US Presidential Election 2020

Water John · 16-02-2020 10:47PM

Universal Medicare for those who opt for it, a choice, would be his best position and most realistic.

16-02-2020 10:56PM

There is zero chance that Bernie climbs down and embraces Warren's plan. It was the foundation of his run in 2016 and it's the core pillar of his current run. How would anyone take him seriously if he made such a concession on his primary issue?

Warren went from being for Universal Healthcare to her transition malarkey and lost a lot of supporters.

Water John wrote: »

Universal Medicare for those who opt for it, a choice, would be his best position and most realistic.

It wouldn't because you'd end up with a **** show. Instead of all taxes going toward M4A, you'd have far less being paid into it and thus ending up with a worse system.

If you had a two-tier system you'd have those that can afford it getting insurance and good private healthcare and then those that can't afford it flogged into an underfunded hospital.

Whole hog or no hog.

DreamsBurnDown · 16-02-2020 11:03PM

Water John wrote: »

Universal Medicare for those who opt for it, a choice, would be his best position and most realistic.

That's effectively Pete's plan (Medicare for all who need it) so there's no way he will go that far.

DreamsBurnDown · 16-02-2020 11:19PM

Deleted User wrote: »

There is zero chance that Bernie climbs down and embraces Warren's plan. It was the foundation of his run in 2016 and it's the core pillar of his current run. How would anyone take him seriously if he made such a concession on his primary issue?

It wouldn't because you'd end up with a **** show. Instead of all taxes going toward M4A, you'd have far less being paid into it and thus ending up with a worse system.

I agree he won't, but it's arguably what he needs to do, as it could become a losing issue for him as more people understand the impact on their current health care plans. There are millions of unionized workers who will not give up the plans their union negotiated with their employers. Two thirds of those who are in favor of a universal heath plan are opposed to ending private insurance, so Bernie's plan only has about 20-25% of voters support it. That's not great for the foundation of your platform.

Don't think it's the primary reason Warren has been slipping, her attack on Bernie did a lot more damage.

Americans are being told, including by Bernie, that a "European" type system is needed in the US. Literally every western European country has a two tier healthcare system, including France which I believe is rated highest by the WHO.

Gbear · 17-02-2020 11:06AM

DreamsBurnDown wrote: »

That's effectively Pete's plan (Medicare for all who need it) so there's no way he will go that far.

Obama had to compromise and Bernie probably will too.

There's a huge difference between compromising at the legislative stage and compromising at the vote getting stage, though.

Rjd2 · 17-02-2020 01:46PM

https://twitter.com/ryanlcooper/status/1229116249629655040

The Democrat establishment ain't ****ing about . New smear is Bernie is a commie which to be fair they have been testing initially on Tulsi and now and then on Bernie.

The person who spread this out of contest video which went vital is a Joe Biden campaign manager who was lapping up the compliments from Neocon trash like Bill Kristol.

The establishment have lionised these vile Neocon Warmongers and to repay this love the likes of Kristol, Rubin, Boot are all going really ****ing hard after Bernie.

Hope Bernie can survive all this, because its going these ghouls aren't ****ing about.

Joe_ Public · 17-02-2020 02:33PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ryanlcooper/status/1229116249629655040

The Democrat establishment ain't ****ing about . New smear is Bernie is a commie which to be fair they have been testing initially on Tulsi and now and then on Bernie.

The person who spread this out of contest video which went vital is a Joe Biden campaign manager who was lapping up the compliments from Neocon trash like Bill Kristol.

The establishment have lionised these vile Neocon Warmongers and to repay this love the likes of Kristol, Rubin, Boot are all going really ****ing hard after Bernie.

Hope Bernie can survive all this, because its going these ghouls aren't ****ing about.

I guess the trump onslaught would follow pretty much along the same lines so it might give the sanders campaign a useful dry run. Thats the positive way of looking at it anyway!

Gbear · 17-02-2020 03:40PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I guess the trump onslaught would follow pretty much along the same lines so it might give the sanders campaign a useful dry run. Thats the positive way of looking at it anyway!

I was listening to Pod Save America the other day. A couple of the guys on it were Obama staffers from the 2008 run and beyond, and they mentioned how Hillary's campaign (IIRC) dug up the links between Obama and that extremist pastor, Jeremiah Wright.

They were of the impression that it was better to have gotten that out of the way in the Primaries stage, so by the time the election proper came around, it was old news.

A part of the process is running the rule over candidates, and unfortunately that includes this sort of ****e. Ultimately, if he can't survive this in the primaries, he probably won't survive the election.

You would bet that Bernie probably doesn't have any massive skeletons in his closet, and all this "commie" stuff is out in the open, so you'd think he's well prepared for anything likely to come his way.

everlast75 · 19-02-2020 02:42PM

IMHO the Dems will have less of a chance of beating Trump with Sanders and Bloomberg.

The former has been successfully characterised as a Socialist (even though he isn't in the true meaning of the word) and frankly the US isn't ready to even have that debate, never mind elect a "socialist".

Sanders has a real issue with his health too. He is refusing to release further records and calling any questioning of his health "a smear campaign" which is nonsense.

Bloomberg, while running a very savvy online campaign, is just another rich guy trying to buy the election. The Dem base won't be mobilised by him.

Any of the other candidates, as things stand, should beat him comfortably.

rossie1977 · 19-02-2020 03:20PM

everlast75 wrote: »

IMHO the Dems will have less of a chance of beating Trump with Sanders and Bloomberg.

Polls seem to agree. While Bloomberg and Sanders are now leading Dem field it's Biden that's matching up better vs Trump. Trump knew that too that Biden would be a tougher opponent especially because both attract an older voter and Biden would be a challenge in places like Florida, North Carolina, Arizona where Bloomberg and Sanders likely will not.

pixelburp · 19-02-2020 03:30PM

everlast75 wrote: »

IMHO the Dems will have less of a chance of beating Trump with Sanders and Bloomberg.

The former has been successfully characterised as a Socialist (even though he isn't in the true meaning of the word) and frankly the US isn't ready to even have that debate, never mind elect a "socialist".

Sanders has a real issue with his health too. He is refusing to release further records and calling any questioning of his health "a smear campaign" which is nonsense.

Bloomberg, while running a very savvy online campaign, is just another rich guy trying to buy the election. The Dem base won't be mobilised by him.

Any of the other candidates, as things stand, should beat him comfortably.

The US is never going to be "ready" for a socialist, until it is. The country isn't the type to slowly slide into a new form of governance, and IMO it'll take the sudden shock of normalcy brought by a Sanders presidency, or some critical mass of states with open Social Democracy, to change minds. Assuming none are a flaming disaster, then the holdouts will see that "Socialism" isn't the end. Nothing really changing will be the cause of change. Of course you'll get the entrepreneurs and libertarian die hards who'll find the parachutes and social responsibilities to be invasive and antithetical, but TBH you'll never convince those types anyway.

As I've said before, it's worth remembering that for a large swathe of the population, the presumptive evils of Socialism being a slide into Communism means nothing. They were born after The Wall came down & the USSR dissolved, while even more young people travel than ever before. Between that and a globalised, more connected world, I don't genuinely believe "socialism" is the kind of bogeyman that holds sway with younger demographics. The proof of the pudding will be in the socialist vs. establishment runoff - be it Sanders or someone else - but IMO the tides are turning.

Joe_ Public · 19-02-2020 03:39PM

rossie1977 wrote: »

Polls seem to agree. While Bloomberg and Sanders are now leading Dem field it's Biden that's matching up better vs Trump. Trump knew that too that Biden would be a tougher opponent especially because both attract an older voter and Biden would be a challenge in places like Florida, North Carolina, Arizona where Bloomberg and Sanders likely will not.

Out of interest what polls are currently showing Biden matching up better against trump? According to this poll released yesterday Sanders electability rating among democrats stands at 30% with biden and bloomberg both beneath 20.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sanders-surges-into-national-lead-in-new-post-abc-poll/2020/02/19/868266a4-5280-11ea-929a-64efa7482a77_story.html

rossie1977 · 19-02-2020 04:08PM

ABC/Washington Post, NPR/Marist both released in last day or so gave Biden with biggest lead vs Trump

Joe_ Public · 19-02-2020 04:26PM

rossie1977 wrote: »

ABC/Washington Post, NPR/Marist both released in last day or so gave Biden with biggest lead vs Trump

In the wash post/abc poll linked above sanders is 53-42 against trump with biden running 52-44. Unless I'm missing something i cant see biden leading in any single metric, just a guy seemingly slipping further and further away into irrelevance.

everlast75 · 19-02-2020 04:30PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

In the wash post/abc poll linked above sanders is 53-42 against trump with biden running 52-44. Unless I'm missing something i cant see biden leading in any single metric, just a guy seemingly slipping further and further away into irrelevance.

Bloomberg is splitting the voters for Biden.

If/when Bloomberg falls away, those voters will move back to Biden

Gbear · 19-02-2020 04:40PM

everlast75 wrote: »

Bloomberg is splitting the voters for Biden.

If/when Bloomberg falls away, those voters will move back to Biden

That shouldn't have anything to do with favourability against Trump, though.

And you can just as easily imagine that Sanders will make gains from the now seemingly inevitable end of Warren's campaign, and some from other, lesser candidates like Yang.

duploelabs · 19-02-2020 04:49PM

Gbear wrote: »

That shouldn't have anything to do with favourability against Trump, though.

And you can just as easily imagine that Sanders will make gains from the now seemingly inevitable end of Warren's campaign, and some from other, lesser candidates like Yang.

Yang is already out

Water John · 19-02-2020 05:39PM

One can equally argue that Warren is holding numbers that would go to Sanders.

Gbear · 19-02-2020 06:04PM

duploelabs wrote: »

Yang is already out

Right, but I think that was only after New Hampshire, wasn't it?

Point being, they've yet to make themselves felt as contributors to the other campaigns, small in number though they may be.

Warren might be more significant.
You would imagine that the largest 2nd preference for Warren supporters would be Sanders.

Rjd2 · 19-02-2020 06:38PM

A lot of the stuff aimed at Bernie is bollocks mainly the Bernie bro silliness.

However the fact he is 78 and just had a heart attack is an issue and something I am surprised the other front runners never really seized upon on until now.

You can like the guy like I do, but its not something to ignore.

Its an issue with so many front runners though, Biden is not exactly in tip top shape and Pelosi, Mitch to name just a few have no plan to slow down as they near 80. :pac:

When it comes to picking a Vice for Biden, Bloomberg and obviously Bernie picking a VP that will calm their own base, unite the party and offer something ideally to the states that will decide this is key.

Biden and Bloomberg will pick someone like Warren, Amy K, Booker etc,,,Bernie has less options. He won't pick Tulsi despite what some might say, his base want Nina Turner but that's offering nothing regarding party unity. I actually think picking Warren might not be a bad idea now,,can say we "need to unite" to beat Trump.

Thankfully in Trump we have an elite specimen with a clean lifestyle and in top shape.

Manic Moran · 19-02-2020 06:38PM

everlast75 wrote: »

Bloomberg, while running a very savvy online campaign, is just another rich guy trying to buy the election. The Dem base won't be mobilised by him.

Another datapoint. Bloomberg's campaign is very heavy on gun control.
Swing State Virginia two days ago just abandoned the attempt at an "assault weapons" ban, four of nine State Senate Democrats on the committee joined six Republicans in killing it. Three of the four are from districts which (obviously) elected Democrats, but which contain counties which declared themselves "2nd Amendment Sanctuaries". I strongly suspect they received a lot of calls along the lines of "We're fine with most of your policies, but you won't have a job next election if you follow through with gun control".

Bloomberg's point of emphasis is proven not a winning strategy in Virginia, and is known to be questionable in PA and OH. (I personally think it questionable in NV, WI, MI and FL as well)

Red for Danger · 19-02-2020 07:12PM

Looking forward to see bloomberg crash and burn in the debate. The guy is completely detached, comes out with crazy notions every time he speaks, he's probably surrounded himself with yes-men who agree with his every word. Bernie can have a go or sit back as its the other centrist particularly klobuchar could come away big winners if they could land a clear blow on Bloomberg

SharpshooterTom · 19-02-2020 07:35PM

Trumps approval rating now at its highest in 3 years, sitting at 44.3%. Still not great, but if he gets that up a few more points he'll certainly be competitive for reelection.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-02-2020 07:53PM

Bloomberg has less personality than a flowerpot,
the Donald for all his faults is great and way hugey entertaining.

Sanders is now the Dems favourite, and only real half-decent chance.

Someone has put Biden way out to 25/1 to win now, am still not tempted with that price.

Rjd2 · 20-02-2020 05:13AM

Terrible night for Bloomberg. No charisma, came across bored and stumbled over what were tough but really ****ing obvious questions.

Warren probably won the debate, but a little to late to make a difference.

Bernie will be happy enough, the others seemed to forget he was the front runner with so much focus on Mike.

SharpshooterTom · 20-02-2020 05:35AM

Think it was a good night for Biden.

Bloomberg tanked and it gives Biden a chance to regalvanise the moderate vote for Super Tuesday, particularly if he can win SC. Bernie's vote will stay the same but it does give Biden an opportunity to be the main man to take him on.

everlast75 · 20-02-2020 10:12AM

Watched some of the highlights.

Warren eviscerated Bloomberg. As one tweet put it... "it was the worst night for a billionaire since Bruce Wayne's dad walked down that alley".

Amy and Pete tussled a bit. Biden did well and Sanders was Sanders.

Warren did very well out of and got a bump in the figures.

pixelburp · 20-02-2020 10:50AM

I only saw a small bit, and it revolved Bloomberg's response to the NDAs and what I presume to be accusations of sexual harassment? His aside that he might have told poorly considered "jokes" drew a heavy moan from the audience, while the rest of his demeanour was weak and toddling. Hard to imagine this being some great opponent to Trump. He may be a richer man, but Bloomberg would get absolutely swallowed alive by Trump's boisterous aggressive styling.

The attempts to take a swipe at Sanders with the "you're a rich man too!" didn't feel genuine, I wonder will that be a tactic taken by the GOP if Sanders wins. The senators 3 houses doesn't seem particularly excessive when explained, not compared with Trumps' vulgar approach to wealth (not that hypocrisy hasn't been a mainstay of his Presidency)

Gbear · 20-02-2020 11:19AM

Rjd2 wrote: »

A lot of the stuff aimed at Bernie is bollocks mainly the Bernie bro silliness.

However the fact he is 78 and just had a heart attack is an issue and something I am surprised the other front runners never really seized upon on until now.

[...]

Thankfully in Trump we have an elite specimen with a clean lifestyle and in top shape.

I absolutely think this is a relevant point, but I can't see it, for example, supression voter turnout. Beyond the primaries, I don't see it mattering unless he literally drops dead before November.

My Grandfather had, I believe, a heart attack, and a triple heart bypass at 75 or so. He lived to 86, so it's not like you're straight to the hospice at the first sign of trouble.

Sanders appears to be an otherwise healthy man, while his potential eventual opponent apperas to be suffering progressive mental degradation.

pixelburp wrote: »

I only saw a small bit, and it revolved Bloomberg's response to the NDAs and what I presume to be accusations of sexual harassment? His aside that he might have told poorly considered "jokes" drew a heavy moan from the audience, while the rest of his demeanour was weak and toddling. Hard to imagine this being some great opponent to Trump. He may be a richer man, but Bloomberg would get absolutely swallowed alive by Trump's boisterous aggressive styling.

It might seem trite but the last president to be significantly under 6ft was Jimmy Carter, at least, according to Wiki.

Now, it's quite possible some of those are inflated. Trump's is.

But at 5'8, Bloomberg would be the shortest president since Ulysysses S Grant.
If Trump did agree to debate, that looming thing he does could have some kind of effect.

Sanders is roughly the same height as him, but far more energetic and sharp.

Height might not seem that important on its own, but as part of a package of a candidate seeming strong, fervent, energetic and statesmanlike, it may well be another reason why people never fall in love with Bloomberg the way they do with some other candidates.

Joe_ Public · 20-02-2020 12:21PM

When its odds on, whether bernie succeeds or not, that the race for white house will be fought out by two 70 somethings, going after him on health grounds seems to me an indication of how little they have to go on against sanders beyond the predictable big bad socialist motif. Bloombergs 3 houses jibe was equally weak sauce. If anything, it tells you sanders cant be quite the communist they'd have you believe.

US Presidential Election 2020

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