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Mayo constituency GE2020

Loafing Oaf

Which, according to Paddy Power, is 2/9 to take place this year.:)

Anyone got any inside info?

Is Michael Ring planning to run again? If so, he's presumably a dead cert as always. As are Calleary and Chambers I'd say. After that it's a tougher call but I reckon Michelle Mulherin has a decent shot at a comeback, given the conservatism of the electorate...

Apologies to the mods if it's 'too soon' to be starting this conversation.

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irishgeo

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Is there a possibility of ending up with no Castlebar TD here? If Mulherin can get in front of Dillon, Dillon's transfers might take her home over Chambers. When, if ever, did Castlebar not have at least one TD, it has generally had two over the years?

with the westport -castlebar axis its unlikely the votes will go to ballina. michelle has failed to win a seat before

whitey1

irishgeo wrote: »

with the westport -castlebar axis its unlikely the votes will go to ballina. michelle has failed to win a seat before

Don’t know what it’s worth but didn’t Dillon and his brother both work at Allergan in Westport

PARlance

whitey1 wrote: »

Don’t know what it’s worth but didn’t Dillon and his brother both work at Allergan in Westport

He does but he could have done a lot more in terms of cosying up to Ring. I would expect him to go ahead of Mulherin after Ring and Conway's surplus.

irishgeo

ring on the offensive on rte.

Stewball

Ringer making an absolute show of himself on RTE.

whitey1

Stewball wrote: »

Ringer making an absolute show of himself on RTE.

LOL-he’ll back from no one

morebabies

Stewball wrote: »

Ringer making an absolute show of himself on RTE.

What did he say, I missed it.

irishgeo

morebabies wrote: »

What did he say, I missed it.

Attacked sinn fein. Said I hope they want to go into government not like last time or like the north or Westminster.

irishgeo

1st count done . Ring and Conway walsh elected.

2nd count redistribution of ring votes.

This is the one to watch.I think it will decide who gets the last seat.

Hercule Poirot

irishgeo wrote: »

1st count done . Ring and Conway walsh elected.

2nd count redistribution of ring votes.

This is the one to watch.I think it will decide who gets the last seat.

Will they stop now and go again tomorrow or will they fire the surplus through this evening?

TopTec

Will the quota re-allocations be shown on the tally spreadsheet highlighted earlier? or is there another one can follow as the votes are dealt with?

TT

TopTec

t was reported earlier that they have to get this finished tonight as there is a big C & W gig tomorrow with 2,000 tickets sold.
TT

Dudda

TopTec wrote: »

Will the quota re-allocations be shown on the tally spreadsheet highlighted earlier? or is there another one can follow as the votes are dealt with?

TT

No generally only the first count is tallyed. These should be fairly quick though. Only 2000 odd votes to count

I did a quick compare between the tally and first count. The tally is someone with a clipboard trying to count the votes as they're coming out of the boxes so is never 100% but usually fairly close.

Change in vote between Tally and First Count

Clearry FF -95
Chambers FF -21
Conway SF - 170
Dillon FG -80
Lawless AON + 220
McHugh -113
Mulherin -40
Ring -273

Big takeaway is even more Lawless votes to distribute. Where are all these going to go?

essgee268

These should be fairly quick though. Only 2000 odd votes to count

?????????????????

seligehgit

Dudda wrote: »

No generally only the first count is tallyed. These should be fairly quick though. Only 2000 odd votes to count

I did a quick compare between the tally and first count. The tally is someone with a clipboard trying to count the votes as they're coming out of the boxes so is never 100% but usually fairly close.

Change in vote between Tally and First Count

Clearry FF -95
Chambers FF -21
Conway SF - 170
Dillon FG -80
Lawless AON + 220
McHugh -113
Mulherin -40
Ring -273

Big takeaway is even more Lawless votes to distribute. Where are all these going to go?

Care to have a stab at calling the last seat Dudda?

whitey1

This PR thing is very confusing.

If Calleary hits the quota, then his surplus would really help Chambers?

If he doesn’t hit the quota Chambers will have to rely on the redistribution of the votes of the eliminated candidates, which would make it much more difficult for her?

seligehgit

whitey1 wrote: »

This PR thing is very confusing.

If Calleary hits the quota, then his surplus would really help Chambers?

If he doesn’t hit the quota Chambers will have to rely on the redistribution of the votes of the eliminated candidates, which would make it much more difficult for her?

That's pretty much it.

I can't imagine he'll have much in the way of a surplus.

Uphill task for Lisa Chambers.

Although Alan Dillon lies a few hundred votes behind Michelle Mulherin he'll probably benefit more from Michael Ring's surplus.

But where do Rose Conway Walsh's surplus votes go and those of the eliminated candidates?

That's the fascinating imponderable!

Loafing Oaf

Dudda wrote: »

Big takeaway is even more Lawless votes to distribute. Where are all these going to go?

seligehgit wrote: »

T

But where do Rose Conway Walsh's surplus votes go

Both of these more to FF than FG surely?

Coillte_Bhoy

irishgeo wrote: »

1st count done . Ring and Conway walsh elected.

2nd count redistribution of ring votes.

This is the one to watch.I think it will decide who gets the last seat.

Will Count 2 not distribute both surpluses?

TopTec

From Western people

Dara Calleary (FF): 9,377 (+214) Lisa Chambers (FF): 6,647 (+274) Joe Daly (PBP): 751 (+30) Grainne De Barra (NP): 89 (+5) Alan Dillon (FG): 5,823 +625 Sean Forkin (NP): 63 (+4)

Paul Lawless 2,662 (+88) Gerry Loftus (NP): 595 (+21) Stephen Manning (NP): 68 (+3) Saoirse McHugh (GP): 4,321 (+144) Michelle Mulherin (FG): 5,929 (+494) Daithí Ó Fallamháin (IFP): 252 (+6) Kamal Uddin (LP): 272 (+17)

TT