GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Reati · 10-02-2020 11:20AM

Boggles wrote: »

Also didn't Harris and Murphy just get reelected?

Not yet, but Harris will be shortly and Murphy, all bar a miracle of transfers against him will be too.

Scary thing is there were always considered safe returns.

Yurt2 · 10-02-2020 11:21AM

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Its interesting though ..while one third of people voted for a leftist party ...two thirds voted for centre right parties.

I see irish politics forming that kind of paradigm from here on in.

If you add up first preferences for SF, Lab, Green, SDs and Solidarity/PBP you're at 42 percent. And that's without even including left leaning indos.

BarryD2 · 10-02-2020 11:21AM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

It's funny how unrealistic manifestos and people voting for the party rather than the person are suddenly terrible things now that they're benefiting SF.

FF and FG have been using the exact same tactics for years.

That's true but voters know roughly what they'll get in terms of FF/FG/Lab etc. Many have now been persuaded into taking a complete punt, buying a pig in a poke.

road_high · 10-02-2020 11:21AM

rob316 wrote: »

The big 2 have only 45% of the vote combined, that's the game changer for me out of all these stats. There was a time they had 80%.
Its quite clear FG are not the party we want in power going off the last 2 elections.

FG didn’t even have a mandate in 2016. Time to step aside and allow those that “want change “ implement their mandates

Birdie Num Num · 10-02-2020 11:21AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The exit poll is out in 90 minutes for the Irish Times and RTE.

Should be fairly accurate of the vote going on previous exit polls.

Hey Kermit,

You normally start weather threads. ...Gloomy day out there today.

Jinglejangle69 · 10-02-2020 11:21AM

lawred2 wrote: »

So a party makes promises that don't get/never will be/can't be fulfilled

That's new... No party has ever been guilty of that before...

Ahem cough abolish USC.. cough 50k top rate band.. make working pay etc etc etc

What is the point of picking apart these election promises? You're picking apart a fiction. Just wasted energy.

Simplest thing SF could do in government is to implement vacant land/property taxes.

I think people are sick of the lies and want honesty for once.

Are you telling me SF will break their promises and the people will accept it?

is_that_so · 10-02-2020 11:22AM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Of course.
But that is moot with both FF and FG ruling any talks out
(I know MM is mouthing something up his sleeve but that is where we are right now)

In FG's case it's a fixed position. I think MM is trying to appear statesmanlike, knowing full well it won't fly.

limnam · 10-02-2020 11:22AM

Boggles wrote: »

Jesus that is some desperate sugar coating

Below 45% for both parties is not a high %.

It's an absolute seismic shift in Irish politics.

They just got battered, I can't imagine either of them wanting to enter into a supply and confidence agreement with anyone.

There is no reward from it.

Just polinting it out. Not sugar coating anything. I'm just surpised it's so high

45% is high. It's almost half a country!

ednwireland · 10-02-2020 11:23AM

Boggles wrote: »

What?

The onus is on SF to form a government with 2 parties who have categorically ruled out forming a government with them?

Are you actually reading what you are typing or have you lemon juice in your eyes?

thats exactly what they need to do if they are on 35+ seats i expect SF to go and negotiate with FF And yes FG and put together proposals, coalition gov. is about compromise which i dont think SF do very well.

so i expect a couple of months of negoatiations, SF pull out saying they wont compromise and another election (i hope im wrong and they come in and get health and housing)

Idbatterim · 10-02-2020 11:25AM

limnam wrote: »

It looks like there's a high % that don't want change.

They're happy with what FF/FG are doing.

Older people are more conservative. They likely own their own homes, and other than the health situation, this country looks after them, very, very well!

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2020 11:25AM

markodaly wrote: »

That is all lovely but SF has repeatedly told us that they will go into power with anyone. You say different....
Do you have some inside track being a non SF member and all

SF have repeatedly said they will go into power if they can negotiate an acceptable programme of government.

I know you want to ignore that. But then you would because what FF and FG are looking for is a whipping boy or girl and that SF are not willing to be that, scares the bejaysus out of them and you.

So we'll have to listen to you trying to goad I suppose. Carry on.

KrustyUCC · 10-02-2020 11:25AM

SF will pull any government after a year in the hope of running more candidates the next time around

Take Cork North West for example

Lots of spoiled votes with Sinn Fein written on them

Can see Liadh Ni Riada running there next time out and taking one the third seat

1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF next time round

Idbatterim · 10-02-2020 11:26AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

And they have been punished.

Its done, can we move on from the usual bashing parties and talk about the new government.

I mean in a politcally pereolous position! This next government will be very interesting, its not one for spineless muppets who arent prepared to make decisions!

Idbatterim · 10-02-2020 11:27AM

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Its interesting though ..while one third of people voted for a leftist party ...two thirds voted for centre right parties.

I see irish politics forming that kind of paradigm from here on in.

centre right parties? you mean centre left ? as its FFG you are talking about ! Varadkar just got in by the skin of his teeth, that is a bloody disaster! It damages FG , I think the country needs a FG , just not the weak farce that this one was

Boggles · 10-02-2020 11:28AM

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Greens are eco leftest. I voted for them.

But they are a tiny improbable tiny party ..i knew that.

All the leftest parties stand little chance of anything here.

They are too small. Which means they are kind of useless.

Whether you think they are useless are not has nothing to with your assertion.

2/3 thirds do not vote for center right parties or candidates.

I imagine it is probably split 50/50 give or take.

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2020 11:28AM

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

That is the same with every party.

Exactly. that is why I said 'the party's manifesto's'.

They are all being shredded. As is ALWAYS the case.

road_high · 10-02-2020 11:29AM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

SF will pull any government after a year in the hope of running more candidates the next time around

Take Cork North West for example

Lots of spoiled votes with Sinn Fein written on them

Can see Liadh Ni Riada running there next time out and taking one the third seat

1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF next time round

Pulling down governments to get figures you wish will not be rewarded at the ballot boxes. Government isn’t a game of endless elections getting a result that suits yourself

lawred2 · 10-02-2020 11:30AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

I think people are sick of the lies and want honesty for once.

Are you telling me SF will break their promises and the people will accept it?

To be honest - I don't think they expected to be in government and if I was a SF strategist I'd be telling them that it's too soon.

Let FF and FG at it and be in opposition. They'll have FF/FG dancing to their tune anyway.

trellheim · 10-02-2020 11:32AM

SF will pull any government after a year in the hope of running more candidates the next time around

And, in addition, they have form in pulling out and having to be forced back in ( see NI Assembly) .

As I said above, if RHI and and Irish Language act was the low threshold that kept them out last time, I weep for them under FF/SF or is it a different SF ?

So why would FF bother - plenty of people to tell MM that . MLMcD would need to make a 'thick-or-thin' promise, i.e there is NO condition for staying the lifetime of the Government - youre in till all the others no-confidence it.

KrustyUCC · 10-02-2020 11:33AM

road_high wrote: »

Pulling down governments to get figures you wish will not be rewarded at the ballot boxes. Government isn’t a game of endless elections getting a result that suits yourself

It's a gamble alright but lets see if SF are serious about wanting to be in Government in the first place

Still I think they will want another election ASAP

sondagefaux · 10-02-2020 11:34AM

limnam wrote: »

Just polinting it out. Not sugar coating anything. I'm just surpised it's so high

45% is high. It's almost half a country!

The combined FF/FG share of 1st preference votes rarely fell below 75%, and was usually in the 80s, prior to FF's collapse after they presided over Ireland needing an international bailout.

In all general elections since then, FF have never recovered to the days when they regularly got 1st preferences in the 40s.

Both of the, for now at least, former leading political parties have been severely damaged from the political fall out over the economic crash.

Combined with social changes, it seems that the days of their joint hegemony may be over.

Although, it's early days yet...

road_high · 10-02-2020 11:34AM

lawred2 wrote: »

To be honest - I don't think they expected to be in government and if I was a SF strategist I'd be telling them that it's too soon.

Let FF and FG at it and be in opposition. They'll have FF/FG dancing to their tune anyway.

Ffs we need a government not an endless game of sf electoral bingo

lawred2 · 10-02-2020 11:35AM

road_high wrote: »

Ffs we need a government not an endless game of sf electoral bingo

Wtf?

Plumbthedepths · 10-02-2020 11:36AM

road_high wrote: »

Hear hear. Tired of hearing the excuses and yesterday’s battles. Sf have a clear mandate to govern on a wave of change- the hard work begins, not more expensive elections to get a more suited outcome. Saturday is the will of the people

Based on the polls FF and FG will have a slightly larger number of seats than SF, so how exactly will SF form the next government?

ThunbergsAreGo · 10-02-2020 11:36AM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

It's a gamble alright but lets see if SF are serious about wanting to be in Government in the first place

Still I think they will want another election ASAP

They ran on a change ticket. They had a max of 41 seats, how did they expect to enact change without a coalition with one of the traditionally bigger parties?

I assume all their voters were aware of this and did not vote an opposition of "change"

It's a massive opportunity for them

road_high · 10-02-2020 11:38AM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

It's a gamble alright but lets see if SF are serious about wanting to be in Government in the first place

Still I think they will want another election ASAP

I’m sure they do but Saturday was about electing a government unfortunately. We need a government

KrustyUCC · 10-02-2020 11:39AM

It's easy to say you want 'change' and to be in government

Different when you actually need to form a government and will need to compromise on your change platform

JP Liz V1 · 10-02-2020 11:39AM

South West Cork no FG elected but the couple (FF and SD) did

KrustyUCC · 10-02-2020 11:41AM

road_high wrote: »

I’m sure they do but Saturday was about electing a government unfortunately. We need a government

Stability wise FF and FG government with Greens and a few Independents prob the best but then that's giving SF the only opposition

Hard one to call as I think SF will pull down any FF/SF government quite quickly

That was the big talking point in Mallow yesterday

Idbatterim · 10-02-2020 11:42AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Based on the polls FF and FG will have a slightly larger number of seats than SF, so how exactly will SF form the next government?

Even having voted SF, I think I would prefer the more cautious approach of FFG, but one that actually now moves with serious urgency , if they dont , SF will win the most amount of seats, comfortably...

I dont regret voting SF, FFG have brought this about. They needed a serious kick up the hole, if they get a last chance, they better bloody take it! Ideally I would also like a new centre right party to form, a new progressive party, that would give us options across the board, that isnt defined by civil war politics and gombeens and incompetent fools across the board!

GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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