CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

30-03-2020 08:17PM

jackboy wrote: »

Guards out pointing a scanner at cars but not stopping anyone. What is that about? It’s outside a town and definitely not a speed check.

Taking the car temperature?

Achasanai · 30-03-2020 08:17PM

Del Griffith wrote: »

I doubt anyone in the universe involved in health is not being cautious right now

They may be trying to be cautious, but if they don't have the right gear, there'll be (avoidable) infections. There's a lot of anger in the NHS regarding their PPE gear (or rather their lack of) and (anecdotally) there's a similar sentiment over here.

ninebeanrows · 30-03-2020 08:17PM

RobertKK wrote: »

EU countries with higher populations than Ireland with less people in critical or serious condition.

Poland 3 (31 deaths) population around 38m
Romania 33 (52 deaths) population around 20m
Hungary 6 (15 deaths) population around 10m
Bulgaria 13 (8 deaths) population around 7m

Ireland is listed at 59 (54 deaths) population around 5m

There is this myth we are doing better than others but some of these countries had quarantine for 14 days for people coming from Italy and other affected areas.
Some of them had governments who stopped flights to hotspots and not wait for the airlines to do it.
Plus secured their borders to control it.

Our death toll is most likely higher with our smaller population due to the initial inaction.

It's all Leo's and Fine Gaels fault this virus, if Mary Lou was in with Health guru Louise Reilly wed all be spending Easter with our families

Cork Boy 53 · 30-03-2020 08:18PM

rossie1977 wrote: »

Public transport all suspended including private coaches and buses.

Car use prohibited unless in emergency

Forcing people to stay home, only one trip each week by written request. Anyone out without request is either sent home, fined or jailed depending on how times they disobey order.

Army and Gardaí patrolling every town in country

That sort of lockdown or something like we have seen in Italy.

Ideally that is what should happen. Unfortunately the resources are not there to enforce it. The fines and /or jail time could be introduced to some degree though.

Wibbs · 30-03-2020 08:19PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It's all Leo's and Fine Gaels fault this virus, if Mary Lou was in with Health guru Louise Reilly wed all be spending Easter with our families

in Glassnevin.

STB. · 30-03-2020 08:19PM

poppers wrote: »

I think the high rate of infection in the health care workers is could be due to the fact that ireland is not used to seeing highly infectious diseases so people are not overly cautious when dealing with patients.
Even on the continent you get Rabies etc. Just an opinion

.

Its most likely down to the manner in which staff were left to protect themselves, with nothing, No or limited PPE. Infact it was so limted that the HSE sent the most ridiculous circular to staff telling them to stick their used PPE in an oven at 70degrees for 30 minutes.

Did you not see the videos from staff pleading for PPE from anyone in Ireland that had some? Because their employer let them down.

ceadaoin. · 30-03-2020 08:19PM

jackboy wrote: »

That’s fair enough. I didn’t realize they had scanners that could instantly give them such details. Definitely handy in this situation.

Yeah handy in this situation. And they will stop using them after?

These are the sort of powers the US police have that are completely abused and which are routinely criticized on here.

poppers · 30-03-2020 08:20PM

Del Griffith wrote: »

I doubt anyone in the universe involved in health is not being cautious right now

I do contract work in pharma labs youd be suprised what people do by habit even with toxic chemicals mainly becuse they are used to working with less potent materials

is_that_so · 30-03-2020 08:21PM

STB. wrote: »

.

Its most likely down to the manner in which staff were left to protect themselves, with nothing, No or limited PPE. Infact it was so limted that the HSE sent the most ridiculous circular to staff telling them to stick their used PPE in an oven at 70degrees for 30 minutes.

Did you not see the videos from staff pleading for PPE from anyone in Ireland that had some? Because their employer let them down.

Well, they now have PPE coming out their ears or will do by Wednesday.

RobertKK · 30-03-2020 08:21PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Those figures are not necessarily up to date. Its very unlikely poland has 3 patients in a serious condition out of 2000.

Germany's serious/critical stats were not updated for a long time and I thinkit said 2 in a serious condition when they had 10,000 cases. Its 2000 in a serious or critical condition now, took a long time to update

But their deaths tolls are lower and I hope for them they stay that way.
I know from an Eastern European friend they had taken action up to at least 2 weeks before we did anything.
We just had people deflecting from responsibility due to an election until it was too late.

maebee · 30-03-2020 08:21PM

Ficheall wrote: »

There are 31 days in March.

Yea, most years. This year it has 61😉

growleaves · 30-03-2020 08:21PM

Ideally that is what should happen. Unfortunately the resources are not there to enforce it. The fines and /or jail time could be introduced to some degree though.

You would need a huge recruitment drive if you want a guard hiding behind every postbox.

There's already been talk of a €2,500 fine and up to six months imprisonment.

Jim_Hodge · 30-03-2020 08:22PM

celt262 wrote: »

It might have been better to check it in China if it turns out faulty.

Christ almighty! Then it would be "why are they fapping about checking the stuff in China when we need it over here?"

People just love a good old complain.

RobertKK · 30-03-2020 08:22PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It's all Leo's and Fine Gaels fault this virus, if Mary Lou was in with Health guru Louise Reilly wed all be spending Easter with our families

They were all asleep thinking about an election result.

is_that_so · 30-03-2020 08:23PM

growleaves wrote: »

You would need a huge recruitment drive if you want a guard hiding behind every postbox.

There's already been talk of a €2,500 fine and up to six months imprisonment.

We may not get to that point at all. Compliance overall has been good so I can't see them granting powers like that.

smelly sock · 30-03-2020 08:24PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It's all Leo's and Fine Gaels fault this virus, if Mary Lou was in with Health guru Louise Reilly wed all be spending Easter with our families

Source

Zardoz · 30-03-2020 08:24PM

Amirani wrote: »

It was based on expert modelling of unmitigated growth.

That's still the baseline growth rate in an uncontained scenario. This stuff is pretty basic, if you can't understand it it's probably worth leaving the figures/stats alone altogether?

Yes ,it is basic stats and it was a ridiculously high figure.

Italy has 101k cases,Spain has 72k cases and both those countries are ravaged by it.
Italys population is 60m, Spain 47m,both more than 10 times our population .

Ireland introduced numerous restrictions and had the benefit of seeing what happened in other countries like China,Italy and Spain .

15k cases by the end of March in a population of 5m was too high .

Lord Fairlord · 30-03-2020 08:24PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

2 domestic murders and a murder suicide in the UK in recent days.

A person on here was calling for the guards to use violence against people who go out to buy food. Some are actually hoping for martial law.

Police in the UK are harassing and shaming people who arent breaking the law, people are reporting their neighbours for going for walk, going mad about people buying chocolate ffs. There are talks of phone tracking etc. Loads are pretty much willingly signing up for a totalitarian regime, ****ing idiots. And it's been what, 2 weeks?

How is this in anyway sustainable in the long term?

Covid19 would be a Communist's/Nazi's/etc's dream; a real totalitarian's charter - but it's all for our benefit so don't worry guys... People reporting on their neighbours is straight up from the East German playbook. I don't believe that anyone is an NPC but I must say that many Irish people have done a good impression of one the last decade at least.

One other thing; we know for a fact that people who have lost their jobs (of whom we have many now) are more likely to die than otherwise from heart and liver issues as well as suicide.

Widdensushi · 30-03-2020 08:24PM

RobertKK wrote: »

EU countries with higher populations than Ireland with less people in critical or serious condition.

Poland 3 (31 deaths) population around 38m
Romania 33 (52 deaths) population around 20m
Hungary 6 (15 deaths) population around 10m
Bulgaria 13 (8 deaths) population around 7m

Ireland is listed at 59 (54 deaths) population around 5m

There is this myth we are doing better than others but some of these countries had quarantine for 14 days for people coming from Italy and other affected areas.
Some of them had governments who stopped flights to hotspots and not wait for the airlines to do it.
Plus secured their borders to control it.

Our death toll is most likely higher with our smaller population due to the initial inaction.

don't believe the figures from other countries, I wonder how many of Ireland s fatalities were residents in nursing homes. Not to be discounted obviously but the fact that it got in to the nursing homes is skewing our figures.

ceadaoin. · 30-03-2020 08:24PM

Tell me how wrote: »

A - This may come as a surprise to you, but there is a worldwide pandemic ongoing.

B - What freedom do you think has been taken from you that you will not get back again?

A. Yeah no **** sherlock. I'm completely aware of what is going on. I already said I agree with social distancing measures

B.none.

I'm talking about the people calling for guards to use force on people out shopping, people to be tracked by their mobiles to make sure they are following the rules, army patrolling the streets, reporting their neighbours etc etc. You really dont see anything worrying about these possibilities?

Talisman · 30-03-2020 08:25PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

They haven't been clear at all on the ICU bed numbers available and that needs to improve.

When they were talking about it previously I think they meant covid ICU, or rather pseudo ICU beds that could be set up with the specific equipment to support covid patients.

I haven't been one to criticise the response generally, but communication on beds and need numbers has been poor and sometimes contradictory.

A relative of my wife is a senior member of staff in the Department of Health and they have incredible stories about the number games the HSE play. What follows is an example and not the actual numbers used but it gets the idea across.

During a flu season hospital A has to accommodate a given number of patients lets say 100 in ICU. The average stay in the ICU is 7 days. 7 x 100 is 700 ICU days. How many ICU beds does the hospital need? 700 / 365 = ~1.9 so at least 2 ICU beds, or 3 to be safe, 4 would be generous and allow a bed for non-influenza patients.

That is the type of calculation that has been used to determine why a public hospital in Letterkenny, Kilkenny or Tullamore would only need just 4 ICU beds. The calculations ignore the fact that the flu season isn't year round and other factors. Then to top it off there is another metric which will penalise hospital A for the ICU being over capacity for 25% of the time and under utilised for the other 75%.

This kind of game is why there were only 255 ICU beds in our public hospitals before this all kicked off.

No capacity in main Dublin hospitals for extra patients needing intensive care (Irish Times, February 27)

There were 255 ICU beds in the system last year, with 430 planned by 2031.

It doesn't say in the article but that came from a statement made by HSE national director Liam Woods earlier this year.

Updated projections on possible Covid-19 hospital admissions due (RTE, March 30)

Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Ms O'Connor said there were more than 2,000 beds available in the acute hospital system today and around 170 intensive care beds.

That's the same Anne O'Connor who along with Paul Reid gave the headline grabbing "around 500" figure at the weekend.

30-03-2020 08:25PM

jackboy wrote: »

Guards out pointing a scanner at cars but not stopping anyone. What is that about? It’s outside a town and definitely not a speed check.

I can only imagine its designed to scare people into compliance?

is_that_so · 30-03-2020 08:25PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

don't believe the figures from other countries, I wonder how many of Ireland s fatalities were residents in nursing homes. Not to be discounted obviously but the fact that it got in to the nursing homes is skewing our figures.

They are still deaths from COVID-19.

Coyote · 30-03-2020 08:25PM

Number updated to match today's report

I have added a Recovered column, this number is 80% of the infected 14+ days beforehand, this number does not included anyone needing hospital/ICU

No Change in number

Slow Change

Big Drop in numbers

again with all of this I'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths
if anyone has questions or thinks it could be changed with better data let me know

interesting visualization of covid19
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

ZX7R · 30-03-2020 08:25PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Those figures are not necessarily up to date. Its very unlikely poland has 3 patients in a serious condition out of 2000.

Germany's serious/critical stats were not updated for a long time and I thinkit said 2 in a serious condition when they had 10,000 cases. Its 2000 in a serious or critical condition now, took a long time to update

Ignore polish figures they are not recording deaths with known underlying issues.
Not recording deaths from institutions such as nursing homes ECT.
Only testing when infected are hospitalized.
Source my wife is polish and has family working in medical hospital.

BrianD3 · 30-03-2020 08:26PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

But the ICU numbers are incorrect. It’s not the current number. It’s the total who passed through the ICU. There must be a reason for it.

I agree that there has to be a reason. Could it be that they want to overstate the number of ICU cases so that people don't get complacent.

The journalists at the press conferences are failing here by not pinning them down on this:

"How many patients were in ICUs on Saturday"
"On Saturday there had been 81 admissions to ICU"
"But how many were in ICU on Saturday".

Also I'm wondering about the number of ICU beds, there are figures of of 350, 500 and 1200

Perhaps it is "too complicated" and us plebs would never understand, just as we'd never understand how to put on a face mask without infecting ourselves.

30-03-2020 08:26PM

poppers wrote: »

I think the high rate of infection in the health care workers is could be due to the fact that ireland is not used to seeing highly infectious diseases so people are not overly cautious when dealing with patients.
Even on the continent you get Rabies etc. Just an opinion

They indicated that many health worker infections have not come directly from their work. There are community infections, health workers who picked up infections through foreign travel, and infections spread through health workers socially. What proportion these account for wasn't said - probably would be difficult. Also, I would suspect that a fair proportion of nursing home infections may have come about via health workers.
This is not to suggest that there is any blame on the health workers whatsoever, btw.

bekker · 30-03-2020 08:27PM

STB. wrote: »

Serious lack of reagents. I gather that's why a lot of tests had to be dropped on the 24th. Had to be more pin point with them. That is the case as of the weekend where Senior HSE staff gave individual presentations to the press and said as much.

It also explains why ICU fugures more than tripled between the 20th and the 24th. ICU figures went to 88 with COVID19. Thats people turning up in a bad way, some of which were probably awaiting tests. They are the quite serious cases, requiring ventilation. Covid19 and normal ICU patients share overall ICU capacity.

And thats where the trouble lies. Only 500 ICU beds between public and private, at this time.

Are COVID-19 patients in same ICU environment as non-COVID-19 patients ?

Or in seperete ICU environment though in same hospital?

Tell me how · 30-03-2020 08:28PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

A. Yeah no **** sherlock. I'm completely aware of what is going on. I already said I agree with social distancing measures

B.none.

I'm talking about the people calling for guards to use force on people out shopping, people to be tracked by their mobiles to make sure they are following the rules, army patrolling the streets, reporting their neighbours etc etc. You really dont see anything worrying about these possibilities?

We've enough to be doing worrying about what is going on in reality instead of reacting to every comment as if it is government policy.

blackcard · 30-03-2020 08:28PM

RobertKK wrote: »

EU countries with higher populations than Ireland with less people in critical or serious condition.

Poland 3 (31 deaths) population around 38m
Romania 33 (52 deaths) population around 20m
Hungary 6 (15 deaths) population around 10m
Bulgaria 13 (8 deaths) population around 7m

Ireland is listed at 59 (54 deaths) population around 5m

There is this myth we are doing better than others but some of these countries had quarantine for 14 days for people coming from Italy and other affected areas.
Some of them had governments who stopped flights to hotspots and not wait for the airlines to do it.
Plus secured their borders to control it.

Our death toll is most likely higher with our smaller population due to the initial inaction.

When this is all finished, I am sure a study will be done to find out the actual death rates in various countries and the causes of the different death rates. China is showing a death rate of 2 per million which is obviously fictional. Where people had a serious underlying condition, Germany are not reporting the deaths as covid 19 deaths. You then have some of the eastern European countries whose statistics are either untruthful or their medical practices are just not capable of establishing rates of infection. Belarus has zero cases of infection???

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP