GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Mantis Toboggan · 11-02-2020 10:41AM

If Martin goes into government with SF after all he has said then FF will get destroyed at the next election.

Suckit · 11-02-2020 10:43AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

No its disrespectful if they tried to form a government after saying no to SF.

What's that SF supporters always tell us about the absenteeism in Westminster?

SF got elected with that stance. And that they are a party following through on their promises.

Well FG are doing the same here.

Not sure how you are missing the other parties here..

There is a party that has the largest amount of seats, that you are leaving out.

facehugger99 · 11-02-2020 10:43AM

listermint wrote: »

Ya if the driver had been driving for years licensed in another country....

Some analogy

Driving a toy car and heavily supervised by Mother England.

Jinglejangle69 · 11-02-2020 10:43AM

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

If Martin goes into government with SF after all he has said then FF will get destroyed at the next election.

So a vote for SF seems a waste vote so.

All this bluster for nothing.

Talk about people blowing their load prematurely.

is_that_so · 11-02-2020 10:43AM

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

If Martin goes into government with SF after all he has said then FF will get destroyed at the next election.

In the event of no new government the acting Taoiseach would have to call it.

lawred2 · 11-02-2020 10:43AM

is_that_so wrote: »

What do you think?

Huh?

It's you that said "off you go and be that change"

How do SF go off and "be that change" when they are 44 seats short of a majority?

They aren't even the majority seat holder in the Dail.

Grab All Association · 11-02-2020 10:43AM

According to MSM Mary Lou is trying to form a left alliance with the GP, SD etc.

The ones defending SF in here are most likely voters and supporters who all have differing opinions with what the party should do.

If SF can they should try form a government. If FG supporters don’t like this then FG also has a responsibility to the people who voted for them to try form a government themselves. As does Fianna Fáil. Note that after the election in 2016 they criticised SF for not engaging with them in the formation of a new government. Having went into that election claiming the same thing that they wouldn’t work with Sinn Féin. The only difference this time is SF have more seats.

Hypocrisy in here. Over the next few days we’ll see who will put the party first over the interests of the electorate.

Jinglejangle69 · 11-02-2020 10:44AM

Suckit wrote: »

Not sure how you are missing the other parties here..
There is a party that has the largest amount of seats, that you are leaving out.

You seem to be leaving out more like to have a go at FG who got booted out, goodbye.

You seen obsessed with FG who are the 3rd biggest party.

JohnnyFlash · 11-02-2020 10:44AM

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Can see no other option that a grand coalition. The shinners just don't have the numbers.

FF, SF, Greens has the numbers. It won’t even be a rainbow as they all have green emblems.

The Greens added to the stew will make it easier for the FF party to accept. People say it would be unstable - well we just had almost 4 years of minority government.

Mary Lou, Micheál, and Eamonn need to get in a room and start talking this stuff out. The country doesn’t have time for political posturing. The current government will perform their caretaker role in the meantime. The trips to Brussels and all that.

seamus · 11-02-2020 10:45AM

Suckit wrote: »

FF have the biggest party.
FF do not want to form a coalition with SF.
FF are willing to form a coalition with the Greens and FG.
FG running away.

FG aren't running away. They're merely stepping back and allowing the bigger parties to do the work. FG haven't said they're not going into government, they've just gone quiet and are waiting for the phone call.

is_that_so wrote: »

In the event of no new government the acting Taoiseach would have to call it.

Which is kind of funny, because FG have the least to lose from another election.

Suckit · 11-02-2020 10:46AM

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

FF, SF, Greens has the numbers. It won’t even be a rainbow as they all have green emblems.

The Greens added to the stew will make it easier for the FF party to accept. People say it would be unstable - well we just had almost 4 years of minority government.

Mary Lou, Micheál, and Eamonn need to get in a room and start talking this stuff out. The country doesn’t have time for political posturing. The current government will perform their caretaker role in the meantime. The trips to Brussels and all that.

Where is Leo in all of this?
Shirking his responsibilities again?
Is he going to remain as leader?

is_that_so · 11-02-2020 10:46AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Huh?

It's you that said "off you go and be that change"

How do SF go off and "be that change" when they are 44 seats short of a majority?

No, I said that's the attitude i.e. the ball is in SF's court and thank you for bothering to put a response together this time.

PARlance · 11-02-2020 10:47AM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

FF & SF:
FF voters will be p1ssed off at MM breaking an election promise by going into government with SF, they will be decimated at the next election.
SF voters wouldn’t be overly happy with SF going into government with FF after they promised ‘change’.
SF could bring down the government at any stage, increase their candidates and see if they can get a majority.
I think that coalition would last 6 months, and I’m not sure MM would chance it.

FF & FG:
Both parties would really need to get their fingers out and accelerate work on all the issues highlighted by the voters in the exit polls.
They would need a flawless tenure in government, and it would have to last for the majority of the term. Any infighting, or if the government was brought down prematurely would play into the hands of SF. They would lose further ground to SF with another election.
Even if they did manage to run a successful government, I’d imagine there would still be bickering and each party would inevitably be trying to portray themselves as the stronger party to impress the electorate. The last thing they’d want is to be seen as same-same come another election.

SF.
If I was Mary Lou I’d go into government with FF, get all the party’s ducks in a row, then collapse the government towards the end of the summer. She would probably be looking at a majority government then. As the largest party in government SF would need to get its act together and deliver results quickly. If they mess up in government they’ll be back to <10%, and would probably stay there for quite some time.

Interesting times ahead.

Very accurate take on it imo.

It's a win win for SF in most cases. The only chance that FF/FG have, as you say, is to form a government (with the Greens and a few others) and eliminate all issues over their tenure. Boom levels of good feelings would be needed.

FF will be decimated if they go in with SF,
1. For the turnaround and
2. For ultimately bringing down the Government.
Because even if SF bring it down, which they will do once they've enough candidates lined up, it'll be spun that they couldn't work with FF because they wouldn't give every homeless person in Ireland a free gaff etc etc etc. The collapse will be just a springboard for their next campaign.

lawred2 · 11-02-2020 10:47AM

seamus wrote: »

FG aren't running away. They're merely stepping back and allowing the bigger parties to do the work. FG haven't said they're not going into government, they've just gone quiet and are waiting for the phone call.

Either way the greens seem to have found themselves in kingmaker territory again.

Be that with FF + SF or FF + FG.

listermint · 11-02-2020 10:47AM

seamus wrote: »

FG aren't running away. They're merely stepping back and allowing the bigger parties to do the work. FG haven't said they're not going into government, they've just gone quiet and are waiting for the phone call.

They most definitely have not gone quiet.

They are across all media and news. They are anything but quiet tbf

Skyfloater · 11-02-2020 10:48AM

Anyone know how the Saturday polling day affected the turnout? It's hard to be definitive about it considering how the weather no doubt kept some people at home, but will Saturday polling days be the new norm?

rob316 · 11-02-2020 10:48AM

facehugger99 wrote: »

Lets put it up to the electorate.

Go back to the polls with SF running 80 candidates.

There can be no mistaking what people are being asked to vote for - none of this childish 'protest vote' nonsense.

Let the electorate return SF with 50 plus seats and then own that decision as the country burns.

The other parties ran 80 odd candidates and returned the same number as the party that ran half the candidates. Seem's fairly set in stone to me.

is_that_so · 11-02-2020 10:49AM

Grab All Association wrote: »

According to MSM Mary Lou is trying to form a left alliance with the GP, SD etc.

The ones defending SF in here are most likely voters and supporters who all have differing opinions with what the party should do.

If SF can they should try form a government. If FG supporters don’t like this then FG also has a responsibility to the people who voted for them to try form a government themselves. As does Fianna Fáil. Note that after the election in 2016 they criticised SF for not engaging with them in the formation of a new government. Having went into that election claiming the same thing that they wouldn’t work with Sinn Féin. The only difference this time is SF have more seats.

Hypocrisy in here. Over the next few days we’ll see who will put the party first over the interests of the electorate.

Sigh, party members not the parliamentary party oppose it as is their right as member of a democratic party.

lawred2 · 11-02-2020 10:50AM

is_that_so wrote: »

No, I said that's the attitude i.e. the ball is in SF's court and thank you for bothering to put a response together this time.

It's not in SF's court though.

JohnnyFlash · 11-02-2020 10:50AM

Suckit wrote: »

Where is Leo in all of this?
Shirking his responsibilities again?
Is he going to remain as leader?

What responsibilities? He was Taoiseach during abortion legislation, Brexit negotiations, and our first budget surplus in 11 years. But was rejected by an electorate who want change. The people don’t want FG and I say that as a card carrying member. The message didn’t resonate etc.

I’m sure FG will do what they’ve always done and get into negotiations to form a government. But there’s no mandate there.

No, dude, the clear path to government now is SF, FF, and the Greens. SF should be delighted. I’m looking forward to their commitment to abolish the LPT. Nice one!

limnam · 11-02-2020 10:50AM

It's gas.

Mary Lou is out running and around trying to form a government.

Laurel and hardy are standing around scratching their heads wondering WTF happened.

but SF need to get on with it ?

lawred2 · 11-02-2020 10:50AM

Skyfloater wrote: »

Anyone know how the Saturday polling day affected the turnout? It's hard to be definitive about it considering how the weather no doubt kept some people at home, but will Saturday polling days be the new norm?

The turnout was high I thought

is_that_so · 11-02-2020 10:52AM

Skyfloater wrote: »

Anyone know how the Saturday polling day affected the turnout? It's hard to be definitive about it considering how the weather no doubt kept some people at home, but will Saturday polling days be the new norm?

It was over 60% generally but in some places a good bit lower so probably not much difference at all. It was certainly more convenient but if you're a non-voter you don't care.

FrancieBrady · 11-02-2020 10:53AM

lawred2 wrote: »

The turnout was high I thought

62%.

Not considered high...average.

Suckit · 11-02-2020 10:53AM

seamus wrote: »

FG aren't running away. They're merely stepping back and allowing the bigger parties to do the work. FG haven't said they're not going into government, they've just gone quiet and are waiting for the phone call.

Funny that, somebody should tell the media. Seems to be FG elected on every station spouting the same gibberish, yet still not able to talk about themselves as a party. Open wounds.

lawred2 · 11-02-2020 10:54AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

62%.

Not considered high...average.

fair enough - I was happy enough with the Saturday anyway. Much less a pain in the hole when the kid's school doesn't close.

is_that_so · 11-02-2020 10:54AM

lawred2 wrote: »

It's not in SF's court though.

Well they are making all the noises and the other two can rightly claim they have been rejected so over to SF.

JohnnyFlash · 11-02-2020 10:55AM

Ush1 wrote: »

If you're a SF supporter, that's gas altogether.

I’m very much enjoying the current affairs forum for the past two day. The Shinners didn’t even get a day to bask in the glory of their successes before they are back sniping at FG - a party who they now appear desperate to try and form a government! The lads are tying themselves up in knots. They are terrified of the prospect of government.

Mantis Toboggan · 11-02-2020 10:55AM

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

FF, SF, Greens has the numbers. It won’t even be a rainbow as they all have green emblems.

The Greens added to the stew will make it easier for the FF party to accept. People say it would be unstable - well we just had almost 4 years of minority government.

Mary Lou, Micheál, and Eamonn need to get in a room and start talking this stuff out. The country doesn’t have time for political posturing. The current government will perform their caretaker role in the meantime. The trips to Brussels and all that.

That would work but FF ruled out going in with SF. If Martin back tracks on that he will look weak and most likely get destroyed at the next election.

Mary Lou has a bigger mandate and could demand to be made Taoiseach. The greens will remember their last stint in government and will no doubt be reluctant. SF might be better off forcing another election. Try to get rid of the monopoly parties altogether.

Suckit · 11-02-2020 10:56AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Well they are making all the noises and the other two can rightly claim they have been rejected so over to SF.

FG are making the most noise, by country miles.

The other two?
FF have the most seats. FG have 35, nobody has over 40.

GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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