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Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

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Comments

  • #8312
    leavingirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 551 ✭✭✭leavingirl


    Call Me Jimmy wrote: »
    Those stats are rational logical but not the relevant point. Just keep an eye on what you see from South Korea on the news later this week, maximum 2 weeks. And the week after that in Italy. Then look back at how relevant it was trying to determine the death rates at the moment.

    It's not us doom merchants. It's the WHO who say you have to shut the surrounding region down as soon possible (they say it in a somewhat diplomatic way of course). And what happens if you don't is what we'll be watching in Italy and South Korea on RTE.

    He then scaled Italy's current numbers for our population being about 80 cases and 4 deaths. Look at the rate of change not the current amount. The WHO said the only thing that slows down the rate of change is draconian measures. So unless Italy really shuts the whole country down and bans travel it will increase until it naturally decelerates. China moved heaven and earth to try and avoid that.

    The WHO have a very questionable record when it comes to epidemics such as SARs, ZIKA, SWINE FLU


  • #8313
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,610 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    tom1ie wrote: »
    That’s from
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

    " as of 24:00 on Feb. 3"


  • #8314
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,995 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    The Satanist wrote: »
    Just as Ireland survives gangland warfare and Storm Hor Gay, along comes the Corona plague to finish us off. I can't want until Liveline on Monday.

    Liveline will be gold. Don’t know how joe will cope.
    I hope Robbie phones in again!


  • #8315
    neonsofa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,476 ✭✭✭neonsofa


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Liveline will be gold. Don’t know how joe will cope.
    I hope Robbie phones in again!

    Joe, joe, joe

    Gas!


  • #8316
    thebaz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,842 ✭✭✭✭thebaz


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Why discount though. Should we not be paying more attention to them?
    They are not epicentre, yet show serious infection and death rates. What’s going on there. Why is that happening. How do we make sure it doesn’t happen here.

    whose figures would you say are more accurate - Italy and South Korea or Iran ? I know who's figures I would rely on.

    I would say Iran are playing down how many cases they have, by a lot.


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  • #8317
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,995 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    thats from Feb 3rd

    At top of page:
    Last updated: February 29, 4:40 GMT


  • #8318
    Nickla
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 134 ✭✭Nickla


    all about the mane wrote: »
    Someone actually talking sense

    why is the assumption that 50% are undetected?


  • #8319
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    Do you not think the fact we're coming out of flu season will help in that there will be some hospital spaces freed up though?

    Yes of course. But the flu is a fact built in to health systems all over the world.

    This is new being thrown on top of a system that struggles to cope (in all countries) as it is.


  • #8320
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,995 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    thebaz wrote: »
    whose figures would you say are more accurate - Italy and South Korea or Iran ? I know who's figures I would rely on.

    I would say Iran are playing down how many cases they have, by a lot.

    Well hopefully not. Iran’s figures are bananas.


  • #8321
    the butcher
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 591 ✭✭✭the butcher


    The reason why there is so much discussion and "hype" over this virus is...

    1. It's new.
    2. New means we don't have a system in place to cope with it, like we do with the flu, like cancer and all the other diseases or accidents some mad posters like to compare this to for some bizarre reasoning?!
    3. It's far more infectious than the flu.
    4. Death rate is higher than the flu.
    5. Irish aspect is we have no capacity to deal with it. We don't have extra staff or resources, we can't magic them out of thin air.
    6. This means our choices are to not treat some people and risk them dying or....not treat others in a&e...leading to more indirect deaths and life changing incidents for others.
    7. We have the HSE telling people to ring their GPs and GPs having to tell those people to ring the HSE. There is little to no confidence in the HSE to handle this upcoming outbreak.


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  • #8322
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,276 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    But again you kinda get it but you don't get it.

    It's the other consequences on top of the cases and the deaths that have countries all over the world scrambling to contain it.

    This virus could cripple health services around the world on it's rate of required hospitalisations alone.

    The problems are broader than just the virus.

    I'm not having a go at you but i'm blue in the face seeing these irrelevant numbers on the flu etc with no proper understanding of the underlying problems uniquely associated with this particular epidemic/pandemic.

    That doesn't make the numbers irrelevant. The only figures I discounted were the epicentre (whose health system was crippled beyond any imagination, not least because they didn't know what they were dealing with) and Iran for obvious reasons.

    The figures include all the other areas with large outbreaks.

    Yeah, they exclude the chances of people currently sick dying. But they very much include the pressure on hospitals (to date). Will it get worse as spread speeds up? Sure. I've mentioned they are optimistic.

    As bad as the doomsday prophecies though... no, probably not.

    I don't disbelieve or discount the day to day effects other than on people's health. This is going to be a very big deal for the world and a lot of the precautions are very justified and knock-on consequences are inevitable. I don't question that. Just trying to provide reassurance to people as regards the slightly more serious concern they might have i.e. is it going to knock them off their particular perch.


  • #8323
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    laurah591 wrote: »
    Fr336 what happened with the 21 yr old? was that the woman Iranium footballer?


    Unfortunately so. And I was wrong she was 23


  • #8324
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,610 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    tom1ie wrote: »
    At top of page:
    Last updated: February 29, 4:40 GMT

    yea but the figures you quoted were from the 3rd


  • #8325
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    all about the mane wrote: »
    60%. What experts would they be now?

    These:

    Prof. Gabriel Leung

    Expert on coronavirus epidemics 
    Chair of Public Health Medicine 
    Hong Kong University
     It could infect 60% of global population if unchecked

    Prof. Marc Lipsitch

    Prof. of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health
    Head, Harvard Ctr. Communicable Disease Dynamics
    I think it is likely we will see a global pandemic. If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-expert-opinions/


  • #8326
    thebaz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,842 ✭✭✭✭thebaz


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Well hopefully not. Iran’s figures are bananas.

    Irans figures are bananas , that why they should be discounted.


  • #8327
    silverharp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,854 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    thebaz wrote: »
    cause the Iranian figures don't add up - the death rate far exceeds anywher else , ther is conflicting reports from medics and government on the actual number of deaths themselves , I certainly would discount Iranian figures -

    Iranians aren't helping themselves, licking shrines to prove they have healing powers

    https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1233695235399700481

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • #8328
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Well hopefully not. Iran’s figures are bananas.

    Let's call a spade a spade, we are finding out the crooked countries from the straight up democracies in this crisis.

    Silver lining.


  • #8329
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    The UK considering calling back retired doctors and nurses to help with coming virus crisis according Sky News. Good luck with that.


  • #8330
    Call Me Jimmy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭Call Me Jimmy


    leavingirl wrote: »
    The WHO have a very questionable record when it comes to epidemics such as SARs, ZIKA, SWINE FLU

    Preaching to the converted, it's only because they were so reluctant that I half believe them. Plus if they aren't correct that'd mean China's containment didnt work at all and it's all a big lie, which I don't want to consider for obvious reasons


  • #8331
    billybonkers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,293 ✭✭✭billybonkers


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    Should Ireland be stopping anyone coming in from Italy

    Should other countries stop us from visiting them?


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  • #8332
    Kaisr Sose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,683 ✭✭✭Kaisr Sose


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    I'm not being pessimistic. Just being practical here. It can happen. If someone coughs on you, are you ok with that? There are alot of people out there who won't cover up if they sneeze.

    So am I. We have one case, which is now isolated. Outside that, who is coughing on who ? Stay healthy in self imposed quarantine of that makes it safer for you, and that me being practical. Not much more I can add given we have different views on the risk of infection.


  • #8333
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,803 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    thebaz wrote: »
    whose figures would you say are more accurate - Italy and South Korea or Iran ? I know who's figures I would rely on.

    South Korea's. Not so sure about Italy...


  • #8334
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,983 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    thebaz wrote: »
    cause the Iranian figures don't add up - the death rate far exceeds anywher else , ther is conflicting reports from medics and government on the actual number of deaths themselves , I certainly would discount Iranian figures -

    There is a theory(no evidence to back this up) that Iran were using steroids to try to combat the symptoms.
    And while these steroids will lower the immune response and people will feel better initially it inhibits people's ability to fight the virus.
    Might account for some of the higher fatality rate in Iran but the fatality figures are still insanely high.


  • #8335
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,995 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    sdanseo wrote: »
    That doesn't make the numbers irrelevant. The only figures I discounted were the epicentre (whose health system was crippled beyond any imagination, not least because they didn't know what they were dealing with) and Iran for obvious reasons.

    The figures include all the other areas with large outbreaks.

    Yeah, they exclude the chances of people currently sick dying. But they very much include the pressure on hospitals (to date). Will it get worse as spread speeds up? Sure. I've mentioned they are optimistic.

    As bad as the doomsday prophecies though... no, probably not.

    I don't disbelieve or discount the day to day effects other than on people's health. This is going to be a very big deal for the world and a lot of the precautions are very justified and knock-on consequences are inevitable. I don't question that. Just trying to provide reassurance to people as regards the slightly more serious concern they might have i.e. is it going to knock them off their particular perch.

    One way or the other c19 will have a big affect on Ireland Europe and the world. It’s already had a large effect financially on the stock market and in the supply chain in manufacturing.
    However mortality rates is where this will be judged and I just hope we don’t end up with something like Wuhan or Iran.


  • #8336
    Cupatae
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,915 ✭✭✭Cupatae


    leavingirl wrote: »
    The WHO have a very questionable record when it comes to epidemics such as SARs, ZIKA, SWINE FLU

    In there defense i think they ve a fairly tough job, its never gonna be perfect but we came out the otherside of all those mentioned


  • #8337
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    billybonkers wrote: »
    Should other countries stop us from visiting them?

    If we had the numbers Italy had a few days ago yes.


  • #8338
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    tuxy wrote: »
    There is a theory(no evidence to back this up) that Iran were using steroids to try to combat the symptoms.
    And while these steroids will lower the immune response and people will feel better initially it inhibits people's ability to fight the virus.
    Might account for some of the higher fatality rate in Iran but the figure is still insanely high.

    This is speculation on my part but is it possible Iran might be the ones telling the truth here?


  • #8339
    d51984
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 940 ✭✭✭d51984


    Jesus lads if it snows in the next few days boards.ie is going to explode in to a billion pieces!

    Its a disgrace Joe!



  • #8340
    Cupatae
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,915 ✭✭✭Cupatae


    It ll be interesting to see how our election will work out if it put to a re-election.. talk about ****e timing !


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  • #8341
    Westernyelp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,410 ✭✭✭Westernyelp


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Let's call a spade a spade, we are finding out the crooked countries from the straight up democracies in this crisis.

    Silver lining.

    True. we are also finding out the absolute loons on here. It's great


This discussion has been closed.
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