Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

mlem123 · 27-02-2020 04:29PM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

Any virologists, epidemologists on boards?
Would it be reasonable to think that the Irish Flu season should be nearing its end over the next 3 or 4 weeks? (It typically runs from October to early April)

Thereafter, people who present with a high Temperature,cough etc. will be far more likely to have Covid-19 rather than the Flu.

Surely the end of Flu Season should concentrate the effort to ramp up testing for the Coronavirus. Do the HSE have the resources to ramp up the testing and will they?

Because if it's not Flu in a few weeks, then what is it?... and I'm hoping to see validated figures when this hits, not figures based on clinical findings.

So far the scale of testing has been extremely limited.

Public Health Office's across the country have been doing just that. They just don't broadcast every decision or every step

jester77 · 27-02-2020 04:29PM

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Don’t have a Corona..

Wonder if it is having any impact on their sales, good or bad!

27-02-2020 04:30PM

Why would they see it in nursing homes?

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1233051374809755656?s=21

silverharp · 27-02-2020 04:31PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Posters who were asking about people who recovered and relapsing.

they didn't get into it there, just mentioned it in passing

Allinall · 27-02-2020 04:32PM

Cody montana wrote: »

Dow Jones down 800 points.

Don’t panic!

It's at the same level as October 2019.

Why would anyone be panicking?

givyjoe · 27-02-2020 04:32PM

fr336 wrote: »

As in Italy?

It's almost as if people dont realise this started with ONE infected patient!

pc7 · 27-02-2020 04:33PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Why would they see it in nursing homes?

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1233051374809755656?s=21

I think due to elderly being more susceptible, was very hard hear the presser, but last item he mentioned if it breaks out keep young kids away from grandparents. (open to correction, was struggling with sound).

RebelButtMunch · 27-02-2020 04:33PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Why would they see it in nursing homes?

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1233051374809755656?s=21

Old people catching it from asymptomatic visitors

mlem123 · 27-02-2020 04:33PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Why would they see it in nursing homes?

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1233051374809755656?s=21

Visitors and staff not washing hands or coming in with "just a cold"

Anything can spread like wildfire in a Nursing Home, often the people they care for have alzheimers or dementia or other problems that mean they won't remember to wash their hands or they don't understand. Nearly all hygiene for them has to be done by their carers.

BanditLuke · 27-02-2020 04:33PM

Cody montana wrote: »

Dow Jones down 800 points.

Don’t panic!

Sold my pork bellies last month

ldy4mxonucwsq6 · 27-02-2020 04:34PM

NIMAN wrote: »

Are there any worldwide figures to show what age the deaths are at?

No deaths in that age group according to this link, its appears to have a mild effect on under 10s and then similar death rate as flu for 10-20 year olds.

Interesting why it has little effect on young people, thankfully.

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/18/21142009/coronavirus-covid19-china-wuhan-deaths-pandemic

BanditLuke · 27-02-2020 04:36PM

Harry Freezing Bifocal wrote: »

No deaths in that age group according to this link, its appears to have a mild effect on under 10s and then similar death rate as flu for 10-20 year olds.

Interesting why it has little effect on young people, thankfully.

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/18/21142009/coronavirus-covid19-china-wuhan-deaths-pandemic

Mother nature has no issue with children I guess, as for the rest of us....

27-02-2020 04:36PM

I’m gonna sound really selfish here but I’ve my dad booked in to respite just for a long weekend in March. My head is fried being a carer and I really needed the break from it.

tillyfilly · 27-02-2020 04:38PM

Allinall wrote: »

It's at the same level as October 2019.

Why would anyone be panicking?

correction/bear market territory due to black swan/grey rhino event

EltonJohn69 · 27-02-2020 04:39PM

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Don’t have a Corona..

i actually just bought a box of it.....actually started drinking corona as my beer of choice a few weeks ago... when all this started.....i think I'm living in a simulation.....

DrumSteve · 27-02-2020 04:39PM

tillyfilly wrote: »

correction/bear market territory due to black swan/grey rhino event

The money is going to go somewhere.

Probably into Gold.

Honestly, the stock market is the least of our issues at the moment.

Ludo · 27-02-2020 04:42PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I’m gonna sound really selfish here but I’ve my dad booked in to respite just for a long weekend in March. My head is fried being a carer and I really needed the break from it.

Nothing selfish about that at all. You need to look after yourself also or you cant look after him.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-02-2020 04:42PM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1233052330460884998

laurah591 · 27-02-2020 04:43PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Why would they see it in nursing homes?

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1233051374809755656?s=21

Nursing Homes will have lots of vulnerable people susceptible to infection with lots of family members and employees who might bring infection in (those asymptomatic carriers)

Duke of Url · 27-02-2020 04:44PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1233052330460884998

Pope Francis sick a day after supporting coronavirus sufferers

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/pope-francis-sick-a-day-after-supporting-coronavirus-sufferers/

tillyfilly · 27-02-2020 04:44PM

DrumSteve wrote: »

The money is going to go somewhere.

Probably into Gold.

Honestly, the stock market is the least of our issues at the moment.

true but a crash will be a double whammy, it will devastate many

Ficheall · 27-02-2020 04:45PM

pc7 wrote: »

HSE doing a live briefing, have to say very informative and good info, Richard Chambers doing a good synopsis https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1233040419660931073?s=20

If he posted a link to the briefing, it would be more useful than his synopsis tweets, though obviously not in his twitter interests. Anyone manage to find the link?

Rob A. Bank · 27-02-2020 04:46PM

Coronavirus maps and charts: A visual guide to the outbreak

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105

A good factual and visual overview of the epidemic from the BBC today

.

DrumSteve · 27-02-2020 04:47PM

DrumSteve wrote: »

I've taken the figures from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries and removed any reference to China and Iran (as I cannot judge their figures to be correct) to get a better understanding of the rates:

Country, New Cases Deaths New Deaths Recovered Critical
S. Korea 1,766 505 13 1 24 18
Diamond Princess 705 4 10 36
Italy 470 12 3 35
Japan 207 35 4 1 32 13
Singapore 93 62 7
Hong Kong 89 2 18 6
USA 60 6
Kuwait 43 17
Thailand 40 22 2
Bahrain 33
Taiwan 32 1 5 1
Germany 27 15 2
Australia 23 15
Malaysia 22 20
France 18 2 11 1
Vietnam 16 16
U.K. 15 2 8
Spain 14 1 2
U.A.E. 13 3 2
Canada 12 3
Macao 10 6
Iraq 6 1
Oman 4
Philippines 3 1 2
Croatia 3
India 3 3
Austria 2
Finland 2 1
Israel 2
Lebanon 2
Pakistan 2
Russia 2 2
Sweden 2
Switzerland 2 1
Afghanistan 1
Algeria 1
Belgium 1 1
Brazil 1
Cambodia 1 1
Denmark 1 1
Egypt 1 1
Estonia 1 1
Georgia 1
Greece 1
North Macedonia 1
Nepal 1 1
Norway 1
Romania 1
Sri Lanka 1 1
Total 3,758 564 39 2 294 123

Based on the above, the CFR (so far) is 1% though I would expect this to go up.

The 8% CFR as it currently stands, I'm not so sure that is correct as we don't know for sure whats happening in China and Iran. China says its coming down, but it's hard to tell accurately where they started from. Though it appears what they are doing seems to be working to bring it down.

There are some reasons though to remain calm about this while taking it seriously:

- Most of us are going to get this at some point, I've accepted that at this stage.
- It's not going to be pleasant but even if your in the oldest age bracket you've got an 85% chance of survival.
- If your under 50, you've got a 99% chance of survival.
- Kids don't seem to succumb to this at all, which is great news.

The key thing that will enable high survival rates, is maintaining the ability for potentially large quantities of people to access ICU and medical facilities should they get critical.

I think, personally, more should be done to advise people what specifically qualifies as "Critical" to help identify these issues earlier.

So I've taken another look at the figures and something jumped out to me:

Italy 528 +58 14 +2 42 35

In the last couple of hours, Italy has cleared an additional 39 people on to their recovered list, which is great news to be honest. The severe and critical list remains the same.

With 14 people dying from 528 confirmed cases, they are coming in at 2% CFR.

Ficheall · 27-02-2020 04:48PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Pope Francis sick a day after supporting coronavirus sufferers

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/pope-francis-sick-a-day-after-supporting-coronavirus-sufferers/

I can't remember where I saw it (pretty sure it was a reputable source though) that only 4% of sufferers have upper respiratory tract symptoms, so blowing his nose would suggest it's more likely just a cold? Though the dead ambassador isn't a good sign..

The Nal · 27-02-2020 04:48PM

DrumSteve wrote: »

So I've taken another look at the figures and something jumped out to me:

Italy 528 +58 14 +2 42 35

In the last couple of hours, Italy has cleared an additional 39 people on to their recovered list, which is great news to be honest. The severe and critical list remains the same.

With 14 people dying from 528 confirmed cases, they are coming in at 2% CFR.

So are people fully recovering in 2-3 days?

all about the mane · 27-02-2020 04:48PM

tillyfilly wrote: »

correction/bear market territory due to black swan/grey rhino event

if we are discussing black swan/grey rhino territory on here, its time to buy

ThePopehimself · 27-02-2020 04:48PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I’m gonna sound really selfish here but I’ve my dad booked in to respite just for a long weekend in March. My head is fried being a carer and I really needed the break from it.

No, not selfish at all. A wonderful decision for both you and your dad. If you are fried, he has nothing

This way, you both win.

DrumSteve · 27-02-2020 04:49PM

The Nal wrote: »

So are people fully recovering in 2-3 days?

Honestly I don't know, I thought you're looking at up to 14 days from onset to recovery dependant on severity.

tillyfilly · 27-02-2020 04:50PM

all about the mane wrote: »

if we are discussing black swan/grey rhino territory on here, its time to buy

that's the elephant in the room

Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

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