CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) Read OP

amacca · 16-03-2020 01:20PM

pH wrote: »

Here's the problem with this:
Ireland has around 250 ICU beds. But let's be generous and say that somehow we get that number up to 500 and they aren't needed for anything else apart from cov-19 cases. Let's also be extremely optimistic and say that each person needs the bed for only 10 day, this means that a theoretically highly stretched Irish health service could cope with 50 new severe covid-19 cases per day (in a highly unrealistic scenario where the beds are being used for just this)

We also know that that for a population like we have somewhere around 5% of cases will need this type of intensive care. Which means that again, in theory we could have 1,000 people a day being infected and 'barely' cope. This would still lead to around 1% 'unavoidable' mortality rate, but we as a society would not be letting anyone die unnecessarily.

So estimates for herd immunity vary, but 70% is not unreasonable ie. 3,400,000 people based on the current pop of Ireland. So you can see that those advocating 'flattening the curve' to keep corona virus below the capacity of the health service, if they were being honest would be talking about a period of 3,400 days (ie just short of 10 years) until this 'herd immunity' is reached. This would be 10 years of continual lock-down (slow virus transmission scenarios) which is clearly nonsense.

What about keeping as many people alive as possible until a vaccine is rushed through or effective anit-viral treatments are found?.....one of the problems I have with the UK approach is how do they know their health service wont be overwhelmed in the short term with their strategy leading to many needless deaths....that "scientific" advice better be bang on........at least trying to slow the spread of thing seems correct intuitively...they mess this up you could see serious social unrest over there.......to me it seems like isolating the over seventies was an afterthought

I'd imagine there will be a lot of emphasis and investment involved in both vaccine and treatments that would see them get through testing/trial and certification much much faster than usual?

Rob A. Bank · 16-03-2020 01:20PM

deathbomber wrote: »

Vaccine will be available next year, i suspect even earlier, herd immunity won't kick in at all. Slowing it down is buying time, it may even be suppressed altogether in a few months, but every country needs go on lockdown

Agreed !

But we are trying to limit the number of infected people in order to help our older and more fragile citizens.

Meanwhile the UK are trying to infect 60% of their population on the other side of the border, chasing this mythical 'Herd Immunity'.

Unbelievable... the virus does not respect borders.

Ba$tards !

Corkgirl20 · 16-03-2020 01:20PM

celt262 wrote: »

Could that be a tactic to justify a shut down once all the flights are back from Spain etc on Thursday?

Good point I would imagine you are correct on that one.

Although not sure if all weekends results will be on Wednesday or just Saturdays.
Possibly means that tonight’s results are from Friday's testing ? Just speculating here.

dougm1970 · 16-03-2020 01:21PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Anyone over 80 needing hospital treatment basically gets a death sentence at the moment in Italy.

yea, seemingly the doctors have been instructed to prioritise younger patients with it.

circadian · 16-03-2020 01:22PM

dougm1970 wrote: »

godson / nephew of mine...16...very sick today...sick since Saturday night but awful bad today....huge fever and coughing...dry cough too....seemingly someone coming out to test him today and it'll be two days for results
a young fella whos never sick ..not a pick of fat on him.. does a lot of boxing and football.
facetimed him there and was shocked how he looked, face swollen and sweaty...hes in bed and has no energy at all.

may not be it at all....but its just hes never sick and has these symptoms at this time.

his family have been told to self isolate.

Hope he pulls through all fine. I heard a GP from the UK on the radio yesterday. She had contracted the virus while in America a few weeks ago. She described what the illness was like. Basically her body felt on fire, the cough hurt and she was just bedridden with a complete lack of appetite. She said it was hard to describe as the symptoms were similar to seasonal flu but much more intense. She said the worst of it lasted 3 days and she still has muscle aches for a few days afterwards.

She didn't suffer respiratory issues that some others do but what she described would be what's considered mild. Largely because we have absolutely no immunity to it then even the fittest and healthiest are going to feel absolutely awful if they catch it.

regedit · 16-03-2020 01:22PM

dougm1970 wrote: »

godson / nephew of mine...16...very sick today...sick since Saturday night but awful bad today....huge fever and coughing...dry cough too....seemingly someone coming out to test him today and it'll be two days for results
a young fella whos never sick ..not a pick of fat on him.. does a lot of boxing and football.
facetimed him there and was shocked how he looked, face swollen and sweaty...hes in bed and has no energy at all.

may not be it at all....but its just hes never sick and has these symptoms at this time.

his family have been told to self isolate.

Hope it's not covid-19 but if it is, the fact that he's young and fit may help. Plus teh fact that the services should not be over-stretched at these early days.

Bob24 · 16-03-2020 01:22PM

Scotty # wrote: »

GO AWAY!!!!

Personal source which I trust. Consistant with publicly available information. And it is easy to check my track record on Covid-19 threads as not being the type to spread incorrect information and having understood the situation at the early stages (which is why I posted this, I would;t have without a previous track record). But now people are free to believe it or not (I am pretty sure the measures I mention will be confirmed by official announcements in France within the next 2 days - probably at the presidential speech on TV tonight).

Nibs05 · 16-03-2020 01:22PM

Red for Danger wrote: »

About food

Its fine saying supply lines are good but people are going to be stocking up so they will not have to leave home for the worst 10/15 days.
This worst 10/15 day period may not start until another 10/15 days??? So a family of 5 are gonna need a lot of grub to be sure to get through the worst period. Also families are only now realising how much the actually eat when everyone is home for every meal...

There will be no shortage of food, even today in Rome a market was taking place, shops are open, there are just procedures like safe distances etc, everything will be ok.

dh1985 · 16-03-2020 01:23PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Total opposite here at the moment H, once they set foot in the door of the shop with the whole family in tow it's a free for all. Tannoy announcements are being made to remind people to stay 2m apart but no one is doing it. People getting as close as they can to staff to ask questions etc. Coughing everywhere without covering their mouth, everything they are not supposed to be doing basically.

Where is this you are talking about. Because it's nothing I have seen

NIMAN · 16-03-2020 01:23PM

Red for Danger wrote: »

About food

Its fine saying supply lines are good but people are going to be stocking up so they will not have to leave home for the worst 10/15 days.
This worst 10/15 day period may not start until another 10/15 days??? So a family of 5 are gonna need a lot of grub to be sure to get through the worst period. Also families are only now realising how much the actually eat when everyone is home for every meal...

Someone will still be allowed out to shop even during the worst period.

dougm1970 · 16-03-2020 01:23PM

circadian wrote: »

Hope he pulls through all fine. I heard a GP from the UK on the radio yesterday. She had contracted the virus while in America a few weeks ago. She described what the illness was like. Basically her body felt on fire, the cough hurt and she was just bedridden with a complete lack of appetite. She said it was hard to describe as the symptoms were similar to seasonal flu but much more intense. She said the worst of it lasted 3 days and she still has muscle aches for a few days afterwards.

She didn't suffer respiratory issues that some others do but what she described would be what's considered mild. Largely because we have absolutely no immunity to it then even the fittest and healthiest are going to feel absolutely awful if they catch it.

yea...hes same...wont eat either.
thanks for reply.

UrbanFret · 16-03-2020 01:24PM

Cupatae wrote: »

Is the country going into complete shut down for two weeks or is that all nonsense ?

For the last time even if they wanted to do it they don't have the numbers. It will be all be about self discipline.

paul71 · 16-03-2020 01:24PM

Red for Danger wrote: »

About food

Its fine saying supply lines are good but people are going to be stocking up so they will not have to leave home for the worst 10/15 days.
This worst 10/15 day period may not start until another 10/15 days??? So a family of 5 are gonna need a lot of grub to be sure to get through the worst period. Also families are only now realising how much the actually eat when everyone is home for every meal...

And supply lines still not interrupted. I heard nothing about interruptions to harvest last July August September which is the wheat we are eating now.

Cows are still being milked this morning. Cattle are still eating grass so whats the problem?

CIARAN_BOYLE · 16-03-2020 01:24PM

NIMAN wrote: »

Someone will still be allowed out to shop even during the worst period.

I think the point is that they want to be able to avoid the shops.

otnomart · 16-03-2020 01:25PM

Macron will speak at 20.00
Some papers report that he will impose in France a 45 days lockdown and a curfew at 18.00.

pH · 16-03-2020 01:27PM

Nermal wrote: »

Sound mathematics.

But I think 5% ICU from the low-risk population is a significant overestimate.

Regardless - we need to get the number of ICU beds up to 5,000, not 500. At the same time, controls on the low-risk population need to be relaxed, and enforced more strongly on the high-risk population.

Given the age and health make-up of our population overall 5% requiring ICU treatment is a reasonable estimate. But I agree if you could just get the low-risk population infected in a short period of time while strongly protecting older and vulnerable people at the same time, this would seem at least technically a valid way of solving the problem, except it's political suicide to propose it, as we can see with people's response to the UK proposals.

kalkat2002 · 16-03-2020 01:28PM

No one is gonna die here due to famine...
A lot of people accumulated fat along years...

NegativeCreep · 16-03-2020 01:28PM

Nibs05 wrote: »

There will be no shortage of food, even today in Rome a market was taking place, shops are open, there are just procedures like safe distances etc, everything will be ok.

If you’re self isolating because someone at home has the virus you CAN’T go to any market or shop. That’s why people are stocking up.

Loughc · 16-03-2020 01:28PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Unless you are in an essential service you may not be for too much longer.

I deffo work for a non essential company but we have been told we are remaining open no matter what and that lockdown can’t legally stop us from closing.

Thelonious Monk · 16-03-2020 01:28PM

Red for Danger wrote: »

About food

Its fine saying supply lines are good but people are going to be stocking up so they will not have to leave home for the worst 10/15 days.
This worst 10/15 day period may not start until another 10/15 days??? So a family of 5 are gonna need a lot of grub to be sure to get through the worst period. Also families are only now realising how much the actually eat when everyone is home for every meal...

You will still be allowed go to the shops ffs, even in Spain and Italy people are still allowed buy food.

facehugger99 · 16-03-2020 01:30PM

pH wrote: »

Given the age and health make-up of our population overall 5% requiring ICU treatment is a reasonable estimate. But I agree if you could just get the low-risk population infected in a short period of time while strongly protecting older and vulnerable people at the same time, this would seem at least technically a valid way of solving the problem, except it's political suicide to propose it, as we can see with people's response to the UK proposals.

That's the big worry - our politicians are more worried how the proposals are going to play with the facebook morons and social media experts.

The UK are actually making the tough decisions that will benefit them longterm.

Nibs05 · 16-03-2020 01:31PM

NegativeCreep wrote: »

If you’re self isolating because someone at home has the virus you CAN’T go to any market or shop. That’s why people are stocking up.

There are people offering services to help out in these situations, someone else can go and leave the food by the door then call to say it’s there.

eggy81 · 16-03-2020 01:31PM

I work as an electrician currently on a very large project in clonee. We would be indoors but not necessarily in very close proximity to each other. No sign of site shut down yet. My partner is in remission for lymphoma and her mother has breast cancer. Partner went through heavy heavy treatment in second half of 2018.

For anyone with knowledge of these big sites what would you do. I'm very nervous of going back there particularly with the toilets and canteen situations. They are good by site standards but still so many people using them.

ZX7R · 16-03-2020 01:31PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Can I just say shutdown is NOT a bad thing!!!

I am in spain, working from home, can go out to shops and get things, panic buying seems to have passed, plenty of food in the shops - people are being socially responsible , most shops only allow one or 2 in at a time people q with good spacing outside the shop.

It is awful for the cabin fever and mental health but this has to slow the spread.
People should be happy when Ireland announce it - not panic!

I was reading your post earlier hope you dad stays well,in Ireland at the moment is a real attitude that it's grand,if people just followed there would be no need for a complete shoot down.
As far as the economy goes I've stopped worrying also.
The ECB and EU are responding more rationally than say America.
Reacting now to the virus and the current situation rather than save the stock market.
There going down the road or stimulus to reboot the European economy when we have flatten the curve in all the union

Professor Moriarty · 16-03-2020 01:32PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

That's the big worry - our politicians are more worried how the proposals are going to play with the facebook morons and social media experts.

The UK are actually making the tough decisions that will benefit them longterm.

What decisions and how will they benefit the UK in the long term?

Antares35 · 16-03-2020 01:32PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

No one is talking about not treating the old and unproductive. The Irish Medical Council has issued advise to doctors that if the medical services are overwhelmed patients more likely to survive may have to be prioritised.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-patients-with-best-chance-of-survival-to-be-prioritised-1.4203716%3fmode=amp

The Spanish equivalents have had similar discussions or if they have not will have to do it informally on the front line. It has happened to a great extent already in Italy.

Patients more likely to survive are likely to be younger ones. I think they are better off taking their chances with the Spanish health system.

ShayNanigan · 16-03-2020 01:32PM

Looks like Temple Bar is pretty lively again.

pH · 16-03-2020 01:34PM

amacca wrote: »

What about keeping as many people alive as possible until a vaccine is rushed through or effective anit-viral treatments are found?.....one of the problems I have with the UK approach is how do they know their health service wont be overwhelmed in the short term with their strategy leading to many needless deaths....that "scientific" advice better be bang on........at least trying to slow the spread of thing seems correct intuitively...they mess this up you could see serious social unrest over there.......to me it seems like isolating the over seventies was an afterthought

I'd imagine there will be a lot of emphasis and investment involved in both vaccine and treatments that would see them get through testing/trial and certification much much faster than usual?

The best guess would be a workable vaccine sometime early 2021, with perhaps discoveries related to current anti-viral drugs that may significantly reduce the mortality rate for at risk patients.

Given it's going to take about 6 weeks of serious lockdown to eradicate an outbreak of this in a region, and that once you relax the lockdown and travel restrictions it's likely to be back within another 6 weeks, it looks like the 'best-case' scenario is a 6 week on and off lockdowns until early 2020 when hopefully mass vaccination can take place.

amacca · 16-03-2020 01:34PM

pH wrote: »

except it's political suicide to propose it, as we can see with people's response to the UK proposals.

In fairness given their track record for the past couple of years and seemingly every other country around them pursuing a different containment/delay based strategy its hard to trust them

I think even if it works they are ****ing everyone around them up ..... to get some sort of headstart on economic recovery......I cant see much international goodwill in the short term anyway....if they follow a divergent path then I could see little travel or trade (over and above essential) taking place between UK and neighbours- where is the economic recovery then.....I think its better to be with the herd than going for herd immunity alone.

If it doesnt work my heart goes out to their citizens that could possibly die needlessly over boneheaded nubris/arrogance/pride

that "scientific" advice better be bang on! and even if its correct a couple of months or more have to elapse to prove it....thats a long long time

16-03-2020 01:34PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What decisions and how will they benefit the UK in the long term?

https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371651649538

CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

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CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) Read OP