CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) Read OP

pH · 17-03-2020 02:32AM

faceman wrote: »

Interview in Rolling Stone magazine with Dr. Richard Leman — a public health physician and Chief Medical Officer, Health Security in the US.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

This is the UKs current model where they opt for suppression (R < 1.0)

It envisages 18 months (but still no guarantees) of fighting the virus in waves, admitting that a soon as we leave lockdown another epidemic will arrive shortly thereafter.

They do concede (however late) that this is still better than their original mitigation (R >1.0) strategy (aka 'flattening the curve') which now they've seen the impact this virus has on ICUs they say would result in hundreds of thousands of deaths.

I'm still hearing people talking about 'flattening the curve' - this is implicitly an R>1 strategy (mitigation not suppression) which no western government should be considering. Some people are mistakenly using this phrase when they really mean suppression (R<1) which is causing considerable confusion.

The UK document is quite readable, and anyone interested in reading what the experts think will happen should take a look.

Quantum Erasure · 17-03-2020 02:33AM

threeball wrote: »

People need to be more pragmatic and stop worrying about stuff you can't change. ....

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.

relax, few cans, be grand

Ironicname · 17-03-2020 02:33AM

Cody montana wrote:

Canâ€™t sleep. Still in bed shivering but roasting.

Cody montana wrote:

Iâ€™ve only a dry throat though. Will see if things improve tomorrow and ring the doctor.

I was the same last night. Feel ok today though. Keep us updated

Ironicname · 17-03-2020 02:34AM

Quantum Erasure wrote:

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.

Quantum Erasure wrote:

relax, few cans, be grand

Is that not the Alcoholic Anonymous prayer?

Ha

JP Liz V1 · 17-03-2020 02:35AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Last time we bailed out the banks.

This time the banks must bail us out.

At least we are still in the EU, UK is fcuked

bilston · 17-03-2020 02:35AM

pH wrote: »

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

This is the UKs current model where they opt for suppression (R < 1.0)

It envisages 18 months (but still no guarantees) of fighting the virus in waves, admitting that a soon as we leave lockdown another epidemic will arrive shortly thereafter.

They do concede (however late) that this is still better than their original mitigation (R >1.0) strategy (aka 'flattening the curve') which now they've seen the impact this virus has on ICUs they say would result in hundreds of thousands of deaths.

I'm still hearing people talking about 'flattening the curve' - this is implicitly an R>1 strategy (mitigation not suppression) which no western government should be considering. Some people are mistakenly using this phrase when they really mean suppression (R<1) which is causing considerable confusion.

The UK document is quite readable, and anyone interested in reading what the experts think will happen should take a look.

They were talking about it on Sky News earlier...I had to turn it off as it was quite frightening. The prospect of an 18 month lockdown is just scary. My kids will be half grown up by the time they will see their grandparents again at this rate

Cilldara_2000 · 17-03-2020 02:35AM

ITman88 wrote: »

It’s not so simple PJ.
And I’m not a good enough debater but I will try and articulate.
Let’s use the barmen example.
Some of those people will get jobs back. . . But lots won’t.
Do you think the tourism industry will recover rapidly??
Tourism was a massive industry, the influx of foreign visitors was incredibly lucrative.

1.7 m visitors visited the Guinness storehouse last year mostly foreign visitor’s. They had staffing levels to cope with such. And charged eye watering entrance fees.
Are they going to rehire staff when the don’t have the visitors? No chance.

We won’t see a recovery of tourism for years.
So no not every barman will be in employment.

As regards teachers, they will have jobs but at reduced salaries.

Builders will be required yes, but not as many!!

We can’t bury our heads in the sand here, we need to be prepared for what’s ahead

Tourism is tanked now anyway regardless of any shutdown we implement locally. Who's going to fly in when all the world is shutting down borders? Even if they weren't shutting borders, there'd be few travelling during a major pandemic.

And different industries ebb and flow anyway. My simple example is that you don't see any farriers or blacksmiths anymore. More realistically, we have a huge tech sector here that didn't exist 30/40 years ago. So you lose some and you win some. Ultimately, we will still retain the advantages we had in January - we are the only English speaking country in the EU, we're in the Eurozone and we have a relatively well educated young workforce.

IMO Brexit is still the greater concern in the medium term as regards the economy.

ThePopehimself · 17-03-2020 02:36AM

threeball wrote: »

I hope we don't lose Attenborough to this.

I though of that threeball, I would be devastated (much like yourself and half the planet) I am a sincere fan going way back.

These are the precious people we must protect.Protect them like Treasure.

An Ri rua · 17-03-2020 02:36AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

If you were going to take over Ireland, the 2 best days to do it would be Christmas Day and St Patrick's Day.

Whisshht! The virus could be reading?!

Coveni Covidi Covici Hibernia.

nocoverart · 17-03-2020 02:37AM

Never much into politics but always knew that it’s accepted to hate on whatever party in charge... but fookin hell! actually kind of proud of our Government right now. Loved the way Simon Harris called out the banks and to think I called him “the runt” he’s anything but TBH. Happy St Paddy’s Day!

Adiboo · 17-03-2020 02:38AM

rob316 wrote: »

Your looking at if you were born in that time you may live to 90.
At this time if you reach 90 now it a phenomenal age to reach in any part of the world, I wouldn't know many. What sort of quality of life do you have at that age?

My gran-aunt is 93 closing in on 94 and bombs it up and down the road into town to church and to do her bits every day. She also minds her younger sister with dementia during the day while her sister's daughter (who is a one of the head nurses at local hospital) is at work. She is still loving life and it would be a ****ing shame for this to be the thing to take her.

Cilldara_2000 · 17-03-2020 02:40AM

rob316 wrote: »

Your looking at if you were born in that time you may live to 90.
At this time if you reach 90 now it a phenomenal age to reach in any part of the world, I wouldn't know many. What sort of quality of life do you have at that age?

FFS, that's exactly what I'm not looking at. Read the post you quoted: "UK life expectancy at age 90 years saw little change from figures seen in 2015 to 2017, and remained at 4.1 years for males, and 4.6 years for females. "

What this means is that the average man aged 90 will live for another 4.1 years.

I fecking hate when you go to the bother of looking up reliable stats and people just ignore them or wilfully misinterpret what you write.

maebee · 17-03-2020 02:40AM

iamtony wrote: »

I had the proper flu about a year ago and that sounds exactly how I felt. It was the most sick I have ever been. People dont realise how bad the flu is until they have had a proper one. I was out of work for a month and didnt fully recover for another few months. The pain from coughing and the shivers from the temperate swings are the worst bit after the body aches and pains and not sleeping. I didnt eat for a week solid either so I'd bet flu. Absolute nightmare but maybe not covid 19.

I hear ya, as Ciara Kelly says. Ppl say all the time that they had the flu, probably not, bad cold. As a family, we got the flu about 20 years ago, horrendous,all fevered and shaking, high temperatures etc. That was a flu. This Corona is something else

Hamsterchops · 17-03-2020 02:41AM

Cody montana wrote: »

I dunno.
I was fine one minute and then really bad within an hour.

Please keep us posted, if you can.

Look after yourself & get well soon.

Fr_Dougal · 17-03-2020 02:41AM

Xertz wrote: »

Well yeah we’re looking at a global recession. Them markets have pretty much collapsed and because we’re all so freaked out about the realities of what’s going on with the virus, they’re the least of our concern right now.

I honestly think we are headed for a situation where we are probably going to have to write off debts, print money and just get on with it.

It’s more like the aftermath of a world war than an economic crash, just without the enemies, the violence and the destroyed infrastructure.

I really think we could be looking at a decade or more to recover from this and I don’t just mean Ireland. If anything, we may emerge in better shape than many of our trading partners.

The fact is is global and is impacting big and influential countries also means that it will probably be fixed, unlike when it was just a handful of places in the financial crisis.

So I’m optimistic of a return to some kind of normality eventually but we are in for a potentially very rough ride on this. It’s unprecedented, certainly in a modern economic context, so predicting the outcome is very difficult.

Also some states that are already unstable could just fail due to lack of anything holding them together. I don’t honestly think we are one of those but there are a few, including some rather big ones.

You need to calm down.

bb12 · 17-03-2020 02:41AM

ITman88 wrote: »

It’s not so simple PJ.
And I’m not a good enough debater but I will try and articulate.
Let’s use the barmen example.
Some of those people will get jobs back. . . But lots won’t.
Do you think the tourism industry will recover rapidly??
Tourism was a massive industry, the influx of foreign visitors was incredibly lucrative.

1.7 m visitors visited the Guinness storehouse last year mostly foreign visitor’s. They had staffing levels to cope with such. And charged eye watering entrance fees.
Are they going to rehire staff when the don’t have the visitors? No chance.

We won’t see a recovery of tourism for years.
So no not every barman will be in employment.

As regards teachers, they will have jobs but at reduced salaries.

Builders will be required yes, but not as many!!

It’s not about professions becoming extinct, it’s about demand!!

We can’t bury our heads in the sand here, we need to be prepared for what’s ahead

jeeze people we've already come through a huge global recession just 10 years ago...things were just as bad then...people had it tough, some didn't make it through by committing suicide...but just 10 years later we've all been enjoying life again and even sending all our kids on skiing holidays for midterm break...

life will go on, the economy will pick up again. all you need to do is hold on tight and you can only do that when you're alive. so be glad this virus has not got you or anyone you love yet.

Funkfield · 17-03-2020 02:42AM

Withrax wrote: »

Chloroquine is a derivative of quinine, which is an ingredient in tonic water. Uncancel St Patricks day, gin and tonics for everyone!!

I was thinking this since I heard about it.

Worth a shot anyway!

Hamsterchops · 17-03-2020 02:44AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

Hey there Boaty McBoatface,

Ever hear of these two? David Attenborough / Queen Elizabeth II???

Both well past 90 and loving it!

Would be a crying shame if either of them contracted the virus and died, not forgetting all the other great people all over the world in their 90s....

nocoverart · 17-03-2020 02:44AM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

You need to calm down.

Calm is harder to find than bog roll, ”handitizer” and pasta. Kind of understandable though.

An Ri rua · 17-03-2020 02:45AM

bb12 wrote: »

jeeze people we've already come through a huge global recession just 10 years ago...things were just as bad then...people had it tough, some didn't make it through by committing suicide...but just 10 years later we've all been enjoying life again and even sending all our kids on skiing holidays for midterm break...

life will go on, the economy will pick up again. all you need to do is hold on tight and you can only do that when you're alive. so be glad this virus has not got you or anyone you love yet.

The financial timebomb that had been exponentially increased since the 2008 crisis has now been lit. The levels of corporate and government debt are astounding. The fall in corporate revenue and follow-on tax receipts is the perfect storm.
If this plays out, it will be far worse than 2008.

BorneTobyWilde · 17-03-2020 02:48AM

Covid-19 is going down. We're all at war now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWuQ96-vx_U

ITman88 · 17-03-2020 02:49AM

bb12 wrote: »

jeeze people we've already come through a huge global recession just 10 years ago...things were just as bad then...people had it tough, some didn't make it through by committing suicide...but just 10 years later we've all been enjoying life again and even sending all our kids on skiing holidays for midterm break...

life will go on, the economy will pick up again. all you need to do is hold on tight and you can only do that when you're alive. so be glad this virus has not got you or anyone you love yet.

I am very glad this virus has not got me and anyone I love yet.

How were things just as bad in the last recession???

ThePopehimself · 17-03-2020 02:49AM

V8 Interceptor · 17-03-2020 02:51AM

A reminder of what the clowns told us just recently:

-“You are extremely unlikely to catch novel coronavirus from someone in Ireland,” Joe Ryan, HSE national director of services, told a briefing on Thursday.

While there have been 10 confirmed cases in the EU, the likelihood of further cases being brought into Europe is moderate, he said.

-“What we are striving to do is to try to ensure that if we do have a case here, we will minimise, and hopefully make sure there is no spread of the disease.”

- All Irish hospitals with emergency departments are in a position to provide isolation facilities in the event of cases occurring here, Mr Ryan said. If there were a large number of cases, patients would be cohorted in wards, under the plans made by the health service.

- Dr Kelleher said the health service has been planning “for a long time” for the kind of threat posed by the virus. An emergency planning group within the HSE has been meeting three times a week since the crisis erupted and is also engaging with the Department’s National Public Health Emergency Team.

My favourite...

Officials advised people who think they might be affected to phone their GP first and talk to them rather than going to the surgery. The relevant criteria are respiratory symptoms within 14 days of returning from Wuhan in China, or close contact with someone with the infection.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/risk-of-coronavirus-in-ireland-remains-moderate-says-hse-1.4156713

yerwanthere123 · 17-03-2020 02:51AM

The government forecast of 15,000 by the end of March is chilling. Is our growth rate less, more or on a par with where Italy were at this stage?

ITman88 · 17-03-2020 02:52AM

An Ri rua wrote: »

The financial timebomb that had been exponentially increased since the 2008 crisis has now been lit. The levels of corporate and government debt are astounding. The fall in corporate revenue and follow-on tax receipts is the perfect storm.
If this plays out, it will be far worse than 2008.

Exactly this.

Strumms · 17-03-2020 02:52AM

nocoverart wrote: »

Never much into politics but always knew that it’s accepted to hate on whatever party in charge... but fookin hell! actually kind of proud of our Government right now. Loved the way Simon Harris called out the banks and to think I called him “the runt” he’s anything but TBH. Happy St Paddy’s Day!

Save your praise and hold off for ‘action’... they need to put the banks to the pin of their collars. Emergency legislation if possible, temporarily nationalize all financial institutions and have them on standby to bail out the nation.

If they refused, jail each executive for 10 years...

Cilldara_2000 · 17-03-2020 02:52AM

An Ri rua wrote: »

The financial timebomb that had been exponentially increased since the 2008 crisis has now been lit. The levels of corporate and government debt are astounding. The fall in corporate revenue and follow-on tax receipts is the perfect storm.
If this plays out, it will be far worse than 2008.

The economic effects are more unpredictable that the spread of the virus.

And a big shake up of this current debt laden western economy will be no harm in the long term. We need to see real growth in wages in the big economies instead of the stagnation that has existed for the last 40 years for most workers while those at the top taking an ever increasing slice of the pie.

Xertz · 17-03-2020 02:53AM

ITman88 wrote: »

I am very glad this virus has not got me and anyone I love yet.

How were things just as bad in the last recession???

The last recession was just a financial bubble bursting and Ireland was in a group of outliers, all of which were hit badly.

This is global. It’s very different in that respect and it’s also a human tragedy unfolding too.

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 17-03-2020 02:54AM

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

A reminder of what the clowns told us just recently:

-“You are extremely unlikely to catch novel coronavirus from someone in Ireland,” Joe Ryan, HSE national director of services, told a briefing on Thursday.

While there have been 10 confirmed cases in the EU, the likelihood of further cases being brought into Europe is moderate, he said.

-“What we are striving to do is to try to ensure that if we do have a case here, we will minimise, and hopefully make sure there is no spread of the disease.”

- All Irish hospitals with emergency departments are in a position to provide isolation facilities in the event of cases occurring here, Mr Ryan said. If there were a large number of cases, patients would be cohorted in wards, under the plans made by the health service.

- Dr Kelleher said the health service has been planning “for a long time” for the kind of threat posed by the virus. An emergency planning group within the HSE has been meeting three times a week since the crisis erupted and is also engaging with the Department’s National Public Health Emergency Team.

My favourite...

Officials advised people who think they might be affected to phone their GP first and talk to them rather than going to the surgery. The relevant criteria are respiratory symptoms within 14 days of returning from Wuhan in China, or close contact with someone with the infection.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/risk-of-coronavirus-in-ireland-remains-moderate-says-hse-1.4156713

And then they proceed not to test anyone who has symptoms until the following Thursday, a week after the community transmission was already apparent in two Cork hospitals and obviously happening in Limerick too because of the GP they told to go back to work. Consider this for once second - we still don't have the testing results for anyone from that initiative yet. They have them, but we don't yet.

CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

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CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) Read OP