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CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

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  • #722
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    sideswipe wrote: »
    The winner of the Bath Half Marathon was Paul Pollock, an Irish Doctor and elite runner. You'd think he'd have more sense :mad:
    Changing his name by deed poll to Paul Pillock seems apt. Fcuking moron.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #723
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    a_squirrelman wrote: »
    A man from the Restaurants Association on Radio 1 now saying "we want to close but the government need to tell us to close"

    What?

    It's to do with insurance, costs, contracts and all sorts of things. Without an official order to close, they end up absorbing a lot of costs.

    The government needs to actually make hard decisions on these things otherwise, a lot of companies will go to the wall trying to close voluntarily and it's not out of meanness.

    You're talking about very small, often very vulnerable businesses.


  • #724
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    Blueshoe wrote: »
    Their economy took a whopping though. Down up to 25% in some sectors such as manufacturing. They have been lauded for releasing the figures. Normally they keep the info to themselves.

    Our theoretical GDP could well be fairly stable or even go up due to demands for certain pharma products, fiddling around with IP locations and so on, but the real economy here is very likely to be in big trouble.

    Also we're doing fairly well with a lot of services sector and IT companies, finance, fintech etc etc and so on that can actually work around these disruptions. Big manufacturing economies are in a lot more trouble.

    Germany for example could really take a big hit.


  • #725
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Less of a safety net as well for small business owners? Something about not getting the same unemployment benefits?


  • #726
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Less of a safety net as well for small business owners? Something about not getting the same unemployment benefits?

    There's generally very little safety net if you own a business, although there are benefits to it too. However, in terms of social welfare entitlements you're usually in a situation where you'd be on means tested allowances rather than accrued benefits through PRSI. Although, that has improved a bit in the last budget.

    I'd be worried about small businesses, micro businesses, one-man-band type operations and also a lot of people who are on extremely precarious contracts / work casually.

    There are a lot of people out there who are business owners and work as freelancers and so on who are really not very well off at all.

    They'll definitely need some kind of access to support for a while until they can get back to where they were or do something else.

    Realistically though, we're looking at a global recession. There's no way around that.


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  • #727
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,039 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Probably insurance.

    Insurance won't cover this

    Some of the biggest companies in the world are not insured for this


  • #728
    pjohnson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,024 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    Tordelback wrote: »
    In China the Cheltenham crowd would have been welded into the RDS Simmonscourt hall and left there. It's not comparable.

    We should be so lucky to do that :(


  • #729
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,991 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Xertz wrote: »
    Our theoretical GDP could well be fairly stable or even go up due to demands for certain pharma products and so on, but the real economy here is very likely to be in big trouble.

    Also we're doing fairly well with a lot of services sector and IT companies, finance, fintech etc etc and so on that can actually work around these disruptions. Big manufacturing economies are in a lot more trouble.

    Germany for example could really take a big hit.
    Who is going to buy IT services when everyone else has lost their jobs?


  • #730
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    The only thing I could say that may be a positive on the economic side of it is that the whole world is in the same boat. The US, EU, UK, Japan, (the entire West) and also China and most of Asia are all in the same mess.

    If it were just one or two countries, audacious mountain moving type fiscal approaches wouldn't happen. They will for this.

    There's going to have to be some kind of massive global fiscal restart, and I would suspect they will just allow the Fed, the ECB and others to pull various stunts to 'create' money and alter the rules of the game.

    I think we're really back at the post WWII Bretton Woods type scenario where the global economy's going to have to be rebuilt.

    This thing is potentially as disruptive as world war, albeit without the horrors of an actual war. We'll still have our infrastructure and the enemy is a virus. So, nobody's invaded, attacked, maimed, carpet bombed or nuked anyone. Although there'll be a death toll.


  • #731
    ILoveYourVibes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,215 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    Totally going to change the way we live tho.


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  • #732
    Ohmeha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,176 ✭✭✭Ohmeha


    My DART station totally quiet this morning


  • #733
    Tordelback
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 677 ✭✭✭Tordelback


    Blueshoe wrote: »
    Their economy took a whopping though. Down up to 25% in some sectors such as manufacturing. They have been lauded for releasing the figures. Normally they keep the info to themselves.

    Indeed. But 25% is going to seem like a momentary flutter compared to what's going to happen here and in most of the EU in the coming months. The modern economy and financial world is such a delicate confidence trick that it can't absorb this unprecedented shock. States are really going to have to prove their worth working out alternatives to get us through.


  • #734
    drunkmonkey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,032 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    a_squirrelman wrote: »
    A man from the Restaurants Association on Radio 1 now saying "we want to close but the government need to tell us to close"

    What?

    That's the problem a lot of business have business interuption insurance and aren't covered unless there orderd to close by the government or local authorities. I'm in the same boat. The louder the public scream for it to happen the better if they want a business to come back and work in.


  • #735
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    A good graphic on this page, showing the effects that intervention and it's timing have on the bell shaped curve of infection.
    Keep scrolling down to see the interactive graphic and move the yellow line to change the timing

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-trump-response.html?action=click&module=moreIn&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&action=click&module=MoreInSection&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&contentCollection=Opinion

    An early aggressive intervention has an enormous effect.

    (The figures are for America, but the lessons are broadly applicable to any country.)


  • #736
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    That's the problem a lot of business have business interuption insurance and aren't covered unless there orderd to close by the government or local authorities. I'm in the same boat. The louder the public scream for it to happen the better if they want a business to come back and work in.

    There's also issues with things like business rates, and other things that could be paused for the duration of this and really need to be as there's no revenue to pay them from and there's no point in bankrupting small businesses that are viable and would bounce back.


  • #737
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Xertz wrote: »
    No, I'm being perfectly serious. I've connections out there and I could just take a couple of years off and go.

    It looks to me like Europe's going to be a complete mess and there's going to be a massive recession. The US isn't going to be a hell of a lot better or could be even worse. So, why not?

    I'll probably lose my job anyway.

    I've been through the 2008 crash and barely got out the other side, so just looking at options.

    IMO if you have that option then go for it. Things are going to be really bad in this part of the world for a long time to come.


  • #738
    sligeach
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,902 ✭✭✭✭sligeach


    They've closed the pubs because some people were irresponsible over the weekend, but whatever, punish the masses for the sins of a few(not that it affects me, I'm off the drink). And yet here we are Monday morning and people are still being crammed like sardines onto train carriages. From the HSE:

    • Indoor mass gatherings of 100 people or more should be cancelled. FAIL

    • Avoid close contact with people - keep a distance of 2 metres (6.5 feet) between you and others. FAIL

    • Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve when you cough and sneeze. FAIL

    • Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces. FAIL

    • Avoid spending more than 15 minutes face-to-face contact. FAIL

    Where's the Government intervention for these failures?


  • #739
    limnam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,342 ✭✭✭limnam


    murphaph wrote: »
    Who is going to buy IT services when everyone else has lost their jobs?

    The same people who bought them during the last bust.


  • #740
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    murphaph wrote: »
    Who is going to buy IT services when everyone else has lost their jobs?

    There'll still be demand for a lot of that stuff - even if it shrinks back it's not going away and a lot of those companies are here for major tax advantages too, and market access reasons, so it isn't really as precarious as life for small export businesses and so on.

    Take for example, the social media companies - they're probably going to be seeing a major upswing in use, not a downturn.

    All I'm saying is they're less exposed in the big IT companies and so on than they would be if they were making widgets for sale.

    China now risks a huge problem in the sense that their domestic manufacturing economy has sunk by 25% and domestic demand is down. That's now going to be hit with a massive fall in global demand for manufactured goods.

    I'm not saying Ireland's immune to this. However, we may not be as badly impacted as countries that are very much more dependent on nuts and bolts manufacturing of consumer goods.


  • #741
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,118 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    Again, travelling for work is a NECESSITY, going for a few scoops IS NOT.

    Having said that, viruses can't count, and public transport is a disgrace.


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  • #742
    05eaftqbrs9jlh
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,104 ✭✭✭05eaftqbrs9jlh


    sligeach wrote: »
    They've closed the pubs because some people were irresponsible over the weekend, but whatever punish the masses for the sins of a few(not that it affects me, I'm off the drink). And yet here we are Monday morning and people are being crammed like sardines onto train carriages. From the HSE:

    • Avoid close contact with people - keep a distance of 2 metres (6.5 feet) between you and others. FAIL

    • Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve when you cough and sneeze. FAIL

    • Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces. FAIL

    • Avoid spending more than 15 minutes face-to-face contact. FAIL

    Where's the Government intervention for these failures?
    The army lockdown is coming tomorrow if this thread last night is to be believed.


  • #743
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,979 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    That's the problem a lot of business have business interuption insurance and aren't covered unless there orderd to close by the government or local authorities. I'm in the same boat. The louder the public scream for it to happen the better if they want a business to come back and work in.

    Covered by who? Insurance policies have exclusions for stuff like this . Wont be covered . A lot of pubs/restaurants wont recover


  • #744
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Lyanna Some Gut wrote: »
    The army lockdown is coming tomorrow if this thread last night is to be believed.

    Once again there is no lockdown


  • #745
    Happy4all
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,089 ✭✭✭Happy4all


    sligeach wrote: »
    They've closed the pubs because some people were irresponsible over the weekend, but whatever punish the masses for the sins of a few(not that it affects me, I'm off the drink). And yet here we are Monday morning and people are being crammed like sardines onto train carriages. From the HSE:

    • Avoid close contact with people - keep a distance of 2 metres (6.5 feet) between you and others. FAIL

    • Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve when you cough and sneeze. FAIL

    • Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces. FAIL

    • Avoid spending more than 15 minutes face-to-face contact. FAIL

    Where's the Government intervention for these failures?[/quot


    Forced to go to work. Hour and a half commute on bus. None of above possible. No government outrage.


  • #746
    kingshankly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,013 ✭✭✭kingshankly


    Folks I’m a train driver I can tell ya there is very little cramming this morning very eerie


  • #747
    Blueshoe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,964 ✭✭✭Blueshoe


    Lyanna Some Gut wrote: »
    The army lockdown is coming tomorrow if this thread last night is to be believed.

    Too many movies being watched


  • #748
    1641
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,292 ✭✭✭1641


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Probably insurance.




    There was an article in one of yesterday's papers to the effect that, after the 2009 flu pandemic, most insurance companies added a clause to specifically exclude global pandemics from corporate cover. It said that before WHO officially declared a pandemic last week companies might have an arguable, but difficult, argument for cover but this would have disappeared with the WHO declaration.


  • #749
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It really is something else when Vietnam on the other side of the world is stopping tourism from all of Europe and bringing everyone to a military camp to be tested and maybe put in quarantine because some people brought it here from England. While travel between say Ireland the Great Britain is still going on.

    Asian countries are doing a hundred times as much to actually combat it when it's in the earlier stages. It seems things have to go crazy in Europe for something to happen.


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  • #750
    twomonkeys
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 168 ✭✭twomonkeys


    Lord Trollington wrote: »
    When you say average age.. the average age of what exactly? Infected ?

    It’s the average age of the population of the country.


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  • #751
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Xertz wrote: »
    There'll still be demand for a lot of that stuff - even if it shrinks back it's not going away and a lot of those companies are here for major tax advantages too, and market access reasons, so it isn't really as precarious as life for small export businesses and so on.

    Take for example, the social media companies - they're probably going to be seeing a major upswing in use, not a downturn.

    All I'm saying is they're less exposed in the big IT companies and so on than they would be if they were making widgets for sale.

    China now risks a huge problem in the sense that their domestic manufacturing economy has sunk by 25% and domestic demand is down. That's now going to be hit with a massive fall in global demand for manufactured goods.

    IT industry is on overtime . Demand for hardware, software and IT solutions from governments and businesses attempting to provide increased demand for IT for the health sector and to manage people working from home, right across the world.


This discussion has been closed.
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