GE Exit Poll 10 pm

rob316 · 13-02-2020 04:37PM

Foxtrol wrote: »

Ignoring history and loose cannon TDs, how do you do business with a party that has a manifesto that has elements that you fundamentally disagree with and the maths is pie in the sky nonsense?

All manifesto's are full of **** and not worth the paper they are printed on. They can still put together a program for government. Both committed to large amounts of social housing, public spending and tax cuts. They're not that far apart as people think IMO.

ricero · 13-02-2020 04:38PM

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

campo · 13-02-2020 04:39PM

ricero wrote: »

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

They will come together to form a coalition, they are just letting SF have first dabs knowing full well the numbers are not there so they can come out later on and say oh for the good of the country we just had no other choice

meeeeh · 13-02-2020 04:40PM

ricero wrote: »

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

Because first SF has to have a chance to build their own coalition and then they will get in power with each other or risk another election.

LeinsterDub · 13-02-2020 04:43PM

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1227965320255725575

So i fully expect an other 40 pages of but what about SF!

LeinsterDub · 13-02-2020 04:44PM

meeeeh wrote: »

Because first SF has to have a chance to build their own coalition and then they will get in power with each other or risk another election.

SF doesn't have to have a chance to do anything. That's not how it works.

James Brown · 13-02-2020 04:47PM

meeeeh wrote: »

Not really, you take seat losses, rebuild in opposition and when SF go the way of Labour because they won't be able to follow up on their promises, you try with another election. That's if left wing government composed of more fractious than there are parties actually survives 4 years.

That being said at some stage there won't be space for both FF and FG. Either they will merge or one will go down and other one survive.

Isn't that playing politics? What about 'stability', the reason an eager FG went in with support from FF, for the country? A farce?

meeeeh · 13-02-2020 04:47PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

SF doesn't have to have a chance to do anything. That's not how it works.

It's much better optics, we gave them time to try but it's not our fault if nobody wants to go into power with them. And then you either offer grand coalition for the good of the state or new election to give SF chance to field more candidates.

meeeeh · 13-02-2020 04:50PM

Bowie wrote: »

Isn't that playing politics? What about 'stability', the reason an eager FG went in with support from FF, for the country? A farce?

Of course it is. Do you think promising a pie in the sky isn't?

James Brown · 13-02-2020 04:50PM

ricero wrote: »

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

Without their dyed in the wool support they will loose their grip on the country. Same reason FF won't talk to SF. If FF go in with FG, many of the traditional family hereditary supporters might leave taking away their power base.
FF or FG would rather sit it out than risk that.

James Brown · 13-02-2020 04:51PM

meeeeh wrote: »

Of course it is. Do you think promising a pie in the sky isn't?

Well that was my point. The stability thing, for the country, used to justify going in with FF, was a con.

LeinsterDub · 13-02-2020 04:51PM

meeeeh wrote: »

It's much better optics, we gave them time to try but it's not our fault if nobody wants to go into power with them. And then you either offer grand coalition for the good of the state or new election to give SF chance to field more candidates.

What optics, everyone know the only option is FF - FG - ?? .

So the quicker they decided the civil war is over or is still on going the better. This has nothing to do with SF anymore.

Foxtrol · 13-02-2020 04:52PM

rob316 wrote: »

All manifesto's are full of **** and not worth the paper they are printed on. They can still put together a program for government. Both committed to large amounts of social housing, public spending and tax cuts. They're not that far apart as people think IMO.

I presume you're a SF (or left) voter if you think you can have large amounts of all that and be fiscally responsible.

All parties reach with manifestos but SF's is next level. If you believe FF and FG are already reaching with theirs then how are they go beyond that to find a middle ground with the pie in the sky SF nonsense.

You can't run the finances of the country with ridiculous claims like 'demographics will look after themselves'.

Mantis Toboggan · 13-02-2020 04:53PM

ricero wrote: »

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

Because FF seem to have gone into hiding and FG are sitting on their hands as usual. This is the only solution along with the greens but they'll drag the arse out of it if possible.

campo · 13-02-2020 04:55PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

What optics, everyone know the only option is FF - FG - ?? .

So the quicker they decided the civil war is over or is still on going the better. This has nothing to do with SF anymore.

It has everything to do with SF, if they did not get the numbers they got in this election there is not a chance that FF & FG would even think about going into government together.

I reckon they all thought they were heading for a FF & Green with C & S from FG agreement.

LeinsterDub · 13-02-2020 04:58PM

campo wrote: »

It has everything to do with SF, if they did not get the numbers they got in this election there is not a chance that FF & FG would even think about going into government together.

I reckon they all thought they were heading for a FF & Green with C & S from FG agreement.

Yeah and if my aunt had balls..... we are where we are now. The die has been cast .

tipptom · 13-02-2020 05:00PM

ricero wrote: »

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

Absolutely, FG being given a free run by the "free" press on this.
They are being allowed throw their toys out of the pram and walk away without being questioned when they have nearly as much seats as the other two.

Eventually FF/FG will be joining up again after "they protest to much",with Lowry,McGrath,Greens,etc.

They simply cannot countenance another election with the way the voters managed the transfers away from them which was even more impressive than the SF no1s vote.

campo · 13-02-2020 05:00PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Yeah and if my aunt had balls..... we are where we are now. The die has been cast .

Oh I agree but just pointing out that it has to do with SF, so your statement is not correct.

In this instance you are saying my auntie has a b****x

LeinsterDub · 13-02-2020 05:04PM

campo wrote: »

Oh I agree but just pointing out that it has to do with SF, so your statement is not correct.

In this instance you are saying my auntie has a b****x

For the pendants here . One the election result came it no longer has anything to do with SF. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Loafing Oaf · 13-02-2020 05:05PM

efanton wrote: »

The only conceivable government possible now is FF/FG/Greens unless of course Michael Martin wants to commits political suicide in grandiose style and force another general election.

Martin certainly won't want to do that but his party might force his hand.

McMurphy · 13-02-2020 05:22PM

I stand to collect €425 if it's a FF minority govt.

I'll have immense pleasure watching FFG devour each other if it's a coalition between them which will be like some kind of a forced arranged marriage.

A new election will be great too.

That election result is the gift that keeps on giving.

tipptom · 13-02-2020 05:40PM

McMurphy wrote: »

I stand to collect €425 if it's a FF minority govt.

I'll have immense pleasure watching FFG devour each other if it's a coalition between them which will be like some kind of a forced arranged marriage.

A new election will be great too.

That election result is the gift that keeps on giving.

Hope you read the small print on that if its with Paddy Power if it does come to pass.

Loafing Oaf · 13-02-2020 05:43PM

Yurt! wrote: »

More likely the two parties start devouring each other internally.

The look on FG representatives faces and the hum of desperation off the posts of FG supporters gives lie to your theory that this is some sort of genius 'spin' masterplan they had provided for pre-election after they got their backsides handed to them.

'Oh we totally meant to lose a swathe of seats and leave junior partnership with FF or another election as the only options on our plate.'

They're barely holding the party together at this stage I'd suspect. The pressure will mount over the next few days to a week.

Of course they're not happy, they didn't want to lose a load of seats, but even if they had held on to five or ten more the basic Dail equation would be the same: A government can only be formed by two out of three of the big parties; FG were never going in with SF; if FF want to do 'a deal with the devil' off with them but failing that there has to be another arrangement of some form between FF and FG. Leo had provided for this before the election when he said he would be prepared to talk to FF about confidence & supply or full coalition and AFAIK he has not resiled from this position despite all the talk of 'going into opposition'. If FF and FG (and the Greens or whoever) do come to an agreement there will be some grumbling within FG but the vast majority will go along with it, because that's the kind of party they are.

McMurphy · 13-02-2020 05:43PM

tipptom wrote: »

Hope you read the small print on that if its with Paddy Power if it does come to pass.

No didn't read the small print, what am I looking out for Tom and I'll have a check.

Brendan Bendar · 13-02-2020 05:47PM

McMurphy wrote: »

I stand to collect €425 if it's a FF minority govt.

I'll have immense pleasure watching FFG devour each other if it's a coalition between them which will be like some kind of a forced arranged marriage.

A new election will be great too.

That election result is the gift that keeps on giving.

Hmmm..... strange kind of an attitude one has to surmise.

tipptom · 13-02-2020 06:00PM

McMurphy wrote: »

No didn't read the small print, what am I looking out for Tom and I'll have a check.

What will they call a minority gov in Power towers?

Grand coalition,is that a minority gov?

Should be okay but I would still be checking their small print.

seamus · 13-02-2020 06:01PM

ricero wrote: »

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

On two accounts;

1. Their party bases are still rooted in being opposite to one another. The nuances of their policies come down to fiscal prudence -v- fiscal abandon. The core support of both parties see themselves as being completely incompatible. To the point that it's unlikely most party members would support a formal coalition.

2. For better or worse, they are still the established main parties. Sinn Féin's position is yet to be proven permanent. And in virtually every democracy, it's taken for granted that the two main parties operate in opposition to one another unless security or stability is an issue.

This is why we got a confidence and supply agreement last around, and are unlikely to get a formal coalition this time around. And why the media don't bring it up (much).

UDAWINNER · 13-02-2020 06:05PM

I would have thought a FF minority govt means one without any support from SF or FG , maybe abstaining

Water John · 13-02-2020 06:06PM

A minority Govn't is one with less than 80 voting for it. It can happen by others abstaining and not voting against it.

jos28 · 13-02-2020 06:10PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Instead, have they not engineering a perfect position for themselves, and are the ones having played it smartly ? Where does they idea come from that either has a desire to coalesce with SF ? As we are, An FF/FG coalition is far more natural, politically aligned, and involves no strife over dealing with terrorists and their supporters. Well played Martin and Rads.

I said the same thing on Tuesday. MM had the most seats and should have been first off the block but instead himself and LV sat back and waited. I reckon they knew since the results came out that they would join forces and get the GP/SDs to join them. It was obvious SF could not form a Government. I think they allowed MLM to make her phone calls, run around arranging meetings until she ran out of steam.
With all the SF shouting and triumphalism dying off they can calmly step up and put a Government together. MM risked a heave if he entertained the shinners so that was never going to happen. Leo owes MM one for the C&S arrangement. MM gets to be Taoiseach and Leo will be given a nice position in Europe. It wouldn't surprise me that part of the deal will be to keep Simon Coveney as Brexit Man.

GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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