CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) Read OP

Monkeynut · 19-03-2020 02:15AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Lockdowns in Italy AREN'T WORKING!!!
Lockdowns in Spain AREN'T WORKING!!!

All they are doing is crashing the economies, people are gonna get sick anyway, may as well try the Dutch approach to herd immunity.

Google wrote:

On 9 March 2020, the government of Italy under Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte imposed a national quarantine

If it takes 14 days for the virus to spread through households. Its been 9 days excluding the 1 1/4 hours of today into the lockdown.
Wait another 4-8 days then you can put into caps that if its not working.

joeguevara · 19-03-2020 02:15AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Would many of the Cheltenham brigade been in Dublin city centre though? They were probably all gargled out and headed straight home.

I was in the city centre on Friday afternoon and footfall was way down (and virtually no tourists in the city). The buses were quiet that day too....no way were they full.

It was in response that we were in pretty much lockdown then and Cheltenham wouldn’t have made much difference. I pointed out that that night was busiest in Dublin. These infections would just be showing now according to indicators.

pH · 19-03-2020 02:18AM

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

Its about flattening the curve Yo. At least that's what they tell us. If we go the herd route we'll do an Italy and overwhelm the health service.

The scary thing is that the real number of cases in Italy is probably about 400,000.

To get to herd immunity they need 40,000,000 people infected and recovered, so they're only 1% of the way there. Things would need to get 100x worse.

tuxy · 19-03-2020 02:18AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Lockdowns in Italy AREN'T WORKING!!!
Lockdowns in Spain AREN'T WORKING!!!

Can you do into detail on this?
I understand that the lock downs were too late to be optimal.
The lock downs are to slow infection not now but in the coming weeks.
How do you know it will not work?

kowloon · 19-03-2020 02:22AM

Sober Crappy Chemis · 19-03-2020 02:25AM

The cold hard reality is that predictions and therefore major decisions, are based on mathematical models taking into account not only exponents and logarithms, but also demographics and health predictors.

It's complicated. Very complicated.

I'm being lighthearted in this thread but I am anxious and never guilty of scaremongering.

pH · 19-03-2020 02:26AM

tuxy wrote: »

Can you do into detail on this?
I understand that the lock downs were too late to be optimal.
The lock downs are to slow infection not now but in the coming weeks.
How do you know it will not work?

Well imagine you have 100,000 infected people randomly mixed throughout a population, and you lock them in households for 3 weeks. The chances are very high that 3 weeks locked in with someone in the same house will result in the whole household becoming infected.

So even after lockdown you're still going to double the number of infected at least (average Italian household size 2.58)

And many of these people need to visit shops every day, some are essential workers like drivers/police/supermarket staff, so even with the tightest lockdown possible there is still a small spread going on.

But there is strong evidence that lockdown will eventually halt the spread of the disease, but there is still some 'inter-household' spread to get through first.

Strazdas · 19-03-2020 02:27AM

joeguevara wrote: »

It was in response that we were in pretty much lockdown then and Cheltenham wouldn’t have made much difference. I pointed out that that night was busiest in Dublin. These infections would just be showing now according to indicators.

Yes, I think the Cheltenham people may have infected some of their own families and that's about it.

As for the Dublin city revelers, we'll just have to hope they haven't done too much to bump up the figures.

codie · 19-03-2020 02:29AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Should be pointed out that by the time the Cheltenham crowd returned on Friday night, the country was already moving into partial lockdown. Footfall on the streets was already well down and social distancing coming in, so it's debatable what impact they had when they got back (apart from infecting their own families perhaps).

Are you really that nieve. Cheltenham winner for a trainer equals big party ,big homecoming for the horse. A group of lads flying in from Cheltenham races on a Friday night, do you really think they are thinking I must go straight home. DRINK as FR jack says.

dwayneshintzy · 19-03-2020 02:31AM

tuxy wrote: »

Can you do into detail on this?
I understand that the lock downs were too late to be optimal.
The lock downs are to slow infection not now but in the coming weeks.
How do you know it will not work?

I'd also love to hear what this is being based on.

Has a lockdown been effective in Asian countries? Maybe they locked down at a much earlier stage, but it certainly seems to have been effective.

nocoverart · 19-03-2020 02:34AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Lockdowns in Italy AREN'T WORKING!!!
Lockdowns in Spain AREN'T WORKING!!!

All they are doing is crashing the economies, people are gonna get sick anyway, may as well try the Dutch approach to herd immunity.

It’s these kind of sh1t posts that increases anxiety in certain people. Think there’s posters that get off on that crap. “Scaremongering with the bois”

tuxy · 19-03-2020 02:35AM

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

I'd also love to hear what this is being based on.

Has a lockdown been effective in Asian countries? Maybe they locked down at a much earlier stage, but it certainly seems to have been effective.

It would seem to have been effective in China even when they were slow to implement it.

kyote00 · 19-03-2020 02:41AM

thats just ****ing nonsense again....
here is flight rader from a few hours ago

The one flight is bringing the numpies that got stuck in Lanzerotte home....

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

Matt Cooper spent 5 minutes tonight tying Pearse Doherty in knots about the north not being in line with the south and that the nordies could spread the disease all over the Republic. Not one single mention from him or anyone else in the media about the thousands of people coming through the airport every day from all over the World.

rob316 · 19-03-2020 02:47AM

The Dutch model is just like ours, flattening the curve.

Of course if we banned any travel between us and Italy a month ago we wouldn't be in this mess. There's going to be some serious questions asked about this open borders EU crack after this.

kowloon · 19-03-2020 02:54AM

rob316 wrote: »

The Dutch model is just like ours, flattening the curve.

Of course if we banned any travel between us and Italy a month ago we wouldn't be in this mess. There's going to be some serious questions asked about this open borders EU crack after this.

We need to have closed, guarded borders at county level and barbed wire around the ring of the M50 from now on.

Cantona's Collars · 19-03-2020 02:54AM

Foreigners on holiday in Spain told to leave by Tuesday as all the hotels are closing.

V8 Interceptor · 19-03-2020 02:55AM

kyote00 wrote: »

thats just ****ing nonsense again.

How many flights landed in Dublin airport yesterday?

tuxy · 19-03-2020 02:56AM

rob316 wrote: »

The Dutch model is just like ours, flattening the curve.

Of course if we banned any travel between us and Italy a month ago we wouldn't be in this mess. There's going to be some serious questions asked about this open borders EU crack after this.

The decision to continue to allow flights from Italy was an Irish decision not an EU one.
We could have legally blocked flights from other EU regions in the interest of national safety if our government had wished to do so.

kowloon · 19-03-2020 02:56AM

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Foreigners on holiday in Spain told to leave by Tuesday as all the hotels are closing.

Surprised there's many left that haven't already cleared out.

Strazdas · 19-03-2020 02:56AM

rob316 wrote: »

The Dutch model is just like ours, flattening the curve.

Of course if we banned any travel between us and Italy a month ago we wouldn't be in this mess. There's going to be some serious questions asked about this open borders EU crack after this.

Flying to another country on holidays or for a short trip has absolutely nothing to do with EU law.

kyote00 · 19-03-2020 02:57AM

It seems like we would have had to ban all traffic in and out of the country in December to be sure....cases were popping up in UK, Holland, Germany in early Jan

source: https://nextstrain.org/ncov

rob316 wrote: »

The Dutch model is just like ours, flattening the curve.

Of course if we banned any travel between us and Italy a month ago we wouldn't be in this mess. There's going to be some serious questions asked about this open borders EU crack after this.

V8 Interceptor · 19-03-2020 02:57AM

kowloon wrote: »

We need to have closed, guarded borders at county level and barbed wire around the ring of the M50 from now on.

WTF you waffling about?

jobeenfitz · 19-03-2020 02:57AM

pH wrote: »

Well imagine you have 100,000 infected people randomly mixed throughout a population, and you lock them in households for 3 weeks. The chances are very high that 3 weeks locked in with someone in the same house will result in the whole household becoming infected.

So even after lockdown you're still going to double the number of infected at least (average Italian household size 2.58)

And many of these people need to visit shops every day, some are essential workers like drivers/police/supermarket staff, so even with the tightest lockdown possible there is still a small spread going on.

But there is strong evidence that lockdown will eventually halt the spread of the disease, but there is still some 'inter-household' spread to get through first.

If everyone's in lockdown, then we should know most of the people or homes wit virus and those without at end of 14 days.? Then the ones with virus could stay in lockdown and obviously the very sick would go to hospital.

tuxy · 19-03-2020 02:58AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Flying to another country on holidays or for a short trip has absolutely nothing to do with EU law.

Correct
It's disgusting how people are using this crisis to push their agenda.

V8 Interceptor · 19-03-2020 02:58AM

tuxy wrote: »

The decision to continue to allow flights from Italy was an Irish decision not an EU one. We could have legally blocked flights from other EU regions in the interest of national safety if our government had wished to do so.

Why do you think our Government did absolutely nothing in this regard?

Cantona's Collars · 19-03-2020 02:59AM

kowloon wrote: »

Surprised there's many left that haven't already cleared out.

Still a load of Brits. At least the Irish government are helping get Irish holiday makers home. There was an English guy on Sky news who said it was a nightmare but eventually got flights sorted back to England.

V8 Interceptor · 19-03-2020 02:59AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Flying to another country on holidays or for a short trip has absolutely nothing to do with EU law.

But the EU open borders is the reason the Government gave for not stopping flights.

jobeenfitz · 19-03-2020 02:59AM

kowloon wrote: »

Surprised there's many left that haven't already cleared out.

Im still in Spain. Can't afford rent in Ireland so staying put.

V8 Interceptor · 19-03-2020 03:00AM

tuxy wrote: »

Correct
It's disgusting how people are using this crisis to push their agenda.

What???

Don't you agree our Government not stopping flights from places like Italy a month ago was a monumental cock up?

kowloon · 19-03-2020 03:00AM

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

WTF you waffling about?

It was a response to someone blaming open borders within the EU.

CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) Read OP