Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Fakediamond wrote: »

Having watched the experts on Claire Byrne Live and other programmes, I think that Professor McConkey’s approach of getting ahead of the virus by extreme measures is preferable to Dr de Gascun’s approach of let it happen and we’ll deal with it as we go along. My concern is that Dr de Gascun is the one on the advisory committee who has the ear of government and his cautious approach is the one being taken. I hope after last night that Prof McConkey’s advice is given more traction.

I’ll be following Prof McConkey’s advice as much as possible. That means limiting social contact and definitely not attending large indoor gatherings.

The government are going with Dr de Gascun’s approach, similar to the uk.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Seems v high. Looking at other sources, some say around 2.3. Another said as low as 1.4.

The WHO report of Late a February talks of a R0 of 2.5 in China. You have to bear in mind that this includes a period of time with significant lockdowns which will have lowered the R0. Earlier they were suggesting before the really strict lockdown went into place that R0 might have been as high as R0.

Since we aren’t in anything like their lockdown yet 3-4 is a reasonable figure as a worst case scenario for us - hell, we are in a unique situation where we are importing tens of thousands of people into the country for a weekend/week with no mandatory airport screening.

You can massively impact the R0 by creating social withdrawal. If it is 2.5 in China when they were welding people into apartments then it simply stands to reason it is high here - hence my use of the pre strict Chinese lockdown R0 estimate


Here’s an interesting paper which compares R0 with contact tracing feasibility and spread
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/langlo/PIIS2214-109X(20)30074-7.pdf

Here’s a link to the WHO report. It makes interesting reading and is written to be accessible to everyone.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

MadYaker wrote: »

The government are going with Dr de Gascun’s approach, similar to the uk.

And Italy...

Prof McConkey has been trying to get his message across for the past two weeks and in fairness is an expert in infectious disease and its spread. We should listen to him!

Flights still going into and out of rome, that’s a great lockdown.

MadYaker wrote: »

Where will you hold them in isolation? Thousands land here on planes every day. Would also require us to test everyone on the island which is impossible. I think you need a reality check. The government thinks 50 - 60% of the population could get infected. With mortality rate of somewhere between 1% to 3.5% that’s anything from around 20,000 to 80,000 dead here alone and many many more ill. This will overwhelm the health services completely so they will only be able to focus on those who they know they can save.

No we don't need to test everyone on the island only those and people they've been in contact with who are showing any symptoms after 5 days. As for our airport and ports, the advice for tourists will not be to come if they do we'll put them in the curragh, college accommodation campus, centerpark, mosney wherever but there not allowed in contact with Islanders for 5 days at least.

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-to-lock-down-an-entire-country-11954185

That's some serious disruption.


EXPLAINER
Coronavirus: How do you lock down an entire country like Italy?
All outdoor gatherings have been cancelled in Italy and museums, theatres and cinemas are closed.

Italy's prime minister has placed the entire country on lockdown in an attempt to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

Giuseppe Conte said the strict measures would be extended to the whole country on Tuesday - some 60 million people - after parts of northern Italy were shut down earlier.

The measures, which he described as "I stay home", mean people will only be permitted to travel for work or family emergencies.

There is already some confusion over what Italian citizens will still be allowed to do.

But what do these measures mean for different aspects of life?

Mr Conte said public transport would remain operational and airports and train stations would stay open.

Under the previous lockdown affecting only the north, travellers at train stations had to sign police forms to say they were travelling for "proven work needs", situations of necessity, health reasons or to return home.

Cars

On the main roads, police have been checking whether drivers are complying with the movement restrictions.


Cruise ships

At some ports, cruise ships have been forbidden to dock.

Checks were earlier introduced for cruise ship passengers arriving in Venice, who were not allowed to disembark to visit the city.

Restaurants

They must also be able to guarantee customers are at least one metre apart.

Businesses will be closed if they do not adhere to the rules.

Shops

Shops can remain open if they are able to guarantee the one-metre safety distance for customers.

Food stores are allowed to remain open at all hours.

Large and medium-sized shopping centres and markets have been told to close at weekends.

Sports events

All sports events and competitions have been cancelled until 3 April at the earliest.

This includes Serie A football matches.

Mr Conte also said gyms would be closed.

Schools

Schools and universities will be closed until 3 April.

Some schools in the north and centre of Italy had already been closed and expected to reopen on 16 March, but the closures have now been extended.

Social gatherings

All outdoor gatherings have been banned, and events including religious activities, fairs and sports are suspended.

Pope Francis celebrated morning Mass by himself in the chapel of the Vatican hotel where he lives, with the mass live-streamed instead.

Mr Conte also warned young people should not gather at pubs and bars, saying: "We cannot allow ourselves any more these occasions of meeting, which become occasions of contagion."

All weddings have been suspended until 3 April.

Leisure activities

Across Italy, museums and archaeological sites have been closed

Ski lifts have also been closed after students whose classes were cancelled began booking trips to ski resorts.

Cinemas and theatres have shut too.

Prisons

All visits to prisons have been suspended.

The containment measures caused riots at prisons across the country, leading to the deaths of six inmates.

Several inmates at a jail in Milan have climbed onto the roof

People accompanying patients to A&E units are not allowed to stay with them in the waiting rooms without permission.

Leave for healthcare workers has been cancelled.

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

The WHO report of Late a February talks of a R0 of 2.5 in China. You have to bear in mind that this includes a period of time with significant lockdowns which will have lowered the R0. Earlier they were suggesting before the really strict lockdown went into place that R0 might have been as high as R0.

Since we aren’t in anything like their lockdown yet 3-4 is a reasonable figure as a worst case scenario for us - hell, we are in a unique situation where we are importing tens of thousands of people into the country for a weekend/week with no mandatory airport screening.

You can massively impact the R0 by creating social withdrawal. If it is 2.5 in China when they were welding people into apartments then it simply stands to reason it is high here - hence my use of the pre strict Chinese lockdown R0 estimate


Here’s an interesting paper which compares R0 with contact tracing feasibility and spread
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/langlo/PIIS2214-109X(20)30074-7.pdf

Here’s a link to the WHO report. It makes interesting reading and is written to be accessible to everyone.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Yep, there was also a Chinese research paper posted on the thread a few days ago estimating that R0 in Wuhan was around 3.5 before containment measures and dropped to around 0.3 after the strictest mesures started to be enforced (quoting the figures out of memory, but I a sure I am not too far off).

YFlyer wrote: »

The test will only verify if he caught the coronavirus or not. It won't heal him. If sick or feeling bad, self isolate and sleep it off.

Yes but surely they should confirm virus then carry out contact tracing. Just because this person feels OK, doesn't mean he hasn't been sitting beside someone in the middle of cancer treatment, or elderly.

I thought this was a notifiable disease. The individual has done their part, the HSE has not.

Wishing them a speedy recovery

dougm1970 wrote: »

ok...again, apologies in advance, i'm pure stupid...but one thing about testing that i'm wondering about.
i seen (online posts) people getting scanned at airports, and was watching a youtuber last night being scanned with a scanner on a train in armenia.
what do these scans show or determine compared to the tests that confirm the virus in hospitals ?

Probably IR thermometers to detect fever?

It is not a perfect detection system whatsoever as an infected person doesn’t necessarily has fever and fever could be caused by something else, but at this stage I guess some countries will want to single out someone who has fever an assess them.

dougm1970 wrote: »

ok...again, apologies in advance, i'm pure stupid...but one thing about testing that i'm wondering about.
i seen (online posts) people getting scanned at airports, and was watching a youtuber last night being scanned with a scanner on a train in armenia.
what do these scans show or determine compared to the tests that confirm the virus in hospitals ?

From what was reported this will check your temperature. A quick way to see if you are showing symptoms. Yet other reports say it can take 5 days for symptoms to show.

this is savage looking...if the chinese figures are to be believed (can they be believed ?)....anyway, frightening video this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4d5_LTk_img