CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

DOCARCH · 31-03-2020 08:25PM

The fact there are now 71 deaths indicates there are (at least) 7,100 case in the country.

Heard virologist (from Queens in Belfast) the other day say that for every death there are a minimum of 100 cases (confirmed or unconfirmed).

Wailin · 31-03-2020 08:26PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

any theories on why it seems to affect men more than women?

Because health issues such as hypertension, lung disease, heart disease and stroke affect more men than women globally.

Sweet.Science · 31-03-2020 08:26PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The close contact news is good, at the start it was 20 then 5 and now on average 3 which is really within households.

The next 2 weeks are crucial for us

Why the next 2 weeks? Not until we get a vaccine ?

wadacrack · 31-03-2020 08:26PM

Some of the reporters need to think before they ask questions.Literally wasting time and just add nothing but tire the Health officials. Holohan now understandably not feeling well, as he has been too gracious to purely idiotic questions. Some good questions regarding testing at the start but after that it was embarrassing. Twitter rumors shouldn't come into it at all. Hopefully its noting only fatigue for Tony Holohan. Hes conducted himself admirably though out this.

sdanseo · 31-03-2020 08:27PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtenews/status/1245061894978678784?s=20

Intensive care units are under significant pressure due to the growing number of #Covid19 cases. 107 patients are on ventilators and 26 patients with suspected coronavirus are in ICU beds.

So if I'm reading that right, there are only 26 COVID-19 related cases on ventilators? (107 being the total for all reasons).

That's an very low statistic if so. 0.81% of active cases needing ventilation thus far (total probably closer to 2.7%, however, if you assume the 59 who died in hospital all required one too)

Quantum Erasure · 31-03-2020 08:27PM

Nermal wrote: »

The INMO were always great at counting patients on trolleys. Perhaps we could get them in to count who's in the ICU? The lack of clarity over such an important indicator is comical.

we should get Paddy Cosgrave on the case...

Fann Linn · 31-03-2020 08:27PM

flashforward wrote: »

If we are only able to process 1500 tests a day we are simply blind to what is happening.

The new criteria could(should) result in the expected positive rate of 30->50% this would still mean our cap for daily new cases is 750/day.

Unless we significantly increase the # of tests turned around/day we have no idea where we stand on any graph - flat or peaked

Prof. Crown was saying earlier that we should actually be counting the numbers from swabbing to test complete to patient being told. That's the figure he would like to see.

fritzelly · 31-03-2020 08:27PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtenews/status/1245061894978678784?s=20

Intensive care units are under significant pressure due to the growing number of #Covid19 cases. 107 patients are on ventilators and 26 patients with suspected coronavirus are in ICU beds.

OK wrong way round - still adds up to the same figure and not accumulative as some keep saying

YFlyer · 31-03-2020 08:28PM

Naggdefy wrote: »

The standard of jogging is very poor though. Saw some pedestrian jogging. It's not beautiful jogging.

They all can't glide like Bernard Lagat.

darced · 31-03-2020 08:28PM

So 325 cases out of 1500 odd tests?

Kermit.de.frog · 31-03-2020 08:28PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtenews/status/1245061894978678784?s=20

Intensive care units are under significant pressure due to the growing number of #Covid19 cases. 107 patients are on ventilators and 26 patients with suspected coronavirus are in ICU beds.

Presumably those on ventilators are in ICU beds. Where else would they be?

screamer · 31-03-2020 08:28PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

any theories on why it seems to affect men more than women?

Ace receptors in lungs is one I’ve read.

New Home · 31-03-2020 08:29PM

twirlagig wrote: »

Off Topic sorry, but are there any Animal Welfare places that need fostering for a cat or preferably a small dog?
Based in East Galway. PM if so, don’t want to derail thread, thanks

Ask in the Animals & Pets forum.

is_that_so · 31-03-2020 08:29PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

Prof. Crown was saying earlier that we should actually be counting the numbers from swabbing to test complete to patient being told. That's the figure he would like to see.

I'm sure he would!

threeball · 31-03-2020 08:29PM

Cases finally falling in Italy but rocketing in the US. They're up at 17000 for the day with not all states reported. Thats almost one third of the entire reported global cases.

flashforward · 31-03-2020 08:29PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

We need to get back up to testing +5k each day with the more stringent criteria.

If we keep this low level of testing we won’t have a clear picture of the real number of infections.

To confirm they were never 'testing' 5000 per day.
They were Swabbing 5000 per day

On the 23rd march they were get results at a rate of 1350/day

We are now at 1500/day

People can bury their heads in the sand all they want but we have no clue where we are with this thing.

All this push to open new test 'swabbing' centres with no capacity to convert these to results.....

tuxy · 31-03-2020 08:30PM

What's more common in my area is people standing in one spot, usually in the way of people trying to walk.
Just looking around at random things in the hope of spotting something interesting. It looks so odd.

BLIZZARD7 · 31-03-2020 08:30PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Presumably those on ventilators are in ICU beds. Where else would they be?

This^ the other 26 are also in ICU but don't require ventilators yet (and hopefully won't). That was my reading of the figures anyway.

The other 107 are on ventilators and in ICU beds.

An Ciarraioch · 31-03-2020 08:30PM

Is 550 still the total number of ICU beds in the system?

Kermit.de.frog · 31-03-2020 08:31PM

threeball wrote: »

Cases finally falling in Italy

The rate of rise is falling back.

spookwoman · 31-03-2020 08:31PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

any theories on why it seems to affect men more than women?

It's known that women are more prone to autoimmune problems but are less prone to catching diseases. They think it might be something to do with the x chromosome.
https://tidsskriftet.no/en/2017/06/kronikk/why-are-autoimmune-diseases-more-prevalent-women

is_that_so · 31-03-2020 08:31PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Why the next 2 weeks? Not until we get a vaccine ?

If the rate drops quickly enough we can manage the level of infection so that the health system can cope.

Duke of Url · 31-03-2020 08:31PM

sdanseo wrote: »

So if I'm reading that right, there are only 26 COVID-19 related cases on ventilators? (107 being the total for all reasons).

That's an very low statistic if so. 0.81% of cases needing ventilation thus far, surely one of the lowest such figures on the planet.

No idea. I’m confused.

blackcard · 31-03-2020 08:31PM

One of the learnings from the 2010 big freeze was to have sufficient salt available for our roads and this hasn't been an issue since. Some of the learnings from the current crisis?
Sufficient ventilators?
Additional Test kits?
Sufficient reagents?
Sufficient masks and other personal protection equipment?
Additional measures for nursing homes?
Measures such as perspex glass in shops?
Hygiene education and practices?
Increased numbers of ICU's?
Increased capability to work from home?
Not to believe a fraction of what you read on social media?
Social distancing?
What else?

Reckless Abandonment · 31-03-2020 08:31PM

I'm very curious as to why they haven't been able to run more tests . They are firing money around like mad at the moment so it can't be that.

dummy_crusher · 31-03-2020 08:32PM

twirlagig wrote: »

Off Topic sorry, but are there any Animal Welfare places that need fostering for a cat or preferably a small dog?
Based in East Galway. PM if so, don’t want to derail thread, thanks

GSPCA and MADRA

martingriff · 31-03-2020 08:32PM

flashforward wrote: »

To confirm they were never 'testing' 5000 per day.
They were Swabbing 5000 per day

On the 23rd march they were get results at a rate of 1350/day

We are now at 1500/day

People can bury their heads in the sand all they want but we have no clue where we are with this thing.

All this push to open new test 'swabbing' centres with no capacity to convert these to results.....

Whats your point here?

They tested 5000 by swabbing people

fritzelly · 31-03-2020 08:32PM

sdanseo wrote: »

So if I'm reading that right, there are only 26 COVID-19 related cases on ventilators? (107 being the total for all reasons).

That's an very low statistic if so. 0.81% of active cases needing ventilation thus far (total probably closer to 2.7%, however, if you assume the 59 who died in hospital all required one too)

107+26 - both figures are for covid

SweetCaliber · 31-03-2020 08:33PM

Right folks that's a wrap for March's data. 3,235 Confirmed Cases and 71 Deaths leaving an estimated 3,164 Active Cases (No word on recoveries so not 100% accurate). 113 Required ICU as of 29th March.

I've updated my Spreadsheet and added a separate sheet for April.This will be viewable tomorrow via the original link. I'll keep March's data on the Charts to give an overall picture.

For Aprils data I've toned the estimated increases down to 15% per day as the last few have been in and around that. If you have a better percentage then please let me know. Overall if it continues at around 15% a day, we would be looking at close to 210,000 cases by the end of April. Hopefully this doesn't happen but its always important to see the long term outcome of the worst case scenario.

Again feedback on the percentage is welcome, you can view charts and spreadsheet here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IMavHMFAT59NaRmSJxfHIVxAhiT46CmzL0tj0Esqalc/

Fann Linn · 31-03-2020 08:33PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I'm sure he would!

Why the comments?
Isn't another educated voice an asset in all of this?

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP