CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) Read OP

Ace2007 · 17-03-2020 03:47PM

threeball wrote: »

And so it starts. This is going to get messy quick

Not really,

And this is something that the media have to learn to control. if you look in absolute numbers, they will be frightening, but if you look at the number of cases compared with the population, and look at the measures that are being taken.

What the UK are doing is different from Ireland, so maybe people in Ireland will realise that the plan of shutting schools was the right one, when the see big numbers of cases.

Also when the number was around 500, the UK spokesman actually said the true number was probably between 5,000 and 10,000.

Media need to calm down

Lord TSC · 17-03-2020 03:47PM

Amazon have just sent round messages to sellers, basically saying no one can ship in non-essential goods for the next three weeks. Foods, medicine and categories like that are fine, but they are limiting shipments in beyond that

autumnbelle · 17-03-2020 03:48PM

Is this live briefing going to announce numbers

splinter65 · 17-03-2020 03:48PM

Mr Vallance answering questions right now on the BBC. Riveting stuff.

Rob A. Bank · 17-03-2020 03:48PM

Tatiana Tangy Someway wrote: »

China were most likely 'cooking' their reference figures, amongst other things.

Age might be a factor, but this average point might be declining there, as services are put under strain, and they're likely still aren't near the peak.

Proof ?

The WHO expert China team, made up of many of the world's leading Virologists and Epidemiologists, have stated that the Chinese figures were real.

They also said that the epidemic there was a pyramid and not an iceberg. The number of asymptomatic cases were minuscule.

Lord Trollington · 17-03-2020 03:49PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

This won't go away until there is a vaccine will it?

Does this mean we live like monks for the next year ?

It will go away or lessen let's say once a good % of the population gets it and builds up immunity .

This will allow the health system to deal with more serious cases . Also when a reliable treatment becomes available .

hatrickpatrick · 17-03-2020 03:49PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

This won't go away until there is a vaccine will it?

Does this mean we live like monks for the next year ?

Every possibility it'll go into seasonal hibernation like some other viruses do. Also every possibility that it won't, of course. But in the scenario in which it does, I can see corners being cut in terms of pushing the vaccine out before Christmas 2020, otherwise the sleeping menace will ram into a society full of extremely busy social gatherings with utterly chaotic results.

It's a bit like that film The Martian. Wait and see how much the authorities are willing to bend the usual rules around testing and wait times once there's a serious crisis underway. I'd be surprised if they didn't waive some of the normal hoops a vaccine has to jump through in order to push a COVID vaccine out far sooner than a drug would normally be made publicly available.

threeball · 17-03-2020 03:50PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

Not really,

And this is something that the media have to learn to control. if you look in absolute numbers, they will be frightening, but if you look at the number of cases compared with the population, and look at the measures that are being taken.

What the UK are doing is different from Ireland, so maybe people in Ireland will realise that the plan of shutting schools was the right one, when the see big numbers of cases.

Also when the number was around 500, the UK spokesman actually said the true number was probably between 5,000 and 10,000.

Media need to calm down

Their critical patient count is going to spiral in the next few days because of the lack of measures in the last 2 weeks.

Hobgoblin11 · 17-03-2020 03:51PM

Covid 19= Chinese Corona Virus 2019
China has reacted angrily after US President Donald Trump referred to the coronavirus as “Chinese”.
A foreign ministry spokesman warned the US should “take care of its own business” before stigmatising China.
The first cases of Covid-19 were recorded in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019.
However, last week a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman shared a conspiracy theory, alleging the US Army had brought it to the region.
The unfounded accusation led US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to demand China stop spreading “disinformation” as it tried “to shift blame” for the outbreak.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-51928011

Syncpolice · 17-03-2020 03:51PM

Lord TSC wrote: »

Amazon have just sent round messages to sellers, basically saying no one can ship in non-essential goods for the next three weeks. Foods, medicine and categories like that are fine, but they are limiting shipments in beyond that

Where u hear this

theballz · 17-03-2020 03:51PM

I hope to christ when all this is done they close them horrible markets in china.

MizMix · 17-03-2020 03:52PM

Syncpolice wrote: »

Where u hear this

They emailed all sellers- I was a seller a few years back and I got it too

bekker · 17-03-2020 03:52PM

pH wrote: »

If you read the imperial college epidemiology I posted you would understand why what you just posted is not correct. The UK abandoned mitigation not because they made a balls of it, but because data from Italy and elsewhere showed that their health service would not be able to cope.

This graph shows their analysis, the blue curve is their most serious attempt at mitigation and it goes on until August this year.

Anywhere where the blue curve is above that red line on the bottom is health service overload (and as you can see it's not 10% over it's 10 times overloaded) and represents hundreds of thousands of deaths, bluntly - it's a blood bath.

Ireland has done nothing special, if we go for a mitigation strategy then we too will overload our health system massively (a factor of 10 at least) and there will be tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of deaths.

Most effective illustration of the real problem.

Governments world are not adopting measures that may wreck their economies because of their fears of numbers of deaths from the virus per se.

They fear what would happen when their hospital systems collapse, that has been key number they are focusing upon, how to stop/delay it being reached hopefully until palliative measures have emerged.

It is irrelevant the nature of the regime, all are confronted by the same dynamic albeit via different mechanisms*. Mass public disorder, and possible societal collapse. Perhaps a more salient fear from their perspective, disappearance of the existing power structure

cf The Prince, Machiavelli

Jin luk · 17-03-2020 03:53PM

Blueshoe wrote: »

Wow. That's a big increase. We will see another 38 cases today. Chalk it down

That's 0.00293% of the population infected.

Will be 60+ announced today going by varadkars percentage.

Fakediamond · 17-03-2020 03:53PM

NapoleonInRags wrote: »

None of those explain the mortality rate in fairness.

I don’t think they know why themselves. Did anyone see channel 4 news report from an Italian hospital last night? It was grim for sure, but the intensive care doc says they don’t understand why people on ventilators are not getting any better, even after a number of weeks. The docs are finding it very distressing as they feel they’re not doing their jobs right, in getting people well again

leavingirl · 17-03-2020 03:53PM

They say that most people with COVID have no symptoms. Should everyone report themselves to authorities? The stock market is crashing and we are headed towards a 1930's depression based on mindless panic.

qm1bv4p8i92aoj · 17-03-2020 03:53PM

300 ventilators secured on top of our 500 already and expect to secure 100 every week from here on in. Relief to hear that now from the CMO press conference.

pH · 17-03-2020 03:54PM

threeball wrote: »

The UK didn't even model the correct virus. They are going to be overrun because they acted too late. Their new graphs showed that if they continued down that path that they would have minimum 250,000 dead. They still have put the correct checks and balances in place. They are not running any particular strategy as there is no clear message. The reality is that the UK don't have a strategy. They're already running out of PPE for health workers and it hasn't even gained traction there yet.

These arguments are pointless - at the heart of it it comes down to a very simple model.

For a population with age and health demographics like Ireland the rough expected figures are

1% death rate (unavoidable)
4% requiring intensive care (can be saved, but will die if no ICU available)

We have around 250 ICU beds, let's say we can double this to 500 and not use them for any other reason except for covid-19 patients, and each patient needs the bed for 10 days then we can treat 50 new severe covid-19 patients per day.

For every 1,000 patients that catch are infected - 50(5%) will need the ICU care outlined above.

Any day that more than 1,000 people become infected will generate more cases than the health service could cope with (based on 500 icu beds)

The population of Ireland is 4.9 million, 70% needed for herd immunity is 3,400,000. If we restrict the spread to 1,000 case per day this takes 3,400 days (about 9 years). That's 9 years of schools closed and social distancing! This is clearly impossible.

banie01 · 17-03-2020 03:54PM

cosanostra wrote: »

Once you factor in the number of people who are asymptomatic and/or haven't been tested that will bring down the mortality rate significantly

It will bring down the overall rate in terms of infected/recovered Vs infected dead.

The % is not the issue here.
The actual number of people who are contracting Covid-19 and needing hospital support is the issue.

The number of deaths directly attributable to Covid-19 is the issue.
The number of other deaths due to resources being pulled away from immediate emergency care and A+E are the issue.

I have said it before, and I will keep saying it.
This illness is an attritional monster, it sucks in medical resources and leaves the sick patients needing prolonged specialist care and support especially compared to the usual ICU patient.

maxpowers · 17-03-2020 03:55PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

This won't go away until there is a vaccine will it?

Does this mean we live like monks for the next year ?

Its here to stay forever just like normal flu. Hopefully a vaccine will be on the scene in the next 18 months or so. People will not accept Economic Armageddon for a long period. We will have to accept the harsh reality eventually unfortunately.

cj maxx · 17-03-2020 03:55PM

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

10 new cases in NI bringing the total to 62

The way I feel it might be 11.
Advice is to self isolate for 7 days and house mates to isolate for 2 weeks?
Only call 111 if I can't manage!

WoollyRedHat · 17-03-2020 03:55PM

Decision to close universities is also key for slowing spread of outbreak.. 250,000 students in 3rd Level

Gynoid · 17-03-2020 03:55PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I had acknowledged several pages earlier that I misinterpreted the comment. You're on such high moral ground it must be right baltic.

Sorry Bertie, I was way back when I replied, so did not realise others had clarified. I am lying on the couch, it is quite low. And warm

In fairness you were a tad swift to bite her head off.

Sam Hain · 17-03-2020 03:56PM

Syncpolice wrote: »

Where u hear this

Probably from the email he got.

Funsterdelux · 17-03-2020 03:56PM

China:

20 out of 21 new cases reported today are travelers from abroad [source]

Another reason to restrict travel

Adiboo · 17-03-2020 03:56PM

Lord TSC wrote: »

Amazon have just sent round messages to sellers, basically saying no one can ship in non-essential goods for the next three weeks. Foods, medicine and categories like that are fine, but they are limiting shipments in beyond that

Believe it just applies to items that shipped as "Fulfilled by Amazon". Shipping direct from suppliers to customers not affected.

The essentials they are prioritising are -

"baby product; health & household (including personal care appliances); beauty & personal care; grocery; industrial & scientific; pet supplies."

Lord TSC · 17-03-2020 03:56PM

Syncpolice wrote: »

Where u hear this

I'm reading it on their forums, and they've emailed sellers too.

Temporarily prioritizing products coming into our fulfillment centers

We are closely monitoring the developments of COVID-19 and its impact on our customers, selling partners, and employees.

We are seeing increased online shopping and as a result some products such as household staples and medical supplies are out of stock. With this in mind, we are temporarily prioritizing household staples, medical supplies and other high-demand products coming into our fulfillment centers so that we can more quickly receive, restock, and ship these products to customers.

For products other than these, we have temporarily disabled shipment creation. We are taking a similar approach with retail vendors.

This will be in effect today through April 5, 2020, and we will let you know once we resume regular operations. Shipments created before today will be received at fulfillment centers.

Please note Selling Partner Support does not have further guidance.
Frequently asked questions
What products am I able to ship to FBA?

We are prioritizing household staples, medical supplies, and other high-demand products coming into our fulfillment centers so that we can more quickly receive, restock, and deliver these products to customers. Most of the products we are accepting at this time are in the below categories.

Baby Products
Health & Household
Beauty & Personal Care (including personal care appliances)
Grocery
Industrial & Scientific
Pet Supplies

Listing products in an inaccurate category is a violation of our listing policies and may result in account suspension.
Is Amazon taking similar steps for retail products?

Yes.
Where does this apply?

This is currently being applied to the US and EU marketplaces.
What if I already have a shipment on its way?

Shipments created before March 17, 2020, will be received.
What happens to my products that are in an Amazon fulfillment center but are not in one of the above categories? Can I still sell this item on Amazon?

Yes, if your product is already on its way and/or in our fulfillment center, you can continue to sell it.
I believe my product is a household staple and/or a medical supply, but I am not able to create a shipment. What should I do?

We determine if a product is a household staple, a medical supply, or both based upon the listing. At this time we are not accepting requests to re-classify listings.
My product is listed within the prioritized categories, but I am not able to create a shipment. What should I do?

If your product is correctly classified and you are not able to create a shipment, then the product in question is not prioritized at this time.
I don’t sell household staples or medical supplies. What is going to happen to my business if I can’t replenish my products?

We are making these temporary adjustments in order to prioritize household staples, medical supplies, and other high-demand products coming into our fulfillment centers so that we can more quickly receive, restock, and ship these products to customers. You may continue to sell products already in our fulfillment centers. This will be in effect March 17, 2020, through April 5, 2020, and we will let you know once we resume regular operations.

We understand this is a change to your business, and we did not take this decision lightly. We are working around the clock to increase capacity and yesterday announced 10 that we are opening 100,000 new full- and part-time positions in our fulfillment centers across the US.
Can I still sell non-household staples or medical supplies through merchant-fulfilled channels?

Yes.
What happens if my Inventory Performance Index (IPI) score falls because of this?

We are working diligently to account for this change in your IPI score and in storage limits for the following quarter.

Gynoid · 17-03-2020 03:56PM

Easton Stale Sack wrote: »

300 ventilators secured on top of our 500 already and expect to secure 100 every week from here on in. Relief to hear that now from the CMO press conference.

That is excellent

Rob A. Bank · 17-03-2020 03:57PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

Not really,

And this is something that the media have to learn to control. if you look in absolute numbers, they will be frightening, but if you look at the number of cases compared with the population, and look at the measures that are being taken.

What the UK are doing is different from Ireland, so maybe people in Ireland will realise that the plan of shutting schools was the right one, when the see big numbers of cases.

Also when the number was around 500, the UK spokesman actually said the true number was probably between 5,000 and 10,000.

Media need to calm down

The UK are royally f*cking up our efforts at containment by allowing the schools in NI to remain open.

The media needs to get very do the very opposite of 'calm down' about that !

Cork Boy 53 · 17-03-2020 03:57PM

theballz wrote: »

I hope to christ when all this is done they close them horrible markets in china.

They have been closed apparently. For how long is anyone`s guess.

CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

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CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) Read OP