CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) Read OP

rob316 · 22-03-2020 09:50AM

Elessar wrote: »

The irishtimes has an interview with one of the first people who got Covid-19 here from a skiing trip to Italy. He had absolutely no symptoms at all. In fact nobody in the group of 6 had symptoms yet they all tested positive. They only got tested because a nurse with them insisted on testing herself and found she had it.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/wicklow-man-recovered-from-coronavirus-showed-no-symptoms-after-ski-trip-1.4209060

It means a lot of people could have it and not even realise. You might have already had it and gotten over it.

Yep some testing in italy found 9 out 10 showing no symptoms yet were positive. More testing and random testing is needed. However for now the goal is making sure our health service can cope.

umop-apisdn · 22-03-2020 09:51AM

Midfield Major wrote: »

Don’t wet the bed !

That 30% number is skewed as all early cases were hospitalised to isolate.

Unless you are an epidemiologist your thoughts re 90% are meaningless.

Also, there’s a massive backlog on testing so priority is being given to hospitalised patients, with a 12-24hr turnaround rate for those tests.
All the mild cases where people are self-isolating at home have barely even started being processed yet. I’ve heard of people waiting over 7 days just to be called for the test.

Away With The Fairies · 22-03-2020 09:52AM

Elessar wrote: »

The irishtimes has an interview with one of the first people who got Covid-19 here from a skiing trip to Italy. He had absolutely no symptoms at all. In fact nobody in the group of 6 had symptoms yet they all tested positive. They only got tested because a nurse with them insisted on testing herself and found she had it.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/wicklow-man-recovered-from-coronavirus-showed-no-symptoms-after-ski-trip-1.4209060

It means a lot of people could have it and not even realise. You might have already had it and gotten over it.

That is quite scary. I suppose it's still early days to realise if there's any long term damage even from those with no symptoms.

stephenjmcd · 22-03-2020 09:52AM

Elessar wrote: »

The irishtimes has an interview with one of the first people who got Covid-19 here from a skiing trip to Italy. He had absolutely no symptoms at all. In fact nobody in the group of 6 had symptoms yet they all tested positive. They only got tested because a nurse with them insisted on testing herself and found she had it.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/wicklow-man-recovered-from-coronavirus-showed-no-symptoms-after-ski-trip-1.4209060

It means a lot of people could have it and not even realise. You might have already had it and gotten over it.

Good few reports similar that people have been tested positive and absolutely no symptoms. This has probably been doing the rounds alot longer than anyone thinks and some people could be over it without even knowing

mick987 · 22-03-2020 09:52AM

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

Harris said they're ineffective. So yeah, I think I'll invest.

I think they are saying masks do not stop you from getting CoVid 19 but stops you from passing in on, so if everybody wore one we would stop the spread.

Nermal · 22-03-2020 09:52AM

RiseAbove4 wrote: »

So the maths on it is;

- 60% of us will get it (At least. I think it’ll be closer to 90%)

- And almost one third of those cases will end up in hospital?

Our hospital system will never cope with this!

No.

It varies by age group. Consider under 50s - 5% of those currently testing positive go to hospital. 6% of them end up in the ICU.

But hang on - only people with symptoms are getting tested! When you test widely, half the people who have it don’t have symptoms at all. Furthermore, the test is only positive if you currently have it. A significant fraction of the population may already unknowingly have had it!

The bottom line: among under 50s, closer to 1% of those who contract it end up in hospital. 0.06% of those who contract it end up in ICU.

stephenjmcd · 22-03-2020 09:56AM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

That is quite scary. I suppose it's still early days to realise if there's any long term damage even from those with no symptoms.

I wouldn't say its quite scary, goes to show theres potentially different strains or some people can fight it off which shows that we have some sort of anti body against it.

It'll be good for medical researchers but it's a comfort if anything else that even if some people have it they wont have the doomsday scenario they see on tv.

Assetbacked · 22-03-2020 09:56AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Good few reports similar that people have been tested positive and absolutely no symptoms. This has probably been doing the rounds alot longer than anyone thinks and some people could be over it without even knowing

Yeah, it is likely that many people have already gotten it and recovered from even the mild symptoms and will never go near a testing kit. Even with the official recorded cases, many have recovered so it is scare mongering to just list total cases, total hospitalisation and total deaths. It's not all negative anymore given the worldwide focus on containing and educating about it, hopefully we'll start to see people calming down and getting back to a revised version of normality very soon, with the focus switching to all of us ensuring the vulnerable categories of people are protected.

coastwatch · 22-03-2020 09:57AM

mick987 wrote: »

I think they are saying masks do not stop you from getting CoVid 19 but stops you from passing in on, so if everybody wore one we would stop the spread.

Far better to follow the social distancing and hand hygiene advice, and leave the supply of masks and gloves for frontline medical workers

Klonker · 22-03-2020 09:59AM

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

From what I've seen as well total passengers and crew numbered 3,711

So total on board: 3,711
Tested positive: 712
Deaths: 8
Critical condition: 15

An interesting one for sure

Plus you'd have to assume that a cruise would have an overall higher average age than the general population. I don't have any stats for that but I'd be surprised if it wasn't significantly higher.

Looking at Italy's death rate and average age of confirmed case, you'd have to assume loads of cases, I mean tens or even hundreds of thousands have been unreported.

mosii · 22-03-2020 10:00AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2FkuQZTYO4

7.7 Billion in the world,Billions of people are getting this Virus, 1% on average will die,this is unbelievable !!!

stephenjmcd · 22-03-2020 10:01AM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Yeah, it is likely that many people have already gotten it and recovered from even the mild symptoms and will never go near a testing kit. Even with the official recorded cases, many have recovered so it is scare mongering to just list total cases, total hospitalisation and total deaths. It's not all negative anymore given the worldwide focus on containing and educating about it, hopefully we'll start to see people calming down and getting back to a revised version of normality very soon, with the focus switching to all of us ensuring the vulnerable categories of people are protected.

Exactly, I'd be pretty sure a family member had it about 2 weeks ago, wasn't tested as they hadn't been abroad, but had most symptoms, cough, headache, chill, aches pains and fatigue etc. Literally stayed at home for 2 weeks, still has a bit of a cough now but nothing major. Nobody else in the house picked it up or showed any symptoms at least

c.p.w.g.w · 22-03-2020 10:01AM

If some of the reports are true re: Asymptomatic really scary. As my workplaces approach is, if you don't show symptoms your good to go unless you have recently travelled from a "hot spot"

DOCARCH · 22-03-2020 10:02AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Good few reports similar that people have been tested positive and absolutely no symptoms. This has probably been doing the rounds alot longer than anyone thinks and some people could be over it without even knowing

That's why social distancing is so important as some people do not realise they have the virus and are spreading it (possibly for weeks).

In relation to social distancing, I wouldn't be surprised to see public parks closed soon!

blade1 · 22-03-2020 10:02AM

mick987 wrote: »

I think they are saying masks do not stop you from getting CoVid 19 but stops you from passing in on, so if everybody wore one we would stop the spread.

A health expert said something like they may stop bigger droplets from spreading as far but not that effective for smaller droplets and aerosol.
She advised against using and saying people also use their hands too much to move the Mask because of irritation,sweat and movement of mask.

stephenjmcd · 22-03-2020 10:03AM

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

If some of the reports are true re: Asymptomatic really scary. As my workplaces approach is, if you don't show symptoms your good to go unless you have recently travelled from a "hot spot"

Well HSE advice now is if your coming back into the country to limit your movement for 2 weeks, no going into work etc so your work place isn't taking the measure seriously. Shocking to see some employers still bring reckless and not putting staff first

iguana · 22-03-2020 10:03AM

Just read this account of life under lockdown in China, far away from Hubei province.
https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3855647-A-View-From-Lockdown-in-China

Irish_peppa · 22-03-2020 10:03AM

So these people that tested postive like Idris Elba, once the 2 or 3 weeks incubation period are over are they ok for good? Is the virus lieing dormant in their body or have they been SUCCESFUL at fighting the virus or is it a waiting game to see when they get sick?

is_that_so · 22-03-2020 10:03AM

mosii wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2FkuQZTYO4

7.7 Billion in the world,Billions of people are getting this Virus, 1% on average will die,this is unbelievable !!!

OK, stop watching that guy! There have been 13,000 deaths. Flu kills millions annually and affects billions.

BluePlanet · 22-03-2020 10:04AM

IF we are going to follow the path of 'herd immunity' without a vaccine (I am not an advocate of this) then surely controlled exposure would be preferable to uncontrolled exposure (for obvious reasons).

So in that context has anybody seen any plans or back of the envelope musings on how that may be done?

Achasanai · 22-03-2020 10:04AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Exactly, I'd be pretty sure a family member had it about 2 weeks ago, wasn't tested as they hadn't been abroad, but had most symptoms, cough, headache, chill, aches pains and fatigue etc. Literally stayed at home for 2 weeks, still has a bit of a cough now but nothing major. Nobody else in the house picked it up or showed any symptoms at least

Did they try to self-isolate against their family members? I'd be worried if myself or my partner got it, as we are in a tiny one-bed apartment. Self-isolation would be essentially impossible so it would be a case of waiting for the other to get it.

mick987 · 22-03-2020 10:04AM

Midfield Major wrote: »

Don’t wet the bed !

That 30% number is skewed as all early cases were hospitalised to isolate.

Unless you are an epidemiologist your thoughts re 90% are meaningless.

Your Thoughts are just as meaningless as well

stephenjmcd · 22-03-2020 10:05AM

DOCARCH wrote: »

That's why social distancing is so important as some people do not realise they have the virus and are spreading it (possibly for weeks).

In relation to social distancing, I wouldn't be surprised to see public parks closed soon!

Yeah I agree, as good as it is to see people heading up to the likes of glendalough and going for walks etc while that's not advised against, Theres too many going up there to be implementing social distancing at an effective standard.

MipMap · 22-03-2020 10:07AM

Irish_peppa wrote: »

Wheres this 60% number coming from? I saw that before So ultimately over half of Dublin will have this at some stage:eek:

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/politics/coronavirus-ireland-taoiseach-leo-varadkar-21662400

is_that_so · 22-03-2020 10:07AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Exactly, I'd be pretty sure a family member had it about 2 weeks ago, wasn't tested as they hadn't been abroad, but had most symptoms, cough, headache, chill, aches pains and fatigue etc. Literally stayed at home for 2 weeks, still has a bit of a cough now but nothing major. Nobody else in the house picked it up or showed any symptoms at least

This was said at the outset of our testing that not everyone who comes in contact will be infected. Distance and hand hygiene are our best friends in these times.

mosii · 22-03-2020 10:07AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2FkuQZTYO4

And why are we been isolated,and the world economy in freefall, if this is only a flu?

pH · 22-03-2020 10:07AM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Yeah, it is likely that many people have already gotten it and recovered from even the mild symptoms and will never go near a testing kit. Even with the official recorded cases, many have recovered so it is scare mongering to just list total cases, total hospitalisation and total deaths. It's not all negative anymore given the worldwide focus on containing and educating about it, hopefully we'll start to see people calming down and getting back to a revised version of normality very soon, with the focus switching to all of us ensuring the vulnerable categories of people are protected.

There is ZERO chance that this disease has infected 'many people' in Ireland. We have had 785 confirmed cases. The real figure is likely to be 5x to 10x this number, based on studies done in other countries. However because Ireland is testing everyone who calls and reports symptoms, we're far more likely to be at the 5x end than the 10x end.

That means the real number is probably 'around' 4,000, which in the context of a population of 5,000,000 is 0.08%

stephenjmcd · 22-03-2020 10:08AM

Achasanai wrote: »

Did they try to self-isolate against their family members? I'd be worried if myself or my partner got it, as we are in a tiny one-bed apartment. Self-isolation would be essentially impossible so it would be a case of waiting for the other to get it.

We've been more or less self isolating and practising social distancing anyway since the beginning here, working from home for the last while and generally go for a walk in the evenings when theres less people around.

c.p.w.g.w · 22-03-2020 10:08AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well HSE advice now is if your coming back into the country to limit your movement for 2 weeks, no going into work etc so your work place isn't taking the measure seriously. Shocking to see some employers still bring reckless and not putting staff first

They have introduced many other measures, but it's all window dressing as far as i can see. Just to be seen to being proactive...

Sure they aren't paying lads who are currently self-isolating after coming home from Cheltenham...

I know of at least 1 lad who recently travelled and is still working, as he has denied he travelled and another who a family member is a positive for CoVid-19 but claims his not seen that family member for months...Thankfully nether on my shift/work area

Gynoid · 22-03-2020 10:08AM

is_that_so wrote: »

OK, stop watching that guy! There have been 13,000 deaths. Flu kills millions annually and affects billions.

No it doesn't. It kills 250,000 - 500,000 annually, globally. It does not infect billions either.
PS I don't know what is in that video, I have not looked.

CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) Read OP