CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Speaking of people collapsing in the streets, I had a look at the temple bar cam out of curiosity earlier. I noticed in the clips underneath, there is a person lying on the ground. If you look at the sequence, 2 other people arrive and then the guards too. Maybe it was a fight or something but given the context it's a bit scary

2 lads then cops come and one takes his jacket off and turns it inside out. a 3rd appears as jacket guy is at the bikes. looks like the first 2 do something to the 3r and then they have a dance around the place. :mad:

Deleted User wrote: »

Bit of a pity seeing friends today on Facebook getting suckered into MLMs. Same will happen all over I guess with lots not working.

Haven't seen this yet, what are they selling? Handwipes?

Raconteuse wrote: »

Italy's death rate IS 7% (more actually). Whatever about people making forecasts, what's wrong with stating facts?

Closer to 8% at this point.
The real figure is really higher as the above ignores those currently critical who add to the death toll.
They aren't really marking cases as recovered too readily, so the deaths as a % of closed cases is misleading (46%)

Iceman1984 wrote: »

Anyone in grocery retail will know things are nuts at the moment. We have a small independent grocery shop & I’m going against the grain & reducing our opening hours by 4 hours per day. If that doesn’t suit people we are offering free home delivery locally.
I need to push delivery, I do not want customers in our store unnecessarily.
I am feeling people have unrealistic expectations of grocery retailers at the moment, we closed Monday for 1 hour because people were not practicing social distancing. Had to physically put a staff member on the door & allow only a few in at a time.
We put gloves & sanitizer outside our door for people waiting to come in & both were robbed. This pandemic will bring out the best in a lot of people but it will also bring out the worst. Please everyone be kind & understanding when out getting your groceries. Staying at home is not an option for us, people need food. We’d like to get home safe & healthy.

Would preorder via email and then collect work. Simple template excel and message a time for collection.

joeguevara wrote: »

Would preorder via email and then collect work. Simple template excel and message a time for collection.

Our website has a very simple ordering platform, payment taken online.
Also taking orders via social media & telephone.

joeguevara wrote: »

Is it being used or do people still want to go in person

If my company is anything to go by, websites are being swamped.

Iceman1984 wrote: »

Being used but not as much as it could be, ordering online involves being organised & planning ahead. Still a lot of people want to come in for a wander around & cant understand why we aren’t operating as normal.

Really? Christ. Most people I meet are going "overboard" but it's a valid overboard to me, our health system is crippled.

Got this from an American website. Don't read if you want to avoid being depressed.

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week.
The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.

Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.

This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.

That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.

Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.

After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.

Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.

Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.

It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do.

grindle wrote: »

Really? Christ. Most people I meet are going "overboard" but it's a valid overboard to me, our health system is crippled.

About 35% of our business since last Thursday has been done online. Before that about 10%.

I’d prefer if 80% was done online now. If we keep our team healthy we can trade through this & keep our business alive and people in jobs.

All staff have been told they do not have to come to work by the way. It’s their decision.

Can anyone from HR give me some solid advice here. I am an Environmental Health & Safety (EHS) Specialist in a Pharma Plant. With the Covid-19 outbreak I have been asked to provide 'EHS Leadership' for the facility by working at the site fulltime.

This changed from a morning conversation that I had with the General Manager, we talked, he said you will be able to work from home, I said yes no problems, but I am not far from the facility so could come in twice a week & rotate my office with our Facilities Dept employee at the facility as the office is quite small.

All this changed in the afternoon whereby he showed me a presentation from a morning meeting from a 'Global Leader Forum' & it mentioned all essential employees for the running of the facility are required to be on site one being 'EHS Leadership'.

Guys,
I am not a member of the Site Leadership Team
We don't have an EHS Manager on site or an EHS Dept, I am the only person
I don't make EHS decisions, its always Management

Really, I am concerned that management seem to want me now to be at the facility full time & perhaps they will be the ones working from home, can anyone give me some solid advice here, thanks.

Ursabear wrote: »

Surely this isn't legal :? Kicking ppl out of accomodation because of coronavirus fears of spread https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/coronavirus-trinity-students-criticise-move-to-shut-campus-housing-1.4205145

Student accommodation has a few legal differences from renting a home.

You can do it in student accomodation but not in residential.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Bit of a pity seeing friends today on Facebook getting suckered into MLMs. Same will happen all over I guess with lots not working.

What’s mlms?

Edit

It’s ok. A pyramid scheme. Not on any social media apart from here so not familiar with the term.

Iceman1984 wrote: »

No, we are a small business & would simply go bust if we did that leaving no jobs for anyone. All their hours have been reduced this week but salaries maintained once we continue to trade at an appropriate level. If they are too frightened to come to work for whatever reason their jobs will be here for them when this passes. All staff are happy with appropriate measures in store to date.

Sounds like you are doing great things for staff and customers. Maybe local radio could publicise your online ordering. Perhaps a small draw for customers who do is an idea.