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CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

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Comments

  • #7742
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    200k cases confirmed worldwide, and Italy along around the 30k mark.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
    Mightn't be too outlandish to guess actual un-confirmed walking cases could well be close to 1m globally?

    Might be time to leave the boards everyone and prepare for Phase 3/4, maybe return in Summer when it's all over (for a while).


  • #7743
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »
    If you think only 25,000 in Italy have or have had this virus you are very wrong. The real number is probably in the hundreds of thousands. There could well be 15,000 cases here as we speak.
    Once a country has a case of community infection without a known connection to a previously infected person the contagion is out of control.

    If, and only if, that that person has been within a very easily geographically restricted area (with few unknown transients) then quarantining the area from travel may stop the spread of the infection to the rest of the population.

    In our case once it was identified in the wild in Cork the horse was out of the stable. Mandatory quarantining all traveller immediately might have prevented more wild clusters developing, though it's highly unlikely given the variety of human infection vector paths.

    SF fans will know this of old, 'if could return to the time, before we knew what was going to happen, happened, ... we could stop it happening'.


  • #7744
    pH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,188 ✭✭✭pH


    darced wrote: »
    What? Trump and Boris are actually doing at least the same or more.

    The main difference between here and the UK is the schools not being closed and that pubs aren't 'officially' closed, just people advised not to use them (To be fair people can sit around in restaurant in Ireland tonight if they want to)

    On the other side the UK have been far more proactive about advice to the elderly, Leo's "cocooning" is what Boris has been saying for days now.

    As of a few days ago the UK had done roughly 10x the number of tests ireland had, which is reasonably in line with the populations.

    My understanding is that the epidemiologist and modellers who put together the UK models think that school closure has a minimal effect on the disease's spread when compared to these children needing alternative arrangements and being cared for by family/friends/grandparents.

    Sure they may be wrong, and everyone posting here seems to thinks it's evidence of incompetence or some sort of eugenics program being inflicted on the UK people, but it really isn't. And if it is the wrong decision, it's not wrong by much.

    From the model School Closure assumptions:

    Household contact rates for student families increase by 50% during closure. Contacts in the community increase by 25% during closure.


  • #7745
    NegativeCreep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,351 ✭✭✭NegativeCreep


    It’s probably been asked before but where is the increase of 30% a day coming from? I can’t find the increases from each day so I’m wondering have we actually seen a 30% increase every day since CV arrived here?


  • #7746
    Mervyn Skidmore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,210 ✭✭✭Mervyn Skidmore


    To all the people saying that they are terrified or their parents are terrified, good.


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  • #7747
    Lord Trollington
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,419 ✭✭✭Lord Trollington


    blackcard wrote: »
    So my ill conceived and badly thought out plan would be as follows.
    Country including airports goes into a lockdown expect for critical front line staff.
    A third of all healthy people including some frontline staff between 0 and 60 are packed off to hotels, barracks etc. Some people with the covid 19 virus are introduced, everyone shakes hands, cough, sniffle etc. until everyone has the virus, they stay there for 2 weeks until they recover. They can then go back to work, open shops, play sport. Over the next 4 weeks, the other 2/3 of the population under 60 are infected and recover. Normal life resumes. You would carry out a risk assessment on the rest of the population and infect those who are lower risk and who are willing. The remainder are given care to prevent them picking up the virus. Country back to normal by May

    Thank fcuk you are not the CMO or the Taoiseach.


  • #7748
    jam_mac_jam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭jam_mac_jam


    Blueshoe wrote: »
    He was the first to propose banning international flights. The Eu has followed suit.
    Trump is miles ahead

    Loads of countries banned flights from China before this. Isreal and Jordan closed travel before the US.

    The US have done great things on the crisis recently but were not the first to stop flights.


  • #7749
    Tony EH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,712 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    tonycascarino wrote: »
    So what I got from the speech is that many many more people are going to get infected and some will die, a recession is on the way, this will go on for months and a lockdown will probably come fairly soon.

    Not only that, we're going to borrow more billions because of this. This, on top of the billions we already owe because of the bank bailout in 2008.

    This country was already in multi generational debt.

    Some people may have "cried" because of a few platitudes in Leo's speech, as "well delivered" as it was. But there's more in there (and not in there) that should have people very worried about the long term future of this country. People are already up to the eyeballs in debt because of crazy mortgages and put to the pin of their collar ridiculous rents.

    Action on that is what will be needed. Even more so as more and more people lose their jobs and we get deeper into borrowing.

    The worst of the virus may be over in a few months. But the fallout will last a lot longer than that.


  • #7750
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    Sir Oxman wrote: »
    i have to say screening 'Rosie' isn't exactly an uplifting experience for the nation.
    (Important film though it surely is)

    Aye, perhaps as important as it is the timing is very very counter productive.


  • #7751
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    irishguy1983 wrote: »
    Again have to stick with what we know....I’m sure there are cases undiagnosed but just pulling figures out of the sky doesn’t help.....At the moment is is approx 250/260 in Ireland and I highly doubt it will be 15,000 by end of March....There was a total of 69 today and I presume (hoping) more and more are isolating....

    It would be 15,000 if the 30% daily increase continues - tomorrow's figures to watch would be 88 and 380.


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  • #7752
    didntgotoplan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 236 ✭✭didntgotoplan


    Airyfairy12 wrote: »
    But you cant guarantee that others aren't bringing it into the home. My father for instance is taking no precautions at all despite my mother having 2 illness that make her very high risk. If she catches coronavirus she will die, no doubt about it. My dad wont even wash his hands and is living his life as normal, he's actually annoyed at being expected to change his habits. You never know what people are like or how seriously theyre going to take this. Youd expect people to have a little bit of common sense but allot of people really dont. Approach everyone like they have the virus.

    I thought I was the only one with one but my stepfather doesn't wash his hands and coughs openly knowing that two people in the house suffer from illnesses. You remind him and he tells me off for being stupid! He got angry over the speech as he thought lockdown and being off work was coming for him.


  • #7753
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »
    To all the people saying that they are terrified or their parents are terrified, good.

    Why is that good?


  • #7754
    saabsaab
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    weldoninhio wrote: »
    How does that work on a busy bus, Luas or train??


    Exactly, there are a few holes in the strategy. There should be an aerosol disinfectant spray on all public transport. Also our cash needs disinfecting as the number of hands it goes through will mean it is and will increasing be a virus vector.


  • #7755
    Cilldara_2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,189 ✭✭✭Cilldara_2000


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    Are the testing centres 24/7? Think that would be good for people to just go without an appointment out of hours.

    It would be pure insanity to let every gob****e with a sniffle just rock up to these places. We've done well to clear the hypochondriacs with paper clip lacerations* out of A&E. We don't need them to congregate at testing centres instead.

    * Credit to Atlantic Dawn for this excellent phrase.


  • #7756
    ITman88
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 876 ✭✭✭ITman88


    Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »
    Well it's a fact that 25,000 positve tests have been taken but not the whole population has been tested. I think it's reasonable to speculate a much higher actual number.

    It may not be reasonable to speculate


  • #7757
    Ace2007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,029 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    kaymin wrote: »
    What actions did this vigilance translate to? The US was among the first to ban flights from other countries. Thankfully for us, given our govts inaction, the Italian government basically shut down flights out of north Italy

    I love how posters attack the government,

    When Harris cancelled the Ireland v Italy Rugby game, the abuse on boards - over dramatic etc, now we look back and think that was a good idea - and look how many more sporting occasions have been cancelled - pretty much the entire world....

    You say it's the government fault - what about the IRISH that travelled to Italy and came back here - do they not have to take any responsibility?

    I read people saying they should have closed the airports - so what do you do with the thousands of Irish abroad - something like 20,000 in Spain alone - just leave them there?


  • #7758
    d8491prj5boyvg
    Closed Accounts Posts: 508 ✭✭✭d8491prj5boyvg


    CinemaGuy45 wrote: »
    Why is that good?

    Presumably because they will change their behaviour and be cautious, otherwise people will die.


  • #7759
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    NegativeCreep wrote: »
    It’s probably been asked before but where is the increase of 30% a day coming from? I can’t find the increases from each day so I’m wondering have we actually seen a 30% increase every day since CV arrived here?

    Oddly, both daily increases since the statement was made have perfectly matched the model.


  • #7760
    Marje
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 862 ✭✭✭Marje


    olestoepoke wrote: »
    My wife works in a pharmacy. I'm working from home with the kids. She is our biggest worry now. Where's one of the first place a sick person goes? Into their pharmacy. She's doing her best by washing her hands and using sanitiser but they have been unbelievably busy with customers in the last couple of weeks. It's an ill wind that doesn't blow for someone, her boss is taking in twice what he normally does in a day.

    My local chemist has brought in a policy of only 2 people allowed in the shop, there's a staff member at the door letting people in and out.

    I would have thought that chemist shops would start this policy now rather than later.


  • #7761
    babybuilder
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,111 ✭✭✭babybuilder


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/colmtobin/status/1240044972629524480
    Get a life. Is this the same revisionist Colm?


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  • #7762
    irishguy1983
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭irishguy1983


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    It would be 15,000 if the 30% daily increase continues - tomorrow's figures to watch would be 88 and 380.

    Well it didn’t make a 30% increase since ydy so they are behind already - they mentioned 30% ydy evening....Please quote me at end of March if I am wrong! I love the way everyone suddenly things the guy they thought was a clown 4 weeks ago/pre election is now the greatest leader ever....Anyway I gotta hit the bed!!


  • #7763
    storker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,712 ✭✭✭storker


    Bonzo Delaney wrote: »
    If she farted no one would of bated an eyelid these days

    Miriam does not fart. Ever.


  • #7764
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Ninthlife wrote: »
    You dont like Leo, we get it. You do know he is really just a mouth piece now and all the decisions are being made behind the scenes by teams of experts in relative fields.

    Leo himself wasnt ever going to save us. The collective effort of those making and those implementing the plans will.

    Ah yes, let's just abstain the leader of the country from actually leading the country.

    I don't know Leo well enough to dislike him, could be a great man to have a pint with. What I dislike is his current performance in the face of what is a life and death crisis.


  • #7765
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,315 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    NegativeCreep wrote: »
    It’s probably been asked before but where is the increase of 30% a day coming from? I can’t find the increases from each day so I’m wondering have we actually seen a 30% increase every day since CV arrived here?

    It's definitely been along those lines in the last three or four days, yes.


  • #7766
    saabsaab
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    I love how posters attack the government,

    When Harris cancelled the Ireland v Italy Rugby game, the abuse on boards - over dramatic etc, now we look back and think that was a good idea - and look how many more sporting occasions have been cancelled - pretty much the entire world....

    You say it's the government fault - what about the IRISH that travelled to Italy and came back here - do they not have to take any responsibility?

    I read people saying they should have closed the airports - so what do you do with the thousands of Irish abroad - something like 20,000 in Spain alone - just leave them there?


    Quarantine them! or if necessary leave them there until we can.


  • #7767
    darced
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,056 ✭✭✭darced


    Ace2007 wrote: »

    I read people saying they should have closed the airports - so what do you do with the thousands of Irish abroad - something like 20,000 in Spain alone - just leave them there?

    You take them back and quarantine them? It's not exactly rocket science.


  • #7768
    rossie1977
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,433 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    Blueshoe wrote: »
    He was the first to propose banning international flights. The Eu has followed suit.
    Trump is miles ahead

    Italy banned Chinese flights before the US.. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2020/03/12/italy-banned-flights-from-china-before-americait-didnt-work/#216b8739481b


  • #7769
    Ace2007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,029 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    CinemaGuy45 wrote: »
    Why is that good?

    Well the please stay at home approach - didn't really work,

    Then we had the what I'll call "Social Media" approach - over the weekend - every "celeb" on it telling folk to stay in etc.

    Yet so many people just don't listen, so maybe hard facts will work.


  • #7770
    Pinch Flat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,780 ✭✭✭Pinch Flat


    Marje wrote: »
    My local chemist has brought in a policy of only 2 people allowed in the shop, there's a staff member at the door letting people in and out.

    I would have thought that chemist shops would start this policy now rather than later.

    Same near me. Pretty much one in one out.


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  • #7771
    Blueshoe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,964 ✭✭✭Blueshoe


    jam_mac_jam wrote: »
    Loads of countries banned flights from China before this. Isreal and Jordan closed travel before the US.

    The US have done great things on the crisis recently but were not the first to stop flights.

    He banned flights from the Eu and quickly added in the UK and Ireland. He was slated for it.

    Canada has banned non nationals from entering the country. No grief for Trudeau.

    Boris wants the elderly to isolate. Got slated for it

    Leo says the same this evening. Calls it cocooning. Not a bad word said against him.


This discussion has been closed.
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