Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

25-02-2020 01:05AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Expect that to turn on its head when everyone is forced back to work - the numbers have dropped due to forced isolation and only to be expected. That's not how epidemic plateauing works but the WHO are saying it is
There are reports of hospitals in Beijing shutting down due to new cases

If there was new cases and there were so serious. Why would a hospital shut down? Working in a hospital, you analyse and start treating no matter what has happened.

fritzelly · 25-02-2020 01:06AM

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Well it's not exactly like the bubonic plague is it.

People are getting flu like symptoms for a few weeks then recovering. If you're old or infirm there's a chance you could die (like the normal flu). This is being hyped up by the media and scaremongers.

It's currently more than 20 times deadlier than flu - got any elderly relatives?
And most of the comments about preparedness have been in relation to helping out their elderly parents et al

Call Me Jimmy · 25-02-2020 01:06AM

Deleted User wrote: »

WHO have said virus has peaked in China. If this is true, it's great news and a hammerblow to the doom mongers in this thread:)

I put a lot of faith in this to be true because the WHO would 100% be toast if it is any other way.

However, if true there is a very long way to go and am surprised you think it's smooth sailing from here all things considered.

fritzelly · 25-02-2020 01:09AM

Deleted User wrote: »

If there was new cases and there were so serious. Why would a hospital shut down? Working in a hospital, you analyse and start treating no matter what has happened.

Shutting down because there were no cases in the hospital - trying to prevent the spread (shutting down doesn't mean they actually close but stop all visitors, minimize intra ward infections etc)

25-02-2020 01:15AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Expect that to turn on its head when everyone is forced back to work - the numbers have dropped due to forced isolation and only to be expected. That's not how epidemic plateauing works but the WHO are saying it is
There are reports of hospitals in Beijing shutting down due to new cases

Not going to lie. I'd trust the WHO more than a hysterical person on boards.ie

10000maniacs · 25-02-2020 01:15AM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Yeah, the guy who contradicted me by saying it was another form of influenza in the previous thread got over 10 thanks.

It's as if everybody here is willing it to be the flu by the power of typing. A few sniffles for two weeks and all is well.
It's deadly serious, it's not the flu, and it's a hell of a lot worse then the flu.

fritzelly · 25-02-2020 01:21AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Not going to lie. I'd trust the WHO more than a hysterical person on boards.ie

We'll wait and see - how many cases outside China yesterday in populations of a smaller magnitude

One of the few YT channels I kinda trust for news from China - they do try and verify all the info
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nU3kmFjEuDI
(the texts are a few days old)

25-02-2020 01:23AM

I don't understand.

How can we say it's peaked in China when half the country (the hard hit areas) are still in quarantine.

Surely we can't say for sure it's peaked until some time after the quarantine ends??

Great to see the numbers infected there coming down so much. I certainly hope it's peaked, I just can't understand how that could be said with certainty at this time.

Can someone explain??

25-02-2020 01:24AM

fritzelly wrote: »

We'll wait and see - how many cases outside China yesterday in populations of a smaller magnitude

One of the few YT channels I kinda trust for news from China - they do try and verify all the info
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nU3kmFjEuDI
(the texts are a few days old)

God I remember when they accepted YouTube videos as references in my thesis. Those were the days.

saabsaab · 25-02-2020 01:26AM

Candamir wrote: »

We really need to stop the self flagellation here!
One of the guys colleagues tested positive (not multiple contacts) He discussed his exposure with the HSE, and they deemed the exposure not to be significant. So much so that they didn’t even ask him to self quarantine. Only he and the HSE know what that contact was, so it’s difficult for anyone to second guess.
They didn’t test him because see they deemed it unnecessary, and importantly, presumably a waste of resources.
On the one hand, a poster says Italy ran out of tests. On the other hand, we should be wasting tests on people we have no expectation of being positive??.

This is a brand new test, which seems to be throwing up a lot of false positives and negatives. It’s PCR, so probably requires a significant viral load to be positive. What are the chances of an asymptomatic, insignificant contact being positive inside a 2 week incubation period?

No one here knows the extent of our ‘preparedness’. But there are plans and protocols in place. The HSE aren’t just sitting on their arses and hoping for the best. They’re not wilfully not bothering to test either. That’s just nonsense talk.

In order of the above..

When exactly should a test be deemed necessary or not a waste of resources? Are there that many cases needing testing at this point that a known virus contactee is not worthy!
No expectation? There was a confirmed contact, are they already that overwhelmed with queries?
What are the chances of a positive? Well nobody really knows, all we can say now is he could be an asymptomatic carrier.

fritzelly · 25-02-2020 01:26AM

Deleted User wrote: »

God I remember when they accepted YouTube videos as references in my thesis. Those were the days.

Just remembered when Tedros was questioned about China making people go back to work in some of the badly hit areas. He stumbled over his answer basically saying he expects countries to do their best to protect their citizens - toeing the party line as always

Call Me Jimmy · 25-02-2020 01:28AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Just remembered when Tedros was questioned about China making people go back to work in some of the badly hit areas. He stumbled over his answer basically saying he expects countries to do their best to protect their citizens - toeing the party line as always

There won't be any ambiguity about any claims of people going back to work so we'll see pretty soon.

25-02-2020 01:31AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

God I remember when they accepted YouTube videos as references in my thesis. Those were the days.

Maybe you could answer my question as you seem confident in that statement.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't understand.

How can we say it's peaked in China when half the country (the hard hit areas) are still in quarantine.

Surely we can't say for sure it's peaked until some time after the quarantine ends??

Great to see the numbers infected there coming down so much. I certainly hope it's peaked, I just can't understand how that could be said with certainty at this time.

Can someone explain??

Akrasia · 25-02-2020 01:44AM

There are a lot of people on this thread who think Climate Scientists are ‘alarmists’ saying that we should all start panic buying and preparing for the worst...

A virus that we. An almost certainly cure within a year or so is a disaster but climate change that will have long term irreversible consequences is all just alarmism

fritzelly · 25-02-2020 01:49AM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232104784381042694

In Hubei itself

New Deaths - 68
New Confirmed - 499 (this is only coronary pneumonia)

Total Serious/Critical - 8,675‬

3 deaths outside Hubei and 9 new cases
Confused about the new confirmed cases - they are only counting cases that are at that point in the infection. Don't remember them saying that yesterday (will have to check but heading to the bar now)

25-02-2020 01:51AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe you could answer my question as you seem confident in that statement.

If you contain the spread of the virus. The hospitals don't get overwhelmed so people can be treated effectively. It reduces the burden on the health-care system.

25-02-2020 01:55AM

fritzelly wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232104784381042694

In Hubei itself

New Deaths - 68
New Confirmed - 499 (this is only coronary pneumonia)

Total Serious/Critical - 8,675‬

3 deaths outside Hubei and 9 new cases
Confused about the new confirmed cases - they are only counting cases that are at that point in the infection. Don't remember them saying that yesterday (will have to check but heading to the bar now)

I'm not familiar with the term coronary pneumonia. Does this involve mitral regurgitation or do you mean it causes acute cardiac syndrome secondary to the infection?

25-02-2020 01:55AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If you contain the spread of the virus. The hospitals don't get overwhelmed so people can be treated effectively. It reduces the burden on the health-care system.

But what's to stop the spread picking up again when the quarantine ends?

Kermit.de.frog · 25-02-2020 02:02AM

It is pointless posting China's figures unfortunately. The CCP decides what the narrative is and has done from the start.

25-02-2020 02:02AM

Deleted User wrote: »

But what's to stop the spread picking up again when the quarantine ends?

Theory is that if you are closer to high numbers of patients with corona virus. You get a higher viral load leading to worse outcomes.

Here's a paper that explains it simply enough.

fritzelly · 25-02-2020 02:03AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not familiar with the term coronary pneumonia. Does this involve mitral regurgitation or do you mean it causes acute cardiac syndrome secondary to the infection?

I'm reading it as have pneumonia as a result of the virus
Very confusing wording
If so that explains the sudden decrease in confirmed cases, unless you have pneumonia you are not counted

Anyone got an explanation

Kermit.de.frog · 25-02-2020 02:06AM

Important figures over the next few days will be from South Korea and Italy. They will be the most realistic measure of the scale and depth of the problem.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-02-2020 02:06AM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232108924087787522

gozunda · 25-02-2020 02:12AM

Akrasia wrote: »

There are a lot of people on this thread who think Climate Scientists are ‘alarmists’ saying that we should all start panic buying and preparing for the worst... A virus that we. An almost certainly cure within a year or so is a disaster but climate change that will have long term irreversible consequences is all just alarmism

Who is talking about 'climate scientists' ffs ??? This is a thread about the outbreak of a new Corona virus.

Seriously your comments are obsessed with eveyone you believe are climate 'deniers' and deranged theories where you reckon if someone thinks X then they are guilty of Y!

News for ya. Wrong thread. Unless you've got a crystal ball no one knows what is going to happen with this outbreak.

25-02-2020 02:19AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Theory is that if you are closer to high numbers of patients with corona virus. You get a higher viral load leading to worse outcomes.

Here's a paper that explains it simply enough.

I can't read that right now because I'm watching a film but I'm guessing it would be best to stagger the end of the quarantine then rather than 'releasing' everyone at once.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-02-2020 02:24AM

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-latest-news-italy-italia-deaths-symptoms-china-stocks-wall-street-dow-jones-economy-falls

South Korea reports 833 cases, 8 deaths

In South Korea, the government has called for “extraordinary” measures to contain the virus, including the creation of a supplementary budget, as cases of the virus jump to 833, with 8 deaths.

There will be a crackdown on the illegal hoarding of face masks, with officials saying the next 7-10 days will be crucial in containing the outbreak.

Footage from Daegu, the centre of the outbreak in the country, shows lengthy lines to buy face masks.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1232088098839855104

Kermit.de.frog · 25-02-2020 02:31AM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232113435317620736

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232114740266180608

BorneTobyWilde · 25-02-2020 02:32AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaCauEt5oZw

Call Me Jimmy · 25-02-2020 02:33AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232113435317620736

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232114740266180608

Ah the 'it's not a lockdown' lockdown

ldy4mxonucwsq6 · 25-02-2020 02:35AM

So hundreds of people gather together and queue up for masks to protect themselves from this virus.

Could be more risk in loads of people gathering and queuing closely together than not having a mask in the first place??

Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

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