Could Sinn Fein actually run a country ?

Loafing Oaf · 08-02-2020 08:42PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Agreed, and then we'll have a election during the Summer.

Well this is the thing. Does an innately cautious guy like Martin try to put together such a precarious arrangement with likely a wafer-thin majority? Or does he go for an unsatisfactory but probably stable deal with FG?

Plumbthedepths · 08-02-2020 08:56PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well this is the thing. Does an innately cautious guy like Martin try to put together such a precarious arrangement with likely a wafer-thin majority? Or does he go for an unsatisfactory but probably stable deal with FG?

His last shot at becoming Taoiseach I'm guessing he'd like it to last longer than 6 months.

Loafing Oaf · 08-02-2020 09:02PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

His last shot at becoming Taoiseach I'm guessing he'd like it to last longer than 6 months.

He seems to have softened his line on FG in the last week or so. Obviously to make it clear he regards SF as the real bad guys, but maybe also because he is leaning towards another 'big 2 carve-up'...

jimmycrackcorm · 08-02-2020 09:35PM

smurgen wrote: »

Tell me has fine Gael or FF done anything to grow domestic businesses at all? Has any contingency work been done at all to diversify our labor market in case the multinationals go quiet again or do we all have to emigrate again when disaster strikes?

Yes. I've worked in four small companies that have been partially funded by enterprise Ireland.

James Brown · 08-02-2020 10:19PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Just curious roughly what is your income cohort? As according to Leo 47k is the average wage even though median wage is a truer metric but quite less than the average and far more representative of the population.

That'd be the billionaires.
Ireland top 5 in billionaires per capita.
And working people need state aid....
Worse elsewhere of course.

maccored · 08-02-2020 10:45PM

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Yes. I've worked in four small companies that have been partially funded by enterprise Ireland.

enterprise boards have been around a lot longer than the recent government

Loafing Oaf · 08-02-2020 11:11PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Highly unlikely IMO. Martin's first choice is a 'soft left' coalition with Labour, Greens etc. If the numbers are not there for that there's a 'confidence and supply' offer from FG on the table. Can't envisage the circumstances where he would be going anywhere near SF...

Well that first choice is looking pretty tenuous based on the exit poll

digzy · 08-02-2020 11:14PM

Op

They’ve ran a terrorist army for a few years anyway !!

FrancieBrady · 08-02-2020 11:20PM

Did any of the pundits hazard a guess at seat numbers?

shenanagans · 08-02-2020 11:36PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Did any of the pundits hazard a guess at seat numbers?

No. Other than to say that FG have 2 TDs in many constituencies...... they'll lose those 2nd seats now...

Mortelaro · 08-02-2020 11:42PM

shenanagans wrote: »

No. Other than to say that FG have 2 TDs in many constituencies...... they'll lose those 2nd seats now...

What They actually said.. was that FF and FG have too many candidates and that 2 T.d's in the same party could be fighting each other for the one seat

shenanagans · 08-02-2020 11:45PM

Mortelaro wrote: »

What They actually said.. was that FF and FG have too many candidates and that 2 T.d's in the same party could be fighting each other for the one seat

FF don't have many constituencies with 2 TDs.......but FG do.

They also said that FF have played the best strategy with running candidates and will likely come out with the most seats.

Time will tell.

FrancieBrady · 09-02-2020 12:04AM

Philip B Hayes just tweeted this, SF's percentages since he started covering elections.

‘92: 1.6%
‘97: 2.5%
‘02: 6.5%
‘07: 6.9%
‘11: 9.9%
‘16: 13.8%
‘20: 22.3% (exit poll)

tabby aspreme · 09-02-2020 12:17AM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

As long as he doesn't spend two years over in the EU.

Tis a she, not a he

Edgware · 09-02-2020 12:17AM

shenanagans wrote: »

FF don't have many constituencies with 2 TDs.......but FG do.

They also said that FF have played the best strategy with running candidates and will likely come out with the most seats.

Time will tell.

Great fun ahead

Grab All Association · 09-02-2020 12:22AM

shenanagans wrote: »

FF don't have many constituencies with 2 TDs.......but FG do.

They also said that FF have played the best strategy with running candidates and will likely come out with the most seats.

Time will tell.

FF have 3 candidates in Tipperary which could gain them 0 if the vote splits

For certain
Lowry to top poll
Mattie next
Kelly (Cahill would normally take this spot but the FF 3 candidate strategy may backfire here)

It’ll be a battle for the next 2. With that exit poll you can’t write off Browne of SF could possibly do it which would be a first for Tipperary in recent times. It’s literally open for anyone.

Mortelaro · 09-02-2020 12:32AM

shenanagans wrote: »

FF don't have many constituencies with 2 TDs.......but FG do.

They also said that FF have played the best strategy with running candidates and will likely come out with the most seats.

Time will tell.

FF have a lot with 2
At least half their T.d's share constituencies eg Wexford,Wicklow,Carlow Kilkenny, cork northwest kildare North,sligo Leitrim,Laois Offaly,Donegal ,cork south central, cork north central,cavan Monaghan

The vast majority of the SF surplus vote will go to other left parties but what little is left after that will mostly go to FF alright
I wouldn't want to be relying on it though

Tomorrow will be fascinating for election geeks

shenanagans · 09-02-2020 12:40AM

Grab All Association wrote: »

FF have 3 candidates in Tipperary which could gain them 0 if the vote splits

For certain
Lowry to top poll
Mattie next
Kelly (Cahill would normally take this spot but the FF 3 candidate strategy may backfire here)

It’ll be a battle for the next 2. With that exit poll you can’t write off Browne of SF could possibly do it which would be a first for Tipperary in recent times. It’s literally open for anyone.

I'd imagine FG will lose seats in Mayo and Galway west. FF could lose seats in Donegal and Mayo. But FG have a lot of constituencies in Dublin and commuter counties with 2 TDs.....so Regina Doherty, Eoghan Murphy etc are in trouble.

We'll have a better understanding in a couple of days...

bladespin · 09-02-2020 02:12PM

Well that escalated dramatically, biggest political party in the country now from the looks of it.

How did Fine Gael get it so wrong????

Boggles · 09-02-2020 02:24PM

bladespin wrote: »

Well that escalated dramatically, biggest political party in the country now from the looks of it.

How did Fine Gael get it so wrong????

To quote a senior party rep.

"Those D4 boys fúckéd it up again".

friendlyfun · 09-02-2020 03:34PM

Wonder will FF or FG change their approach? Clearly the excluding them completely will further destroy their credibility

FrancieBrady · 09-02-2020 03:39PM

Front bench FF saying a FF SF government is inevitable and Mark McSharry refusing to be drawn on it.

Wind is going out of the Never Never sails.

corks finest · 09-02-2020 03:39PM

handlemaster wrote: »

We have a party here that's core voter is lower income. With that the policies are driven I.e. the richer middle class will pay for everything and the taxes will continue to tumble in. Let's look at northern Ireland 21 years under their control. Last year the UK gave 10 billion in prop up money. That's 10 billion for 1.5million people approx, every year the British public pay for Northern Ireland. Could Sinn fein actually manage a much larger country with a different majority tax payer ? While we all have a choice on who we vote for it's a case of careful what you want , there are no free lunches

Well FG couldn't, FF didnt

is_that_so · 09-02-2020 03:39PM

friendlyfun wrote: »

Wonder will FF or FG change their approach? Clearly the excluding them completely will further destroy their credibility

FG can say no as their voters would go along with.

Cheerful Spring2 · 09-02-2020 03:51PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Front bench FF saying a FF SF government is inevitable and Mark McSharry refusing to be drawn on it.

Wind is going out of the Never Never sails.

Best option. Fine Gael term is up.
I just can't see a Sinn Fein+ FG ministry would work?

FF + Sinn Fein can function collectively to solve housing and health problems.

tayto lover · 09-02-2020 04:06PM

I said it before and I’ll say it again.
FF will split if they continue to rule out sharing power with SF.
Many of them want to do it.
They were made for each other.

FrancieBrady · 09-02-2020 04:11PM

tayto lover wrote: »

I said it before and I’ll say it again.
FF will split if they continue to rule out sharing power with SF.
Many of them want to do it.
They were made for each other.

By tonight they'll be jumping ship, wait and see. I said the same as you all along.

How credible is SF trying to assemble a left alliance, I wonder?

Shefwedfan · 09-02-2020 04:25PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Don't see why it should if they are top dogs. My sense is FF grassroots would vastly prefer a minority FF government propped up by FG than any sort of deal with SF...

FF supporters dont want to hold up FG anymore

They have struggle in this election to free themselves from the bad press FG are getting

FG are hoping FF will jump on bandwagon with them, one of them on Virgin already saying it.

If FF had any sense they would run a mile and jump in with SF

jmayo · 09-02-2020 04:31PM

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

Best option. Fine Gael term is up.
I just can't see a Sinn Fein+ FG ministry would work?

FF + Sinn Fein can function collectively to solve housing and health problems.

Totally deluded to believe that they can solve the health problems.

Neither will make the tough decisions to gut the HSE, because both are populist And SF in the extreme.

AFAIK per capita we have one of the best funded health service in Europe.
Yet it is a fooking mess and throwing even more of taxpayers money at it is not going to fix it.
And yes whoever comes in are stuck with the NCH mess created by FG and previously to some degree by ff.
That alone is going to screw the rest of the HSE and Dept of Health spending for years.

Housing is solved by building more houses and building upwards in Dublin.

is_that_so · 09-02-2020 04:39PM

tayto lover wrote: »

I said it before and I’ll say it again.
FF will split if they continue to rule out sharing power with SF.
Many of them want to do it.
They were made for each other.

If they split they'll be no use to any government on numbers!

Could Sinn Fein actually run a country ?

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