Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP

Macy0161 · 09-03-2020 11:25AM

Alternatively, the Government are going on the advise of the Public Health experts and CMO.

Parades would be the least of my concern on St Patricks Day - biggest risk of spread would (in my equally ill-informed as most posters opinion) be the pubs. Enclosed space, many people in close proximity, drunk (so more susceptible to illness, less inclined to stick to recommended hygiene advice) etc. But the parades, Joe...

odyssey06 · 09-03-2020 11:26AM

tillyfilly wrote: »

Sky News
Coronavirus: £130bn wiped off FTSE 100 in minutes

It's ok, looks like we won't live long enough to need that pension fund...

Runaways · 09-03-2020 11:27AM

Yet another wally on the radio back from a skiing trip. To Italy.

Who the ever living fvck are these people?

andy125 · 09-03-2020 11:27AM

Are company produces medical beds and furniture as well as mantaince on hospitals and nursing homes equipment across the country, some nursing homes have started to turn us away at the door last week.

Company had a meeting this morning saying we might have to close this business until it has blown over if it continues to escalate, they are not sure how sick pay would work in this scenario and have tried contacting the relevant departments for answers, company has over 60 workers

ThePopehimself · 09-03-2020 11:28AM

DVDM93 wrote: »

the latest doing the rounds.

Nuts! Particularly the 5/6 class split class. That just defies all Logic ...I'm gobsmacked....

(Even if this is a letter from last week, the thinking on the 5/6 split class is so skewed).

JDD · 09-03-2020 11:28AM

Am I right in saying that flu bugs reduce in the summer because people are more likely to be outside and therefore not stuck in some damp bus or tram or pub? And that people's immune systems are generally a bit healthier and stronger because we eat better, fresher, food and are not getting regularly soaked/frozen to the bone?

If that's the case, I can't really see how numbers won't naturally reduce over the summer. I know Australia is the anomaly here, but they have 75 cases in a population of 25 million - or, for ease of comparison, if they had a 5 million population like us, that's 15 infected persons, less than what we have. Given the sheer number of south-east Asians, and particularly Chinese, flying in and out of Australia daily, and the number of Australians who regularly travel, you'd expect their outbreak to be much, much worse.

So on my back-of-the-envelope calculations, this is what I think is a fairly likely scenario:

Assume there is five times as many people walking around infected then those that are diagnosed at the moment. So that's 126 infected. The incubation period is 3-14 days, so let's take an average of a six day incubation period. Most people will get over the illness in a week. Some will only have it for a day or two. Those that take longer will be the ones that need hospitalization, so they're less like to infect people. So, let's say you're infectious for two weeks. The WHO says the re-infection rate is anything between 1.5 and 2.5 people, so say the 126 infect two people each over the next two weeks, and so on and so forth: e.g.
9 March: 126
23 March: 252
6 April: 504

As so on until we get to 1 June when we may have approximately 8,000 cases. Half of those people will have recovered, you'd expect. 15%, or 600, will be in hospital (or god help us, dead). We could cope with that. And hopefully the summer weather will start to reduce infections.

Of course, we may import more cases in the meantime, increasing the numbers, but given the reduction in travel recently across Europe, I don't think imported cases are going to change the numbers significantly.

Lord TSC · 09-03-2020 11:28AM

Macy0161 wrote: »

Alternatively, the Government are going on the advise of the Public Health experts and CMO.

Parades would be the least of my concern on St Patricks Day - biggest risk of spread would (in my equally ill-informed as most posters opinion) be the pubs. Enclosed space, many people in close proximity, drunk (so more susceptible to illness, less inclined to stick to recommended hygiene advice) etc. But the parades, Joe...

Oh, it's going to be fun seeing how Ireland gets on if the pubs have to close for a few weeks. :pac:

Cilldara_2000 · 09-03-2020 11:28AM

gozunda wrote: »

Low Tax????

You must be living in some other state somewhere - you're certainly not living and working in the private sector if you believe there is 'low tax' here for sure.

The HSE gets humongous amounts of money every year however a large proportion of that gets spent on triple layers of management, administrators and bean counters...

And here we are ...

The total tax take in Ireland relative to GDP is well behind almost all of the rest of the OECD: https://data.oecd.org/tax/tax-revenue.htm. Only Chile and Mexico are consistently behind us. France 46.09%, Denmark 44.86% and Belgium 44.85% are the top three there on latest available data. We're at 22.32%.The OECD average is 34.26%.

We're well behind on health spending too: https://data.oecd.org/healthres/health-spending.htm. 7.095% of GDP vs OECD average of 8.795%. In context, our GDP was $411bn in 2019: https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm. The difference in real terms is $7bn. Had we spent that amount extra on health services over the last number of years, we might well have the same number of beds per capita as Germany, have a proper home and community care set up in place and be in a far better position to tackle this crisis.

dan786 · 09-03-2020 11:28AM

It is really that bad over in Iran...

Iran has released approximately 70,000 prisoners because of the coronavirus outbreak in the country, Iranian judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi said, according to Mizan, the news site of the judiciary.

"The release of the prisoners, to the point where it doesn't create insecurity in society ... will continue," he said.

Mr Raisi did not specify if or when those released would need to return to jail.

touts · 09-03-2020 11:29AM

Runaways wrote: »

Yet another wally on the radio back from a skiing trip. To Italy.

Who the ever living fvck are these people?

Young. Fit. Healthy. Looking for a bargain. Don't give a **** about elderly or at risk people back in Ireland.

Ursabear · 09-03-2020 11:29AM

Coffee shops aren't accepting keep cups but then you are meant to remove a disposable lid from a pile loads of people are touching and pulling apart .. I think I have to give up my morning coffeeshop routine

smelly sock · 09-03-2020 11:31AM

I cant believe that any medical professional thinks the paddys week festivities should go ahead.

quokula · 09-03-2020 11:32AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Just being in contact does not mean people will contract the virus, many do not.

Yeah people wildly overestimate how contagious this is. The virus has an estimated R0 of 2.2 at the moment. That means that somebody who is infected will typically infect just over 2 other people across the entire 2+ weeks that they're infected. That could be 2 family members they live with and nobody else. That could be one co-worker on the Tuesday and another co-worker on the following Friday, but no other co-workers.

Obviously this is an average so it will vary and some people will infect 5+ others while other people will infect nobody, but typically the large majority of people an infected person comes in contact with will not be infected by them. Self isolation and other measures like diligent hygiene all bring this down.

odyssey06 · 09-03-2020 11:33AM

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

The total tax take in Ireland relative to GDP is well behind almost all of the rest of the OECD: https://data.oecd.org/tax/tax-revenue.htm. Only Chile and Mexico are consistently behind us. France 46.09%, Denmark 44.86% and Belgium 44.85% are the top three there on latest available data. We're at 22.32%.The OECD average is 34.26%.

Any Irish figures need to use GNP, that is well known that our figures are distorted by multinationals.

Bob24 · 09-03-2020 11:33AM

4 French MPs (out of 577) are now confirmed to have the virus, as per Le Figaro.

Wondering if they tested all of them as a matter of national security. That is something affected countries probably have done or should do ... we don’t want epidemics in national parliaments during a crisis period.

ThePopehimself · 09-03-2020 11:34AM

touts wrote: »

Young. Fit. Healthy. Looking for a bargain. Don't give a **** about elderly or at risk people back in Ireland.

Is he still on? What station?

Macy0161 · 09-03-2020 11:36AM

Lord TSC wrote: »

Oh, it's going to be fun seeing how Ireland gets on if the pubs have to close for a few weeks. :pac:

Definitely see panic buying then anyway!

SMC92Ian · 09-03-2020 11:36AM

dan786 wrote: »

A Disneyland Paris staff maintenance worker tested positive for coronavirus over the weekend, a spokesperson for the theme park said.

Contact tracing of staff who were in contact with the worker is under way, but Disneyland Paris remains open.

FFS my cousin and her kids are there right now.

ThePopehimself · 09-03-2020 11:37AM

Ursabear wrote: »

Coffee shops aren't accepting keep cups but then you are meant to remove a disposable lid from a pile loads of people are touching and pulling apart .. I think I have to give up my morning coffeeshop routine

Fill your own keep cup from a self service coffee station. No one has to touch it but you. That should be okay.

dan786 · 09-03-2020 11:38AM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1236959072198578181?s=20

touts · 09-03-2020 11:39AM

Last round of Six Nations Games just cancelled according to RTE radio. Rescheduled to October.

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 09-03-2020 11:41AM

Hello, a friend is looking for some advice.

My boss is back from a weekend in France. He won't self-isolate, there are many people I interact with who who are immunocompromised (wife, mother, father, brother in law, grandfather). When I asked him if he might wait a few days to see if any symptoms crop up, he said I'm being hysterical and to take two weeks holidays myself if it's that big of a deal. What do you think I should do?

Runaways · 09-03-2020 11:42AM

I had wondered but now fairly sure the reason Leo and FG dragging their feet with forming a government is they don’t want to be to blame when this goes badly wrong. But it will anyways and they will be anyways. Especially by their inaction.

dan786 · 09-03-2020 11:42AM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1236965325222088705?s=20

Ann22 · 09-03-2020 11:43AM

If it passes by droplet infection surely a person who is infected but not showing symptoms shouldn't be passing it on that easily...if they're not coughing or sneezing?

errlloyd · 09-03-2020 11:43AM

touts wrote: »

Last round of Six Nations Games just cancelled according to RTE radio. Rescheduled to October.

Can't see anything? You sure about this?

RandomName2 · 09-03-2020 11:44AM

Lord TSC wrote: »

I'll be honest, my head is struggling to wrap around it.

But while I agree a healthy dose of fear is responsible, I find myself getting so annoyed with the utter doomsday panic that I whip against it a bit.

I'm fully aware of how bad it could potentially get. But I also don't think that we can just shut the entire world down for the months it would need to stamp this all out.

I personally believe that there's a lot more than the reported cases, simply because I believe this has been around for a lot longer than a week since our first case was reported. I think it's probably been around for at least weeks (if not months), but that given it doesn't display symptoms for many people, and is only a very mild dose for most other people, then life has continued for the vast majority. I think that's going to massively skew the death rate figures too, because not everyone who has it will be offically diagnosed. I think there's many people have probably already died from it, and it was hand waved away because (as callous as this sounds) people die from flu and other such illness all the time.

(I had a grandmother who died a few months ago. Was in a nursing home, picked up a really bad flu and passed on shortly after. It was attributed as "Natural causes" because of her age).

I appreciate that the 3% death rate is awful. At the same time, I hate that there's some who nearly are trying to spin it as if 3% of all people will die, when it's actually 3% of infected in a worse case scenario.

The figures are already bad enough but there's some, both individuals and in the media, who are exaggerating it in a bid to envoke mass panic, which is never helpful at all.

I think people need to be more vigilant; washing hands, etc.

I also think the virus, such as it is, will be around for a lot longer than a few weeks, and the entire world cannot grind to a halt for the next 6-18 months.

The world could have ground to a halt for a paltry 2 weeks in January and the virus would have been contained. It doesn't spontaneously generate. It has to be transmitted from person to person. If nobody in your country has someone who is infected you are 100% safe, if that's not the case then if you don't have all infected individuals in isolation, then it's only a matter of time.

It's all or nothing.

If the government and HSE don't bother trying to squash the outbreak in this country, then there's no point cancelling St. Patrick's Day parades - in the same way there was no point postponing the 6 Nations game if they weren't going to be arsed screening people coming from Italy.

Some people say that mitigation could be good to slow down the rate of infection to give us time to get a vaccine, but that isn't going to be until the autumn at the earliest.

Be vigilant? We either go full throttle to get rid of this or we don't. The HSE and government are content with 20,000 deaths by the look of it. That's 2% death rate (lower than the reported rate by WHO) and 20% of the population infected. Some people say that that's okay. Some people don't. But there's no point in some people being naysayers. This has to be a collective effort or it's worth diddly squat.

New Home · 09-03-2020 11:44AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bit of a runney nose this morning. Better call my vet.

With that username? Good idea!

crisco10 · 09-03-2020 11:45AM

errlloyd wrote: »

Can't see anything? You sure about this?

I heard it too, the source was Michael Corcoran saying off until October 31st

wakka12 · 09-03-2020 11:45AM

235 new cases in Spain, almost 1000 there now
Europe has well in excess of 10,000 active cases currently

Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP