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CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭dummy_crusher


    China locked down the city and province with the most cases on the 23rd of February. Their new homegrown daily case number is now in single figures.

    They are now getting all their factories back to full production practically everywhere.

    What do you think is likely to happen when they 'return to normal'?
    Once interventions are relaxed (in the example in Figure 3, from September onwards), infections begin
    to rise, resulting in a predicted peak epidemic later in the year. The more successful a strategy is at
    temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination,
    due to lesser build-up of herd immunity.


    Source
    It is far more likely that an antiviral drug will be developed or that an existing drug will be proven to work against the virus long before then.

    I sincerely hope this is the case and manufacturing will be able to keep up with demand.

    Where did you get this 18 month figure from ? The vaccine ?

    That report suggests an ON/OFF trigger for suppression techniques over a 2 year period. I highly suggest reading it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭solidasarock


    I'm just sayin...where are our songs?

    Get your act together Bono :pac:

    U2: CaronaMania

    Infectious Songs for a Viral era


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    greenpilot wrote: »
    Agreed. Couldn't stand the man, but my opinion of him has changed dramatically. My wife and I watched it first just to suss it out. We then sat 3 of our 4 kids down to watch it (17, 14, 12 years of age) and it really both drove home the seriousness of the situation but also gave them both reassurance that there was at least someone at the helm of this ship, and an explanation as to why we were keeping them from seeing their friends and their grandmother. The eldest cried. She's a bit over dramatic anyway, the middle girl turned off her phone and begun to help her mum around the house and the young fellow looked at me and said, "I suppose we all have to step up yo the plate, like during the war. He went upstairs, put on his army cammo gear and went out to split logs for the fire
    I think the speech hit the nail on the head.

    I watched it with my wife and 3 young boys (oldest is 11) and they particularly perked up when he told children to think about their parents. At the end I said “superb, we are in good hands everybody” and I really believe it. Regardless of how bad this gets, I can’t imagine a much better response from the people leading us right now. We are following what WHO and De Aylward said from the start and part of that was to educate your population and bring them with you. Get them on board, get them to be your feet on the ground. If we all comply and come together we stand a much better chance of getting through this. I really can’t write enough on why they are doing such a good job for me....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,998 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    Back to work tonight myself...

    Company have implemented measures of social distancing...takes an hour for everyone to get into the factory...but while people are waiting to get in, they are huddled together outside:(

    But we need to wear ear protection on the floor, so very hard to hear, so people are within a few CM's while talking/communicating on the floor...

    I'm currently isolating myself* from the outside world as it is as a precaution, so my only interactions are going to be work and the shops(once a week)

    *Not isolating due to contact/symptoms but just to reduce my social contact


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Sardonicat wrote: »
    They were as helpful as they could be as a matter of fact. The person went off looking for the info. She just called me back with another number to call (health and safety ) but guess what? That doesn't work! Invalid number tone when I ring.

    Isn't the advice for symptomatic people to call the gp?

    Yes they are to call the GP but realistically what can someone who's trained to be on a phone line taking calls from people who might not have a gp regarding covid do about home help ?
    It's a different department and I know because I have a relative in the same position and it's the care office we contacted. They in turn take direction from the relative hse department


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  • Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    donaghs wrote: »
    Key workers dying? 1 in 5 chance of being hospitalized? what are you on about?

    Most people seem to experience a mild flu. For some the symptoms are so mild they never even realised they had it.
    Sure, protect the elderly and vulnerable, but lets not panic and lie to ourselves about how dangerous this is the general public.

    15 percent of people as patients in intensive care in Italy are frontline staff. Not sure how much that correlates to percentage of front line staff.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,570 ✭✭✭Ulysses Gaze


    donaghs wrote: »
    Key workers dying? 1 in 5 chance of being hospitalized? what are you on about?

    Most people seem to experience a mild flu. For some the symptoms are so mild they never even realised they had it.
    Sure, protect the elderly and vulnerable, but lets not panic and lie to ourselves about how dangerous this is the general public.

    20% are serious cases requiring hospitalisation. 5-7% require ICU treatment. This will flood the health system and overwhelm it. More health workers will catch it. Overwhelming the health system means other sick people, with life threatening illnesses that are not Covid, don't get treatment.

    Don't tell me you still buy this bull**** that it is an old person's disease? Or that it is still #JustAHeadCold.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    jonnny68 wrote: »
    Leo Varadakar really needs to take a step back and think about what he is saying on national TV, the calm before the storm is he for fcuking real as if many people aren't already panicking and anxiety through the roof that was the single worst thing he could have possibly said live on TV and i see he's getting serious stick for it too, between him and that other parasatic bas**rd Michael Martin who only the other day suggested that a government should be formed ASAP to tackle this crisis, so hungry for power even with something as serious as this will do anything to get in.

    Disagree. It was exactly what we needed to hear. A lot of people still don’t get it. We can’t rely on the common sense of everybody. Some people aren’t using common sense.

    Also, he’s getting far more praise than stick for the speech.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,104 ✭✭✭05eaftqbrs9jlh


    That's what these "Economy at all costs" types don't understand.

    Allowing Covid-19 spread to develop Herd Immunity is insanity.
    Not only will key workers die, as it is not just an old persons disease, but people will refuse to go to work anyway. Why go to work and risk your life if there is a 1 in 5 chance you will be hospitalised? Possibly in an ICU? Or that you will spread to other family members that will end up in hospital.

    The health system would collapse as more and more health workers would be infected. Supply chains would collapse or be crippled so badly that there would be food shortages.

    And people will also refuse to go to work because they will be nursing sick relatives.

    Take the pain now, or eke it out and destroy the fabric of our society.

    They are the choices we have now.

    I couldn't agree more. Excellently put.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭nthclare


    Some smart prick changed the sign for INAGH in Clare

    To CHINAGH

    Down with that sort of thing

    Its kind of funny though isn't it :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,247 ✭✭✭joeguevara


    15 percent of people as patients in intensive care in Italy are frontline staff. Not sure how much that correlates to percentage of front line staff.

    Any indication of ages of those front line staff?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Sardonicat wrote: »
    On hold 12 mins on the HSE helpline. Home help arrived in to my Dad this morning and informed me they will not be issued with any ppe beyond the gloves they always have. No masks, no sanitising hand gel, no disposable apron. The nature of their work means they cannot maintain physical distance and they are going from house to house all day. I am absolutely raging that they, their clients and any vulnerable people in their families are being put are risk in this way. 16 mins on hold now...

    There are not enough carers to have the same 2 people going solely to you father. I really don’t know what you think the hse helpline is going to do for you.

    If you’re worried then I’m afraid that you’re gonna have to take on the role yourself. Sorry to be blunt.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 445 ✭✭iwillyeah1234


    If ever the phrase "poor huddled masses" was applicable.

    i would walk straight out of a situation like that , and just get a cab , or rent a Boris bike.

    unbelievable that people still haven't got the message.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,998 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    nthclare wrote: »
    Some smart prick changed the sign for INAGH in Clare

    To CHINAGH

    Down with that sort of thing

    Its kind of funny though isn't it :)

    Thats old news


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Thinking of venturing out to supermarket. Article from BBC summarises my main concerns.
    • droplets could be in air for 3 hours after a cough
    • can survive on plastic up to 24 hours
    • can survivce on carboard.

    I'm not spreading panic as I guess the BBC isn't trying to do that either.
    I try to be a hyper realist and it gives me comfort when I'm real about that situation and face it knowingly. So here's what I'm going to do to confront that reality.
    • wear a respirator mask
    • wear gloves
    • wear goggles
    • immediately take off clothes which I wore in supermarket
    • leave items outside and disinfect packets and packaging I take into house.

    Feel free to call me mental but evidence is mounting
    "Like many respiratory viruses, including flu, Covid-19 can be spread in tiny droplets released from the nose and mouth of an infected person as they cough. A single cough can produce up to 3,000 droplets. These particles can land on other people, clothing and surfaces around them, but some of the smaller particles can remain in the air. There is also some evidence that the virus is also shed for longer in faecal matter, so anyone not washing their hands thoroughly after visiting the toilet could contaminate anything they touch."

    Their study, which has been published in the New England Journal of Medicine, shows that the virus could survive in droplets for up to three hours after being coughed out into the air.

    https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/aerosols/pdfs/Aerosol_101.pdf

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

    https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 653 ✭✭✭Irish_peppa


    What happens when the next virus comes out of China with a 50% mortality rate !
    after this nightmare is over the world needs a serious conversation about this eating wild animals crack !


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭nthclare


    c.p.w.g.w wrote: »
    Thats old news

    Is that so, well I only heard it this morning in the canteen, I thought it was funny anyhow


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,105 ✭✭✭Kivaro


    My NCT is due i think im going to take my chances and keep driving, If a cop wants to give me penalty points fine. ill just use cars in emergency life or death only. im in total lockdown
    It doesn't make sense to put people like you under unnecessary pressure during these trying times.

    As I said earlier, it makes sense to temporarily suspend testing now, as we all wait for the inevitable surge of this virus. The virus is spread mainly by contact; are NCT employees changing gloves after each inspection? Are they sanitising their testing gear after each inspection?
    And it is bewildering that Covid-19 is not even mentioned during the booking process. Very odd. It gives the impression that the NCT focus is financial.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    ok, so layoffs are inevitable in my place, at least temporarily. We are reviewing it week by week but in the meantime we are going to try pay people their €203 euro a week social welfare to get them paid and keep them out of dole offices

    What is the procedure for this, I have downloaded the social welfare 1 page form that Regina O Doherty announced but what do we do? I also think this is the wrong form to be honest, is there a special one for when employers are paying the €203 so we can claim it back??

    It’s a one sheet form and it’s titled COVID 19

    Sorry, I’m pages behind so may have been answered.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    donaghs wrote: »
    Key workers dying? 1 in 5 chance of being hospitalized? what are you on about?

    Most people seem to experience a mild flu. For some the symptoms are so mild they never even realised they had it.
    Sure, protect the elderly and vulnerable, but lets not panic and lie to ourselves about how dangerous this is the general public.

    Mild may not be as mild as you think, here’s a HSE Doctor on the AMA forum right now explain “mild”

    Mild: Doesn’t need hospitalisation. You may feel really sick, you may need home nebulisers, you may be on antibiotics. Doesn’t matter, if you don’t need hospital then you’re mild. Generally when people say they’re severely ill at home we don’t contradict them (since they certainly feel very ill) but in our minds you’re all mildly ill with varying levels of whining ;-). Doctors and nurses’ families will tell you how little sympathy they get from us when they tell us they’re sick. We’re the epitome of “If you aren’t hospitalised then you’re fine” even in general life most of the time

    So “mild” is anything that doesn’t end up in hospital, not necessarily a walk in the park....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Nermal wrote: »
    Like I said, driven by emotion. All of us, parents or not, have to die of something.

    Our economy will recover pre-crisis levels of GDP - but we will never get back the lost output. The debt we will generate will last for generations. Capital will be destroyed, investment will dry up. Young people will suffer reduced earnings their entire lives because of this.

    Lives are precious, but they’re not priceless.

    Ah yeah, as a 36 year old immunocompromised person, I’ve had a good run. :rolleyes:

    Will you ever go and shite? Yes, we all die but most people want to maximise their time on earth before that happens.

    Anyone who trots out the trite, facile “Sure we all die sometimes” in relation to sick people needs to be shot with tightly-compacted balls of their own excrement. Dopes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    spookwoman wrote: »
    Researchers at the respected Sharif University of Technology in Tehran have created a computer simulator to test different scenarios for the further spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, across Iran. They concluded that in a best-case scenario — in which the government quarantines all high-risk areas, people strictly obey quarantine rules, and access to sufficient medical supplies is guaranteed — the country would reach the peak of the epidemic in roughly one week, and the death toll would exceed 12,000.

    Yet that scenario is unrealistic in all three instances: The government can't impose quarantine, people will not obey quarantine rules, and the medical supply situation is catastrophic thanks to US sanctions and chronic mismanagement.

    Accounting for those realities, the researchers estimate Iran will not reach the peak of the epidemic until late May, and they estimate as many as 3.5 million people could die as a result.

    https://www.dw.com/en/iran-faces-catastrophic-death-toll-from-coronavirus/a-52811895


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,452 ✭✭✭1800_Ladladlad


    The mother, she works in Marks and spencer where told this morning before the store opened that they are not allowed to wear gloves and they will be allowed to go off the floor to wash their hands every half hour. No explanation has been given.


  • Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    joeguevara wrote: »
    Any indication of ages of those front line staff?

    Can't remember breakdown of ages. It was on a conference call with an ICU team in Gemelli. There was some cases of 20-30 age staff in severe condition in Italy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,649 ✭✭✭✭cj maxx


    Disagree. It was exactly what we needed to hear. A lot of people still don’t get it. We can’t rely on the common sense of everybody. Some people aren’t using common sense.

    Also, he’s getting far more praise than stick for the speech.
    The calm before the storm before the surge were the words he used. Some people just don't understand that


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,575 ✭✭✭RandomName2


    Deaths have been around 350 each day for the last three days in Italy. Also around 3,000 new cases each day for the last three days in Italy.

    Hopefully most of this will be from the period before the lockdown. We should hopefully see a sharp decrease in new cases (and consequently deaths) in Italy soon, provided the lockdown is adhered to.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 445 ✭✭iwillyeah1234


    Drumpot wrote: »
    I watched it with my wife and 3 young boys (oldest is 11) and they particularly perked up when he told children to think about their parents. At the end I said “superb, we are in good hands everybody” and I really believe it. Regardless of how bad this gets, I can’t imagine a much better response from the people leading us right now. We are following what WHO and De Aylward said from the start and part of that was to educate your population and bring them with you. Get them on board, get them to be your feet on the ground. If we all comply and come together we stand a much better chance of getting through this. I really can’t write enough on why they are doing such a good job for me....

    In the UK, they are going to rush through an emergency powers bill on Thursday (tommorow). The Emergency Coronavirus Bill.

    I suspect the Irish government will do the same - hence Coveney's "get home by Thursday".


    Robert Peston tweets:
    "There has never in my lifetime been a law that so encroached on our civil liberties and basic rights as the Coronavirus Bill"

    and

    "huge. It covers everything from burials, to holding those who threaten national security for longer, to closing borders, to detaining those with mental health issues, to empowering the police to quarantine those with the virus, and much more. This is...wartime stuff. "


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 206 ✭✭jamesf85


    How many people are unemployed now?

    How does this look for the world economy if it continues for 2-3 months?

    Will the EU have funds to bail countries like Ireland out? If so how? If not why?


This discussion has been closed.
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