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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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  • #722
    Phibsboro
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,376 ✭✭✭Phibsboro


    thebaz wrote: »
    according to this website China has only had 80,000 cases for a population of 1 Billion - Why are we expecting around 40% infecions when China where the number of infections are now reducing daily only had 80,000 , given the poplulation of Wuhan the epi -centre is 11 million.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    Wuhan was completely locked down when China was at 571 cases/ 17 deaths. Highways blocked, no rail or air traffic in or out. They followed that up by locking people into their apartment blocks. And they still hit 80,000 cases. Italy is the place to look at for population infections, the coming weeks will tell a tale.


  • #723
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,646 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Ariah Happy Rooster wrote: »
    They've already resigned themselves to this:

    link Is the inability to close down workplaces etc simply to have less damage on those (already bailed out) banker*ankers, or stocks/shareholders who want to keep shop doors, and tourists arriving for a parade, no matter what happens to the simple people of the land as a result?

    Where would you do your shopping if all the shops are closed?


  • #724
    delly
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 7,767 Mod ✭✭✭✭delly


    Portmarnock Golf Club have sent a mail to members to confirm an existing member has been diagnosed with the virus and they are following HSE protocol etc.


  • #725
    boege
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 469 ✭✭boege


    Ariah Happy Rooster wrote: »
    They've already resigned themselves to this:

    link Is the inability to close down workplaces etc simply to have less damage on those (already bailed out) banker*ankers, or stocks/shareholders who want to keep shop doors, and tourists arriving for a parade, no matter what happens to the simple people of the land as a result?

    Companies are way ahead. They are already executing contingency plans for remote working in many cases.

    This is not about big business, this is about a system that is acting too slowly.


  • #726
    Hodors Appletart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,441 ✭✭✭Hodors Appletart


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Regarding exponential growth, wouldn't the virus get to everybody eventually?

    no, some people will be immune


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  • #727
    lostatsea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 320 ✭✭lostatsea


    WriteThings wrote: »
    I don't think there's any fault to your logic here in terms of numbers and chronology, but you're discounting the fact that China is a very different country with a very different government, and that the CCP have taken several draconian measures to reach the levels of containment they've reached.

    In affected Chinese provinces, public areas are still being disinfected pretty much constantly. And they're empty, because every household has one "pass" that allows one person to leave their home once every three days to get essential provisions. The penalties for breaking quarantine are severe. Doors have been welded closed to ensure compliance. People suspected of having Covid-19, who may well have no more than a common cold, have been dragged off into quarantine where they are much more likely to actually get it.

    I don't see any Western government attempting these measures, let alone doing so with any success. And that's why I think the spread in European countries and the USA will continue on without seeing the same dip until so many people have been infected that herd immunity starts to have a protective effect or a vaccine is produced.

    Yes, I agree with what is being said about China and how their government can impose restrictions that other governments would find difficult.
    On the other hand China appeared to deny the existence of the virus for a long time allowing it to spread rapidly in the early days before they started taking action to control it.

    I suppose my point was how surprised I was at how quickly the number of Active cases came down. Once the Recovery cases kick in, the spread seems to rapidly decrease as the number of carriers is greatly reduced. Also, the recovery time is quite quick averaging only about two weeks.

    It appears to me everyone is solely concentrating on one side of the equation: the increase in Confirmed case. Europe should see significant recovery numbers in about a week.


  • #728
    mloc123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,454 ✭✭✭mloc123


    Cilldara_2000 wrote: »
    Why did you jump by a factor of 20 between May 17 and May 27?

    Hahaha. By his calculations the entire country will be infected by the start of August... Nobody will have died or recovered.


  • #729
    WhiteMemento9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,575 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Deleted User wrote: »
    If that's what you believe. I am trying to be completely honest and rational in my responses on this thread. I genuinely am passionate for patient safety and would hate to see some of the panic on this thread lead to an entirely preventable death.

    It was completely rational though for people to think that something might not be right with the numbers reported over the weekend considering they don't tally with everything we know about the virus or correlation with other data trends. Hopefully, we have continued testing the same number of cases over the weekend and those numbers are the numbers but that information doesn't seem publicly available and is just guesswork at the moment on both sides to where we currently stand. I have to say I would be weighted more towards testing has dropped significantly over the weekend just due to that being the more logical answer given what we know but let's wait and see.


  • #730
    dan786
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,341 ✭✭✭dan786


    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1236670272591323136?s=20


  • #731
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    As we have seen in other countries, people have been tested, been given the all clear only for it to pop up at a later stage and test positive.

    Its a difficult virus.

    To think this came from one person eating a bat.


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  • #732
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,646 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Phibsboro wrote: »
    Wuhan was completely locked down when China was at 571 cases/ 17 deaths. Highways blocked, no rail or air traffic in or out. They followed that up by locking people into their apartment blocks. And they still hit 80,000 cases. Italy is the place to look at for population infections, the coming weeks will tell a tale.

    South Korea is the worst in cases per million of population. Switzerland and Norway are next after Italy in Europe.


  • #733
    dan786
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,341 ✭✭✭dan786


    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1236668072016125952?s=20


  • #734
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Cilldara_2000 wrote: »
    Why did you jump by a factor of 20 between May 17 and May 27?
    Typo, here get the projection from the HSE instead of my very conservative double period rates:


    The Health Service Executive has said that it cannot dispute projections that 1.9 million people in the Republic of Ireland may fall ill with coronavirus.
    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0308/1120943-covid-19/


  • #735
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    spurious wrote: »
    I 'speculate' it's 15 million in Cabra alone.
    Actually it is thought to be in the region of 14.9 million


  • #736
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 78,458 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    CinemaGuy45 wrote: »
    First post of the thread.

    IBTL



    :pac:


  • #737
    mloc123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,454 ✭✭✭mloc123


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    South Korea is the worst in cases per million of population. Switzerland and Norway are next after Italy in Europe.

    And yet SK have the lowest death rate... Because they are testing at a much higher volume and catching more mild cases than other countries.


  • #738
    05eaftqbrs9jlh
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,104 ✭✭✭05eaftqbrs9jlh


    Phibsboro wrote: »
    Wuhan was completely locked down when China was at 571 cases/ 17 deaths. Highways blocked, no rail or air traffic in or out. They followed that up by locking people into their apartment blocks. And they still hit 80,000 cases. Italy is the place to look at for population infections, the coming weeks will tell a tale.
    China's authoritarian government were able to effectively implement these measures early on using mandatory quarantine zones, draconian (but arguably necessary) approaches to enforcing the lock down and sent people rations.

    Europe's countries are refusing to send medical supplies to each other, encouraging maintaining the status quo until well beyond the capacity of their health services and state broadcasters are urging us to keep calm, carry on going to restaurants and bars, gather together.
    Cilldara_2000 wrote: »
    .

    Wrong. That was McConkey.
    If you go back and read my post again, I mention Paul Reid separately. Didn't know the other guest's name was McConkey until later. You're quoting a quote.


  • #739
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    boege wrote: »
    Companies are way ahead. They are already executing contingency plans for remote working in many cases.

    This is not about big business, this is about a system that is acting too slowly.
    A slow system for the purpose of.... (cash flows, profits, stocks, shares, bankers).
    Otherwise, start with canceling the big green parade.
    Hodors Appletart wrote: »
    no, some people will be immune
    Antibodies are good for about 14days, after that, reinfection could loom.


  • #740
    dan786
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,341 ✭✭✭dan786


    Fourth ship now

    https://twitter.com/taydolven/status/1236660510147383301?s=20


  • #741
    Cilldara_2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,189 ✭✭✭Cilldara_2000


    Ariah Happy Rooster wrote: »
    Typo, here get the projection from the HSE instead of my very conservative double period rates:


    The Health Service Executive has said that it cannot dispute projections that 1.9 million people in the Republic of Ireland may fall ill with coronavirus.
    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0308/1120943-covid-19/

    And as has been said already, ofc they can't dispute it. We all know there's a chance of this, that and the other. And they haven't finished their own data model yet - it's too early.


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  • #742
    saabsaab
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Cilldara_2000 wrote: »
    Misinformation central here today.



    Wrong he said 30,000 deaths in total per year.



    Wrong. That was McConkey.



    He didn’t say 20,000 minimum. He said it could be 20,000 or it could be as high as 80 to 100k.

    You can listen back to verify: https://www.rte.ie/radio/

    It’s near the start. Paul Reid first, then McConkey.



    McConkey refused to say whether he thought it should go ahead or not. He said we should all row together and he used the analogy of the O’Donovan rowers pulling together. He then went on to say that being outside is not a big deal and he could see a lot of holidays on the Wild Atlantic Way. Outdoor events are different to indoor gigs etc. He said Paddy’s Day is what we are and we need to maintain social solidarity and community etc and Paddy’s Day is one way to do that.




    Chilling interview shows what we are facing. He said he didn't want to get into the debate about the parade and said that in the open air with wind and sun the risk would not be great. However, he didn't mention anything anout the pubs after!


  • #743
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    I really hope the sun, temperature or whatever helps to kill of the virus.


  • #744
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    Where would you do your shopping if all the shops are closed?
    As mentioned (several times) before all my shooping was completed Dec-Jan.

    Might get the odd pint of milk, or newspaper as don't want to crack open the UHT and powderwhite milk yet.

    For anyone else unprepared they may get their dry pasta via supermarket delivery, left in a box at their gate.


  • #745
    UrbanFret
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,051 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    We need someone to copper fasten their claim for the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine quickly. I'm sure the worlds best are working fervently to try and get a handle on this virus.


  • #746
    Cilldara_2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,189 ✭✭✭Cilldara_2000


    Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote:
    If you go back and read my post again, I mention Paul Reid separately. Didn't know the other guest's name was McConkey until later. You're quoting a quote.

    It's post #424. There's no quote in front of the bit where you said that Paul Reid talked about the Wild Atlantic Way etc:
    Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »
    Paul Reid refusing to comment on Tarik saying we need action to fight this. He said unilateral action is totally out of the equation and strong centralised health leadership will sort this. He says he sees a lot of holidays on the Wild Atlantic Way because the virus gets blown away by the wind and killed by UV rays but not many gigs taking place. He's delusional. He's talking now about Leo Varadkar leading us out of this.


  • #747
    JDD
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭JDD


    What are Singapore doing so right?? Their first case was weeks ago, mid-January, and they’re only at 150 cases with no deaths???


  • #748
    NegativeCreep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,351 ✭✭✭NegativeCreep


    Oh lord the bickering over figures and predictions in this thread is extremely annoying and childish. Just ignore the posts and they will stop. Let’s discuss actual news and methods for preparedness and things we can actually be sure of.


  • #749
    tillyfilly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 567 ✭✭✭tillyfilly


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    I really hope the sun, temperature or whatever helps to kill of the virus.

    Corona virus is perfect in the sun, with lyme disease


  • #750
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/100-cuh-staff-now-in-self-isolation-as-result-of-coronavirus-case-986522.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
    Initially when the case was identified, 60 staff were told to self-isolate. However, the HSE has now confirmed that number is closer to 100.


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  • #751
    Cilldara_2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,189 ✭✭✭Cilldara_2000


    Blueshoe wrote: »
    Pie in sky figure.
    But if 1.9 million people had the virus this country will economically collapse and there will be no coming back from it .

    Why? Would the ~4.5million who don't get sick all decide to lie down and die?

    We had a far worse disaster in this country 170 years ago. Far worse than any multiple of the potential worst case scenarios being outlined now. It didn't lead to economic collapse with no coming back from it.

    There's a chance there will be an economic collapse but there absolutely will be a way back from it. There always is. We had an economic collapse recently. We didn't stay collapsed.
    rossie1977 wrote: »
    20,000 infections would completely shutdown the country. Remember they only had 80,000 or so confirmed cases in the whole of China. Even if all the cases occurred in Hubei which has 12 times Irelands population, 20,000 would be three times as many infections as Hubei.

    Talk of a million infections in Ireland and this country is back in the dark ages.

    Again, why would the healthy ~4.5 million revert to a hunter gatherer society?


This discussion has been closed.
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