The decline continues

JTMan · 20-03-2020 8:55pm

Latest ABC newspaper stats available. UK numbers here. Ireland in uk numbers here.

Morning papers down 14% and Sundays down 10%.

Meanwhile, Celtic Media have done some temp layoffs.

JTMan · 21-03-2020 9:22am

The WSJ have an interesting article on the effects on Coronavirus on the newspaper industry here (paywall).

IRE60 · 24-03-2020 1:33am

Indian Info graphic from a hospital group - very frightening for the industry if latched on to:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ET1YSb1XQAUAAB8?format=jpg&name=large

But the imma have hit back

https://www.inma.org/blogs/earl/post.cfm/zero-incidents-of-covid-19-transmission-from-print-surfaces

JTMan · 24-03-2020 7:24am

Interesting. One would think that if money can contain the virus, that newspapers could also contain the virus of touched by a other people but the risk is probably exceptionally low.

jmcc · 24-03-2020 11:07am

JTMan wrote: »

Interesting. One would think that if money can contain the virus, that newspapers could also contain the virus of touched by a other people but the risk is probably exceptionally low.

It should, theoretically, cause a spike in digital subscriptions. It may also have people reconsidering whether they need to read the wibbling of columnists since most newspapers shifted away from news towards commentary in the 1990s. The terrible thing about this pandemic is that it hits the newspaper reading demographics hardest and many will have scaled back their trips to the shops and newsagents. It could have resulted in daily sales being off by at least 25%. Might be an interesting article for a freelancer to compare sales from the Spanish Flu pandemic with the C19 pandemic and adjust for greater newspaper readership a hundred years ago. There may be (thinking in terms of Stats/Big Data) a shift from newspaper readership to radio listenership that will parallel a shift from print to digital over the next few months.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc · 25-03-2020 5:41pm

Almost on cue:
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0325/1126320-local-newspaper-job-losses/

Regards...jmcc

IRE60 · 25-03-2020 6:26pm

Yep.... some blow and just the start. I'd doubt the phone hasn't rung in an Ad department in the last 7 days - except to cancel the Easter campaign.

L1011 · 25-03-2020 8:29pm

My local paper is massively down on pages this week and basically only have ads from supermarkets, the state and local politicians left. Don't think there was any district court action to report on which would be part of it

They've massively increased the amount of puzzles as filler but in the current circumstances I'd see that as quite welcome!

JTMan · 25-03-2020 9:24pm

jmcc wrote: »

parallel a shift from print to digital over the next few months.

With some people having a lot more time on their hands, during this crisis, it is plausible that digital subs will increase. People have more time to read quality publications.

Will this crisis cause a long-term shift in behavior? Newspaper sales are already down 60-90% over the last 20 years, those that are left buying newspapers are mainly the elderly, who might not be interested in digital offerings.

That said, at the margins, it might change some behaviour, even if it is 5% of the pre-crisis newspaper base switch to digital, that could be the final nail for some publications.

IRE60 · 26-03-2020 3:59pm

here's dedication for you!

https://www.inma.org/blogs/ideas/post.cfm/the-brave-face-of-joongang-ilbo-s-covid-19-response

dublinman1990 · 26-03-2020 7:21pm

An Post are to offer Irish newspaper titles to purchase online for people who are in quarantine or self-isolation & who cannot get to the shops during this pandemic.

The elderly & vulnerable will be prioritised first. Other people will be offered titles later.

This new arrangement will begin from next week.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/an-post-will-deliver-newspapers-to-your-door-39077326.html

jmcc · 27-03-2020 3:33am

JTMan wrote: »

With some people having a lot more time on their hands, during this crisis, it is plausible that digital subs will increase. People have more time to read quality publications.

The rise of the "Gutter Press" around the time of the Jack The Ripper murders (or the "Yellow Press" in the US) might be more indicative of the way things will go. The "quality" newspapers really have, in recent years, started to believe their own PR to such an extent that the more they considered themselves to be "quality" the more that their readership figures declined.

Will this crisis cause a long-term shift in behavior? Newspaper sales are already down 60-90% over the last 20 years, those that are left buying newspapers are mainly the elderly, who might not be interested in digital offerings.

Digital is a far more dangerous threat to the talking head type publications in that it allows the reader to bypass those articles which they don't want to read and it completely changes the readership model and the analytics model. It provides publishers and advertisers with the data on what articles and adverts are being viewed. AOL developed the Clickbait model in the 1990s and it is isn't a recent thing.

Print advertising and digital advertising differ by centuries in targeting and effectiveness. The "quality" publications generally appeal to the vanity and prejudices of those who read them. That's their hook. Some of the elderly, having developed the habit of buying a daily newspaper over a lifetime, may not want to go completely digital so what may happen is an acceleration to a hybrid digital weekly and print weekend model of publishing for newspapers.

That said, at the margins, it might change some behaviour, even if it is 5% of the pre-crisis newspaper base switch to digital, that could be the final nail for some publications.

Optimistically, it could shift some publications back to news rather than opinion if they survive.

Regards...jmcc

JTMan · 27-03-2020 10:06am

Agree with what you are saying but just to touch on one point ...

jmcc wrote: »

so what may happen is an acceleration to a hybrid digital weekly and print weekend model of publishing for newspapers.

This model has being talked about for a decade+ with minor evidence of implementation. The problems with this model are revenue related and audience related. There is little overlap between those that want print and those that want digital, they are by-in-large two different demographics, the old dears want print, the younger generations want digital. Sure, there are some that want digital Monday to Friday and print at the weekend but most are digital people or print people not a mix of both. Take the Irish Daily Star, for example, could it adopt this model? Not a chance, their shrinking audience are older and want print. The other problem with adopting this model is that most revenue still comes from print. If you stop 5 print editions per week you hammer advertising revenue and sales revenue.

The model that is evolving is print and digital living side-by-side for now. Print is becoming ghost newspapers with low page counts and low quality products aimed at the habitual elderly and advertisers, such as supermarkets, that continue to advertise to these audiences. Digital is splintering into the quality segment that is in some cases thriving and the rest that is dominated by click bait, low quality and copy and paste journalism.

Comhrá · 27-03-2020 3:36pm

Email received from IE today:

Independent.ie

The new reality of the time of coronavirus has dawned. The impact this virus will have on our nation is unprecedented in living memory. Our daily lives are drastically changed, our working rhythms and daily routines with our families shattered.

The threat to the health and very life of our people cannot be overestimated. The importance of winning the desperate battle that lies ahead for our heroic health service cannot be understated. Now is the time for a collective response from society as a whole, each one of us taking responsibility for our own actions.

Now is the time to stay together by staying apart.

While we as a people need to stay apart, today we would like you to know that the Irish Independent and Sunday Independent will be with you every step of the way, every hour of every day.

There has simply never been a greater need for clear journalism that explains exactly what this unfolding situation means for you. Through the worst of times and the best of times -for over 115 years - the Irish Independent and Sunday Independent have reported the news that really matters to our readers.

We remain committed to providing balanced and objective reporting and analysis, giving you the information you need to make the best decisions for you, your family and your community.

We remain committed to providing this, no matter what circumstances unfold.

At present, our print editions are available in most of the usual newsagents, shops, supermarkets and other outlets; and we are thankful to our retail partners for their outstanding work and commitment in these times.

I would like to suggest that you consider taking a digital subscription to Independent.ie, where you can access all the journalism published in the Irish Independent, the Sunday Independent and more. You can do so by visiting www.independent.ie/subscribe.

If you prefer the structure of a newspaper, we can also offer you our e-paper, which you can leaf through to find all your favourites, in much the same way as you would our printed newspapers.

No matter what the format, we know that trusted up-to-date news and information is what you, our readers, need.

We also know that there is more to truly understanding our current situation than facts and information alone. The human stories from the frontline are what is needed to better appreciate the context of the crisis facing us all.

And with the nation in need of inspiration, we are also committed to bringing you the stories of those who are volunteering to help others.

To make our digital offering even more relevant, we have launched our dedicated coronavirus page www.independent.ie/coronavirus, home to key information on the virus, its symptoms and who is most at risk. It also carries the latest information on the impact in other areas of daily life such as education, keeping children entertained and how to stay fit and well.

For those who want a summary of the unfolding events delivered straight to their email inbox, we have refocused our newsletter offering, creating a section of coronavirus information that leads our Daily Digest and Daily Update newsletters. We have also launched a new evening edition of the Daily Digest which will be specifically curated by Ireland Editor Fionnan Sheahan every weekday – bringing you the very best of that day’s information from at home and abroad.

You can sign up here.

On Independent.ie, we will continue to provide news and the latest updates on the coronavirus to all our readers whether they are subscribers or non-subscribers.

We will also endeavour to make sure the most up-do-date information directly relating to health matters is also available to all our readers. However, the reality is that quality, independent journalism costs money and we need to both support and protect it today and in the future. Some pieces, therefore, depending on their nature, will be premium pieces and you will need a subscription to read them.

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IRE60 · 27-03-2020 3:44pm

"At present, our print editions are available".............

Szero · 27-03-2020 4:37pm

Hmmm .. Are INM preparing the ground for pausing the print presses on some of their regional and smaller publications? The question is once the crisis is over, if the print presses are stopped, whether the printing presses will restart or not for these legacy newspaper titles.

BarryD2 · 27-03-2020 4:55pm

JTMan wrote: »

The other problem with adopting this model is that most revenue still comes from print.

Isn't that the issue for many publishers / purveyors of material aimed at sale to the public? From music to news media and a whole range of other producers. Physical product has always generated revenue and the various sales channels deliver a relatively predictable stream of income.

With digital, there are on the one hand too many entities with fingers in the pudding trying to get a slice and on the other an expectation from the public that
content should be ideally free.

I think there's going to have to be a rethink of several aspects: governments need to eliminate sales taxes on digital, the likes of Apple and Google should be removed from the equation in terms of the slices they take on much smart phone content and the public's expectations have to be adjusted. Some evidence of the latter in recent years but most people (myself included) will look first for a free work around for any content we seek.

Subscription models for digital publishing seem to be the in thing. Ditto for software. Must admit I don't like it - I like to pay for a product once and to have it, not some sort of limited licence that goes poof if I don't keep it up.

IRE60 · 27-03-2020 4:58pm

I think they are in a serious pinch.

Yes, they could kill the presses, but, will the ad revenue cover their current costs? I very much doubt it.

They would rely on ad revenue (and subs) for the rest of 2020 and its reported that ad revenue in Google has sh1t the bed completely. https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-google-ad-revenue-loss-coronavirus-1203544502/

So, revenue will be curtailed massively.

Finally, I read they the ‘traditional’ news brands app/platforms are not seeing a massive bounce in users since the C19 began – but the news aggregation sites are seeing a huge increase in traffic.

JTMan · 27-03-2020 5:15pm

Media Guardian have some stats on the impact of C19 on newspaper sales here.

30% decline in sales. Supermarkets cutting orders. Some sales outlets are closed.

National print newspaper sales have fallen by as much as 30% since the start of the government-ordered coronavirus lockdown, according to industry sources, with journalists at many local newspapers placed on leave and warnings that hundreds of reporters could be left without jobs as the advertising market collapses.

Thousands of independent newsagents have closed, commuter traffic is non-existent, and supermarkets are expected to cut the numbers of copies they take from next week because of reduced footfall.

On the other hand, digital subs soaring but digital advertising is falling off a cliff.

So, high quality publications that are reliant on subs are booming. Those that are relying on newspaper sales or digital advertising are in trouble.

JTMan · 01-04-2020 8:08am

Lots of newspaper publishers are now choosing to stop their print editions.

News Corp have stopped printing 60 titles in Oz.

JPIMedia who publish regional UK newspapers have also suspended printing of some titles.

City AM in the UK has also suspended publication.

According to the FT, some US newspapers have also suspended publication too.

Is this happening here?

IRE60 · 01-04-2020 11:39am

Not Yet!

The ABC have changed a whole load of rules and one of them is the requirement for a digital edition to have a print parent.

They also are introducing a 'Covid-19' certificate which is a stand alone cert to be issued each month that the restrictions continue - data will be reported but not used in 'normal reports'. My thinking is that when the restrictions are lifted there will be a new norm and all printed media may not be part of that.

JTMan · 01-04-2020 12:02pm

Interesting. So we will still get to see the ABC numbers but they will be in a different report?

Pay cuts now effecting Irish Media:

"Journal Media is to close its business site http://Fora.ie, scale back its sports website http://the42.ie and cut staff pay by between 5-20 per cent to offset a fall in advertising revenue due to the coronavirus crisis"

Similar occurrences with Newstalk.

IRE60 · 01-04-2020 12:11pm

Splitting the report. There will be one for march from 3rd to 22nd. Then 23March to April 26th April. You can opt for Covid19 report so numbers will be reported - warts and all, but not included in the main reports

IRE60 · 01-04-2020 12:15pm

JTMan wrote: »

Interesting. So we will still get to see the ABC numbers but they will be in a different report?

Pay cuts now effecting Irish Media:

"Journal Media is to close its business site http://Fora.ie, scale back its sports website http://the42.ie and cut staff pay by between 5-20 per cent to offset a fall in advertising revenue due to the coronavirus crisis"

Similar occurrences with Newstalk.

I wonder will any business 'use' this to jettison some of their brands?

Gloomtastic! · 01-04-2020 12:43pm

IRE60 wrote: »

I wonder will any business 'use' this to jettison some of their brands?

I see Mark and Niamh from these here Boards have been put on reduced hours and probably pay as well, as have the development staff.

Fingers crossed for them.....

IRE60 · 01-04-2020 1:08pm

Gloomtastic! wrote: »

I see Mark and Niamh from these here Boards have been put on reduced hours and probably pay as well, as have the development staff.

Fingers crossed for them.....

Unaware of that and,in the full light of day, the remark may have been a little to close to the bone for them. Wishing them (and all) well.

C

JTMan · 01-04-2020 4:31pm

IRE60 wrote: »

I wonder will any business 'use' this to jettison some of their brands?

Companies often use a crisis to make painful changes that can be blamed on the crisis.

Whenever we emerge from this crisis, newspapers and online brands that have being "suspended" may never see the light of day again.

IRE60 · 01-04-2020 6:16pm

Neilson were reporting that there was a 25% increase in off-sales in the UK and suggested that there may be a paradigm shift in that market if people get a feel for staying at home and drinking at home.
Likewise, all the people that hung doggedly to the print edition (perhaps the 70's+) may have been forced to seek solace in the arms of a digital product/brand - perhaps forever turning their back on the paper product.

The parasitic scrapers and aggregators are the next challenge to the news brands.

jmcc · 02-04-2020 1:00am

IRE60 wrote: »

The parasitic scrapers and aggregators are the next challenge to the news brands.

That is a major problem with content sites. Some of the Chinese software allows fake sites to be built from scraped content, search engine results and blog posts is quite sophisticated and can produce thousands of sites on a run. The junk new gTLDs with low registration fees for new domain names enable this kind of webspam. This webspam is used to promote other sites via backlinks or for PPC or phishing purposes.

The scraping from hosting service providers can easily be blocked at an IP address level. To get around that, some of these scrapers now use networks of compromised PCs on ISPs. A website operator has to have a hunter-killer mindset and be willing to deepsix the IP ranges of entire countries if necessary.

Aggregators aren't all bad and can drive traffic. However, the people launching new ventures often have absolutely no idea of the threats to their content. CAPTCHAs don't always work. The biggest scraper of all is Google.

Regards...jmcc

JTMan · 05-04-2020 11:57am

Some further stats on the recent collapse:

-In the Republic, roughly 170 shops that sell newspapers closed, and about 100 in Northern Ireland. This means an immediate circulation drop of 10%-20% and that's before allowing for the fact that those aged 70+ cannot venture out to buy a newspaper and many others choosing not to venture out.
- Industry sources say that ad revenue is down 70% over the past two weeks.
- Liam Kavanagh, managing director of The Irish Times, warned staff: “We will need to achieve significant cost savings to help mitigate the steep decline in revenues.” The IT have not cut regional news like Iconic and Celtic have, maybe IT are next for cuts. INM cannot be far behind.

silverharp · 05-04-2020 3:14pm

Scott Adams of Dilbert fame thinks his job is over after this, reckons a high% of US newspapers will go out of business

L1011 · 06-04-2020 12:31am

silverharp wrote: »

Scott Adams of Dilbert fame thinks his job is over after this, reckons a high% of US newspapers will go out of business

Well, that would at least partially be because he alienated his online following by becoming a total lunatic in the past few years. No online ad revenue to be made when you've no viewers.

Gekko · 06-04-2020 2:42am

JTMan wrote: »

Some further stats on the recent collapse:

-In the Republic, roughly 170 shops that sell newspapers closed, and about 100 in Northern Ireland. This means an immediate circulation drop of 10%-20% and that's before allowing for the fact that those aged 70+ cannot venture out to buy a newspaper and many others choosing not to venture out.
- Industry sources say that ad revenue is down 70% over the past two weeks.
- Liam Kavanagh, managing director of The Irish Times, warned staff: “We will need to achieve significant cost savings to help mitigate the steep decline in revenues.” The IT have not cut regional news like Iconic and Celtic have, maybe IT are next for cuts. INM cannot be far behind.

Scary

silverharp · 06-04-2020 10:29am

L1011 wrote: »

Well, that would at least partially be because he alienated his online following by becoming a total lunatic in the past few years. No online ad revenue to be made when you've no viewers.

not really related to the point though , it was just his observation about newspaper media. I dont know how right or wrong his prediction will be. It is safe to assume that this event will accelerate pre existing trends

JTMan · 06-04-2020 6:42pm

Media Guardian: The newspaper industry was already faltering. Will coronavirus obliterate it?

JTMan · 06-04-2020 7:46pm

INM to introduce pay cuts and avail of government support schemes.

So Iconic, Celtic, Reach and INM have announced cuts. IT the only big player yet to announce cuts.

doublej · 08-04-2020 1:17am

JTMan wrote: »

INM to introduce pay cuts and avail of government support schemes.

So Iconic, Celtic, Reach and INM have announced cuts. IT the only big player yet to announce cuts.

Is this the same IMN that transferred €60 million to their Belgian parent at the end of last year? This money was sent to earn interest of .6% as it was incapable of earning a similar rate in Ireland!

Are we devoid of any sense of outrage to be silent and allow INM avail of a Subsidy that should be reserved for employers that would have serious difficulties in meeting payments of payroll without assistance?

IRE60 · 08-04-2020 6:59am

doublej wrote: »

Are we devoid of any sense of outrage to be silent and allow INM avail of a Subsidy that should be reserved for employers that would have serious difficulties in meeting payments of payroll without assistance?

WTF! Are we going to pick and choose the companies allowed to avail of the scheme based on the chip on your shoulder? The scheme is available to all, Galway 2020, Galon Weston, Celtic Media....

Cheers!

IRE60 · 08-04-2020 7:01am

JTMan wrote: »

INM to introduce pay cuts and avail of government support schemes.

IT the only big player yet to announce cuts.

But they did fire a warning shot late last week.

JTMan · 09-04-2020 6:54am

The Business Post have joined the brigade cutting salaries and availing of government supports blaming the decline in print advertising. https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0408/1129376-business-post-pay/

JTMan · 09-04-2020 4:44pm

Interesting Media Guardian article on extinction-level crisis in the US newspaper industry.

JTMan · 09-04-2020 6:24pm

IRE60 wrote: »

But they did fire a warning shot late last week.

IT join in with cuts. 30% pay cuts for higher paid staff, reduced hours and availing of government subsidies. Advertising suffering badly.

jmcc · 11-04-2020 1:01pm

Seems that The Journal has shuttered fora.ie and has gone the Gruaniad route of soliciting donations to keep running. Not exactly print media but it highlights the danger of a Huffington Post wannabe model in a market as small as that of Ireland.

Regards...jmcc

JTMan · 12-04-2020 5:10pm

3 fascinating articles on what is happening in the industry right now ...

Roy Greenslade reports for Media Guardian that print papers have been defying predictions of doom for two decades. But this pandemic is likely to finish off many titles. Roy discusses the cuts in the newspaper industry and concludes that we are at a pivot moment in the history of the 380-year British newspaper history.

Interesting FT article here (via the IT) with some hard stats on what is happening right now. Sales at major supermarkets fell as much as 48 per cent in the week to March 24th, while those at travel hubs and motorway stores fell as much as 67 per cent and 70 per cent respectively.

Meanwhile Press Gazette has a very well researched piece on what is happening in the US newspaper industry here.

Roy is right. We are at a pivotal moment in the history of newspapers. Titles that were already hanging by a thread before this crisis, will not emerge at the other end of this crisis.

Szero · 13-04-2020 10:09am

Wow. Some really shocking articles. This is the 2008 crisis on steroids. Sometimes a crisis is needed for something to happen that was always inevitable. Print will eventually die. This crisis might move us further along this change path.

This crisis will not kill print in its entirety but will shake out some low hanging fruit. Perhaps some of the Irish tabloids such as the Irish Daily Star and the Irish Mirror might end up on a chopping board along with some regionals?

Seems that The Journal has shuttered fora.ie and has gone the Guardian route of soliciting donations to keep running. Not exactly print media but it highlights the danger of a Huffington Post wannabe model in a market as small as that of Ireland

There are still to this day very few examples of profitable online news models that survive on advertising alone. The Journal is not alone - Buzzfeed has cut staff salaries by 25%. The Journal (especially Fora) is far from a sustainable model.

We need a decent Spotify type news product here asap.

jmcc · 13-04-2020 3:32pm

Szero wrote: »

Wow. Some really shocking articles. This is the 2008 crisis on steroids.

It is not. It is a very different situation from 2008. In 2008, cheap and relatively high quality resolution tablets and mobile devices were almost non-existent. (Generally, only Techies are aware of such things so don't expect the "technology" journalists to notice these things and their relevance.) This means that the balance in the publishing media has changed from a print orientated one towards an electronic one. In 2008, more people bought print editions of newspapers than read them online. This was typically out of habit but there was no real competition from online newspaper publication because it meant reading them on a laptop or a desktop. Now, with tablet devices under 100 Euro and almost everyone having a mobile phone with a relatively decent screen, the cost has shifted in favour of these multi-use devices.

There are still to this day very few examples of profitable online news models that survive on advertising alone.

The Journal is just comment as content. It is/was trying to emulate the Huffington Post model in the tiny Irish market. Basically, it is "views" rather than news. I know that this sounds very politically incorrect but the market for happy-clappiness isn't exactly lucrative when all the happy-clappies are mainly unemployed and the businesses that were once advertising have shut down or stopped their advertising campaigns.

We need a decent Spotify type news product here asap.

This is another interesting point. How people consume news has changed. Because of the effects of the Web, attention spans have narrowed. Rather than reading a long article, people want instant information. This means that the more successful news articles are generally shorter for this market. This trend towards more compact news began decades ago. While people of modest intelligence (the typical Irish opinion column crayon jockey) generally look down on the Tabloids as being written for a lower form of life, the reality is that they are written in a compressed format that doesn't waste words on pontification. This compression of news is something that people have come to expect and it can be seen and heard with TV and radio news. The other aspect of a Spotify approach is that it would allow the listener/viewer to select only the news that they want. That is what happened with the Web and its effect on print newspapers. The reader can choose what they want to read rather than having to buy the whole print newspaper to read a single article. A micro-credit system where readers can pay per article might work with some publications but there isn't really anything worth paying for in the Journal and Fora seemed to be advertorial and press releases masquerading as content.

Regards...jmcc

Gloomtastic! · 13-04-2020 5:28pm

I still miss the Thumbs Down option The Journal used to have on their comments.

Gekko · 14-04-2020 1:13am

The Journal relying on donations is not sustainable in the medium to long term. A move of desperation

Some of the tabloids need to die off: The Star, The Express, The Sun, The Mirror. Irish version of the Daily Mail, Evening Herald

silverharp · 14-04-2020 9:01am

spare a thought for all the click bait hucksters out there

jmcc · 14-04-2020 9:03am

Gekko wrote: »

The Journal relying on donations is not sustainable in the medium to long term. A move of desperation

It seems that they are trying to emulate the Gruaniad in this respect but the it has a large number of daily readers online and it apparently is doing well from the subscriptions and donations. People may not completely agree with the editorial stance but will read it because of the high quality journalism. It also has a wider range of articles and coverage.

The problem for the Journal is that it does not have the same volume of daily traffic and its news coverage is definitely not in the same league.

Regards...jmcc

The decline continues

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