GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Loafing Oaf · 13-02-2020 06:23PM

tipptom wrote: »

Absolutely, FG being given a free run by the "free" press on this.
They are being allowed throw their toys out of the pram and walk away without being questioned when they have nearly as much seats as the other two.

Eventually FF/FG will be joining up again after "they protest to much",with Lowry,McGrath,Greens,etc.

So they're not walking away?

Is it really such a crime if FF and FG want to drag things out, do a bit of posturing and shadow boxing before they get down to business? Martin will face a struggle to bring his party with him so he needs to choreograph things carefully...

efanton · 13-02-2020 06:28PM

jos28 wrote: »

I said the same thing on Tuesday. MM had the most seats and should have been first off the block but instead himself and LV sat back and waited. I reckon they knew since the results came out that they would join forces and get the GP/SDs to join them. It was obvious SF could not form a Government. I think they allowed MLM to make her phone calls, run around arranging meetings until she ran out of steam.
With all the SF shouting and triumphalism dying off they can calmly step up and put a Government together. MM risked a heave if he entertained the shinners so that was never going to happen. Leo owes MM one for the C&S arrangement. MM gets to be Taoiseach and Leo will be given a nice position in Europe. It wouldn't surprise that part of the deal will be to keep Simon Coveney as Brexit Man.

That's the best assessment posted on any thread on this forum so far.

Its a shame though the FF and FG feel the need for the political games of forcing MaryLou to run around on what was an impossible mission and now will continue the games by waiting a few weeks before declaring the only outcome that was ever likely a FF/FG/Green coalition, a decision that both Leo and Martin have probably already made.

LeinsterDub · 13-02-2020 06:31PM

https://twitter.com/harrymcgee/status/1227990876749729793?s=19

So can we stop talking about how the ball is in SF's court now?

Brendan Bendar · 13-02-2020 06:35PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/harrymcgee/status/1227990876749729793?s=19

So can we stop talking about how the ball is in SF's court now?

Whooooy?

Idbatterim · 13-02-2020 06:42PM

Look lads, this SF vote has set the cat amongst the pigeons, even if you voted FFG its done a world of good. Those clowns doing nothing for decades, serves non of us. If FFG form a government, I expect some movement and improvement, wont be hard given the farce they always serve up...

jos28 · 13-02-2020 06:45PM

efanton wrote: »

That's the best assessment posted on any thread on this forum so far.

Its a shame though the FF and FG feel the need for the political games of forcing MaryLou to run around on what was an impossible mission and now will continue the games by waiting a few weeks before declaring the only outcome that was ever likely a FF/FG/Green coalition, a decision that both Leo and Martin have probably already made.

Cheers Efanton, I agree with you about the game playing but that's politics for ya !

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 06:46PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/harrymcgee/status/1227990876749729793?s=19

So can we stop talking about how the ball is in SF's court now?

This is pretty much the way it was going to pan out once the seat share was known.
However if the Greens go in as mudguard to the big two they're gonna get screwed.

is_that_so · 13-02-2020 06:47PM

tipptom wrote: »

Absolutely, FG being given a free run by the "free" press on this.
They are being allowed throw their toys out of the pram and walk away without being questioned when they have nearly as much seats as the other two.

Eventually FF/FG will be joining up again after "they protest to much",with Lowry,McGrath,Greens,etc.

They simply cannot countenance another election with the way the voters managed the transfers away from them which was even more impressive than the SF no1s vote.

Who's throwing toys? Two parties have more seats than them so really no obligation on them to do much of anything. I really wouldn't try to imagine the outcome of another election at all.

FrancieBrady · 13-02-2020 06:47PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/harrymcgee/status/1227990876749729793?s=19

So can we stop talking about how the ball is in SF's court now?

If they go with that the 'ball' will stay in SF's court for a while.

Can't believe the Greens would go in with the two of them. It will be like shooting fish in a barrel next time out.
Unless of course they fix everything.

is_that_so · 13-02-2020 06:49PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

This is pretty much the way it was going to pan out once the seat share was known.
However if the Greens go in as mudguard to the big two they're gonna get screwed.

I don't think they will this time out once they get some of that climate stuff done and FF or FG would be fine with most of that. That they bounced back so quickly from 2011 suggests voters just lumped them in with FF back then.

is_that_so · 13-02-2020 06:52PM

They finally say a definitive No.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0213/1114963-sinn-fein-talks/

jos28 · 13-02-2020 06:57PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

This is pretty much the way it was going to pan out once the seat share was known.
However if the Greens go in as mudguard to the big two they're gonna get screwed.

Eamonn Ryan should insist on bringing the SDs along for the ride. He can always blame them if it all goes pear shaped. It could be a great opportunity for the SDs if they get the chance. FF/FG can package it in such a way that they listened to the electorate and here's our nice new shiny Democratic partners. If the new house building figures are to be believed and the planned house building continues the SDs can take a lot of the credit for putting pressure on the big boys.

Spanish Eyes · 13-02-2020 06:59PM

I don't get this "MM is desperate to be Taoiseach" shyte TBH.

What an egotistical approach. But whatever. Forget it Micheal, just work for the good of the country, not yourself, you may be thanked yet.

Can anyone explain?

Anyway, if FF enter coalition with FG he more than likely WILL be TS, so it just might work for his ego and aspirations for the FF history books. But that's not what we need right now is it?

Honestly.

is_that_so · 13-02-2020 07:00PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I don't get this "MM is desperate to be Taoiseach" shyte TBH.

What an egotistical approach. But whatever. Forget it Micheal, just work for the good of the country, not yourself, you may be thanked yet.

Can anyone explain?

Anyway, if FF enter coalition with FG he more than likely WILL be TS, so it just might work for his ego and aspirations for the FF history books. But that's not what we need right now is it?

Honestly.

Not coalition, but maybe with minor entities and then a S&C deal with FG.

Spanish Eyes · 13-02-2020 07:01PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They finally say a definitive No.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0213/1114963-sinn-fein-talks/

FFG/Green/other so. Or another election.

is_that_so · 13-02-2020 07:05PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

FFG/Green/other so. Or another election.

The former would need a lot of negotiation IMO and the latter would be pushed out as long as they can. Even SF don't want to get back on that horse quickly. As time goes by we may see some more creative suggestions. Possibly election by June if none of this can be hammered out.

laugh · 13-02-2020 07:06PM

Doubt the Greens will go in, how many seats did they win based on transfers from SF?

Sir Oxman · 13-02-2020 07:06PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They finally say a definitive No.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0213/1114963-sinn-fein-talks/

FF/FG+ here we come.

SF will annihilate them in a few years if they play their cards right.

jos28 · 13-02-2020 07:06PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I don't get this "MM is desperate to be Taoiseach" shyte TBH.

What an egotistical approach. But whatever. Forget it Micheal, just work for the good of the country, not yourself, you may be thanked yet.

Can anyone explain?

Apparently Micheal does not want to go down in history as the only FF leader never to be Taoiseach.

is_that_so · 13-02-2020 07:08PM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

FF/FG+ here we come.

SF will annihilate them in a few years if they play their cards right.

SF can't go above 50 on account of the oldies and they shouldn't rely on the 35-50s to stick with them.

Spanish Eyes · 13-02-2020 07:12PM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

FF/FG+ here we come.

SF will annihilate them in a few years if they play their cards right.

Well I would wonder about that TBH. Maybe the FFG/other set up will go hell for leather to achieve everything that SF feel they can do also. Or will be able to point out the problems as to why it cannot be done immediately also.

That would be great, and I know they will be castigated from the Opposition benches for not doing it until it was put up to them. Doesn't matter as long as we get what we can out of whatever emerges.

TBH, and with due respect to SF wins, I think we need a bit of stability now with Brexit and all that. But onwards and upwards and we will see I suppose.

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 07:19PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I don't think they will this time out once they get some of that climate stuff done and FF or FG would be fine with most of that. That they bounced back so quickly from 2011 suggests voters just lumped them in with FF back then.

The environment is great until you start hitting people hard in the pocket. Anyhoo there'll all adults in the Green party I'm sure they know what lays ahead when you prop up either of the main two.

Brendan Bendar · 13-02-2020 07:22PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

The environment is great until you start hitting people hard in the pocket. Anyhoo there'll all adults in the Green party I'm sure they know what lays ahead when you prop up either of the main two.

A lot more than the Greens going to hammer the pocket, dude.

Haven’t you heard.......:P

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 07:24PM

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

A lot more than the Greens going to hammer the pocket, dude.

Haven’t you heard.......:P

You mean people haven't being hammered by the cohort of FG/FF up to now?
Shinners ain't getting in B this time, so you can dial back the rhetoric.

Sir Oxman · 13-02-2020 07:25PM

is_that_so wrote: »

SF can't go above 50 on account of the oldies and they shouldn't rely on the 35-50s to stick with them.

I wouldn't be capping anything in this atmosphere to be honest.

The mudguard (Greens, if FF/FG/G happens) will be zeroed and that is for sure.
The shutout of SF is something which will only fuel others and that again is my opinion - the anger in the air is palpable that parties will not even talk (another big mistake from FF and FG)

The only reason I can see that the SF new voters 18-65's won't stay with them is if FF/FG adopt the guts of their policies and solve housing/renting and cost of living and restore the social contract.
And I have no confidence whatosever that that will happen with either Ff or FG.

cameramonkey · 13-02-2020 07:27PM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

I wouldn't be capping anything in this atmosphere to be honest.

The mudguard (Greens, if FF/FG/G happens) will be zeroed and that is for sure.
The shutout of SF is something which will only fuel others and that again is my opinion - the anger in the air is palpable that parties will not even talk (another big mistake from FF and FG)

The only reason I can see that the SF new voters 18-65's won't stay with them is if FF/FG adopt the guts of their policies and solve housing/renting and cost of living and restore the social contract.
And I have no confidence whatosever that that will happen.

FF/FG have please there sponsors in the building / property developer world. There is no way they will try to solve the housing crisis with pubic housing.

James Brown · 13-02-2020 07:30PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

FF/FG have please there sponsors in the building / property developer world. There is no way they will try to solve the housing crisis with pubic housing.

FF might try build but FG will put the breaks on that.
Be gas though. I can see Denis O'Brien waiting on his next state contract while FF ask what's in it for them.
The Greens will be pushing for wolves. Ireland is in dire need.

is_that_so · 13-02-2020 07:33PM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

I wouldn't be capping anything in this atmosphere to be honest.

The mudguard (Greens, if FF/FG/G happens) will be zeroed and that is for sure.
The shutout of SF is something which will only fuel others and that again is my opinion - the anger in the air is palpable that parties will not even talk (another big mistake from FF and FG)

The only reason I can see that the SF new voters 18-65's won't stay with them is if FF/FG adopt the guts of their policies and solve housing/renting and cost of living and restore the social contract.
And I have no confidence whatosever that that will happen.

Over 65s are now 20%+ of the population and they vote in huge numbers. What gave FF & FG large numbers of seats was support through all demographics. SF don't have that in the oldies and they also will also need to find people of a reasonable quality to top up. That is not a given. As for their new voters I wouldn't guess why they chose them. They may retain a lot of them or they may not. I agree that a cobbled together successful government that took housing off the table to a degree would not be advantageous to SF. Interesting times.

Sir Oxman · 13-02-2020 07:34PM

Martin stuttering on about forming a radical govt!

This is pure bullsh1te.

Suckit · 13-02-2020 07:34PM

Bowie wrote: »

FF might try build but FG will put the breaks on that.
Be gas though. I can see Denis O'Brien waiting on his next state contract while FF ask what's in it for them.
The Greens will be pushing for wolves. Ireland is in dire need.

Sounds like we have enough of them.

GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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