Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP

patnor1011 · 09-03-2020 10:53AM

is_that_so wrote: »

"Business interests" employ people so that they can feed their families and look after the elderly and infirm.

Would you rather feed your family, elderly and infirm or bury them?

JDD · 09-03-2020 10:53AM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

NVRL not open Sundays. Cases reported yesterday were confirmed before yesterday. Backlog of tests today and tomorrow will show a spike. If they don’t you’ll then have your good news story.

Fair enough. I'm guessing the data published at 8.30-ish each evening is positives from 1pm to 1pm each day, and therefore the two positives yesterday we the 1pm-6pm results from the NVRL lab on Saturday?

If there's a backlog, and no discernable increase in cases, I'd expect 7-10 positive cases this evening. 10-15 would be moderately worrying. More than 15 would put us right back on track for an Italian-esque outbreak.

Less then 7? Well either the NVRL can't rank up their capacity, and there's a load of backlog, or...I dunno, the tracing is working? That's probably the least credible scenario though, much as I'd like to believe it.

Fakediamond · 09-03-2020 10:54AM

kevthegaff wrote: »

I'm a dairy farmer, if it gets very bad is there a chance our export markets will shut down or collections of milk will cease if your in a high risk zone

I’d say food production will have to be supported and prioritised. I don’t know about exports, I think we’ll be servicing our own market first. The biggest risk I’d see for your business is sickness and not being able to keep going because of that.

The government are going to have to have to up their response to this and take extreme measures to keep food production going.

I think it’s is going to be a time when all citizens will have to pull together for the greater good. I hope we can all rise to the challenge.

Hamsterchops · 09-03-2020 10:55AM

Ever wondered why Italy has such a high concentration of Covid cases? Well I just found out the answer, and apparently it's because of the Italian fashion industry and all the Chinese labour coming & going between Italy & China! I never knew that before today

2ygb4cmqetsjhx · 09-03-2020 10:55AM

Anybody here saying we should take a Chinese approach should remember that China's authoritarian nature caused this mess. They tried to hide the virus and here we are today. Also I wouldn't bet that it is contained there either. Their numbers don't make sense. They have taken drastic measures but I think even if they didn't supress it we would still be in the same situation.

The Chinese state has been lying for decades. I doubt they are suddently being truthful.

frillyleaf · 09-03-2020 10:56AM

Insane to think this has all likely happened due to poor animal practises in a wet market. I really hope there are serious lessons learned from this and legislation bans these markets.

I think the secondary implications are starting to be felt already. Healthcare workers being sent into isolation, people cancelling holidays out of fear of being stranded somewhere.

I hope it doesn’t get our of hand over here but when you see how China managed this compared to other countries I can’t help but think it will put significant strain on us. Must be frightening living in Italy at the moment or having family there.

2ygb4cmqetsjhx · 09-03-2020 10:57AM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Insane to think this has all likely happened due to poor animal practises in a wet market. I really hope there are serious lessons learned from this and legislation bans these markets.

I think the secondary implications are starting to be felt already. Healthcare workers being sent into isolation, people cancelling holidays out of fear of being stranded somewhere.

I hope it doesn’t get our of hand over here but when you see how China managed this compared to other countries I can’t help but think it will put significant strain on us. Must be frightening living in Italy at the moment or having family there.

Lol. There are no laws in China. They are not a model for us to follow.

Nijmegen · 09-03-2020 10:58AM

Coen Delightful Thumbscrew wrote: »

Anybody here saying we should take a Chinese approach should remember that China's authoritarian nature caused this mess. They tried to hide the virus and here we are today. Also I wouldn't bet that it is contained there either. There numbers don't make sense. They have taken drastic measures but I think even if they didn't supress it we would still be in the same situation.

The Chinese state has been lying for decades. I doubt they are suddently being truthful.

Be that as it may for starting the outbreak, what we can say is that the majority of cases in Ireland for example are being driven from Italy rather than China. Even in Vietnam, per the case above, it's countries like the UK that are now exporting reported cases overseas; not China.

So if you don't trust the Chinese figures, you can at least look at the spread of identified cases worldwide and note that very few are now being exported from China. Which indicates a slowdown there plus the effectiveness of lockdown measures internally and externally.

amadangomor · 09-03-2020 10:58AM

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Ever wondered why Italy has such a high concentration of Covid cases? Well I just found out the answer, and apparently it's because of the Italian fashion industry and all the Chinese labour coming & going between Italy & China! I never knew that before today

Last Monday just called and wants it's news story back :pac:

frillyleaf · 09-03-2020 10:59AM

Coen Delightful Thumbscrew wrote: »

Anybody here saying we should take a Chinese approach should remember that China's authoritarian nature caused this mess. They tried to hide the virus and here we are today. Also I wouldn't bet that it is contained there either. Their numbers don't make sense. They have taken drastic measures but I think even if they didn't supress it we would still be in the same situation.

The Chinese state has been lying for decades. I doubt they are suddently being truthful.

I agree with you that it’s not possible to do the same here. Yes it was hidden for a few weeks at the beginning but I do think how they isolated people helped slow it down and give other countries time to prepare

facehugger99 · 09-03-2020 10:59AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I'm sure the hundreds of thousands of people in the vulnerable category here would gladly sacrifice their legal rights for a year or two to get on top of this situation.

You can see how vulnerable our democratic freedoms are when you have moronic posts like this masquerading as sage advice.

I'd be far more afraid that Governments would entertain to these kind of sentiments than I am of the Coronavirus.

fly_agaric · 09-03-2020 10:59AM

amadangomor wrote: »

It's been posted on here many times that the Chinese brought the full force of the state to bear in locking down the city where the outbreak started. They enforced people staying in their homes under strict penalty and can make up their own rules to do what it takes.

We are a Western democracy and do not have the legal right or indeed the will to take these drastic measures. Look at Italy as a better example of what we are more likely to be like in a few weeks

Whatever about the legality & acceptance by the public, we don't have the capability if it ever gets to that point.
We have a pygmy public sector, at capacity health service, undermanned police force, + no military to speak of either.
So hopefully we don't ever let it get there.:(

Martina1991 · 09-03-2020 11:00AM

STB. wrote: »

The CT scans reported abnormalities from day one and concluded that chest CT imaging may be a more reliable and rapid method to diagnose coronavirus. Infact initial negative PCR which show up as positive on CT features highlights the limitations of PCR testing for any early warning and the positives of CT as a screening method.

I doubt he is a mind reader as to know what I read. You know damn well the PCR testing is not worth a curse for early detection and that's why people are being long fingered by the screeners.

Negative, then positive. Its only accuracy is too late in some cases, when patients are tubed up in hospitals. An experience confirmed by Italian doctors on the ground who have followed the same regime.

"They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen"

"Staying at home until the symptoms worsen does not change the prognosis of the disease."

Where in that study does it say CT scans reported abnormalities diagnostic of COVID19 from day one?
You keep bringing up that one study. Surely further studies are needed to compare both methods as a better diagnostic tool.

Here's another study from the same journal that found:
"Ramifications of negative imaging in known infected patients suggests that chest CT lacks complete sensitivity and cannot alone reliably fully exclude this disease, particularly early in the infection. This may be related to the fact that 2019-nCoV has an incubation period of several days, and there may be a prodromal phase where viral infection manifests with symptoms before the emergence of imaging manifestations". https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200230

Another poster here Xertz made a good point that it’s all well and good until you’ve a massive number of people waiting for a CT scan. CT scanners are in most hospitals but they’re not idle all day. They’re not in areas that would be able to cope with patients with a highly infectious disease.

They’re quick and simple, but they would have to sterilise the whole suite between patients. You would also need staff to run CT scan around the clock. Radiographers provide an on call service in hospitals like laboratories do. They have one person on at night performing CT scans if needed.

South Korea is testing 10,000 people a day. With the majority of those infected being asymptomatic or having mild symptoms. Isn’t it a good way of detecting their infected population and having them isolate themselves to prevent further transmission?

One of the cases in Cork was a close contact case with the infected male patient in Cork. Isn’t it a good thing that they were identified before transmitting it further?
Your issue seems to be more to do with the limitations of our testing criteria rather than the PCR assay. You think people go from having a mild cough to requiring full blown intubation. That’s hyperbole.

To say PCR is “not worse a curse” or simply “doesn’t work” is a load of ****e.

is_that_so · 09-03-2020 11:01AM

Drumpot wrote: »

Have you looked into the logic behind the statistics or are you dismissing it because you don’t like the sound of it?

I don’t mind people questioning the figures but if they don’t have any reasonable rebuttal other then “papers hype” (which we all know) , then I’d suggest maybe they read up a bit more on why these figures could potentially play out.

Seems like maybe a bit of fear wouldn’t be necessarily a bad thing for people who still can’t grasp how bad this might get.

I see the logic and I also see the utter improbability of it, based on data to date. As for fear well once you let it loose you have no control over what it will do but I guess that's OK just as long as people are "informed".

Talisman · 09-03-2020 11:02AM

Fakediamond wrote: »

I think it’s is going to be a time when all citizens will have to pull together for the greater good. I hope we can all rise to the challenge.

Service guarantees citizenship ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_7FaWnlhS4

tobefrank321 · 09-03-2020 11:02AM

patnor1011 wrote: »

A lot of people do not realize simple thing. That China was a ground zero and Singapore or Taiwan next in line - meaning they most likely could get it from china only.

We are right in the middle of it all as virus spread to most of the countries so we are, and will be getting it from all sides.

A couple of weeks ago, Northern Italy was ground zero in Europe.

Had flights been cancelled to the region, we would have greatly reduced the number of idiots people flying out there for ski holidays and the like.
Anyone already out there could have registered with the Irish Embassy in Italy and say whether they wanted to stay put or come home. A controlled way of bringing them home could have been brought into place with mandatory isolation for those who did return.

This would have greatly reduced our chances of infections from northern Italy.

Would it have prevented it fully? Nope. But it would have slowed it down. Those who came through our airports should have been questioned about their prior movements. Handing out leaflets was never going to be a solution, it was a joke response from our pathetic government.

The EU and Italy should have imposed strict controls on Northern Italy including on the borders in Northern Italy and with France. Free movement of people was needed to be curtailed until this was brought under control with checks at the borders in and out of Italy. Passports should have been stamped saying if someone had recently been in Italy. These passports could have been checked at airports in Ireland, the UK, Iceland etc and then decisions made on what to do.

We've survived centuries without free movement of people before this situation. We can survive for a year or two until this is sorted.

Lord TSC · 09-03-2020 11:03AM

Drumpot wrote: »

Seems like maybe a bit of fear wouldn’t be necessarily a bad thing for people who still can’t grasp how bad this might get.

I'll be honest, my head is struggling to wrap around it.

But while I agree a healthy dose of fear is responsible, I find myself getting so annoyed with the utter doomsday panic that I whip against it a bit.

I'm fully aware of how bad it could potentially get. But I also don't think that we can just shut the entire world down for the months it would need to stamp this all out.

I personally believe that there's a lot more than the reported cases, simply because I believe this has been around for a lot longer than a week since our first case was reported. I think it's probably been around for at least weeks (if not months), but that given it doesn't display symptoms for many people, and is only a very mild dose for most other people, then life has continued for the vast majority. I think that's going to massively skew the death rate figures too, because not everyone who has it will be offically diagnosed. I think there's many people have probably already died from it, and it was hand waved away because (as callous as this sounds) people die from flu and other such illness all the time.

(I had a grandmother who died a few months ago. Was in a nursing home, picked up a really bad flu and passed on shortly after. It was attributed as "Natural causes" because of her age).

I appreciate that the 3% death rate is awful. At the same time, I hate that there's some who nearly are trying to spin it as if 3% of all people will die, when it's actually 3% of infected in a worse case scenario.

The figures are already bad enough but there's some, both individuals and in the media, who are exaggerating it in a bid to envoke mass panic, which is never helpful at all.

I think people need to be more vigilant; washing hands, etc.

I also think the virus, such as it is, will be around for a lot longer than a few weeks, and the entire world cannot grind to a halt for the next 6-18 months.

(and I say that as someone with some minor health issues, with a family who'd have some major health issues too).

Kermit.de.frog · 09-03-2020 11:03AM

The crisis in Italy does raise some heartbreaking moral dilemmas.

A cut off age for ICU beds being the biggest or, rather, opting for certain patients over others based on age, underlying conditions etc.

Let's hope we never face those choices here.

Bob24 · 09-03-2020 11:04AM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Insane to think this has all likely happened due to poor animal practises in a wet market. I really hope there are serious lessons learned from this and legislation bans these markets.

From what I understand legislation is already in place to ban them but hasn’t been enforced in Wuhan. But yes, they need to enforce it and not just for the show for a couple of weeks - everywhere and in the long run. I know quite a few Chinese people and they all seem pretty pissed-off about this (the eating everything thing is more of a southern thing and definitely isn’t something everyone does, people from the North are particularly annoyed).

Rob A. Bank · 09-03-2020 11:05AM

The dominant neo-liberal economic philosophy of today has finally met it’s nemesis with this viral catastrophe.

The well known neo-liberal mantras of 'low tax’, 'privatization', 'deregulation’ ‘austerity’ and ‘small government’ have starved the welfare state, government services and the regulatory state of money.

It's not rocket science...

If you don’t fund public services...

Guess what...

They will not be there when you need them most...

Like now.

Boggles · 09-03-2020 11:05AM

The fumbling and fúckíng around Saint Patricks day by our "leaders" doesn't instill much confidence TBH.

Announcement in the next 24 to 48 hours maybe apparently.

We all know it will be cancelled.

Just cancel the fúcking thing and stop with the uncertainty.

wadacrack · 09-03-2020 11:06AM

Bob24 wrote: »

From what I understand legislation is already in place to ban them ban hasn’t been enforced in Wuhan. But yes, they need to enforce it and not just for the show for a couple of weeks - everywhere and in the long run.

Their run by criminal syndicate's illegally . Pretty sure their banned in Wuhan but could be wrong

Kermit.de.frog · 09-03-2020 11:06AM

Boggles wrote: »

The fumbling and fúckíng around Saint Patricks day by our "leaders" doesn't instill much confidence TBH.

Announcement in the next 24 to 48 hours maybe apparently.

We all know it will be cancelled.

Just cancel the fúcking thing and stop with the uncertainty.

Couldnt cancel fast enough for foot and mouth IIRC!

Dravokivich · 09-03-2020 11:06AM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

If that were to happen youd also think milk supply to shops may be effected too.

Would it be possible to sell direct to public? People come with their own containers?

It'll be raw milk.

Cork Boy 53 · 09-03-2020 11:07AM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Insane to think this has all likely happened due to poor animal practises in a wet market. I really hope there are serious lessons learned from this and legislation bans these markets.

I think the secondary implications are starting to be felt already. Healthcare workers being sent into isolation, people cancelling holidays out of fear of being stranded somewhere.

I hope it doesn’t get our of hand over here but when you see how China managed this compared to other countries I can’t help but think it will put significant strain on us. Must be frightening living in Italy at the moment or having family there.

Given the absolutely horrifying things that happen to animals in that part of the world I would be delighted if that happens and is enforced but I wouldn't be so sure that it will.

tobefrank321 · 09-03-2020 11:08AM

Boggles wrote: »

The fumbling and fúckíng around Saint Patricks day by our "leaders" doesn't instill much confidence TBH.

Announcement in the next 24 to 48 hours maybe apparently.

We all know it will be cancelled.

Just cancel the fúcking thing and stop with the uncertainty.

Agreed. And just as bad is Varadkar heading off to the US for the annual Paddy's Day Junket, when he should be here dealing with this situation. The same goes for other ministers.

patnor1011 · 09-03-2020 11:08AM

Dravokivich wrote: »

It'll be raw milk.

Yup. It will be the real thing. Not white colored water you buy in shop.

Boggles · 09-03-2020 11:10AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Agreed. And just as bad is Varadkar heading off to the US for the annual Paddy's Day Junket, when he should be here dealing with this situation. The same goes for other ministers.

If Leo heads off on that junket he shouldn't be allowed back in.

dan786 · 09-03-2020 11:10AM

Qatar has announced it was suspending schools and universities from tomorrow to control the coronavirus outbreak, according to the state newsagency.

ednwireland · 09-03-2020 11:10AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Couldnt cancel fast enough for foot and mouth IIRC!

stable governement with a coalition that agreed on most things in 2003, very different to a caretaker government that thinks sniping at SF is still more important than public health

Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP