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Covid-19 & NZ

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  • 12-03-2020 10:11pm
    #1
    BlackEdelweiss
    Registered Users Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭


    What is the story with the Coronavirus in NZ? Any thinking on why they have so few cases and why they are not spreading? The NZ papers dont say much, what is the feeling down there?

    Ireland is going into lockdown.


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    #2
    Hemi
    Registered Users Posts: 6 ✭Hemi


    BlackEdelweiss wrote: »
    What is the story with the Coronavirus in NZ? Any thinking on why they have so few cases and why they are not spreading? The NZ papers dont say much, what is the feeling down there?

    Ireland is going into lockdown.

    They done the smart thing by blocking flights from China a few weeks ago. Now anyone flying into NZ from today will have to self isolate for 2 weeks. There are lots of events getting cancelled too. It is only a matter of time though before it starts getting bad here. I think we are up to 8 confirmed cases.


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    #3
    BlackEdelweiss
    Registered Users Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭BlackEdelweiss


    From what I can see and from talking to friends still living there they do not seem to be taking it seriously enough.
    People talking about having Paddy's Day parties, going to concerts, people sharing cocktails with straws and other crazy virus spreading activities.
    Look at the measures Ireland and the other European countries are implementing, they are not doing this for nothing.


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    #4
    Hemi
    Registered Users Posts: 6 ✭Hemi


    BlackEdelweiss wrote: »
    From what I can see and from talking to friends still living there they do not seem to be taking it seriously enough.
    People talking about having Paddy's Day parties, going to concerts, people sharing cocktails with straws and other crazy virus spreading activities.
    Look at the measures Ireland and the other European countries are implementing, they are not doing this for nothing.

    As of yesterday, they have banned mass gatherings of more than 500 people. The government were slow in this regard, but the whole thing is being taken serious. Ireland only started taking things serious when there was like what 20+ confirmed cases? New Zealand has taken this serious starting weeks ago when they started banning travellers from China.


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    #5
    BlackEdelweiss
    Registered Users Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭BlackEdelweiss


    Its not a competition, I'm only trying to give a bit of advice based on what we are seeing on this side of the world. I know how kiwis think, they have that "its different down here" attitude. Ireland is basically shut down and I think it is time for people everywhere to think for themselves now.

    https://youtu.be/nMY0-4p9P-M


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    #6
    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
    Registered Users Posts: 3,236 ✭✭✭Dr. Kenneth Noisewater


    The government here seem to be of the opinion that NZ is behind the curve. One of my colleagues kids has had his football practice cancelled, but on the other side of the coin, the schools are still open. A lot of the pubs for St Patrick's Day were empty apparently, and there's definitely less traffic and people around the city. Lots of people are working from home.

    I think it is being taken pretty seriously but they're just a little slow to go into complete lockdown. It'll happen here anyway, sooner or later. They seem equally (or more) worried about the prospect of a consequential recession. The fact that there have only been 20 cases recorded is probably a lot to do with it, but the spike is coming.


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    #7
    BlackEdelweiss
    Registered Users Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭BlackEdelweiss


    I cant see a way out of a recession for anyone. Hundreds of thousands have lost their jobs in Ireland this week alone with more to follow soon. There was talk of a financial freeze, i.e. loans, mortgages, rent, utilities for two months so people are not having to stress out about money as well. Unfortunately Leo did not address it in his speech last night.

    I would think the numbers are going to grow regularly in NZ now. If I can recommend one or two items to stock up on now they would be fairy liquid for handwashing and as much kitchen roll for hand drying as you can get. I bought the catering size blue rolls (x 12) and we are going through them. Hand washing is the major thing now and drying them properly is essential or your hands will crack open. Peoples hands are starting to get sore now from all the washing, so maybe stock up on hand cream or moisturiser as well.

    The reason schools are closed here is not to protect the kids from the virus but because they are transmitters of it so they will easily spread it on to their elderly grandparents or sick members of the family. If you have kids and elderly or sick family members now is the time to begin isolating yourselves.


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    #8
    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
    Registered Users Posts: 3,236 ✭✭✭Dr. Kenneth Noisewater


    BlackEdelweiss wrote: »
    The reason schools are closed here is not to protect the kids from the virus but because they are transmitters of it so they will easily spread it on to their elderly grandparents or sick members of the family. If you have kids and elderly or sick family members now is the time to begin isolating yourselves.

    They're extremely slow to look at closing the schools here. I said it to two kiwis yesterday and they both just looked at me a bit weird. One of them is my missus, she was just like "Why?!"

    Doesn't matter love. She'll be right.

    I should mention that the Education minister has mentioned the possible closure of schools, when the time comes. I just don't know what the waiting around is going to accomplish.


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    #9
    BlackEdelweiss
    Registered Users Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭BlackEdelweiss


    Ireland has 366 cases today. They are expecting that figure to reach 16,000 by the end of the month. That is 12 days!


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    #10
    Mrs OBumble
    Registered Users Posts: 25,676 ✭✭✭✭Mrs OBumble


    BlackEdelweiss wrote: »
    I know how kiwis think, they have that "its different down here" attitude.

    It actually is different: very similar size population, but spread out of a country with 3 times the landmass and 7 times the coastline. Students in NZ don't go home every weekend. Adults mostly don't to go visit mum and dad every week. There's simply less intergenerational mixing than there is in Ireland.

    The NZ authorities made a major strike against the disease by preventing the Chinese students from coming - knowing that once they didn't make the start of the year, they wouldn't be there all year.

    They're well aware of the benefits of closing germ-sharing plants (ie schools) to stop virus transmission, and have done so in the past for the flu and more recently for measles. But generally it's localised (eg all schools in an area) based on where community transmission of the disease is actually happening.


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    #11
    BlackEdelweiss
    Registered Users Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭BlackEdelweiss


    Mrs OBumble wrote: »
    It actually is different: very similar size population, but spread out of a country with 3 times the landmass and 7 times the coastline. Students in NZ don't go home every weekend. Adults mostly don't to go visit mum and dad every week. There's simply less intergenerational mixing than there is in Ireland.

    The NZ authorities made a major strike against the disease by preventing the Chinese students from coming - knowing that once they didn't make the start of the year, they wouldn't be there all year.

    They're well aware of the benefits of closing germ-sharing plants (ie schools) to stop virus transmission, and have done so in the past for the flu and more recently for measles. But generally it's localised (eg all schools in an area) based on where community transmission of the disease is actually happening.

    They are humans who breathe air and can contract viruses like the rest of us. They have a very high Asian population, many of whom went to China and came back before the lockdown. They have several cases now (which they Trumplike blamed the foreigners!!! Nice one Jacinda) and these will obviously have infected others. There is plenty of travel throughout NZ, look at the road out of Auckland, its not a quiet stretch or road by any means. I am sure internal flights are still connecting both islands.

    I was reading some comments relating to an article on Stuff where a woman in France said they should close their schools as the French had left it to late. She was attacked by the majority of commenters, most of them with the most ridicilous, ill informed comments I have read on the virus so far.

    I would love if I was wrong about this and NZ does not get hit as hard as everywhere else but at the same time, if I was there, I would rather be prepared for the worst and have over done it rather than wishing I had done more when I had time!


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    #12
    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
    Registered Users Posts: 3,236 ✭✭✭Dr. Kenneth Noisewater


    More or less a complete lockdown from tonight (Wednesday). Went from alert level 2 to alert 4 in 2 days. It seems like they've woken up to it all of a sudden, and fair play. Only things to be open will be supermarkets, dairies and pharmacies. No retail, no bars or restaurants (obviously) and not even takeaway food. Due to run for 4 weeks.

    It's going to be a weird stretch, but I'm delighted they've done it.


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    #13
    Cookie_Monster
    Registered Users Posts: 24,469 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    Yeah it needs to be done, but I almost fear the long term consequences more than than the virus itself, the impact this shutdown will have on business and the economy and hence people will be interesting to stay the least.

    Beers by Skype on friday already organised :pac:


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    #14
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,117 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Ardern's address was supposed to be very good. Not just the script but her delivery. Can anyone provide a link please?
    Was there for a month a year ago. Love the country.


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    #15
    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
    Registered Users Posts: 3,236 ✭✭✭Dr. Kenneth Noisewater


    Water John wrote: »
    Ardern's address was supposed to be very good. Not just the script but her delivery. Can anyone provide a link please?
    Was there for a month a year ago. Love the country.

    https://youtu.be/7dLn-8OuSqE

    These speeches seem to be her forté in fairness.


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    #16
    BlackEdelweiss
    Registered Users Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭BlackEdelweiss


    Any thoughts on why the numbers are so low in NZ? Do they reflect the actual numbers or have they got a selective set of criteria for testing or reporting? I read one article about a man who was too fragile to test which I found strange. The test is just a nasal and throat swab which did not seem too invasive. I also read that they do not consider a grouping of cases a cluster unless it has more than 10 people. In Ireland it is 3 or more.
    I am also suspicious of the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19. The death rate is something like 0.3% which is multiples lower than most of the rest of the world. Some countries are up at 15%. I read of another person who died of flu like symptoms but was not tested to see if it was Covid-19.
    I can see how the lockdown could have had an impact on the number of new cases but I dont see how it could affect the death rate in the country.
    My concern with the numbers down there is that it could give people the impression that the virus is not an issue in NZ and they will begin to resist the lockdown more and more and eventually push for it to be lifted. If they do this while not being accountable for the real numbers it could lead to a surge in infections and then it will be very hard to contain.
    Obviously I am not in the country so I dont get to see the full picture but from reading the papers etc it just seems a bit strange how it is going down there. Other countries who appear to be getting a grip on controlling the virus have rigorous testing regimes and strict lockdown / social distancing in force but NZ does not appear to have had much in place other than the lockdown.


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    #17
    Cookie_Monster
    Registered Users Posts: 24,469 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    remoteness to begin with meaning cases arriving initially were pretty low and the lockdown has stopped everything, its no less limited than any other country and we adopted it very early, NZ was on a similar curve to most places before then... Like elsewhere there is probably a level of virus going unnoticed and un-tested but I'd say one of the main reasons is the low pop density and large geographic area means transmission is very limited. The death rate is because the majority of cases are in the 20-29 age bracket so high chance of recovery compared to older people.

    General feeling is the country will get on top of it and go back to some level of normal but with the border staying closed until a vaccine is globally available.


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    #18
    BlackEdelweiss
    Registered Users Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭BlackEdelweiss


    I read that NZ was only doing an average of 6.5 tests a day up until march 15th so it is hard to say you were on the same curve as everyone else. The figures coming out now just don't add up, it all just looks too easy. 12 days after the lockdown the numbers of new cases conveniently drops into the 20's. No indication of existing community transmission or single, asymptomatic cases turning into clusters after the lockdown.
    It will be hard to continue with a locked down border given the reliance on tourism in NZ.


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    #19
    Cookie_Monster
    Registered Users Posts: 24,469 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases#lab
    where is that average coming from?, first tests were march 9th at 12, and increased after that. hardly a 6.5 average...

    Why don't the figures add up exactly? And if they don't why are there so many international papers reporting on how NZ is one of the ideal responses to date?

    Tourism will certainly take a massive hit, but agriculture is more important and exports are continuing so currency still coming into the country. Companies like Methanex still exporting too, the single biggest exporter.


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    #20
    BlackEdelweiss
    Registered Users Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭BlackEdelweiss


    The average comes from the date testing started on January 22.

    I still don't understand how the virus has not taken hold more in places like Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington. They are similar to any other city such as Dublin which is being hit hard. The Waikato has a similar number of cases to Auckland.

    I am starting to think that maybe the difference in Ireland and NZ could be the level of adherence to the lockdown. I don't know what it is like in NZ but Ireland does not seem to be getting it not enforcing it. I had to go out from diesel yesterday and decided to drive along the prom in salthill on the way home. I was astonished at the number of people walking, running and cycling along it. There were people swimming, sitting on the beach and doing any other activity you could normally do down there. People walking along eating ice creams! The only indication that something different was going on was that they have had to erect barriers and traffic cones along the full length of the prom from mutton Island to BlackRock to stop people driving there to exercise. They also had to block off the diving board.
    At one point I saw 4 different groups of people align, shoulder to shoulder. There was everything from single people to small groups and families with young kids and babies.

    I was gob smacked to say the least.

    Maybe NZ are getting it right, my assumptions were based on the Irish people actually taking this thing seriously and not acting like ****ing idiots. We are being told we might not get out of lockdown in may either and when I saw this yesterday I know why. We need a Spanish style lockdown for a good month and then we might actually get out again. With this lame, half hearted effort we could be locked in for months.


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    #21
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,117 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    We still don't know if, warmer weather would mean less infection. Jan/March would have been summer in NZ.


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    #22
    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
    Registered Users Posts: 3,236 ✭✭✭Dr. Kenneth Noisewater


    BlackEdelweiss wrote: »
    I am starting to think that maybe the difference in Ireland and NZ could be the level of adherence to the lockdown.

    I think you're right. I'm living just off Courtenay Place (which is basically Wellington CBD for the uninitiated) and to be fair, the Kiwis are taking it extremely seriously. The place is like a ghost town most of the time. You do of course have people walking around the place, but they are few and far between and everyone gives one another a wide berth. You will see lots of people walking and running on Oriental Parade (Wellington's Salthill Prom) but they aren't hanging around chatting.

    Anecdotally, my mother told me of a friend of her's back home that visited a garden centre on Easter Sunday, said it was fairly busy and didn't see the problem when my mother asked her wtf she was doing in a f*cking garden centre in the midst of a lockdown. Her and her 30 year old son!

    I'm Irish and proud, but none of this surprises me as much as it should. We always did and always will, as a nation, have a small portion of feckless eejits who just think, "arra it'll be grand". For that reason, I think Ireland has a fair way to go, I hope I'm wrong of course.


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