working from home, schools close, libraries closed etc. will keep the numbers on public transport down.

So what are the big differences in what is actually happening now in Ireland in that case?...

01-04-2020 05:47PM

fritzelly wrote: »

No it hasn't, HSE and HSPC were saying originally it was the total for the day - so they have been changing the definition and one saying one thing, the other saying another

As I’ve said over and over if you read the reported issues everyday after the briefing the dept of health have consistently and clearly (showing their calculations) reported cumulative numbers.

The media and people on Twitter are reporting incorrectly and confusing people who appear unable to do simple maths and read English.

deisedevil · 01-04-2020 05:48PM

Former Great wrote: »

Noticed a business earlier that really shouldnt be opened , dont like reporting people but who do i report to if i decide to do so

The Gardai. And your you shouldn't feel guilty about doing it either.

careless sherpa · 01-04-2020 05:48PM

gmisk wrote: »

Social distancing on public transport in Dublin specifically when everyone is back to work...good luck with that

As well as large open plan offices.

pjohnson · 01-04-2020 05:49PM

easypazz wrote: »

Once the vulnerable stay away it won't be as big an issue.

Working from home, schools close, libraries closed etc. will keep the numbers on public transport down.

So people with asthma etc. are to be permanently removed from the workforce?

That'll help keep welfare down for sure :pac:

Curious_Case · 01-04-2020 05:50PM

Former Great wrote: »

Noticed a business earlier that really shouldnt be opened , dont like reporting people but who do i report to if i decide to do so

Unless there's a significant footfall I wouldn't bother.

Loafing Oaf · 01-04-2020 05:50PM

easypazz wrote: »

Tell them to stay indoors and put supports in place.

Then its their choice, so in 6 weeks time if they get infected and die then they have nobody to blame but themselves.

As things stand we are all effectively under house arrest.

Are you aware a large proportion of over 65s, even more so the most vulnerable ones, live with children and grandchildren?

crossman47 · 01-04-2020 05:50PM

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

As I’ve said over and over if you read the reported issues everyday after the briefing the dept of health have consistently and clearly (showing their calculations) reported cumulative numbers.

The media and people on Twitter are reporting incorrectly and confusing people who appear unable to do simple maths and read English.

As is George Lee. he reported 126 on the news s the current figure despite being told otherwise at the press briefing.

darjeeling · 01-04-2020 05:50PM

Looptheloop30 wrote: »

Relaxing any form of this lock down would be pissing into the wind and put us back to square one.

Strap yourself in for another few months

As was pointed out by Jeremy Hunt, former UK Health Secretary, lockdowns are a blunt instrument. We can do a lot better.

He proposed continuing to try to suppress the epidemic by using mass, fast testing and contact tracing, the idea being presumably to wait it out until a vaccine is available.

An alternative would be to tolerate it spreading in the low risk population while trying actually to do a proper job of putting a barrier round the vulnerable.
This is riskier and hasn't worked anywhere so far due to lack of PPE, insufficient training, mixing of infected and uninfected patients / home residents, and lack of testing.
Consequently there have been at least 21 hospital outbreaks and 24 nursing home outbreaks here, according to HSE stats.
For it to work would require fast turnaround testing of care staff and patients/home residents for current/past infection, and appropriate PPE and distancing in all care settings - home help, nursing homes, and hospitals.

Either way, we will also need to keep reconfiguring the health service to increase capacity for treating COVID-19 cases and to isolate them from the rest of patients.

Gynoid · 01-04-2020 05:50PM

Earlier I had a look at some media reports from March 4th when we were beginning to hear about issues in Ireland. This was a group of 4, a family back from Italy, all positive for coronavirus. It was in addition to one other case we had heard of, I think.
It was 4 weeks ago.
The local schools said they would close, but only until March 13th. Politicians and health officials said just restrict some classes for a few days.
The Deputy CMO said he saw no reason to advise against punters going to Cheltenham. Tony Holohan said he saw no reason to ban St Patricks day parades, and that schools and universities should remain open.
Italy had 3000 cases on record and 100 deaths.

4 weeks later Italy has 110,000 cases on record and more than 13,000 deaths.
We have had 85 deaths and unknown case numbers due mainly to testing issues.

It has been a very strange 4 weeks.

fritzelly · 01-04-2020 05:51PM

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

As I’ve said over and over if you read the reported issues everyday after the briefing the dept of health have consistently and clearly (showing their calculations) reported cumulative numbers.

The media and people on Twitter are reporting incorrectly and confusing people who appear unable to do simple maths and read English.

Not what the HSE said earlier in the day before changing it to cumulative

woohoo!!! · 01-04-2020 05:51PM

careless sherpa wrote: »

As well as large open plan offices.

I've always hated the large open place office which we've been in for about 10 years. I'll definitely be pushing to maximise working from home hours.

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP