Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

citysights wrote: »

How did the health officials come up with the 1.9 million number of possible infections in Ireland in the coming weeks. That’s nearly half our population. Is that not a bit overdone as this hasn’t been the case in any other country has it that nearly half the population got infected?

If you multiply enough numbers together you'll get whatever answer you want.

Srsly though, the story was that they couldn't deny that cases could get to 1.9m. Not that they think they will get to there. Anyone who says cases will definitely get to any number, high or low, is just guessing. That's why all experts are saying might and could etc.

Also the possibility that they're concerned that not enough people are taking it seriously enough and following the advice. In that vein, if they said everyone will get it if you don't wash your hands, cough into your elbow, have a shower every day and wash your clothes regularly, I'd fully support them.

The fact NI has half the amount of cases of ROI but with a quarter of the population either makes use incredibly lucky or someone is cooking the books down here

Deleted User wrote: »

What about those snoods would they be useful.

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Only if you want to look like a tit like Samir Nasri.

citysights wrote: »

How did the health officials come up with the 1.9 million number of possible infections in Ireland in the coming weeks. That’s nearly half our population. Is that not a bit overdone as this hasn’t been the case in any other country has it that nearly half the population got infected?

Plenty of academics postulating that 40-70% of the worlds population may get it. 1.9m is 40% of the Irish population.

The epidemic (or pandemic...) hasn’t been going on long enough to infect that many people. China has shown the way on how to stop it, but we are seeing in countries like Iran that it can and will take off through the population if you let it. And their published figures are nowhere near the reality - a member of the Iranian committee dealing with Coronavirus reckons that in Tehran a few million will have it in the city.

Sources:
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2020/03/05/Coronavirus-to-infect-up-to-40-of-Tehran-s-population-within-next-two-weeks.html

Probable growth in cases of Covid-19 (virus SARS-CoV-2) in Ireland

Using worldwide growth rates (outside China) which are showing indices of 1.10 to 1.25 per day of preceding day's total.

Assumptions: 1st reported case 29 Jan,prob. test date 27 Jan (-2), with prob initial infection abt. 22 Jan (-5).

Cases by 8 Mar 21st Mar Bed capacity 275*
Constant growth rate of exceeded on
Spread at 1.02 per day 1 1 -
Spread at 1.06 per day 2 1 -
Spread at 1.10 per day 3 11 End Apr
Spread at 1.14 per day 5 26 9th Apr
Spread at 1.17 per day 7 51 1st Apr
Spread at 1.20 per day 9 95 27th Mar
Spread at 1.23 per day 12 177 24th Mar
Spread at 1.26 per day 16 323 21st Mar
Spread at 1.29 per day 21 528 18th Mar

*(Assuming all critical care beds are currently empty and staffed, capacity ~275)

Assuming an even but varying distribution of index values over the max range of 43 days would probably put critical care bed capacity exceeded by end March.

Based on personal observation normal avg. stay 1-2/3 days, virus seems to be in 10-14 day range.

Very rough calcs based on readily available info.

As COPD least of my complications would appreciate, someone proving above crazily pessimistic.

Was reading a few articles on the virus, not mass hysteria type articles I must add.
I think what needs to be done is all events go ahead as normal, ie Rugby, Parades.
What needs to happen is all over 65s and anyone with compromised immune systems self isolates. These are the risk zone.
No one in the risk zone is allowed travel.
This allows the economy to suffer minimal disruption and production in theory should continue with minimal disruption also.
I do know the virus can seriously affect anyone regardless of age or health but the chances of that are greatly reduced.
Self isolating the minority makes the most sense and allows business as normal until a vaccine is found.

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

Been following these threads for the past few days and made a really basic page to track the cases in Ireland. Figured I may as well share it here. Manually updated (for now) with data from the HSE and NI agencies, any other sources are linked on the sources page (typically RTÉ/IT reporting of HSE figures).

link

If you're that way inclined there is a comprehensive database to webscrape from (maintained by JHU) https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 if you wanted to automate it

Miike wrote: »

I hate to be this guy, but I'm really hoping you'd answer my question in relation to PCR 'not working'. Link below.

It doesn't work. How can a system where the answer is we are not testing you, its too early to tell and you are showing no symptoms (of which symptoms are not a requirement) and we don't want to say its negative, only for that to change in a few days time, work ? Come back in 10 days, when you won't need a test as you'll need a tube inserted into you to help you breathe. We'll then confirm its coronavirus as an afterthought for our numbers.

Not alone does it not work, it fuels an already bláse and carefree "it will be grand" attitude, that is already out there. Voluntary isolation is another issue, heavily influenced by economic wherewithal and social and personal responsibility.

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

Hadn't looked at the figures for a couple of days, I knew Italy was bad but holy crap the figures coming out of there lately are just nuts.

What do others think has happened there to cause this?

Compared to the rest of Europe (and the world actually) they have a crazy number of cases.

Is this just down to testing high numbers and the elevated death rate there explained by the demographic of higher population of older residents?

10% of all deaths worldwide from this have been recorded in Italy.

Age I’m afraid, as of last Friday all deaths were over 60 with compromised health

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

Hadn't looked at the figures for a couple of days, I knew Italy was bad but holy crap the figures coming out of there lately are just nuts.

What do others think has happened there to cause this?

Compared to the rest of Europe (and the world actually) they have a crazy number of cases.

Is this just down to testing high numbers and the elevated death rate there explained by the demographic of higher population of older residents?

10% of all deaths worldwide from this have been recorded in Italy.

Cases is driven by testing. Fatalities is a mixture of demographics and their health system collapsing - we know from China that bad cases of CV need a lot of intervention. Combine old folks with major outbreak and you get to the situation where today officials and doctors have out and out said, we are going to triage and prioritise healthier, younger cases.

User mileage will vary on CV based on your nations ability to contain the spread and then deal with the infected. These are two different but related problems. Do you believe that for example the Irish health system with all its trolley problems is robust enough to deal with a serious number of serious CV cases. If not, then both CV patients and patients with other conditions who would otherwise receive excellent care will die in larger numbers than somewhere with a comparatively better health system.

nocoverart wrote: »

What fooking meteor is this? time for the bunker now me thinks : )

I'm told if you wear a face mask it won't hit you. Ignore the so-called experts.