Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

That Iranian health worker woman had the best vid explaining the washing hands method.

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

This is like soft porn on Claire Byrne Live.

I love Luke O Neill. I think he is such an interesting person

MD1990 wrote: »

I actually think they gone too pesimistic now.

Follow what China & Korea have done & it can greatly reduced.

The worry is will people have the discipline to live in lockdown possibly for months

We can't.

It seems Korea >7 critical care hospital beds per '000 population, we have less than 2.75.

China is a one party state with intensive population monitoring and a centuries old imperative to the common good as opposed to individual freedom of action. Korea though a multi-party democracy but in other respects very similar to China.

We need to learn what other countries have done right and adapt and improvise for Irish realities, and do it with common sense and urgency.

Claire's audience are way less than 2m apart.

Should we stay away from the gym?

MD1990 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ClaireByrneLive/status/1237154985961496576

agree 100% with this women

Id ove to be an Italian.

Hansom mofos.

expectationlost wrote: »

more then that since friday

HSE said 21 cases on Friday, no?
With three extra cases now.

zweton wrote: »

Should we stay away from the gym?

Yes. That would be advisable

zweton wrote: »

Should we stay away from the gym?

If your sick yes if not just wash machines and weights before and after and keep some space around you. Sweat doesn't carry the virus.

eclipsechaser wrote: »

Just a back of the envelope calculation. If say 2.5% of the population are infected at one time, that's 120,000 infected. Of those, if 5% need ICU care, that's 6,000 people needing an ICU bed. We have 255 beds. That's worse than 1 ICU bed for every 20 people needing it. That's 19 out of 20 critically ill people not being treated.

I actually think those numbers are conservative if anything. Worst case scenarios could be 1 ICU bed for every hundreds of people needing it.

Tell me I'm missing something...

Your assumption re number I’ll at any one time is off. I outlined this previously and got called a scaremongers right. I’ll post it again now that people are more willing to listen (possibly).

We had 21 cases (call it 20 yesterday ) and with four doubling last that take us to 1st April roughly. Four doubling is 20 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 320.

In April there could be five doublings ( if we follow the Italian rate of doubling of doubling every six days - this is conservative ) which is a 32-fold increase

320 x 32 = 10,000 cases by end of April. If hospitalised it takes an average of 32 days to recover and about 10 to 14 to die if you’re going to.

In May if we don’t change the trajectory we could end up with 320,000 cases cumulatively. Sure the 10,000 up to end of April will be cured or dead but 310,000 I’ll with 20% needing hospital is up to 62,000 needing hospital:oxygen/other supports. We don’t have that many beds or the capacity to provide that much supplementary oxygen. We almost certainly won’t have enough antibiotics either.

Extrapolate to June and in 3 weeks you could be at 2.5 million ill. That’s be even worse.

This is why we need to change the trajectory and slow the rate of infection by handwashing and social distancing. Ideally this won’t be about staying far from people. It’ll be about not going out at all.


To put it into perspective even if you imagine someone will only need one week on a ventilator with 250 ventilators we can save 1000 severely ill a month. If we have 310,000 sick at any one time we might need 31,000 ventilators.

This is why the math frightens medics and why it is soooo important that we change the trajectory so we don’t have so many sick at any one time.

The more sick at any one time the greater the peak in deaths. The same number of ill over one year would have a much lower death rate than the same number getting sick in 3 months.

We CAN impact this but only if the denial ends and we change our behaviours.

zweton wrote: »

Should we stay away from the gym?

I’m be going first thing in the morning for now, I’ll see how the situation evolves and may stop going at all in a few days.