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Mayo constituency GE2020

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Comments

  • #512
    irishgeo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,720 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    Cosmo Kramer wrote: »
    Is there a possibility of ending up with no Castlebar TD here? If Mulherin can get in front of Dillon, Dillon's transfers might take her home over Chambers. When, if ever, did Castlebar not have at least one TD, it has generally had two over the years?

    with the westport -castlebar axis its unlikely the votes will go to ballina. michelle has failed to win a seat before


  • #513
    whitey1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭whitey1


    irishgeo wrote: »
    with the westport -castlebar axis its unlikely the votes will go to ballina. michelle has failed to win a seat before

    Don’t know what it’s worth but didn’t Dillon and his brother both work at Allergan in Westport


  • #514
    PARlance
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,077 ✭✭✭✭PARlance


    whitey1 wrote: »
    Don’t know what it’s worth but didn’t Dillon and his brother both work at Allergan in Westport

    He does but he could have done a lot more in terms of cosying up to Ring. I would expect him to go ahead of Mulherin after Ring and Conway's surplus.


  • #515
    irishgeo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,720 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    ring on the offensive on rte.


  • #516
    Stewball
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 800 ✭✭✭Stewball


    Ringer making an absolute show of himself on RTE.


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  • #517
    whitey1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭whitey1


    Stewball wrote: »
    Ringer making an absolute show of himself on RTE.


    LOL-he’ll back from no one


  • #518
    morebabies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 539 ✭✭✭morebabies


    Stewball wrote: »
    Ringer making an absolute show of himself on RTE.

    What did he say, I missed it.


  • #519
    irishgeo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,720 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    morebabies wrote: »
    What did he say, I missed it.

    Attacked sinn fein. Said I hope they want to go into government not like last time or like the north or Westminster.


  • #520
    irishgeo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,720 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    1st count done . Ring and Conway walsh elected.

    2nd count redistribution of ring votes.

    This is the one to watch.I think it will decide who gets the last seat.


  • #521
    Hercule Poirot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,231 ✭✭✭Hercule Poirot


    irishgeo wrote: »
    1st count done . Ring and Conway walsh elected.

    2nd count redistribution of ring votes.

    This is the one to watch.I think it will decide who gets the last seat.

    Will they stop now and go again tomorrow or will they fire the surplus through this evening?


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  • #522
    TopTec
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,166 ✭✭✭TopTec


    Will the quota re-allocations be shown on the tally spreadsheet highlighted earlier? or is there another one can follow as the votes are dealt with?


    TT


  • #523
    TopTec
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,166 ✭✭✭TopTec


    t was reported earlier that they have to get this finished tonight as there is a big C & W gig tomorrow with 2,000 tickets sold.
    TT


  • #524
    Dudda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,541 ✭✭✭Dudda


    TopTec wrote: »
    Will the quota re-allocations be shown on the tally spreadsheet highlighted earlier? or is there another one can follow as the votes are dealt with?


    TT

    No generally only the first count is tallyed. These should be fairly quick though. Only 2000 odd votes to count


    I did a quick compare between the tally and first count. The tally is someone with a clipboard trying to count the votes as they're coming out of the boxes so is never 100% but usually fairly close.

    Change in vote between Tally and First Count

    Clearry FF -95
    Chambers FF -21
    Conway SF - 170
    Dillon FG -80
    Lawless AON + 220
    McHugh -113
    Mulherin -40
    Ring -273


    Big takeaway is even more Lawless votes to distribute. Where are all these going to go?


  • #525
    essgee268
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 180 ✭✭essgee268


    These should be fairly quick though. Only 2000 odd votes to count

    ?????????????????


  • #526
    seligehgit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    Dudda wrote: »
    No generally only the first count is tallyed. These should be fairly quick though. Only 2000 odd votes to count


    I did a quick compare between the tally and first count. The tally is someone with a clipboard trying to count the votes as they're coming out of the boxes so is never 100% but usually fairly close.

    Change in vote between Tally and First Count

    Clearry FF -95
    Chambers FF -21
    Conway SF - 170
    Dillon FG -80
    Lawless AON + 220
    McHugh -113
    Mulherin -40
    Ring -273


    Big takeaway is even more Lawless votes to distribute. Where are all these going to go?

    Care to have a stab at calling the last seat Dudda?


  • #527
    whitey1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭whitey1


    This PR thing is very confusing.

    If Calleary hits the quota, then his surplus would really help Chambers?

    If he doesn’t hit the quota Chambers will have to rely on the redistribution of the votes of the eliminated candidates, which would make it much more difficult for her?


  • #528
    seligehgit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    whitey1 wrote: »
    This PR thing is very confusing.

    If Calleary hits the quota, then his surplus would really help Chambers?

    If he doesn’t hit the quota Chambers will have to rely on the redistribution of the votes of the eliminated candidates, which would make it much more difficult for her?


    That's pretty much it.

    I can't imagine he'll have much in the way of a surplus.

    Uphill task for Lisa Chambers.


    Although Alan Dillon lies a few hundred votes behind Michelle Mulherin he'll probably benefit more from Michael Ring's surplus.

    But where do Rose Conway Walsh's surplus votes go and those of the eliminated candidates?

    That's the fascinating imponderable!


  • #529
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,956 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Dudda wrote: »

    Big takeaway is even more Lawless votes to distribute. Where are all these going to go?
    seligehgit wrote: »
    T

    But where do Rose Conway Walsh's surplus votes go

    Both of these more to FF than FG surely?


  • #530
    Coillte_Bhoy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭Coillte_Bhoy


    irishgeo wrote: »
    1st count done . Ring and Conway walsh elected.

    2nd count redistribution of ring votes.

    This is the one to watch.I think it will decide who gets the last seat.

    Will Count 2 not distribute both surpluses? :confused:


  • #531
    TopTec
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,166 ✭✭✭TopTec


    From Western people


    Dara Calleary (FF): 9,377 (+214) Lisa Chambers (FF): 6,647 (+274) Joe Daly (PBP): 751 (+30) Grainne De Barra (NP): 89 (+5) Alan Dillon (FG): 5,823 +625 Sean Forkin (NP): 63 (+4)


    Paul Lawless 2,662 (+88) Gerry Loftus (NP): 595 (+21) Stephen Manning (NP): 68 (+3) Saoirse McHugh (GP): 4,321 (+144) Michelle Mulherin (FG): 5,929 (+494) Daithí Ó Fallamháin (IFP): 252 (+6) Kamal Uddin (LP): 272 (+17)


    TT


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  • #532
    naughto
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,418 ✭✭✭naughto


    No one elected on 2nd count


  • #533
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,956 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Uddin's trees don't seem to done the trick with the voters. Mayo voters won't be bribed!:P


  • #534
    Raisins
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 522 ✭✭✭Raisins


    Is that second count both surpluses?


  • #535
    seligehgit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Both of these more to FF than FG surely?

    Walsh's yes,not idea re Lawless.

    I'm guessing his surplus to a party considered more socially conservative ie Fianna Fail.

    I think you're right!


  • #536
    irishgeo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,720 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    Raisins wrote: »
    Is that second count both surpluses?

    Nope RCW now and then its eliminations.


  • #537
    seligehgit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »
    Will Count 2 not distribute both surpluses? :confused:

    Yes


  • #538
    seligehgit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    irishgeo wrote: »
    Nope RCW now and then its eliminations.

    Mea culpa.


  • #539
    Coillte_Bhoy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭Coillte_Bhoy


    Would have thought Dillon would have benefited more from Ring's transfers vis a vis Mulherin?


  • #540
    Coillte_Bhoy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭Coillte_Bhoy


    seligehgit wrote: »
    Yes

    Is it not RCW's surplus is Count 3


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  • #541
    seligehgit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »
    Would have thought Dillon would have benefited more from Ring's transfers vis a vis Mulherin?

    Irishgeo mentioned only RCW surplus and eliminations distributed thus far.


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