Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

Cal04 · 27-02-2020 10:20AM

Would you go to Germany today, the capital

Kermit.de.frog · 27-02-2020 10:20AM

BanditLuke wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-two-people-who-returned-from-italy-and-tenerife-test-positive-in-uk-11944283

Oh dear

Be surprising if we go 24 more hours without a confirmed case.

Cal04 · 27-02-2020 10:21AM

Would you go to Germany today, one child with asthma

Sigma101 · 27-02-2020 10:22AM

A couple of years ago BBC4 did a modelling exercise to understand the impact of a pandemic like this in the UK. They found that it would infect 2/3 of the population. This was a realistic scenario using transmission rates similar to Covid-19. Their findings are published in an open-access academic journal paper here.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436518300306?via%3Dihub

A similar scenario in Ireland would see over 3 million people infected within a year. Given what’s known about Covid-19 at this stage, 650,000 people (nearly 20%) would therefore have severe symptoms. 160,000 (5%) would be critical and would require intensive care, and over 60,000 people would die. It’s worth noting again that epidemiologists are beginning to form the view that this pandemic could be an annual occurrence.

The study also found that preventive measures such as hand sanitising could slow the rate of infection and reduce the numbers infected by a third.

yosemitesam1 · 27-02-2020 10:23AM

Is there any news of where movement restrictions are in place, is there any systems in place to allow farmers etc carry out work with some sort normality?

Kermit.de.frog · 27-02-2020 10:23AM

First Up wrote: »

Face masks are hard to find at the moment but are they any defence against catching it? I always thought they just stopped people spreading it.

The latter AFAIK and pretty pointless for the former though if it makes people feel better...

BanditLuke · 27-02-2020 10:23AM

Cal04 wrote: »

Would you go to Germany today, one child with asthma

Absolutely not a chance. Please don't take the risk with someone with a condition unless it is completely unavoidable.

Ninthlife · 27-02-2020 10:24AM

Can someone PM me when its time to panic....thanks

tillyfilly · 27-02-2020 10:24AM

Sigma101 wrote: »

A couple of years ago BBC4 did a modelling exercise to understand the impact of a pandemic like this in the UK. They found that it would infect 2/3 of the population. This was a realistic scenario using transmission rates similar to Covid-19. Their findings are published in an open-access academic journal paper here.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436518300306?via%3Dihub

A similar scenario in Ireland would see over 3 million people infected within a year. Given what’s known about Covid-19 at this stage, 650,000 people (nearly 20%) would therefore have severe symptoms. 160,000 (5%) would be critical and would require intensive care, and over 60,000 people would die. It’s worth noting again that epidemiologists are beginning to form the view that this pandemic could be an annual occurrence.

The study also found that preventive measures such as hand sanitising could slow the rate of infection and reduce the numbers infected by a third.

its around now a hermitage would be handy

pc7 · 27-02-2020 10:26AM

I would like to see the HSE cancel all non necessary surgery's now, keeps as many beds free, deep clean them all now, have spaces set up so when this kicks off (which it will we can handle the wave). Get staff usually involved in those surgery's up to speed on dealing with something so infectious (if they aren't already), how to trace and track contacts etc. Same with porters etc, have the plan and protocols ready, where are spare beds, how are the cleaned/disposed of etc. Start looking at other spaces that can be used to house sick people if numbers grow too big. This is coming and the fear I have is that I don't know that we (as a country are ready), I feel there should be daily briefings from the government, let us know they are on this. The parties should stop talking sh1te saying I won't go in with this one, that one and work together during this unprecedented time we are about to face.

If we are lucky and deaths are low, think about even a single death from corona, no laid out to mourn and say goodbye as we do here, no consoling, hugging, comforting each other due to risk that close members are carriers. It compounds the loss imo.

Hector Savage · 27-02-2020 10:26AM

Bad news bad news bad news .... it's like death by a 1000 cuts ...

Anything positive at all ?

BanditLuke · 27-02-2020 10:28AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Bad news bad news bad news .... it's like death by a 1000 cuts ...

Anything positive at all ?

It seems to not effect children unless they suffer from a pre existing condition.

27-02-2020 10:28AM

Boggles wrote: »

2.8% male compared to 1.7% female.

Typical men, "I'm grand".

Years of sex selective abortions in China has led to far more men than women in some age groups. Not sure if that cohort is old enough to skew the stats?

dominatinMC · 27-02-2020 10:29AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Bad news bad news bad news .... it's like death by a 1000 cuts ...

Anything positive at all ?

It's not been confirmed here...yet!

Although I'm not naive enough to believe it isn't here already

Hector Savage · 27-02-2020 10:30AM

So untill yesterday the growth rate was slowing in China, but apparently it's back up ?

super_furry · 27-02-2020 10:33AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

So untill yesterday the growth rate was slowing in China, but apparently it's back up ?

Honestly given the nature of the Chinese state, it's hard to believe anything 'official' from them.

wadacrack · 27-02-2020 10:33AM

Good listen. Very informative doctor.

https://twitter.com/Shaughnessy119/status/1232797722371076096

27-02-2020 10:34AM

MarkY91 wrote: »

They were grown adults. And they weren't children anime characters. Nothing that will interest a child. They wore it as a fashion accessory. Attention seeking. This was a month ago when the virus was only in China ffs....

Tell us more about this attention seeking.

27-02-2020 10:36AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Bad news bad news bad news .... it's like death by a 1000 cuts ...

Anything positive at all ?

The positive is that Ireland is an island and could limit cases because of this......ahem

ThePopehimself · 27-02-2020 10:39AM

Cal04 wrote: »

Would you go to Germany today, one child with asthma

No. There's no way I'd take that chance.

Loafing Oaf · 27-02-2020 10:39AM

Probably too late to make much of a difference with this epidemic, but before the next one like this hits, the powers that be will need to be drawing up a gameplan for severe restriction of movements between countries at an early stage in its development.

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should be beamed around the world

VinLieger · 27-02-2020 10:40AM

Deleted User wrote: »

The positive is that Ireland is an island and could limit cases because of this......ahem

Yeah if we had closed our airports in the middle of January maybe, there's no question its here now imo

pheasant tail · 27-02-2020 10:41AM

Cal04 wrote: »

Would you go to Germany today, the capital

I’ve been in Berlin for the last week, attending the Berlin film festival, people here from all over the world with over 400,000 tickets sold. A lot of travel involved in relation to that for people when they start heading back home! No signs of any changes out here yet anyway.

27-02-2020 10:41AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Yeah if we had closed our airports in the middle of January maybe, there's no question its here now imo

Agree, however we can still limit the damage.

DrumSteve · 27-02-2020 10:42AM

I've taken the figures from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries and removed any reference to China and Iran (as I cannot judge their figures to be correct) to get a better understanding of the rates:

Country, New Cases Deaths New Deaths Recovered Critical
S. Korea 1,766 505 13 1 24 18
Diamond Princess 705 4 10 36
Italy 470 12 3 35
Japan 207 35 4 1 32 13
Singapore 93 62 7
Hong Kong 89 2 18 6
USA 60 6
Kuwait 43 17
Thailand 40 22 2
Bahrain 33
Taiwan 32 1 5 1
Germany 27 15 2
Australia 23 15
Malaysia 22 20
France 18 2 11 1
Vietnam 16 16
U.K. 15 2 8
Spain 14 1 2
U.A.E. 13 3 2
Canada 12 3
Macao 10 6
Iraq 6 1
Oman 4
Philippines 3 1 2
Croatia 3
India 3 3
Austria 2
Finland 2 1
Israel 2
Lebanon 2
Pakistan 2
Russia 2 2
Sweden 2
Switzerland 2 1
Afghanistan 1
Algeria 1
Belgium 1 1
Brazil 1
Cambodia 1 1
Denmark 1 1
Egypt 1 1
Estonia 1 1
Georgia 1
Greece 1
North Macedonia 1
Nepal 1 1
Norway 1
Romania 1
Sri Lanka 1 1
Total 3,758 564 39 2 294 123

Based on the above, the CFR (so far) is 1% though I would expect this to go up.

The 8% CFR as it currently stands, I'm not so sure that is correct as we don't know for sure whats happening in China and Iran. China says its coming down, but it's hard to tell accurately where they started from. Though it appears what they are doing seems to be working to bring it down.

There are some reasons though to remain calm about this while taking it seriously:

- Most of us are going to get this at some point, I've accepted that at this stage.
- It's not going to be pleasant but even if your in the oldest age bracket you've got an 85% chance of survival.
- If your under 50, you've got a 99% chance of survival.
- Kids don't seem to succumb to this at all, which is great news.

The key thing that will enable high survival rates, is maintaining the ability for potentially large quantities of people to access ICU and medical facilities should they get critical.

I think, personally, more should be done to advise people what specifically qualifies as "Critical" to help identify these issues earlier.

Loafing Oaf · 27-02-2020 10:45AM

Wow Diamond Princess is now it's own country:p

Is this its national anthem?

PhoenixParker · 27-02-2020 10:47AM

DrumSteve wrote: »

I've taken the figures from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries and removed any reference to China and Iran (as I cannot judge their figures to be correct) to get a better understanding of the rates:

Country, New Cases Deaths New Deaths Recovered Critical
S. Korea 1,766 505 13 1 24 18
Diamond Princess 705 4 10 36
Italy 470 12 3 35
Japan 207 35 4 1 32 13
Singapore 93 62 7
Hong Kong 89 2 18 6
USA 60 6
Kuwait 43 17
Thailand 40 22 2
Bahrain 33
Taiwan 32 1 5 1
Germany 27 15 2
Australia 23 15
Malaysia 22 20
France 18 2 11 1
Vietnam 16 16
U.K. 15 2 8
Spain 14 1 2
U.A.E. 13 3 2
Canada 12 3
Macao 10 6
Iraq 6 1
Oman 4
Philippines 3 1 2
Croatia 3
India 3 3
Austria 2
Finland 2 1
Israel 2
Lebanon 2
Pakistan 2
Russia 2 2
Sweden 2
Switzerland 2 1
Afghanistan 1
Algeria 1
Belgium 1 1
Brazil 1
Cambodia 1 1
Denmark 1 1
Egypt 1 1
Estonia 1 1
Georgia 1
Greece 1
North Macedonia 1
Nepal 1 1
Norway 1
Romania 1
Sri Lanka 1 1
Total 3,758 564 39 2 294 123

Based on the above, the CFR (so far) is 0.01% though I would expect this to go up.

The 8% CFR as it currently stands, I'm not so sure that is correct as we don't know for sure whats happening in China and Iran. China says its coming down, but it's hard to tell accurately where they started from. Though it appears what they are doing seems to be working.

39 deaths in 3758 is 1% not 0.01%

retro:electro · 27-02-2020 10:48AM

Wasn’t there reports a few weeks ago that a woman carrying it in pregnancy had transmitted it to her baby once born? Does anyone know how the baby is doing since?

27-02-2020 10:48AM

BanditLuke wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-two-people-who-returned-from-italy-and-tenerife-test-positive-in-uk-11944283

Oh dear

For those that didn’t click link. This is straight from Uk.gov website

Two further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19, bringing the total number of UK cases to 15.

The virus was passed on in Italy and Tenerife and the patients have been transferred to specialist NHS infection centres in Royal Liverpool Hospital and the Royal Free Hospital, London.

DrumSteve · 27-02-2020 10:50AM

PhoenixParker wrote: »

39 deaths in 3758 is 1% not 0.01%

Cheers, fixed that there.

Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

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