Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

Lex Luthor wrote: »

Can they actually do that as it’s legal tender?

When you use a card machine you have to put in your pin on same buttons touched by everyone else

They are doing it and I think the reasoning is that we keep cash on ourselves and pass it on to others. Whereas with the card machines it's a one off, plus there are contactless payments, but indeed wash your hands immediately after using one of those things.

Bob24 wrote: »

2008 was the financial economy breaking down and contaminating the real economy. This was in good part solved with cheap money injections creating a massive debt bubble, which is a pre-existing systemic problem to the virus.
Now we have the real economy completely stopping due to virus and contaminating the financial economy. The stock market collapse is the first step but what is to follow is that zombie companies kept alive by cheap money will collapse (as well as some sound companies which are just badly hit by restriction measures required to slow-down the virus), meaning losses for banks on the loans they had granted to these companies (plus probably some mortgage and personal loans defaults as people working for these companies lose their jobs). Besides that interest rates will have to be kept bottom low or even go deeper into negative territory to maintain some level of debt affordability for governments and the companies/individuals which remain. Low interest rates have been hurting banks for a while and this is going to become unsustainable.

So IMO we did have a pre-existing systemic issue (an unsustainable debt bubble) and one top of the rest of the damage it is doing the virus will triggers the collapse of that house of cards. I.e. I wouldn’t agree to say banks are safer than they were in 2008 (but one thing which is for sure is they governments and central banks are in a worse position to safe banks shall it be required - debt/GDP ratios are higher and QE and low interest rates are already required even before the debt crisis blows-up).

It's much less of a house of cards now than it was in 2008. A virus driven global recession could indeed get pretty bad, but the system should be much more capable of dealing with it

cnocbui wrote: »

More than one observer has used the word depression. No authority has enough money to bail out financial markets, and the market knows it, there is just too much debt.

We're all looking at this going "They couldn't do it again, people will get wise"

They will do it again. Print their way out of oblivion. It's happening right now and will get more severe, and people won't realise their money has devalued at all, and will accept new stealth tax as if it's natural.

grindle wrote: »

We're all looking at this going "They couldn't do it again, people will get wise"

They will do it again. Print their way out of oblivion. It's happening right now and will get more severe, and people won't realise their money has devalued at all, and will accept new stealth tax as if it's natural.

Surely the will.

But IMO this will go even further - as alluded to in previous posts MMT is just around the corner.

My bet is that many people will start to understand that current monetary easing policies (QE and low rates) are basically helping those who are already wealthy by helping them to buy mores assets and inflating asset prices (essentially improving the income which can be made from capital while labour income is stagnating or lagging behind in terms of progression).

And then there will be some background noise getting louder and louder saying that if we are to essentially print money to save the system, why not giving it directly to the people who need it rather than the wealthiest (either through helicopter money or through central banks funding government debt used to lower income tax and to increase social welfare spendings).

Morally this will feel right and the argument will be that since QE proved that nowadays money printing doesn't cause inflation anymore, this is a viable solution to save the system while rebalancing the ratio of labour and capital income. I could be wrong but I think it will become an election topic across the Western world.

It would feel great for the first few years with people seeing their purchasing power increase. But inevitably it would lead to massive inflation (the people saying that low interest rates and QE are not causing inflation are wrong; they have caused massive inflation in asset prices which is were they money was directed, but if the money is now redirected to the real economy through helicopter money or social spendings, consumer prices is were inflation will move eventually). And then once out of control inflation becomes a thing we enter Venezuela territory in terms of the value of money (maybe not as bad, but same idea).

If the above scenario plays-out and to try and stay on topic - it should be good for hard money including gold and crypto.

Lex Luthor wrote: »

Contactless has a max of €30

I think it's ludicrous that banks haven't increased it to €70 or €80, given the circumstances. I twice had to use cash today because the trolley total was over €30.

Not everybody buys €600 phones every year.

My Mi5S had NFC 4 years ago, my upgrade to Pocophone two years ago = no NFC

It would feel great for the first few years with people seem their purchasing power increase. But inevitably it would lead to massive inflation (the people saying that low interest rates and QE are not causing inflation are wrong; they have caused massive inflation in asset prices which is were they money was directed

I don't think either of us could be sure of the outcome of this but it's much of a muchness imo. We've been going through a "boom" that only tech companies and landlords have benefited from. Not an actual boom and something I'd prefer to see whittled down. even if it is severe.

grindle wrote: »

Not everybody buys €600 phones every year.

Just for the records, even Apple offers brand new iPhones with Apple Pay for 550 (with cheaper option available during sales and with refurbished products). And every new iPhone (even entry level products) has been compatible with Apple Pay for over 5 years so there is not need to have been buying a new one every year - even a very long upgrade cycle of 5 years cycle would have worked.

Not as familiar with Android but I assume the cost to access Android Pay is much lower.

But yes, granted not everyone has a compatible phone.

makeorbrake wrote: »

That said, everyone's circumstances are different. If I didn't have a single satoshi, I'd certainly buy some today.

Yes that’s the thing. IMO there is way too much volatility and risk of further drops at the moment for someone who is already heavily invested to buy more.

But for someone who’s new to this or who had cleared their positions and was waiting on the sideline, yes sure they can start buying (but gradually).

I also think someone with cash and already fairly loaded with crypto and with little exposure to equities should look at the stock market for diversification. The bottom might not be in yet, but there are and will be many good companies on discount.

cnocbui wrote: »

Might be a bit soon to go for equities, just at the moment:

100% agree (it is a bit late but I am actually still considering shorting the S&P500). One thing I’d monitor is for the VIX to drop back below 20 before making a move. With the current crazy volatility the stock market is almost a casino (or at least it is more suitable for day traders than long term investors).

And I think there is potential for a recession/depression worst than the 2008 one. It is not certain but it is not priced into the market yet, so agree it could still drop significantly.

Having said that I’d say that same thing as I did about crypto: if someone is heavily invested in equities they probably shouldn’t load up anymore. But for someone which has no exposure, once the VIX drops they can start deploying some cash.

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

for now.

You're learning. Anyway, who cares what the fiat value of BTC is, 1 BTC = 1 BTC we're all in this for the tech