Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP

Mic 1972 · 10-03-2020 01:25PM

Cw85 wrote: »

Anyone else get the feeling that it's coming to an end here? Can see maybe ten more cases max overall and then it just fizzling out. Italy had a massive community spread whereas we had 2/3 and there appears to be no more. I think the 1.9m estimation was a mad calculation not even China had that kind of number

I can see this being easily contained with lock down
China succeeded, the initial Italian clusters that were locked down almost immediately are also already coming off of it
If Ireland prefers to see the situation getting worse before it gets better than we'll have to live with it.

somofagun · 10-03-2020 01:25PM

Dosed with the cold here today.
Part of me wants to go to the local supermarket and just walk about coughing into my arm to see the looks that i get

Unearthly · 10-03-2020 01:27PM

Knockeen wrote: »

Ive heard rumours that Number of new cases in the mid thirties will be announced tonight?

And schools to close?

Seems a little radical compared to houlihans measured advice last night.

Rumours every day of big numbers increase but hasn't happened. Just wait for the official numbers

Mic 1972 · 10-03-2020 01:27PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Italy totally out of control now.

Actually Italy is now in control for the first time since the outbreak, give them 3 weeks and they will see an improvement
Are we in control or in denial?

cnocbui · 10-03-2020 01:27PM

Strazdas wrote: »

We cannot use Bologna as a template for anything. It's wise to adopt a 'wait and see' approach for the next week and watch closely how the virus is progressing across the EU. Given that our own numbers are low, we still have time on our side.

Italy would seem to indicate that 'wait and see' is the height of stupidity, China too.

RandomName2 · 10-03-2020 01:27PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Italy totally out of control now.

Viruses like this tend to spread at an exponential rate. There are a lot of stupid people that don't seem to understand this.

You take drastic action when there's only a couple of infections to stop the spread.

otnomart · 10-03-2020 01:28PM

banie01 wrote: »

I would hope that Ryanair and any other Airlines still routing flights to the quarantined areas are flying "ghost" flights?

I have not seen the load factor numbers (has someone seen them and can share ?) but my guess is that there are only a few people on board and they are all going back home.

https://twitter.com/Idefieks/status/1234170236024344576

https://twitter.com/CarlosJoseJalil/status/1236709078203842567

Irish Stones · 10-03-2020 01:28PM

dougm1970 wrote: »

thanks for detailed reply.

how about things like mail deliveries ?

You're welcome!

As far as I have seen, mail delivery is business as usual.

Nearly all hospitals are turning a few wards into ICU. Military barracks have been spotted as extra room for ICU beds.
New ICU equipment is on the way, along with some millions face masks within a few weeks, and 5,000 new jobs (doctors and nurses) in the health department to be started right away.
All hospitals have a pre-triage station outside the A&E building. So everybody who suspects to have some symptoms from Covid-19 must report to this pre-triage, which is basically a large tent, the type used for emergencies like earthquakes and similar disasters.

With these new measures the authorities hope not to see scene like this again
https://www.fanpage.it/attualita/coronavirus-navigli-e-corso-buenos-aires-presi-dassalto-dai-milanesi/
When on Saturday lots of young people in Milan gathered for a drink along the river walk.
When interviewed, some of them candidly claimed that they don't care because the message they got was that only elderly people get infected... :eek:

giveitholly · 10-03-2020 01:28PM

Knockeen wrote: »

Ive heard rumours that Number of new cases in the mid thirties will be announced tonight?

And schools to close?

Seems a little radical compared to houlihans measured advice last night.

Rumours rumours rumours,that is all they are

Mic 1972 · 10-03-2020 01:28PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Italy would seem to indicate that 'wait and see' is the height of stupidity, China too.

amen
Can't believe the "wait and see" attitude after what we are seeing at our doorstep

givyjoe · 10-03-2020 01:29PM

charlietheminxx wrote: »

Interesting to see the query from SusieBlue on NYC in April - I'm supposed to be going as well (on the 22nd). Have a feeling it might not be happening, since I'm going with my sister who would be classed as higher risk

Heading myself on Thursday. In January, shortly after I booked, I genuinely didn't think I would be going and thought there would be lockdowns, cancellation of flights etc as we are seeing for Italy now. Trump et al seem really keen to play it down for as long as possible but it may get to the point where it isn't worth the risk of going, for fear of catching it and being end up stuck there for x period of time. Still planning on going myself, unless something dramatically changes here, or NYC in the next few days.

fits · 10-03-2020 01:29PM

Naggdefy wrote: »

I presume you're from Carlow. I've a friend 2 miles outside the town in quarantine.

tested?

Mic 1972 · 10-03-2020 01:29PM

RandomName2 wrote: »

Viruses like this tend to spread at an exponential rate. There are a lot of stupid people that don't seem to understand this.
You take drastic action when there's only a couple of infections to stop the spread.

Absolutely correct

wakka12 · 10-03-2020 01:29PM

Knockeen wrote: »

Ive heard rumours that Number of new cases in the mid thirties will be announced tonight?

And schools to close?

Seems a little radical compared to houlihans measured advice last night.

So ...IRRELEVANT

RandomName2 · 10-03-2020 01:30PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Italy would seem to indicate that 'wait and see' is the height of stupidity, China too.

To be fair China wasn't so much 'waiting and seeing' it was trying to do a big cover up so the international community wouldn't know it had created a SARS. AGAIN.

The main whistleblower in China was arrested and killed socially, before he succumbed to the virus and died a second time.

Pretzill · 10-03-2020 01:30PM

Cw85 wrote: »

Anyone else get the feeling that it's coming to an end here? Can see maybe ten more cases max overall and then it just fizzling out. Italy had a massive community spread whereas we had 2/3 and there appears to be no more. I think the 1.9m estimation was a mad calculation not even China had that kind of number

I think the 1.9 calculation is to focus everyone to what could happen, not what will. Once we start to limit movement, public engagement and continue preventative measures this too will pass. But there are many unknowns - how long will it take? How far will is spread? What happens when the hospitals can't cope?

I'm a feeling a lot more positive after hearing the Tainiste last night on TV - you can see he is prepared to take this seriously, that's all we can hope for. Ireland is a great country when we work together -

Cork Boy 53 · 10-03-2020 01:30PM

somofagun wrote: »

Dosed with the cold here today.
Part of me wants to go to the local supermarket and just walk about coughing into my arm to see the looks that i get

Why not go the whole hog and book a flight to Milan while you still can before they are stopped and walk about the streets doing it there. Sure it would be great craic altogether.:rolleyes:

Wibbs · 10-03-2020 01:30PM

RandomName2 wrote: »

I really thought our government would be proactive.

We stopped foot and mouth disease! That disease can literally just blow in the wind. If a farm in line of sight of you has foot and mouth, you have foot and mouth disease.

People weren't even in danger with foot and mouth disease, but we banded together to stop it, and it worked.

I just can't understand how we have got to the stage we are currently at. I just can't understand it.

Economics RN. That seems to have been the most of it. If foot and mouth had taken hold here game over for the non arable farming sector and huge economic fallout. Plus it didn't directly impact the suburban Irish very much at all. So no need to panic buy sacks of organic lentils and bogroll. Nor impacted the daily lives of the average office worker. It was someone else's problem for the majority here, as were most of the restrictions.

wakka12 · 10-03-2020 01:31PM

Almost 300 new cases in Spain now and 5 more deaths.

66 more in Denmark, 123 more in Switzerland

10-03-2020 01:31PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Italy totally out of control now.

Would there not be a time delay to be factored in yet though to allow for lockdown procedures that started only at the weekend? I know alot of people are criticizing how good this lockdown is. The new of new cases may yet drop in another week to 10 days still though.

Mic 1972 · 10-03-2020 01:32PM

What other countries are currently on lock down?
I would suggest Spain, Noway, Switzerland to act quickly

Procasinator · 10-03-2020 01:32PM

For those doubting potential for spread based on numbers not jumping much yet, look at the rate of growth in other European nations:
Italy
Spain
France
Germany

We already have had community spread, these numbers will continue to rise and will accelerate.

Monkeynut · 10-03-2020 01:33PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

What other countries are currently on lock down?
I would suggest Spain, Noway, Switzerland to act quickly

Noway is hard to convince!!!

Naggdefy · 10-03-2020 01:33PM

fits wrote: »

tested?

Yes

igCorcaigh · 10-03-2020 01:33PM

The cfr for Europe/UK is currently at 3.57pc, that's using the naive method of lab confirmed cases, not closed cases (my rough calculation).

Seems consistent with previous estimates of Chinese cases using the same method.

RandomName2 · 10-03-2020 01:34PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Economics RN. That seems to have been the most of it. If foot and mouth had taken hold here game over for the non arable farming sector and huge economic fallout. Plus it didn't directly impact the suburban Irish very much at all. So no need to panic buy sacks of organic lentils and bogroll. Nor impacted the daily lives of the average office worker. It was someone else's problem for the majority here, as were most of the restrictions.

I suppose I could have been called naive that economic pragmatism would not rule, but I would have argued that a large outbreak of covid-19 would do more economic harm than early containment ever could.

Trump seems to not give a damn, on the grounds that giving a damn would negatively affect markets, but those markets are being affected regardless of inaction. Because of the tanking Dow Jones he now seems to be moving into gear. Probably too little, too late. It even gave Trump a unique opportunity to point his finger at China (which is wont to do anyway) and say that the outbreak of covid-19 is living proof that industry needs to return to America. You would think his vanity and nativism would have got in the way of his carelessness and disdain for human life.

wakka12 · 10-03-2020 01:34PM

Procasinator wrote: »

For those doubting potential for spread based on numbers not jumping much yet, look at the rate of growth in other European nations:
Italy
Spain
France
Germany

We already have had community spread, these numbers will continue to rise and will accelerate.

As far as Im aware the German cases are mostly related to a number of small towns. But Spain has announced uncontrollable community spread in it's capital so will probably record the most new cases in the coming days

bekker · 10-03-2020 01:34PM

Naggdefy wrote: »

Have Turkey made any announcement re. tests done?

Health Minister says no cases, precautions and travel restrictions working, reports in Turkey that test kits not available for doctors.

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 10-03-2020 01:35PM

Actual photo of Varadkar and Coves after they announced they were issuing a Do Not Fly to Italy

Mic 1972 · 10-03-2020 01:36PM

Procasinator wrote: »

For those doubting potential for spread based on numbers not jumping much yet, look at the rate of growth in other European nations:
Italy
Spain
France
Germany

We already have had community spread, these numbers will continue to rise and will accelerate.

Yep, the graphs look the same for each country. And they all look the same as China at the start of the outbreak
... but Ireland is different with only 23 cases

Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP