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CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

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Comments

  • #3452
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,649 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    BorneTobyWilde wrote: »
    Not at all. I was expecting 300

    Its probably double that and more, in reality. The figures are pretty meaningless. Most people don't get tested


  • #3453
    tigger123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,593 ✭✭✭tigger123


    pjohnson wrote: »
    If we copy Italy economy is fúcked anyway.


    Life is more important than economy.

    The economy supports life. It supports the most vulnerable in our society. This is not about keeping rich people rich, its about keeping jobs and employment.


  • #3454
    Hobgoblin11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    This virus is a boon time for groceries, I've never bought so much groceries in my life

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • #3455
    walshb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 58,516 ✭✭✭✭walshb


    Anyone have rough idea 💡 n how many tests they would be conducting today?


  • #3456
    Lundstram
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,129 ✭✭✭Lundstram


    pjohnson wrote: »
    If we copy Italy economy is fúcked anyway.


    Life is more important than economy.
    They're trying to find a balance. People shouting for a lockdown every five minutes don't realise it will kill our economy dead in a very short space of time.

    Over-reacting is not going to help, let curve even out.


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  • #3457
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,025 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Sittingpretty wrote: »
    I’m going to take it that schools won’t reopen until at the very least new term September?

    Yes September at the earliest. This isn’t going away for a long long time.


  • #3458
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,276 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Ran a few numbers through excel. I wont bore you by posting the inner workings

    30% daily increase if sustained even for 3 weeks means 202,000 cases by 10th April.
    Slight reduction to a doubling every 3 days means 87,000 cases on the same date.
    If we can get that down to doubling every 5 days (which by the way is still faster than the original Chinese forecast of every 6) there's less than 10,000 cases on the 10th of April

    FLATTEN THE CURVE.


  • #3459
    RandomName2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,575 ✭✭✭RandomName2


    pjohnson wrote: »
    Life is more important than economy.

    That's true.

    Besides which one follows the other.

    If Europe and America had made correct provisions initially none of this would currently be necessary. Looking for short term economic gain leads to longer term economic woes.

    A complete collapse of the health service, months of semi-lockdown, and thousands of deaths in order to avoid proper measures would not ultimately help the economy.


  • #3460
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,117 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Holohan saying 355 cases per day expected by Sunday


  • #3461
    Clarence Boddiker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 776 ✭✭✭Clarence Boddiker


    fritzelly wrote: »
    30 male, 24 female

    Just Males and Females?
    All the Non Binaries, Gender Non Conforming, Two Spirits, Intersex etc types seem to be immune..lucky them

    I'll get me coat..


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  • #3462
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,447 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Sittingpretty wrote: »
    I’m going to take it that schools won’t reopen until at the very least new term September?

    Quite likely at this stage.


  • #3463
    littlemac1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭littlemac1980


    Lundstram wrote: »
    They're trying to find a balance. People shouting for a lockdown every five minutes don't realise it will kill our economy dead in a very short space of time.

    Over-reacting is not going to help, let curve even out.

    Likelihood is the economy is goosed anyway due to impending global depression.


  • #3464
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Today's rate will give half a million infected in a month...
    Actually he just said that they will only project out to next Sunday and up to 355 cases. Numbers after that may not be accurate.


  • #3465
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,336 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Today's rate will give half a million infected in a month...

    Not necessarily : viruses are hugely unpredictable and can hit a peak and then level off.

    If we went with the exponential growth theory, all 8bn people on the planet would get the virus within months.


  • #3466
    Lundstram
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,129 ✭✭✭Lundstram


    I really hope there's massive consequences for China once all this dies down. The absoute carnage they've caused with their disgusting eating habits.


  • #3467
    EDit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 819 ✭✭✭EDit


    I knew there had to be some benefits of living in the midlands, seemingly no cases in the middle yet


  • #3468
    pjohnson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,052 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    RandomName2 wrote: »
    That's true.

    Besides which one follows the other.

    If Europe and America had made correct provisions initially none of this would currently be necessary. Looking for short term economic gain leads to longer term economic woes.

    A complete collapse of the health service, months of semi-lockdown, and thousands of deaths in order to avoid proper measures would not ultimately help the economy.

    Apparently its better to destroy to health service and kill off a few hundred so long as people keep their jobs :)


  • #3469
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    tigger123 wrote: »
    The economy supports life. It supports the most vulnerable in our society. This is not about keeping rich people rich, its about keeping jobs and employment.

    Countries recover from wars, this feels awful and is going to be horrible. But it’s happening everywhere. Our economy will recover, just going to be very uncomfortable for awhile.


  • #3470
    Hobgoblin11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Ran a few numbers through excel. I wont bore you by posting the inner workings

    30% daily increase if sustained even for 3 weeks means 202,000 cases by 10th April.
    Slight reduction to a doubling every 3 days means 87,000 cases on the same date.
    If we can get that down to doubling every 5 days (which by the way is still faster than the original Chinese forecast of every 6) there's less than 10,000 cases on the 10th of April

    FLATTEN THE CURVE.

    looks like we missed the boat compared to China

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • #3471
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    In fairness the cost of living is a lot cheaper in the UK (apart from London)

    Not really. I lived in Not London a decade ago. The south of England but not London or even close. It wasn’t one of the Home counties. I was disappointed at how similar the cost of living was to Ireland and the salaries were lower too. Wales, Northern England and Scotland have lower costs of living alright but have salaries to match the lower cost of living.


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  • #3472
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Irelands one of the last in the world to declare their count today
    Over 12k today, the highest daily total worldwide in the pandemic


  • #3473
    05eaftqbrs9jlh
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,104 ✭✭✭05eaftqbrs9jlh


    Wibbs wrote: »
    No offence TC, but maybe "just stop" and think yourself because you're posting some "clueless" material yourself.

    1) That link to the CT lung damage is of patients during the progress of the disease. It's not a month after. Some may have reduced lung function, but we don't know how many or how severe. We simply don't know yet.
    Do I seriously have to post all the same links with this level of regularity.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/futurism.com/coronavirus-patients-lung-damage/amp

    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-survivors-may-suffer-from-reduced-lung-function/amp/

    Just because you don't like the reality, doesn't mean you can be selective about the facts. If people don't realise that this can damage their lungs, they will be complacent. As somebody who has had a bad asthma attack and ended up on a respirator, it is extremely important to me that people understand that lying gasping for air is not a nice feeling and the fact that it will become one of the features of death for many needs to be known.

    Just as an experiment, hold your breath there until you can't anymore. Now when you really need to breathe, don't. Imagine suffocating. It is absolutely sh!t craic.
    2) From what we know of other coronoviruses in humans(and there are a lot of them) people do acquire immunity after infection. That includes MERS and SARS. To that strain at least and if the virus doesn't mutate much, some immunity to new strains. Again it's early days and talk of limited or no immunity is down to people apparently becoming reinfected, but more and more it looks more like they have a relapse from the original infection because they haven' fully cleared the virus from their bodies. Again we simply don't know yet
    Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. The virus has various mutations already. We simply don't know the contrary either, but the poster I quoted was saying that herd immunity is the "only way" we can approach this. It is a completely stupid view which would only be held by somebody who had sufficient distance from the consequences as to not consider the full ramifications, i.e. Hundreds of thousands of people (250,000 in the UK at their current estimate) needlessly suffocating to death without medical assistance.

    So excuse whatever my perceived ignorance was.


  • #3474
    Lundstram
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,129 ✭✭✭Lundstram


    littlemac1980 wrote: »
    Likelihood is the economy is goosed anyway due to impending global depression.
    It's not goosed yet. But a month long lockdown will do that.


  • #3475
    rob316
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,671 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    pjohnson wrote: »
    If we copy Italy the economy is utterly fúcked anyway. The world economy is fùcked anyway. Just a question how many do we want to kill off.


    Life is more important than economy.

    What is the point of surviving if their is nothing to go back to. What Leo is doing is right a partial lockdown gradually shutting down more and more. The economic reality might eventually outweigh the death, that's not been cold, its reality.


  • #3476
    forgodssake
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 790 ✭✭✭forgodssake


    Anyone else feel like we are living in a virtual reality or some kind of nightmare at the moment. Life has changed so so much over the last few days ...and become so precious to those of us who think we invincible.


  • #3477
    MD1990
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,740 ✭✭✭✭MD1990


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Ran a few numbers through excel. I wont bore you by posting the inner workings

    30% daily increase if sustained even for 3 weeks means 202,000 cases by 10th April.
    Slight reduction to a doubling every 3 days means 87,000 cases on the same date.
    If we can get that down to doubling every 5 days (which by the way is still faster than the original Chinese forecast of every 6) there's less than 10,000 cases on the 10th of April

    FLATTEN THE CURVE.

    they wont have 202,000 tests done by 10th april.

    although probably will be that many cases


  • #3478
    horgan_p
    Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 2,614 Mod ✭✭✭✭horgan_p


    So are the numbers released each night allowing for people that have recovered ?

    i.e. if 50 new cases, but 30 recover then its net +20 ?


  • #3479
    fisgon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,747 ✭✭✭fisgon


    Don't see what the endgame is here.....

    How does it end, if we enforce serious lockdowns in every European country?

    The rate of increase goes down, we go back to normal, and it all kicks off again.

    Cannot see this stopping until we get a vaccine.


  • #3480
    GolfNut33
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 352 ✭✭GolfNut33


    54 is about right for the 30% prejected increase per day. Should be about 70 tomorrow. These numbers are predicted and the measures we're taking now won't be seen for a week or two.


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  • #3481
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Lundstram wrote: »
    They're trying to find a balance. People shouting for a lockdown every five minutes don't realise it will kill our economy dead in a very short space of time.

    Over-reacting is not going to help, let curve even out.
    The initial 140K laid off is enough warning of what could happen.


This discussion has been closed.
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