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CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) *Read OP*

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  • #1442
    eldamo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,134 ✭✭✭eldamo


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    They are not recording deaths as the virus when there are comorbidities
    i thought the french were better at that, if you die of a heart attack at 35 it's natural causes.


    i have seen one italian doctor imply this about germany, and there are two other articles questioning it but they are behind a paywall.


    maybe germany are just aggressively testing and so getting a more genuine idea of how many cases there are in the country


    apparently they opened up capacity to test 12k a day from very early on.


    all just speculation without any confirmation,


    i just think it would be daft of them to try to hide deaths when all of their neighboring countries were having piles of them...


  • #1443
    Akrasia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,230 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    deisedevil wrote: »
    yes, the restricted criteria thing is getting thrown around the whole time. It's ridiculous that at this stage they are refusing to test people because they weren't in "affected region", Ireland is an affected region and community transmission is rampant at this stage. Also, depending on who you get on the phone, you may or may not be tested. There's no consistency at all. It's extremely unclear. For the sake of those trying to manage patients and those displaying symptoms there badly needs to be some clarity around testing asap.

    I know someone in ICU who was saying that they can start to see it ramping up now and everyone in there has the feeling that this is about to really kick off.
    They're doing what every health service does when they have a limited resource, they're triaging. They can't magic tests out of thin air, there is a global shortage of the reagents required for testing and we have limited lab space as well as limited personell available to make house calls to distribute the swabs

    They're not refusing to do something out of stubborness, they're trying their best

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • #1444
    sadie1502
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 666 ✭✭✭sadie1502


    Boggles wrote: »
    For them, yes they are definitely closing down, you can probably multiple that 20 by 5 from what else I have been hearing.

    It's being replicated up and down the country.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0318/1123856-brown-thomas-arnotts/

    As for the governance issuing a "lockdown" they are relying on the HSE whose data is at least 4-6 days behind.

    Just like Paddys Day, people are making the decisions before the government.

    We are being told we will have 14,750 confirmed cases in the next 12 odd days.

    Who said that?


  • #1445
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »
    What’s the point of posts like this? We are in a very weird, unprecedented situation. People’s minds will shift as it develops.

    Poster is a wum in my opinion.

    There are a few on this and previous threads just posting stuff to get a rise.


  • #1446
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    DubInMeath wrote: »
    Poster is a wum in my opinion.

    Even less point in pointing out inconsistencies then!


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  • #1447
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Being out and about in a country that mandates masks in public makes me wonder why it isn't that way everywhere. Was it not the case that they don't really stop you getting it but do help you stop spreading it?

    Seems like a lot of the "masks are pointless" is coming from the West while the countries with experience of SARS etc. say they're important. My breath is definitely not travelling as far when I wear one.


  • #1448
    Theboinkmaster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,052 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    PowerToWait wrote: »
    With respect to your optimism, this is just crazy talk. If people start thinking like this, at such an early stage of this emergency, this country will be devastated.

    We need to up our vigilance, be ever more careful, unlearn old habits and adopt new covid era routines and habits.

    This thing can only be defeated by massive changes in how we function / interact as a society.

    Nobody likes it but I fear many are in denial or don't quite understand.

    how long do you think this will last? I'm hoping 6-8 weeks...


  • #1449
    davedanon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,062 ✭✭✭davedanon


    weldoninhio wrote: »
    No, he was telling us what we’d already heard. There was nothing new in what he told us.

    That'll be why he received praise across the world, and why UK people online were asking where they could get hold of the full video, because they wanted to see what a real statesman sounds like, as opposed to the pathetic buffoon 'leading' their own country....


  • #1450
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,429 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    sadie1502 wrote: »
    Who said that?

    Seriously? :confused:


  • #1451
    davedanon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,062 ✭✭✭davedanon


    Amazing how a species-threatening virus still isn't enough to knock some people off their hobbyhorses, isn't it?


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  • #1452
    deisedevil
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,252 ✭✭✭deisedevil


    Akrasia wrote: »
    They're doing what every health service does when they have a limited resource, they're triaging. They can't magic tests out of thin air, there is a global shortage of the reagents required for testing and we have limited lab space as well as limited personell available to make house calls to distribute the swabs

    They're not refusing to do something out of stubborness, they're trying their best

    I know, and I said that. But that doesn't mean the numbers are right. The numbers are bound to be far far worse than what we have seen. There are many people that breath a sigh of relief every night at our figures and are starting to feel like this was blown out of proportion.

    Also, how have other countries been aggressively testing early on? Look at the countries managing this the best. They all were testing large numbers. So what will that mean for us? We have healthcare workers who are having to continue to go to work despite the fact that they should be getting tested and a result back early so that they don't pass it on to the sick and elderly that they look after.


  • #1453
    BluePlanet
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,444 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    SuspectZero wrote: »
    Question someone might be able to shed some light on. There has been a lot of talk about asypmtomatic carriers and I believe the main form of transmission is through aerosol(coughing, sneezing etc) but I've also been reading from legitimate Government and medical sources that exposure requires 10 minutes within 6 feet radius of a coughing infected person to transmit(much like the flu). There is much lower risk of getting it through contact of surfaces and touch so how exactly are asymptomatic people transmitting the virus(when they dont have symptoms like coughing) and spreading the virus in the air? Would it be safe to assume that infection rates would be much lower in asymptomatic people?

    Say the average infection rate of each carrier is 3.5 people, Is it possible that symptomatic people could be responsible for a much higher rate like 6.2 and asymptomatic people with a much lower rate like .8 as an example to illustrate the point?
    Viral shedding.
    The science is still being determined.
    But there are some studies that indicate the most viral shedding occurs in the first week.
    There's a new study of nine people who contracted the virus in Germany suggests that people are mainly contagious before they have symptoms and in the first week of the disease.
    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-most-contagious-before-during-first-week-symptoms


  • #1454
    hetuzozaho
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,840 ✭✭✭hetuzozaho


    Boggles wrote: »
    For them, yes they are definitely closing down, you can probably multiple that 20 by 5 from what else I have been hearing.

    It's being replicated up and down the country.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0318/1123856-brown-thomas-arnotts/

    As for the governance issuing a "lockdown" they are relying on the HSE whose data is at least 4-6 days behind.

    Just like Paddys Day, people are making the decisions before the government.

    We are being told we will have 14,750 confirmed cases in the next 12 odd days.

    Ha fair enough - I guess these different definitions of "lockdown" don't help! I thought you felt something would be announced this week across the board as opposed to shops deciding to shut up shop for a bit.


  • #1455
    Loughc
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 26,064 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    PowerToWait wrote: »
    With respect to your optimism, this is just crazy talk. If people start thinking like this, at such an early stage of this emergency, this country will be devastated.

    We need to up our vigilance, be ever more careful, unlearn old habits and adopt new covid era routines and habits.

    This thing can only be defeated by massive changes in how we function / interact as a society.

    Nobody likes it but I fear many are in denial or don't quite understand.

    I respectfully disagree, at the recent growth rates we will never reach the earlier predicted 15,000 cases by the end of the month, we will some in significantly smaller than that.

    As a nation we are taking social distancing seriously and hopefully learning from Italy's mistakes. If the growth of new cases goes backwards in the next week or so we will have it squashed in no time.

    I think we had the added benefit of learning from Italy and China and now quicker tests on the market to really contain this.


  • #1456
    deisedevil
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,252 ✭✭✭deisedevil


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Being out and about in a country that mandates masks in public makes me wonder why it isn't that way everywhere. Was it not the case that they don't really stop you getting it but do help you stop spreading it?

    Seems like a lot of the "masks are pointless" is coming from the West while the countries with experience of SARS etc. say they're important. My breath is definitely not travelling as far when I wear one.

    For most masks they don't trap the virus. The virus blows straight through the pores of the mask and out into the air. It doesn't get trapped in the mask at all.


  • #1457
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Here’s the post about sleep. It’s very informative and I’d highly recommend watching the link.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112531214&postcount=5521
    As the chances are ever increasing by the day that we will have many cases in Ireland I think it's very important to note we must increase our ability to fight off this disease.
    In other words we must make sure our immune systems are working optimally.

    Dr Seheult from MedCram has a very easy and straightforward suggestion

    https://youtu.be/qqZYEgREuZ8


  • #1458
    TheAsYLuMkeY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 634 ✭✭✭TheAsYLuMkeY


    I have a question if any close to the drinks industry is on here or if you know anyone.

    Hand sanitiser is hard to get and pricey now because of this.

    Basically, what is needed is above 60% proof for the sanitiser.

    Ethanol is produced by distillation and can be achieved with sugar and yeast alone.

    Now our drinks industry is shut down, can all the distilling houses in Ireland not be tasked With production of high proof ethanol for use in sanitisers?

    Or maybe it is already happening.


  • #1459
    wellwhynot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 280 ✭✭wellwhynot


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Being out and about in a country that mandates masks in public makes me wonder why it isn't that way everywhere. Was it not the case that they don't really stop you getting it but do help you stop spreading it?

    Seems like a lot of the "masks are pointless" is coming from the West while the countries with experience of SARS etc. say they're important. My breath is definitely not travelling as far when I wear one.


    They do help if worn correctly. I think the masks are pointless message is being pursued as there a massive shortage for even health professionals in the West. I tried to buy some from a local hardware weeks ago. The owner told me that all the masks and hand sanitizer had been bought up weeks ago by the Chinese who sent it home.


  • #1460
    weldoninhio
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,311 ✭✭✭✭weldoninhio


    davedanon wrote: »
    That'll be why he received praise across the world, and why UK people online were asking where they could get hold of the full video, because they wanted to see what a real statesman sounds like, as opposed to the pathetic buffoon 'leading' their own country....

    Ah praise. Thats what Leo's talking about.

    Explain to me what he said that we didn't already know?? Even 1 thing.


  • #1461
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/19/coronavirus-update-live-news-who-covid19-cases-outbreak-us-states-uk-school-closures-australia-europe-eu-africa-asia-latest-updates#block-5e73375e8f088d7575596416

    Ireland’s parliament, Dáil Éireann, is due to pass emergency laws on Thursday to allow authorities to impose lockdown by decree and to forcibly detain people who refused to self-isolate.


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  • #1462
    SuspectZero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 208 ✭✭SuspectZero


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Being out and about in a country that mandates masks in public makes me wonder why it isn't that way everywhere. Was it not the case that they don't really stop you getting it but do help you stop spreading it?

    Seems like a lot of the "masks are pointless" is coming from the West while the countries with experience of SARS etc. say they're important. My breath is definitely not travelling as far when I wear one.

    I was watching the Joe Rogan odcast with Micheal Osterholm(one of the top disease control scientists in the world) and he said masks undoubtably help in both prevention and stopping you from infecting others especially the builders dust masks. More research on it and it supposedly decreases the risk by fivefold in transmission rates.


  • #1463
    Achasanai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 730 ✭✭✭Achasanai


    PowerToWait wrote: »
    With respect to your optimism, this is just crazy talk. If people start thinking like this, at such an early stage of this emergency, this country will be devastated.

    We need to up our vigilance, be ever more careful, unlearn old habits and adopt new covid era routines and habits.

    This thing can only be defeated by massive changes in how we function / interact as a society.

    Nobody likes it but I fear many are in denial or don't quite understand.


    I think the increase in figures - because they will increase - will remind everyone of the importance of social distancing. Increased testing leads to better preventative measures and a lower ICU/death rate (at least that's my understanding of it) which is what we're hoping for (along with preventing a surge on the health service). So more people aware that they have it, will prevent it from being spread around, and infecting more people who may end up in ICU/dead.


  • #1464
    Ulysses Gaze
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,570 ✭✭✭Ulysses Gaze


    Theboinkmaster wrote: »
    how long do you think this will last? I'm hoping 6-8 weeks...

    If we believe what's coming out of the UK? 10-12 weeks until the peak.


  • #1465
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Very interesting paper describing the various timings of the disease. Very easy to see the lag effect that can cause complacencies and over optimistic death ratios.
      [*]Mean onset symptoms ~ 5 days
      [*]Mean onset to death ~ 20 days


      506187.png

      https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/210a/892deb1c61577f6fba58505fd65356ce6636.pdf?_ga=2.73970898.1111571470.1584609703-484965398.1584609703


    • #1466
      davedanon
      Closed Accounts Posts: 4,062 ✭✭✭davedanon


      Boggles wrote: »
      Just like Paddys Day, people are making the decisions before the government.

      What people, and what decisions?


    • #1467
      [Deleted User]
      Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


      I think many distilleries have started production of it. Brew dog is one I know of.


    • #1468
      RandomName2
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,575 ✭✭✭RandomName2


      Deleted User wrote: »
      Being out and about in a country that mandates masks in public makes me wonder why it isn't that way everywhere. Was it not the case that they don't really stop you getting it but do help you stop spreading it?

      Seems like a lot of the "masks are pointless" is coming from the West while the countries with experience of SARS etc. say they're important. My breath is definitely not travelling as far when I wear one.

      I think the motivation is mainly due to a lack of available masks and prioritization by medical services.

      I am pretty sure 'masks do not help' is a lie, or at least a statement without sufficient evidence to support it.

      Of course some types of masks are less useful than lip balm.


    • #1469
      Jimmy Garlic
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,348 ✭✭✭Jimmy Garlic


      PowerToWait wrote: »
      With respect to your optimism, this is just crazy talk. If people start thinking like this, at such an early stage of this emergency, this country will be devastated.

      We need to up our vigilance, be ever more careful, unlearn old habits and adopt new covid era routines and habits.

      This thing can only be defeated by massive changes in how we function / interact as a society.

      Nobody likes it but I fear many are in denial or don't quite understand.

      I fear many not "in denial" had nothing to do in the first place or are guaranteed no financial burden as a result of any of thi. The hardship that will be caused for most people as the economy is allowed to crumble before our very eyes, hundreds of thousands of jobs are lost and whole sectors are wiped out will be far more than actually catching the virus, which is a minor illness for the vast majority who catch it.


    • #1470
      [Deleted User]
      Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


      SuspectZero wrote: »
      Question someone might be able to shed some light on.

      Not sure if it entirely answers what you asked but if you watch this video from about 14:30 to 20:08 it should answer some of what you asked.

      There is a timestamped list of what the Doctor in the video answers too:
      00:33 - What's the deal with NSAIDS? Should we avoid things like ibuprofen now to be safe?
      01:47 - Can you do things outside in suburban areas like walk your dog or play basketball? Can kids play together outside?
      04:09 - Should you refrain from having people over to your house?
      05:37 - How do you practice appropriate social distancing in places like grocery stores and pharmacies?
      06:26 - Is it OK to volunteer at places like food banks if you have no symptoms and use a mask?
      06:47 - Should I cancel all non-critical doctor appointments?
      07:34 - Should student healthcare workers returning from spring break continue to work clinical rotations?
      08:02 - How can families of healthcare workers support them while still helping contain the virus?
      08:57 - Should we bring elderly parents home from care facilities?
      10:07 - Is it safer to have food delivered or to pick it up?
      11:32 - What's with all the different tests?
      12:29 - Do we know the rate of false negatives for tests?
      13:15 - Will tests show if you HAD it? Or just if you HAVE it?
      14:07 - How can we keep track of who has and hasn't had it?
      14:32 - Isn't it dangerous to forgo testing for asymptomatic patients?
      15:41 - If I have symptoms, what should I do?
      16:35 - Can it be spread through the air?
      18:09 - How long does it stay on objects?
      18:56 - How likely is asymptomatic transmission?
      19:35 - How long does someone shed virus? At what point are they no longer infectious?
      20:08 - I know pets can't get it, but can you pick it up by petting an animal that was touched by a contagious person?
      20:31 - Does infection confer immunity? Is reinfection likely?
      21:00 - What about kids with underlying health conditions?
      22:16 - What is the level of concern for people taking immunosuppressants?
      22:53 - What is the process for getting a vaccine to market?
      23:14 - What are the odds of it becoming a recurrent disease?
      24:42 - Could it lie dormant like HIV?
      25:22 - What are the chances we'll see multiple strains?
      25:39 - Why is the fatality rate for this virus higher than other coronaviruses?
      26:33 - Why is the fatality rate so high in Italy?
      27:22 - Are we more likely to be like Italy or South Korea?
      28:17 - Why aren't we mobilizing more resources to handle this?
      28:55 - Why is the response different than to H1N1?
      29:52 - Is it irresponsible to project numbers of dead with so little testing information?
      31:00 - Any tips for caring for the sick at home?
      31:36 - How important is investment in public health infrastructure to deal with this kind of thing in the future?


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    • #1471
      Gretas Gonna Get Ya!
      Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


      is_that_so wrote: »
      Just found this on an Italian town, where they've stopped the spread. The message is test test, test.

      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19

      It says that each test swab costs 15 euro...

      15 * roughly 5 million people = 75 million euro to test everyone in the country.

      That's a lot money obviously, but it might actually be doable if we could get our hands on that many test kits.

      Or perhaps we could re-purpose one of the big pharmaceutical plants on the island, and turn it into a giant Covid 19 test swab production facility temporarily?

      I've actually always thought asymptomatics were responsible for spreading this thing... that is the only thing that really explains the the rapid infection rate. If you had a virus that pretty much made anyone who got it severely sick, like ebola etc... this is much easier to identify and isolate cases and stop the rapid spread.


    This discussion has been closed.
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