CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

moonlighting_1 wrote: »

Italy 2,158 dead out of 27,980 infected. 7.7% mortality rate.

7.7% lads scary stuff
More than 70% of those who have died were men

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/this-is-like-a-war-view-from-italys-coronavirus-frontline

It's more than 27,980 infected. In a place with a population density like northern Italy, there's probably well over 500,000 people infected with it now considering it's been there for 2 months.

The UK goverment were given a report that if they continued down the herd immunity route it would cost 250,000 lives. No wonder they have changed approach.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Where is the evidence that some of the Asian countries have even left the so-called "containment phase"?

From what I am reading and watching, they are all still very aggressively testing, contact tracing and continuing to severely restrict movement of people!

This "phased approach" that we've heard so much about on this side of the world, seems like nonsense to me. Why would you stop trying to aggressively test and contain this thing? The Asians are leading the way, and that's exactly what they seem to be doing!

They will soon have to see the number of cases rise again or never be rid of it. This hasn't even kicked off in places like South Africa yet so when it does it will just take one traveller from there to reinfect China. They can't do quarantine forever.

Deleted User wrote: »

Fire away if the little red book is primed.

Mao?

recyclebin wrote: »

Can anyone explain why the fatality rate in Italy is so high compared to everywhere else?

In my opinion it could be for 2 reasons.

The first is it got into nursing homes at the beginning, average age of death is 80 which supports this.

The second one is that its already widespread in italy with 100s of thousands of people having it but very few actually have been tested so this would explain the thousand or so that have died.

I'm hoping for the second scenario myself.

SuperTortoise wrote: »

So communism!


I know communism sounds great on paper but it does'nt work either.
I'll also add i don't have a solution either.

Capitalism

Communism

Catholicism

Veganism

Islamism

Bolloxism

In theory all these work, the problem with all "isms" is the problem of "bigness"

Small is beautiful, its a great read

Ace2007 wrote: »

Italy has the oldest population in the world or Europe.

They greet people different - kissing etc,

I read somewhere that large % of men smoke - no idea how accurate that is.

There are 66millioin people - in reality only a small % have been tested, i.e. the very sick - while a high % probably have it but not tested.

The vast majority of Italians are crammed into the north of Italy also. Its extremely urbanised with cities running in to cities. Kinda like the UK

threeball wrote: »

Yes but the UK made a balls of it as they had no controls. We put in a system to speed it up or slow it down early. They didn't and still haven't, they just haven't see the effects yet. Todays numbers could be interesting though. We acted early and can now let it work its way through the population whilst protecting the old and vunerable. We won't see a lockdown unless the numbers start to spike and so everyone going to work is likely to see a mild case.

If we don't do that we risk it coming back once we start the airlines again.

If you read the imperial college epidemiology I posted you would understand why what you just posted is not correct. The UK abandoned mitigation not because they made a balls of it, but because data from Italy and elsewhere showed that their health service would not be able to cope.


This graph shows their analysis, the blue curve is their most serious attempt at mitigation and it goes on until August this year.

Anywhere where the blue curve is above that red line on the bottom is health service overload (and as you can see it's not 10% over it's 10 times overloaded) and represents hundreds of thousands of deaths, bluntly - it's a blood bath.

Ireland has done nothing special, if we go for a mitigation strategy then we too will overload our health system massively (a factor of 10 at least) and there will be tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of deaths.

ironingbored wrote: »

My wife is just back from our local SuperValu.

Very busy, families with kids and no one observing adequate social distancing. It's no use staying inside with our families if our supermarkets are petrie dishes!

I contacted them on FB about it and they responded saying they'd be back to me.

Just finished watching Otto e mezzo, a daily primetime-like show on Italian TV. Number 1 message was social distancing. It is working as seen by leveling off of new cases.

That boils my blood.

is_that_so wrote: »

Italians didn't seem to take it too seriously at first.

Sadly I think this is the case. We need to learn from them.

Lord TSC wrote: »

Let’s be real, though. It’s not that they didn’t think anyone would die with their inital response. It is simply that the number they got back was bigger than they had hoped. They were willing to let a significant number of people die. Just not a quarter of a million.

No one is willing to let people die.

No matter what route you take there's going to be casualties.

recyclebin wrote: »

Can anyone explain why the fatality rate in Italy is so high compared to everywhere else?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html

Lord Trollington wrote: »

It seems to me what Ireland is attempting to do is keep cases to a minimum for a number of weeks so a lockdown may or may not be necessary depending on how numbers develop in coming days/weeks.

Ramp up the recruitment of health care staff to record levels..
Ramp up bed numbers and equipment.

Slowly ease off on restrictions and slowly get back to normal knowing that we have the beds, equipment and staff to deal with the potential numbers of infected.

Let the virus run its course using effective treatments and extra health resources to deal with it whilst everything more or less back to normal in terms of businesses schools etc?

Am I right in my analysis of what their game plan may be ?

That's my understanding too.