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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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Comments

  • #4082
    Pseudonym121
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 309 ✭✭Pseudonym121


    No median and average are different. Median is being used in order to keep the age high as average would yield a significantly lower age.

    In research papers there’d always a reason you choose median vs average. The use of median instead of average is very calculated.


  • #4083
    Hector Savage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,809 ✭✭✭Hector Savage


    They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


    F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...


  • #4084
    paw patrol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭paw patrol


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    Trump at last admits that this is not the flu and that the coronavirus is far more viscous. Three month too late, but I suppose better late than never. :rolleyes:


    .
    I don't get this attitude , why is trump singled out for something that is 3 months too late...?

    go back 3 months and you'll find the only people in the west concerned about this were people like alex jones. Others in the US with like governors etc who have direct local power - were actually encouraging people to get out and socialise
    Putin was bothered by it but only end of jan . Outside of asia he was probably the first to act.

    Until quite recently we weren't sure it would even get to Ireland....but as you know - skiers gotta ski.


  • #4085
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    No median and average are different. Median is being used in order to keep the age high as average would yield a significantly lower age.

    In research papers there’d always a reason you choose median vs average. The use of median instead of average is very calculated.

    To not create panic, do you think? Or some other reason?


  • #4086
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    Hector Savage wrote: »
    They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


    F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...

    Stop that kind of talk immediately!


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  • #4087
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Hector Savage wrote: »
    They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


    F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...

    Hector! I’m sending you a virtual hug right now. Keep strong xxxxxx


  • #4088
    mwv
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28 ✭mwv


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    No, that's the mean, the median is 84, and the median is what is being reported
    I just copped before I saw your comment, thanks for that!


  • #4089
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Hector Savage wrote: »
    They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


    F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...

    If you're serious contact your next of kin, your GP or go to A&E immediately.


  • #4090
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    Gynoid wrote: »
    Stop that kind of talk immediately!
    Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »
    Hector! I’m sending you a virtual hug right now. Keep strong xxxxxx

    And there we have descriptive evidence of different parenting styles :)

    Hector...I am warning you


  • #4091
    Steve F
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭Steve F


    Hector Savage wrote: »
    They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


    F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...

    If you're struggling is there anyone you can talk to?


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  • #4092
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Gynoid wrote: »
    And there we have descriptive evidence of different parenting styles :)

    Hector...I am warning you

    It’s the good cop bad cop routine :D


  • #4093
    Hrududu
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,712 ✭✭✭Hrududu


    Hector Savage wrote: »
    They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


    F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...
    I mean this in the nicest way, but you've been freaking out in these threads for a while. You should really cut down on the amount of news you consume on this. It will send your anxiety sky high and really what does keeping up to date on the figures mean? Just chill in your house and try to do stuff that keeps your mind off it.

    Easier said than done I know.


  • #4094
    domrush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭domrush


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    No median and average are different. Median is being used in order to keep the age high as average would yield a significantly lower age.

    In research papers there’d always a reason you choose median vs average. The use of median instead of average is very calculated.

    Median is typically used on a heavily skewed dataset, which is what we have here. The age of deaths is heavily weighted to older ages, it makes far more sense to use median than mean here.

    There’s no deceiving going on here


  • #4095
    paw patrol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭paw patrol


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    No median and average are different. Median is being used in order to keep the age high as average would yield a significantly lower age.

    In research papers there’d always a reason you choose median vs average. The use of median instead of average is very calculated.

    this is so important , the media should be calling the state out on this.

    Its very sly behaviour of which we've seen a fair bit from the state during this. Keep the population ignorant of the real situation.


  • #4096
    domrush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭domrush


    paw patrol wrote: »
    this is so important , the media should be calling the state out on this.

    Its very sly behaviour of which we've seen a fair bit from the state during this. Keep the population ignorant of the real situation.

    See my post above, it would be scientifically inappropriate to use the mean here


  • #4097
    paw patrol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭paw patrol


    domrush wrote: »
    Median is typically used on a heavily skewed dataset, which is what we have here. The age of deaths is heavily weighted to older ages, it makes far more sense to use median than mean here.

    There’s no conceiving going on here

    it is deception.
    they are reporting median to the population when they know a large chunk of people wouldn't really get it and confuse it with average.
    they could give both in the interest of full disclosure but they don't.

    this is done on purpose.


  • #4098
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    No median and average are different. Median is being used in order to keep the age high as average would yield a significantly lower age.

    In research papers there’d always a reason you choose median vs average. The use of median instead of average is very calculated.

    Both numbers have their uses. Median much more useful in reporting on income as it is highly variable. Publish both numbers, job done.

    Transparency has been improving but still gaps everywhere.


  • #4099
    rusty the athlete
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭rusty the athlete


    Kivaro wrote: »
    The whole world needs to work together in this life/death battle.


    I would merely add "in a coordinated and consistent way" to your last sentence. Unfortunately this has proved impossible for the human race, there are simply far too many political models where egos are more important than the national good, let alone knows the worldwide good.


    I suppose if we could get something in place like incident reporting in civil aviation, in which most countries are bound to adhere to on pain of being totally isolated, then we would have an objective, standardized and consistent way of at least understanding common factors and re-occuring themes in the development of epidemics and pandemics. Even the likes of trump cant ignore aviation rules and directives.


  • #4100
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Looking at the estimated progress of this.

    Cases should peak c. 10 April, deaths should peak c. 17 April.

    By 10 May we will see some reduction in the 'lockdown' gradually reopening of the economy but with significant social distancing rules etc. One person to a table etc.

    By 10 June we can expect hotels etc to begin to open again......pubs to open if adhereing to strict measures and authorised by the HSE...., some flights beginning ….

    By 10 July further relaxation of measures but still strict social distancing.....(message that we must halt the risk of a second peak)

    Regarding flights I think we are going to have our temperatures taken on departure and arrival


  • #4101
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    No median and average are different. Median is being used in order to keep the age high as average would yield a significantly lower age.

    In research papers there’d always a reason you choose median vs average. The use of median instead of average is very calculated.

    Median is much more useful in most cases. An in this case as well as outliers, high or low, can obstufcate the data. The median tells us that half of all deaths are 84 or older. Thats useful. However one or two younger deaths could push the average to 60 or lower. Thats less useful.


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  • #4102
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    amadangomor wrote: »
    Apparently not, Trumps popularity is very high at the moment:(
    High for Trump, Bush was way higher after 9/11.


  • #4103
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,591 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    Looking at the estimated progress of this.

    Cases should peak c. 10 April, deaths should peak c. 17 April.

    By 10 May we will see some reduction in the 'lockdown' gradually reopening of the economy but with significant social distancing rules etc. One person to a table etc.

    By 10 June we can expect hotels etc to begin to open again......pubs to open if adhereing to strict measures and authorised by the HSE...., some flights beginning ….

    By 10 July further relaxation of measures but still strict social distancing.....(message that we must halt the risk of a second peak)

    Regarding flights I think we are going to have our temperatures taken on departure and arrival

    You don’t envisage schools opening then?


  • #4104
    Hrududu
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,712 ✭✭✭Hrududu


    This might have already been discussed. But on the figures from last night. We've tightened the restrictions on who gets tested. Now we've gone from 6% of those tested being positive to 15%. But thats still very low. Is there a dose going around with multiple similar symptoms? Are they tests giving some false negatives? Are people convincing themselves that they have symptoms that they don't?


  • #4105
    bilston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,009 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Kivaro wrote: »
    It is reprehensible to humanity that China is still dishonest with their reporting, and their attitude is despicable because the world was looking at their numbers initially on how to respond to the crisis. It is now presumed that China's numbers could be as high by a factor of 40 times of what they initially reported.

    China has just now started today to included asymptomatic positives to their results. In the past, they did not include them. It has been proven that asymptomatic carriers do pass on the virus, and this was also confirmed by China themselves today. They are going to great pains to point out that the source of new infections are being imported from overseas into China, and while that may be true, it may also be a mechanism for them to "correct" their initial reporting.
    The whole world needs to work together in this life/death battle.

    It's going to look a bit odd when all this is over than "only" 3,000 people in China died and potentially a quarter of million people died in the US and probably a similar amount across the whole of Europe.


  • #4106
    JaimeLannister
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 135 ✭✭JaimeLannister


    paw patrol wrote: »
    it is deception.
    they are reporting median to the population when they know a large chunk of people wouldn't really get it and confuse it with average.
    they could give both in the interest of full disclosure but they don't.

    this is done on purpose.

    The Median vs. Mean thing has been bothering me for a while. Using the Median will always serve to hide outliers. Which in this case will be younger folk as you are never going to have any outliers on the "older" end of the scale i.e. 150 or 170 y.o.

    So won't it always give an artificially high number? Especially as the no. of deaths rises


  • #4107
    quokula
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,841 ✭✭✭quokula


    Hrududu wrote: »
    This might have already been discussed. But on the figures from last night. We've tightened the restrictions on who gets tested. Now we've gone from 6% of those tested being positive to 15%. But thats still very low. Is there a dose going around with multiple similar symptoms? Are they tests giving some false negatives? Are people convincing themselves that they have symptoms that they don't?

    Not that many people have it and lots of people have common colds and flus that give similar symptoms.


  • #4108
    crisco10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,341 ✭✭✭crisco10


    FVP3 wrote: »
    Media is much more useful in most cases. An in this case as well as outliers, high or low, can obstufcate the data. The median tells us that half of all deaths are 84 or older. Thats useful. However one or two younger deaths could push the average to 60 or lower. Thats less useful.

    100% this.

    For the sample data set given earlier; 18, 24, 35, 52, 84, 86, 86,90, 92:
    • The mean is 63. Not One of the sample set are within 10 years of that number.
    • The median is 84, Five of the set are within 10 years of that number.


    So which is the more representative??


  • #4109
    loveall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭loveall


    Jan 22nd... I'd just lit my last smoke before flying out of a Spanish airport. An Italian guy came over with no English. I gathered he wanted a cigarette or a light and offered him both but he was insistent on "poco". Really insistent. Wasn't a hope I was giving him the cigarette from my lips and after an awkward few minutes he went away with nothing.
    Still sticks out as being odd.


  • #4110
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    paw patrol wrote: »
    it is deception.
    they are reporting median to the population when they know a large chunk of people wouldn't really get it and confuse it with average.
    they could give both in the interest of full disclosure but they don't.

    this is done on purpose.

    How is it deception, what utter trollop.

    Example: We have 7 people die. There is a 35 year old with end stage cancer who caught the virus and died, the rest are in there 70s, 80s or 90s.

    35 77 78 82 84 86 88

    Median 82
    Average 76

    Which is more representative?


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  • #4111
    dublin99
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 226 ✭✭dublin99


    Japanese experiment and micro droplet theory that virus can spread during conversation. This may explain the spread in say business meetings and over dinner.

    Masks can reduce the risk.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vBvFkQizTT4


This discussion has been closed.
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